You have to admit though that him not having delalic even in the team is an awful look, considering he realistically could be one of our top three players
Rothstein Picks Pitt 8th in ACC
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How much do you trust Rothstein. I think he has become a shell of what he once was. Especially after his Mountain West opinion of last year.
That being said Pitt at 8th is probably pretty respectable considering what we lost.
That being said Pitt at 8th is probably pretty respectable considering what we lost.
Yes--I agree to an extent. But to be fair, he has to go with the ranking lists of newcomers that are available and Delalic isn't on any of them.
As fans, we've unearthed more evidence why he could be a really good player. But one truth is that the fans of every team tend to unearth reasons why their players are better. It's the nature of fandom I suppose.
Don't get me wrong, I'm pretty excited about Delalic and agree that he could be one of our top 3 players. And if this becomes the case, I think we are a tournament team.
Do we have significant upside? Yes. Will we realize that upside? Hopefully. Given the number of unknowns, 8th is respectful.
I would say the program exceeded everyone's expectations the last 2 years. We were picked 14th and 9th the last 2 years in the preseason rankings and we ended up finishing tied for 3rd place and 4th place in the final acc standings.
Here's our top 3 returning scorers from ACC Conference play only stats last year.
Lowe- 12 points per game, ORTG 109
Leggett- 11 points per game ORTG 111
Corhen- 9.8 points per game ORTG 128
That's already a strong core with proven production at the ACC level with quality efficiency to back it up, we arent counting on 5 star freshmen or guys coming up from the midmajor ranks here. But here's the thing. We have 2 double digit ACC scorers returning that were underclassmen. It is to be expected that they are going to be better. And potentially, wayyyy better, which I think is highly likely for Lowe and likely for Corhen.
And if your telling me we are adding in another guy that is going to be better than 1 of these 3 guys, then we are going to be way better than 8th place and way better than just a tournament team. Im making no prediction on Delalic but Im hopeful he fits in somewhere in the Greg Elliot mold as a shooter. That in itself would give this team a big boost.
Elliot was a one-trick pony who couldn’t play defense. I hope and expect Delalic to be a much better all-around player.
Many
the lottery pick was based more on potential than what he did at Pitt. Many said that. So there’s that.
Obviously, but Im hoping he can match the shooting ability and the offensive power rating.
Lets assume for just a moment that....
If no player on our entire team improves at all and just does what they did last year, and Delalic matches Elliot on offense and lets just assume for just a minute that he starts at the 3. Our starting 5 potentially looks like this.
Lowe- 12 points per game, ORTG 109
Leggett- 11 points per game ORTG 111
Delalic- 10.5 points per game, ORTG 122
Guillermo 7 points per game 116 ORTG or Austin 7 points per game 119 ORTG , Ill let the board choose
Corhen- 9.8 points per game ORTG 128
Now, what is the importance of this? Well, Bub Carrington had an ORTG offensive power rating of 104 in acc conference play. Hinson was 114, and Fede, who was next to useless on offense except for dunks was 114. And last years offense finished 27th in the country overall, and 7th best in the entire country the last 10 games of the season when we were peaking when Jaland Lowe was peaking.
And our starting offense next year, on paper, with zero improvement from anyone, is already better than this past year even without Hinson being on the team because of the additions at the 3 and 5 positions.
And if that is the case and Pitt has a top 10 Nationally ranked offense in efficiency with Elite ball control, it will take a total disaster on defense and on the glass for this team to finish in 8th place and be on the bubble at best.
He was one of the best, most productive freshmen in college basketball last year. He’s got a ton of potential, but he was also just plain good at Pitt.
One of the most productive, yes.
One of the most efficient on offense, not even close.
We are going to miss his defense and rebounding far more than what he brought to the table on offense for us last year in terms of actually being a really efficient basketball player. And that is not to discredit him in anyway at all.
Statistics are a reasonable way to try and predict future outcomes. There are also things that are less measurable. For example, Hinson taking and making threes in critical moments that would get a certain percentage of division I players benched for taking them. We need someone or some of our guys to be the man in big moments the way that Hinson and Carrington were. I think we have those types of guys and some have already shown that ability, but they still have to do it next year. If that happens and past stats prove predictive of future outcomes, I think we are most likely a tournament team as long as there are not unforeseen injuries or chemistry issues.
But one of the reason why he was less efficient is that he was the guy that when things were breaking down and someone needed to get a shot off, he was the guy. And if it wasn't him it was Hinson taking (usually) a long three. Neither of those guys are here any more, and yet someone is still going to have to take those tougher, generally lower percentage shots.
Or, I guess, we can just have a lot of shot clock violations.
