Saturday Night Bubble Anaylsis (update)

[Sean Miller Fan]

14 teams for 10 spots (assuming FAU does NOT win American and Colorado DOES win P12). Eliminate 6.

23 Dayton 24-7
3-4
5-3
9-0
7-0
Best wins: SJU N, Cincy N, @ SMU, LSU N, @ Dav, @ Duq, @ St. Joe's, VCU

24 (will drop) Colorado 24-10
4-5
6-5
7-0
7-0
Wash St neutral, Wash St, Utah neutral, Utah, @ Wash, @ Ore, Ore, @ Wash, @ USC, Richmond

26 Boise St 20-10
6-6
3-4
3-1
8-0
Best wins: SMC, SDSU, @ SDSU, UNM, @ UNM, @ Nev, Col St, VCU N, San Fran

30 Indiana St 27-6
1-4
4-1
10-0
12-1
Best wins: @ Bradley, Bradley, Drake, @ Belmont, @ Northern Iowa

37 Colorado St 22-10
6-7
3-2
7-0
6-0
Best wins: Colorado, Creighton neutral, SDSU, UNM, Boise, Nevada, Utah St, Wash neutral, BC neutral

34 St. John's 20-13
4-10
6-2
3-1
7-0
Best wins: Creighton, @ Nova, Nova, Prov, SHU, Utah, North Texas, @ Butler, Butler, Xavier

43 (projected) FAU 25-7
2-2
7-3
9-1
7-2
Arizona N, A&M N, VT N, St. Bonaventure N, Loyola N, Butler N, SMU, @ North Texas

41 Pitt 22-11
4-6
5-3
6-2
7-0
@ Duke, @ UVa, @ NC St, NC St, Wake, Wake N, VT, @ BC, @ GT

32 Miss St 21-13
4-8
4-3
7-0
6-1
Ten neutral, Ten, Aub, Wash St N, NW N, North Texas "neutral site" game in Tupelo, MS, LSU N, @ LSU

46 Oklahoma 20-12
4-12
5-0
3-0
8-0
ISU, BYU, @ Cincy, Cincy, @ KSU, Prov N, Iowa N, USC N, @ OK St

42 Texas A&M 20-14
7-6
6-2
2-5
5-0
Ky neutral, Ky, Ten, ISU, @ Ohio St, @ SMU, Florida, Miss St, Miss N, @ Miss, @ UGa, LSU, Penn St N

55 Virginia 23-10
2-6
8-4
7-0
6-0
@ Clem, Fla, A&M, Wake, BC N, @ BC, VT, NC St, @ FSU, @ GT

54 Northwestern 21-11
4-7
5-3
5-0
7-1
Purdue, Dayton, Mich St, Ill, Neb, OSU, IU, @ Md, @ PSU

57 Providence 21-13
6-9
3-4
1-0
11-0
Marq, Wis, Creighton, Creighton N, @ SHU, @ Xavier, SJU, Butler, UGa N

65 SHU 20-12
5-7
4-4
2-1
9-0
UConn, Marq, SJU, @ SJU, @ Prov, @ But, But, Nova, Xavier

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Bumping

 

[Elsalvador]

Not sure why people feel Oklahoma is safely in. I don’t know.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

Not sure why people feel Oklahoma is safely in. I don’t know.

Because they were 15-3 in mid-january when these clowns start making brackets and they don't move teams around as much as they should.

 

[TFloss]

I think Indiana State and Providence are safely out. Next would be Hall and UVA/Pitt.

St. John's is getting in because of that scumbag.

 

[nycpanther98]

It's going to be close but it seems more probable that unlike last year we will be on the wrong side of it. And that would really be a shame b/c this team has what it takes to make a run.

 

[Parkview57]

I am actually starting to get ticked off about this. Silly, I know but c'mon, this team is dangerous.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Because they were 15-3 in mid-january when these clowns start making brackets and they don't move teams around as much as they should.

This applies to FAU and Dayton as well. Dayton was 24-5 and then lost to Loyola and Duquesne. Not terrible losses but then when you look at their resume, you dont see anything there. No bad losses but do you put a team in the field, who had a 93 SOS and couldn't win their league, just because they didnt have bad losses? For me, they had to win the A10 regular season. In the 8th best league, they were clearly the 3rd best team.

 

[whirlybird optio]

This applies to FAU and Dayton as well. Dayton was 24-5 and then lost to Loyola and Duquesne. Not terrible losses but then when you look at their resume, you dont see anything there. No bad losses but do you put a team in the field, who had a 93 SOS and couldn't win their league, just because they didnt have bad losses? For me, they had to win the A10 regular season. In the 8th best league, they were clearly the 3rd best team.

Oklahoma one of 5 teams without a Q2-3-4 loss.

