Season Record Prediction
- Thread starter PITT_PANTHER17
- Start date
1 thing I learned from watching the ACCN season preview is that there's really only 4 teams with considerably more talent than us (UVa, Duke, FSU, UNC and Im not really sold on UNC). 5 through 13 are pretty close. Now, we could very easily finish 13th as we were picked but that would be due to poor coaching, not necessarily low talent because once you get past the first 4, none of those teams will overwhelm with us talent.
I’m wary of the overall talent of the team. I love Capel personally and was happy to eat crow after season one where I thought he got them to play above their weight class, but I am not seeing the depth of talent that one would expect of a staff going into their 3rd season. Outside of XJ, Champagnie, and Toney we’ve got a lot of question marks and not much room for error/injury/illness.
Without knowing if an NIT is going to happen, my conservative view was that an NIT berth should be the floor for this team. Fair or not, they have to be an NCAA tournament team in 2021-22 so an NIT-level season this year would put them in position to realistically take that next step.
Without knowing if an NIT is going to happen, my conservative view was that an NIT berth should be the floor for this team. Fair or not, they have to be an NCAA tournament team in 2021-22 so an NIT-level season this year would put them in position to realistically take that next step.
I might have partially agreed a while back that at least that an NIT was possible. However, I believe the greatly reduced OOC schedule has killed any possibility of that by costing this team about 5 potential wins. With 20 ACC games and only 4 or maybe 5 OCC games it will be extremely difficult for this team to finish the season with more wins than losses as I would have otherwise expected this regular season (Say a 17-14 ish finish).
A team otherwise looking like NIT material will now do well to finish with about 12 total wins given the reduced schedule of easier opponents. Success now looks like 12-12 or 13-12 at best with a barely possible 2-3 wins in the ACC tourney needed for any possibility for post season play to happen. That’s the way I see it at this point.
Regardless, I expect to enjoy the season merely by watching the new young guys play and develop!
A team otherwise looking like NIT material will now do well to finish with about 12 total wins given the reduced schedule of easier opponents. Success now looks like 12-12 or 13-12 at best with a barely possible 2-3 wins in the ACC tourney needed for any possibility for post season play to happen. That’s the way I see it at this point.
Regardless, I expect to enjoy the season merely by watching the new young guys play and develop!
Agree. The Class 2020 class is pretty meh overall. Hopefully Hugley and Collier can contribute this season and develop for 21/22. Capel needs to inject some new assistants into the program, he’s not a good enough head coach to win with Bottom tier ACC talent. Honestly, he’s not a good enough coach to win WITH it, I hope I’m wrong but history isn’t on Capel’s side.
Don’t agree at this point, at least, either on Capel’s recruiting or on the incoming class overall.. I may change my opinion in the future on either or both depending on how things work out over the next couple of seasons.
As stated earlier in this thread, my opinion on the coaching piece is that, IMHO, Capel coached very well the past two seasons given the limited talent and depth he had available and believe Capel’s prior coaching history that worries some is ancient history and before he got to work as an assistant to Coach K.
As to an assessment of the incoming freshman class, at least for now, I consider it a lot better than “Meh.” I am going to be satisfied with Pitt recruiting anytime they land 2 top 100 players in a class as they did (including one, Jeffress, who would have been ranked higher in that top 100 if he hadn’t left high school a year early). Add to that view, it was a class that filled desperate needs for height, length and depth which should pay benefits vs fatigue for starters late in games. I am not concerned nor was I disappointed from unrealistically expecting a class like Duke, UNC, Virginia, FSU landed as seems to be implied by those disappointed with this recruit class.
Again, I am open to changing my view on either or both issues based on what happens over the next couple of seasons. But for the present, I am staying fairly optimistic that we can move up a few slots to the top of the bottom 1/3 of the league this season and up to solidly middle of the pack the year (within the middle 1/3 of the league) after the experience gained this season.
As stated earlier in this thread, my opinion on the coaching piece is that, IMHO, Capel coached very well the past two seasons given the limited talent and depth he had available and believe Capel’s prior coaching history that worries some is ancient history and before he got to work as an assistant to Coach K.