By the way, the Athletic had a column today on the current state of the ACC, and they included a list of each team's top 100 recruits and transfers. They had us sixth, and if you can't figure out why outsiders aren't predicting us to be higher than that:
Top 100 freshmen added: None
Top 100 transfers added: None
Top 100 freshmen added: None
Top 100 transfers added: None
Can we get to March with this team before we make these type of statements? It’s all conjecture at this point.
Well, Delalic is an unrated unknown so sholdnt be a factor in his ACC predictions. On the other hand, he should at least be listed as being on the roster. Probably not since he was likely added after Rothstein did his work.
Comparing on paper the roster turnover--
Corhen replaces Federico and gives slightly more scoring with similar rebound numbers for the same amount of playing time (about 21 minutes).
Dunn replaces Carrington. Appears to be a downgrade but difficult to compare due to Carrington's 33 minutes vs Dunn's limited bench minutes for Houston.
Delalic in theory replaces Hinson. Even if Delalic duplicates his Euro scoring stats (13.7 ppg) in ACC play he appears to be a scoring downgrade from Hinson (18.5 ppg).
Other possible newcomer contributions are unknown. Don't know what Cummings as a freshman and Kante off a knee injury will add.
Comparing on paper the roster turnover--
Corhen replaces Federico and gives slightly more scoring with similar rebound numbers for the same amount of playing time (about 21 minutes).
Dunn replaces Carrington. Appears to be a downgrade but difficult to compare due to Carrington's 33 minutes vs Dunn's limited bench minutes for Houston.
Delalic in theory replaces Hinson. Even if Delalic duplicates his Euro scoring stats (13.7 ppg) in ACC play he appears to be a scoring downgrade from Hinson (18.5 ppg).
Other possible newcomer contributions are unknown. Don't know what Cummings as a freshman and Kante off a knee injury will add.
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Bub's shot selection was in a lot of games simply not good and our head coach gave him way to much leash in terms of taking any shot he wanted. He took a ton of contested shots off the dribble from 3 with plenty of time on the shot clock. Ive talked about this constantly in the game threads from this past season.
And its the primary reason his 3 point percentage was low. If he had put more focus in the midrange where he scored it very well, his shooting number percentages would have been way better instead of jacking up bad shots from 3.
Delalic being an unknown is a bit of a stretch, actually a big stretch. He's already ranked as one of the top players in all of Europe and he played in a league that had other former ACC players on it that are now 30 year old men. His numbers support a definite impact, and maybe a major impact from both the scoring and rebounding departments. His 40 minutes stats indicate about 8 rebounds per game. Adjusting for competition, if he plays 30 minutes, he should be getting 5+ boards per game out of him at a minimum. Im not going to suggest he is going to be a top 3 player on this team, but Im also not crazy to suggest like Rothstein that a 21 year old 6'8 forward with legit stats against legit players that is highly ranked in Europe is going to redshirt.
Corhen is way better than Fede.
If Dunn replaces Carrington, then this team is not going to be anywhere near as good on offense that I would have hoped. Leggett is my starting 2 guard with either Delalic or Austin starting at 3. I think Dunn is a lot closer to the role he played at Houston which was a backup 3 and some 2 off the bench than a full time starter here, especially at the 2, when he can't shoot that well.
What we know right now is, we have 6 legit proven acc caliber players on this roster with stats and efficiency. Delalic, Cummings and Kante determine how much higher that number could be. But a again, for the 2nd time, there have been reports coming out of Pitt, both from the media and from the players, along from our head coach, that both Delalaic and Cummings look real good early on.
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Dont disagree with any of your points. I was just pointing out how a Rothstein - type would view things without the more detailed insight those close to Pitt would have. Also, I dont belive he didnt consider Delalic--just didnt even know Pitt had him on the Roster.
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With all due respect to these rankings, and this is a small little quibble, but any player that was a former top 100 high school recruit that redshirted or did not play their freshmen season for any circumstance should be included. And injury or no injury, that means Papa Kante who was ranked the following
Rivals- 90th nationally
247- 74th nationally
on3- 83rd nationally
And I am on record saying that Cummings will play like a top 50 recruit. Cummings really hurt himself in the national rankings because he missed the 4th session of the EYBL and the peach jam because of injury. And I would understand why the national media expects little to nothing from him, considering his national ranking is close to the bottom of the top 150. I think at seasons end that ranking will be laughed at the same way it was with Carrington and Lowe.
Shot at the tournament with an 8th place finish ?!
We finished FOURTH in the ACC last season and didn't get in the tourney. Pitt is not getting in the tourney unless they win the ACCT and get the auto bid.
ACC not properly appreciated by the hoops media. ACC proved them wrong in the NCAAs the last two years.
However, eighth place wont do it because that implies a W-L record around 0.500. This means only 14-17 wins total and only about 8-10 ACC wins at most.
