Complete speculation here. But an approach worth discussing…
Consider the key factors that produce a top-tier, consistently success college football program…think Top-20 programs. Now - Think about which of those factors are “actionable”. here’s my list
1. Head Coach;
2. Coordinators
3. Facility Quality and Appeal
4. Exceptional (well above the avg) position coaches.
5. Cold hard NIL dollars being utilized to sign top tier recruits / transfers. (This ultimately becomes the most directly influential factor in my opinion)
So, just consider the costs of securing the following:
1. A Top-Tier HC. Lets face it… This is Pitt. it isn’t USC. So you’ll have to outspend the market to land one (if Nard ain’t it). Est cost: $8-12 mil. let’s not focus on duration or guaranteed $.
2. A Top OC - $4m. Sounds like a ton. Ik…. Soooooooo above market. WHO GIVES A ****. This is college football, it comes down to your offense if NARD is HC. Regardless, you need an exceptional OC. Recruits #1 goal at all times is to make the NFL. They want to learn from the best to be the best.
3. This matters. It’s much of the experience you ought not be cheap on. I don’t have a good grasp of the scale of the spend but let’s just assume we’d have to spend on average $10m more than average programs per annum.
4. Exceptional Position Coaches. These are important. Brian Marion. Charlie Partidge. You know the type: $ 4 mil
5. NIL Dollars. I believe Pitt can’t straight donate to an investment firm or whatever vehicle NIL payments are made through. But they can certainly suggest to a donor who planned to donate to the actual university, to consider the 412 alliance, etc, etc. $20 mil
… for those keeping score at home. That’s $50m in aggregate cash outlay.
Now what does that provide you:
1. A well coached tream;
2. High quality talent on your roster;
3. Frequent Competive Seasons
4. Regional Public Interest
5. Improved national visibility
—-
I’m hoping you are noticing the obvious - there is a fly wheel effect - each result this spend provides you as a university has an amplified result on the others. It snowballs.
So, back to financial returns.
Say this approach takes 5 years. And you lose $20m for each of those 5, you are in the hole $100m. So what nerds this is slush fund university money. Trust me….. they can find it when they stop their narrow thinking.
This would create a program that after 5-7 years would be established, and would surely see a financial uptick… whether it’s sponsorship revenue, increase ticket sales, or viewership - this is where the real power is - this is going to determine their 2027 -2050 future. Bla Bla GOR whatever, let’s meet in the middle and assume that’s when things shuffle. Being on the right side of that could easily be $20-30m more per annum on tv rev share. Say $20 over $20 years. That’s $400m by my math.
What was our outlay? $100m
Hmmm… I don’t need to run an IRR in excel to know this makes sense
Consider the key factors that produce a top-tier, consistently success college football program…think Top-20 programs. Now - Think about which of those factors are “actionable”. here’s my list
1. Head Coach;
2. Coordinators
3. Facility Quality and Appeal
4. Exceptional (well above the avg) position coaches.
5. Cold hard NIL dollars being utilized to sign top tier recruits / transfers. (This ultimately becomes the most directly influential factor in my opinion)
So, just consider the costs of securing the following:
1. A Top-Tier HC. Lets face it… This is Pitt. it isn’t USC. So you’ll have to outspend the market to land one (if Nard ain’t it). Est cost: $8-12 mil. let’s not focus on duration or guaranteed $.
2. A Top OC - $4m. Sounds like a ton. Ik…. Soooooooo above market. WHO GIVES A ****. This is college football, it comes down to your offense if NARD is HC. Regardless, you need an exceptional OC. Recruits #1 goal at all times is to make the NFL. They want to learn from the best to be the best.
3. This matters. It’s much of the experience you ought not be cheap on. I don’t have a good grasp of the scale of the spend but let’s just assume we’d have to spend on average $10m more than average programs per annum.
4. Exceptional Position Coaches. These are important. Brian Marion. Charlie Partidge. You know the type: $ 4 mil
5. NIL Dollars. I believe Pitt can’t straight donate to an investment firm or whatever vehicle NIL payments are made through. But they can certainly suggest to a donor who planned to donate to the actual university, to consider the 412 alliance, etc, etc. $20 mil
… for those keeping score at home. That’s $50m in aggregate cash outlay.
Now what does that provide you:
1. A well coached tream;
2. High quality talent on your roster;
3. Frequent Competive Seasons
4. Regional Public Interest
5. Improved national visibility
—-
I’m hoping you are noticing the obvious - there is a fly wheel effect - each result this spend provides you as a university has an amplified result on the others. It snowballs.
So, back to financial returns.
Say this approach takes 5 years. And you lose $20m for each of those 5, you are in the hole $100m. So what nerds this is slush fund university money. Trust me….. they can find it when they stop their narrow thinking.
This would create a program that after 5-7 years would be established, and would surely see a financial uptick… whether it’s sponsorship revenue, increase ticket sales, or viewership - this is where the real power is - this is going to determine their 2027 -2050 future. Bla Bla GOR whatever, let’s meet in the middle and assume that’s when things shuffle. Being on the right side of that could easily be $20-30m more per annum on tv rev share. Say $20 over $20 years. That’s $400m by my math.
What was our outlay? $100m
Hmmm… I don’t need to run an IRR in excel to know this makes sense