That’s really all they have. Zero losses outside Q1

 

[Vader_Storm]

This applies to FAU and Dayton as well. Dayton was 24-5 and then lost to Loyola and Duquesne. Not terrible losses but then when you look at their resume, you dont see anything there. No bad losses but do you put a team in the field, who had a 93 SOS and couldn't win their league, just because they didnt have bad losses? For me, they had to win the A10 regular season. In the 8th best league, they were clearly the 3rd best team.

Dayton is going to get in.

They got cheated on the scheduling. They finished 3rd in the regular season standings by 1 game. And they played Loyola Chicago and Richmond both on the road in the regular season with no return home game. They have 8 Q1 and Q2 wins with a winning road record and have been ranked a lot of the year. They are a dunk to get in. Their resume literally destroys Indiana State.

 

[Elsalvador]

Do we want New Mexico to win or lose?

 

[Vader_Storm]

Do we want New Mexico to win or lose?

Lose

 

[Pitt666]

Do we want New Mexico to win or lose?

Get blown out. They are still on bubble. I honestly think both CSU and New Mexico will get left out if New Mexico loses. MWC with 5 with 7th conference Net. May seem controversial for CSU, but yeah.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Get blown out. They are still on bubble. I honestly think both CSU and New Mexico will get left out if New Mexico loses. MWC with 5 with 7th conference Net. May seem controversial for CSU, but yeah.

Honestly, I am probably putting New Mexico in regardless. As much as I hate to say it, they kinda pass the eye test. Have 2 good guards and athletic. But they are beating Quad 1 teams who look like they just came from the Y.

 

[Pitt666]

Honestly, I am probably putting New Mexico in regardless. As much as I hate to say it, they kinda pass the eye test. Have 2 good guards and athletic. But they are beating Quad 1 teams who look like they just came from the Y.

They lost to chair force at home. Average conference net is 7th. They are inflated q1 teams.

 

[docpanther26]

So it looks like as of now Palm has Pitt playing A&M in the first four.

 

[JD1976]

Temple is beating FAU midway thru the 2nd half 😬

 

[Sam Young 23]

I think that FAU loss burst Pitt bubble

 

[Vader_Storm]

I think that FAU loss burst Pitt bubble

What is going to be crazy is if Colorado loses. This has been a terrible week in terms of who actually won on the bubble.

Is the ACC seriously going to get 3 bids? 3??????


My guess is right now, the last spot, with a Colorado win, is coming down to Pitt vs Virginia. If Colorado loses, the ACC better do some soul searching in the offseason if we are bottom of the barrel with 3 lousy teams in.

 

[HailtoPitt]

Pitt will be last team in or first team out.

 

[TD_6082]

What is going to be crazy is if Colorado loses. This has been a terrible week in terms of who actually won on the bubble.

Is the ACC seriously going to get 3 bids? 3??????


My guess is right now, the last spot, with a Colorado win, is coming down to Pitt vs Virginia. If Colorado loses, the ACC better do some soul searching in the offseason if we are bottom of the barrel with 3 lousy teams in.

UNC, Duke, Clemson?

That's just one lousy team, - Clemson. UNC & Duke aren't that bad.

 

[Vader_Storm]

UNC, Duke, Clemson?

That's just one lousy team, - Clemson. UNC & Duke aren't that bad.

I meant the conference only getting 3 bids is lousy, not those 3 teams are lousy.

 

[Pitt2009]

Heather Lyke should call Providence’s AD and schedule a neutral site game for tomorrow morning. Both teams get another chance at at quad 1 win.

 

[BFo8]

Heather Lyke should call Providence’s AD and schedule a neutral site game for tomorrow morning. Both teams get another chance at at quad 1 win.

Maybe I’m remembering this wrong but didn’t St Mary’s do something similar to that a few years ago?

 

[SteelBowl70]

What is going to be crazy is if Colorado loses. This has been a terrible week in terms of who actually won on the bubble.

Is the ACC seriously going to get 3 bids? 3??????


My guess is right now, the last spot, with a Colorado win, is coming down to Pitt vs Virginia. If Colorado loses, the ACC better do some soul searching in the offseason if we are bottom of the barrel with 3 lousy teams in.

The irony is that the ACC started this madness by assigning their bid (back when conferences only had one bid) to their tourney champion Making the regular season meaningless. UCLA never had to win a conference tournament or Big 10 powers like Indiana or Purdue.

Now it’s out of control. Never have so many teams made the tourney who have almost zero chance of winning a game.

 

[TD_6082]

I meant the conference only getting 3 bids is lousy, not those 3 teams are lousy.

😂. I know what you meant. I was just being stupid.

 

[Pitt2009]

Maybe I’m remembering this wrong but didn’t St Mary’s do something similar to that a few years ago?

Yep! It didn’t work, but they played Weber State and not another bubble team.

 

[Elsalvador]

I’m sad 😔 now. Duquesne beating Dayton stole a bid. Temple beating FAU presumably stole a bid. Hopefully UNC can beat NC State and Colorado can beat Oregon. At large bids are dwindling by the hour. Whatever with Pitt’s OOC strength of schedule, they have every other metric/measure over UVA.