I dont expect Pitt to finish there. I expect 20 plus wins.
However, eighth place wont do it because that implies a W-L record around 0.500. This means only 14-17 wins total and only about 8-10 ACC wins at most.
I dont expect Pitt to finish there. I expect 20 plus wins.
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The ACC is adding three teams. Plus, it's not like you have to go back into ancient history to find the last time the 8th seed in the ACC made it. Syracuse did in 2020-2021, and I might have even missed one more recent than that (not counting winning the ACCT).
If we would have won one less conference game last season we'd have finished as low as 7th (depending on how the tiebreakers shook out). So if you'd have taken away an NC State win (randomly picking a game) but added wins against Florida and Missouri, well, we very well may have made it.
Still only 20 league games so it is doubtfull added teams change anything in a positive way. Recent selection committee actions still suggest no more than 5-6 ACC teams will get NCAA bids, IMHO.
Yea. Or just didnt play that game. Or if we lost to another SEC team. We were like 7 point favorites. We weren't that good at that time and we weren't that bad at that time.
As for comparing to last season:
PG - Lowe replaces Bub. Both 1st Round PG's. I expect Sophomore Lowe to be the equal to Freshman Bub
SG - Leggett replaces Leggett
SF - Austin replaces Austin
PF - Hinson will be tough to replace, but it has to be done collectively. I expect GDG, Delalic, and Austin to get time here
C - Corhen replaces GDG/Fede
Bench
Dunn replaces Lowe
Cummings replaces Jeffress
Jorge is back
Kante - who knows
But it won't have to be more than that many for the #8 team to have a shot at getting in. We just finished ahead of Clemson in the ACC, but we didn't get in and they were comfortably in as a 6-seed.
We have a much more loaded non-conference schedule this season, so I believe that logic will hold especially true.
PG Lowe replaces Bub
SG Ish replaces Lowe
Wing Austin
Wing Delalic replaces Blake
Big Corhen replaces Fede
Bench
Dunn replaces Ish
GDG
Beebah
JDG, Papa, Amdy replaces Will
On paper, this is Capel's most talented roster imo. I think you could see Dunn, GDG and Beebah all being first subs without much falloff from the first five.
The best 5 out Lowe, Ish, Dunn, Delalic and GDG. Dunn as a 40% catch and shoot option over Austin.
Depth chart as long as we are speculating (guessing)--
PG -- Lowe, Leggett, Cummings
SG -- Leggett, Dunn, Cummings
SF -- Delalic, Dunn, G D-G
PF -- G D-G, Austin, J D-G
C -- Corhen, Kante, Ndiaye
PG -- Lowe, Leggett, Cummings
SG -- Leggett, Dunn, Cummings
SF -- Delalic, Dunn, G D-G
PF -- G D-G, Austin, J D-G
C -- Corhen, Kante, Ndiaye
Too much emphasis is going to be placed on "they lost guys from an NIT-type team." In reality, we were a Top 15 team, return some really good players, and have some good adds.
Until next winter, I think Virginia is going to be a mystery. They may be as good as some of the media types predict, or they may struggle as you suggest. I don't know. However, there is a real possibility they could be better than last year whether the record shows it or not. While the losses of Dunn and Beekman are very real hits on the defensive end, what they contributed on the offensive end of the floor may not be missed nearly as much. Beekman's assists-to-turnover ration was very good, and Virginia's ability to replace those numbers will be very telling. However, his shooting from beyond the arc wasn't that impressive. Essentially, teams didn't even have to guard Dunn away from the basket. More significantly, IMO, last year Virginia's inside game was very anemic, on both ends of the floor. The premature departures of Caffaro, Shedrick, and, especially, Traudt created problems. In earlier years, Coach Bennett would have probably redshirted Buchanan. Last year, he had to play, and he struggled at times. I am curious to see the results of an off season in the weight room. Regardless, there will be more size and more athleticism (Dunn's departure not withstanding) on next year's front line. The biggest question, in my mind, concerns perimeter scoring. Last season, if Groves wasn't producing, teams simply blanketed McKneely and Virginia really struggled. If Groves was scoring, Virginia typically won. It was almost that simple. Last summer, there were expectations of Rohde and Harris which were never realized. On paper, Virginia has added perimeter scoring with Power, Saunders, and Sharma. Even Cofie has demonstrated some ability in this area. Whether any of them can produce reliably is a huge unknown. Your observation that Virginia is a young team is very true. There are only three upperclassmen with playing experience at Virginia. However, the same could have been said of last year. The 2024 squad only had four returning active players, and just one had been a starter. Coach Bennett's schemes really depend on experience playing them (especially in the front court), and there was precious little of that last year. On paper, the 2025 edition of the 'Hoos looks more balanced that last year's team. Whether it can match the 2024 record is a huge, huge unknown. I wouldn't place a wager either way. That said, the Mount Everest they may have to climb isn't much more intimidating than the Mount Everest they faced last season.Below is a link of the comings and goings of every player on every ACC team from this offseason.