 

[Blair_45]

NC State up 9 early on UNC ughhh. Man this sucks so far tonight.

 

[JD1976]

The irony is that the ACC started this madness by assigning their bid (back when conferences only had one bid) to their tourney champion Making the regular season meaningless. UCLA never had to win a conference tournament or Big 10 powers like Indiana or Purdue.

Now it’s out of control. Never have so many teams made the tourney who have almost zero chance of winning a game.

It’s been this way for 40 years. You act like this is some new phenomenon 😂

And actually, the little guys are winning multiple games in the tourney nowadays. See St. Peter’s, FAU, etc.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

14 teams for 10 spots (assuming FAU does NOT win American and Colorado DOES win P12). Eliminate 4.

23 Dayton 24-7
3-4
5-3
9-0
7-0
Best wins: SJU N, Cincy N, @ SMU, LSU N, @ Dav, @ Duq, @ St. Joe's, VCU

26 Boise St 20-10
6-6
3-4
3-1
8-0
Best wins: SMC, SDSU, @ SDSU, UNM, @ UNM, @ Nev, Col St, VCU N, San Fran

30 Indiana St 27-6
1-4
4-1
10-0
12-1
Best wins: @ Bradley, Bradley, Drake, @ Belmont, @ Northern Iowa

37 Colorado St 22-10
6-7
3-2
7-0
6-0
Best wins: Colorado, Creighton neutral, SDSU, UNM, Boise, Nevada, Utah St, Wash neutral, BC neutral

34 St. John's 20-13
4-10
6-2
3-1
7-0
Best wins: Creighton, @ Nova, Nova, Prov, SHU, Utah, North Texas, @ Butler, Butler, Xavier

43 (projected) FAU 25-7
2-2
7-3
9-1
7-2
Arizona N, A&M N, VT N, St. Bonaventure N, Loyola N, Butler N, SMU, @ North Texas

41 Pitt 22-11
4-5
5-3
6-2
7-0
@ Duke, @ UVa, @ NC St, NC St, Wake, Wake N, VT, @ BC, @ GT

32 Miss St 21-13
4-8
4-3
7-0
6-1
Ten neutral, Ten, Aub, Wash St N, NW N, North Texas "neutral site" game in Tupelo, MS, LSU N, @ LSU

46 Oklahoma 20-12
4-12
5-0
3-0
8-0
ISU, BYU, @ Cincy, Cincy, @ KSU, Prov N, Iowa N, USC N, @ OK St

42 Texas A&M 20-14
7-6
6-2
2-5
5-0
Ky neutral, Ky, Ten, ISU, @ Ohio St, @ SMU, Florida, Miss St, Miss N, @ Miss, @ UGa, LSU, Penn St N

55 Virginia 23-10
2-6
8-4
7-0
6-0
@ Clem, Fla, A&M, Wake, BC N, @ BC, VT, NC St, @ FSU, @ GT

54 Northwestern 21-11
4-7
5-3
5-0
7-1
Purdue, Dayton, Mich St, Ill, Neb, OSU, IU, @ Md, @ PSU

57 Providence 21-13
6-9
3-4
1-0
11-0
Marq, Wis, Creighton, Creighton N, @ SHU, @ Xavier, SJU, Butler, UGa N

65 SHU 20-12
5-7
4-4
2-1
9-0
UConn, Marq, SJU, @ SJU, @ Prov, @ But, But, Nova, Xavier

Indiana St, Oklahoma, SHall and Prov.

 

[SteelBowl70]

This year is atypical. Never have so many conference champions fared this badly in the tournaments with many not even Making the semifinals. Likely a record number of one bid conferences getting an extra bid.

 

[Pitt666]

NC State up 9 early on UNC ughhh. Man this sucks so far tonight.

The bounces they are getting on both ends, but I feel UNC wears them down late.

 

[Pitt666]

As for bubble, I think it depends on what they try to place emphasis on. If road record that is good for Pitt. If BPI that is great for Pitt and bad for MwC. One could argue MWC is really a three bid league via BPi with UNM, SDSU and neavada

 

[Elsalvador]

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

At this point, I'm just wondering if us getting in is so unlikely that I should just root for upsets tonight. What an awful week. And if NC State continues to play UNC exactly as closely as we did, well, it just persists. Doesn't exactly make us sticking with them last night look more impressive.

 

[SteelBowl70]

NC State looking more likely to get the 4th ACC bid

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

NC State looking more likely to get the 4th ACC bid

Somewhat cathartic seeing Bacot get bullied down low. Man, we need one of those center thingamajiggies. Feels like they should be especially valuable in today's game, because really good traditional centers have a way better chance at staying in college all four years than the other positions.

 

[LGP1989]

A comedy of errors for us this week. RJ Davis turns into an absolute goose after torching us in the second half. C'est la Vie.

 

[docpanther26]

Oregon just took the lead too...figures.