I have not done a deep dive on this yet to really look at the efficiency metrics and defensive metrics going into next year for all these teams. But there is one thing I am certain on, that Virginia has Mount Everest to climb if they are going to finish and be better than Pitt next year and be a top 5ish ACC team. Im not buying it and I fully understand how good of a coach they have. That roster is not talented and unlike most years, it is young counting on underclassmen like TJ Power who did nothing at Duke last year to carry them. And that team routinely got its doors blown off last year when Reece Beekman wasn't playing like a 1st team all acc player. And he is gone.
Rosters! The comings and goings of 2,000 Division I men's basketball players
Your guide to all the personnel changes for the top conferences and programs, including transfers, recruits and NBA draft decisions.www.espn.com
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Seems like a reasonable prediction -
At least we are starting in the middle instead of the end !
At least we are starting in the middle instead of the end !
Below is a link of the comings and goings of every player on every ACC team from this offseason.
I have not done a deep dive on this yet to really look at the efficiency metrics and defensive metrics going into next year for all these teams. But there is one thing I am certain on, that Virginia has Mount Everest to climb if they are going to finish and be better than Pitt next year and be a top 5ish ACC team. Im not buying it and I fully understand how good of a coach they have. That roster is not talented and unlike most years, it is young counting on underclassmen like TJ Power who did nothing at Duke last year to carry them. And that team routinely got its doors blown off last year when Reece Beekman wasn't playing like a 1st team all acc player. And he is gone.
Rosters! The comings and goings of 2,000 Division I men's basketball players
Your guide to all the personnel changes for the top conferences and programs, including transfers, recruits and NBA draft decisions.
Really? Because without doing a deep dive, I can easily see why someone would predict UVA to finish ahead of Pitt. For starters, Pitt hasn't finished ahead of UVA since joining the conference. So there's that.
Just curious, did you do a deep dive into TJ Power's EYBL performance? 😉
What about Bliss? Is he in the equation this year?
Unlike last off-season, when the staff seemed totally out of touch and reactionary, Bennett and company were much better prepared this year. But unfortunately, other than TJ Power, they totally whiffed on their main targets. I think they still did okay considering most of the incoming transfers being guys that weren't at the top of their board.
Getting in at 8 is unlikely but this is a wild over-correction. Are you seriously telling me Pitt would finish 2nd or 3rd in the ACC and not make the tournament? Be real. Hopefully the conference sends at least six, which seems entirely possible especially with some new likely wins for a few teams added thanks to the expanded conference footprint.
I am pretty clueless about next year's rotation. Popular opinion says that Warley will start at PG with Bliss coming off the bench, however any of Warley, Bliss, or Ames could start. IMO, the only certain starters are McKneely and Buchanan. (Hopefully, Buchanan has added some muscle/weight in the off season.) The PF could be Saunders or Cofie with Robinson subbing for Buchanan. All that leaves Power, Rohde, and Murray competing for the fifth spot. And, then there's Sharma. If he is as good as his hype, he could earn some PT, probably at Rohde's expense. None of this precludes the use of redshirts (Gertrude's injury may put him there). The bottom line is that Coach Bennett's best teams are "old" squads with most having multiple years of experience in his schemes. This will be a very young team. Eleven players will be in their first or second year in the program (and, only five will be upperclassmen with just two using their last year of eligibility). If premature attrition can be minimized, this edition of the 'Hoos could be a year away from being very good. Unlike last year, though, there appears to be better balance this year. At least, on paper that's the case. ON PAPER, there is much better front court depth, and there is the very real potential of better perimeter scoring. Virginia may lose two defensive stalwarts in Beekman and Dunn, but it should be a more difficult team to defend than last year. But, who knows? For now, it is all pure speculation.
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Lunardi has Pitt as the last team in
Men's Bracketology: Kelvin Sampson has Houston pointing toward another deep run
Is Houston underrated coming off back-to-back No. 1 seeds and four straight second-weekend appearances in the NCAA tournament?
www.espn.com
Lunardi has Pitt as the last team in
Men's Bracketology: Kelvin Sampson has Houston pointing toward another deep run
Is Houston underrated coming off back-to-back No. 1 seeds and four straight second-weekend appearances in the NCAA tournament?www.espn.com
Im worried about our schedule again. Its better to lose to good teams than go beat bad teams.
Very good synopsis. I think without question there is more frontcourt depth.
I also think it's a very safe bet to say perimeter scoring will be better. (Much better). The big downside from last year is the loss of 2 elite on ball defenders.