As to an assessment of the incoming freshman class, at least for now, I consider it a lot better than “Meh.” I am going to be satisfied with Pitt recruiting anytime they land 2 top 100 players in a class as they did (including one, Jeffress, who would have been ranked higher in that top 100 if he hadn’t left high school a year early). Add to that view, it was a class that filled desperate needs for height, length and depth which should pay benefits vs fatigue for starters late in games. I am not concerned nor was I disappointed from unrealistically expecting a class like Duke, UNC, Virginia, FSU landed as seems to be implied by those disappointed with this recruit class.
Again, I am open to changing my view on either or both issues based on what happens over the next couple of seasons. But for the present, I am staying fairly optimistic that we can move up a few slots to the top of the bottom 1/3 of the league this season and up to solidly middle of the pack the year (within the middle 1/3 of the league) after the experience gained this season.
I will not throw out a record. This is one man's opinion, and I will say we will be more competitive and alot better than many people think we will be. Capel has put together a roster that now has players and depth at most every position. He will figure out how to use them and I hope we can go ten deep, incorporating most all the freshmen except maybe big Max. Its finally going to be fun, and I am flush with excitement to see the new talent, especially Big John, Horton, and Femi.
Capel in his 25 minute interview yesterday said he knows who his starters will be but hasn’t sorted out yet how the rest of the roster will be utilized. He said some of that will be worked out by who plays best in games once the season is underway. He didn’t specify his starting lineup, however. But since he talked a lot about XJ and Justin Champagnie we can assume they are 2 of the starters. The other 3, and especially who plays center remain for our speculation until Wednesday night.
A very dood guess would be Horton, Toney with Brown a decent guess as well but that is more doubtful. I say this keeping in mind that starting may not be the same as getting the most PT at each spot. I could see Brown starting but over the season betting less PT than Hugley. A possibility, average post PT wise that could play out could wind up something like Hugley 18 min, Brown 15 min, going small 5 min, Amadasun 2 min with Brown the starter at tip-off throughout.
A very dood guess would be Horton, Toney with Brown a decent guess as well but that is more doubtful. I say this keeping in mind that starting may not be the same as getting the most PT at each spot. I could see Brown starting but over the season betting less PT than Hugley. A possibility, average post PT wise that could play out could wind up something like Hugley 18 min, Brown 15 min, going small 5 min, Amadasun 2 min with Brown the starter at tip-off throughout.
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Brown will be center. Toney will be a starter. There is no speculation. Only the dreamers and people with delusions think otherwise.
I wouldn’t be so sure about Brown. I mean, I don’t know either way. But X, Toney, and Champ will start.
Johnson, Horton, Toney, Champagnie, Brown. I don’t think there’s much to think about here. The intrigue will be who the first guys off the bench will be, as our depth truly concerns me.
Depth truly concerned me the last two seasons. It is no longer an issue, IMHO, at least quantity wise.. What remains an issue is the quality of the newly added depth In terms of it becoming ready for prime time.
St. Francis has plenty of height on its roster so there should be opportunity for the new big guys to see some PT—perhaps even a necessity.
St. Francis has plenty of height on its roster so there should be opportunity for the new big guys to see some PT—perhaps even a necessity.
A wildcard in all if this, i believe, is Couldably (sp?). He's the sort of player that can really change the fortunes of a team. He's a tough player to describe. I think he has such a natural understanding of the game, but just needs to believe that he can be a pretty good player and works hard. I was a fan of his last year.
I pretty much agree, especially regarding Brown. No doubt he will see considerable minutes especially now at the beginning of the season. However, this teams weak rebounding last year being a major coaching concern, it is possible that Hugley could immediately bring more as a defensive rebounder than Brown is capable of providing. We may have an answer to that question fairly soon.
Also, IMHO, even if Hugley performs better than Brown on the defensive boards, there remains the conditioning and experience factors which would still likely lead to Hugley not playing more than 20 minutes especially early in the season.
In any event watching things unfold is what should make this season enjoyable whatever Ws vs Ls happen.
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I think fouling is going to be a larger concern for Hugley in the early going than conditioning. Young big men can often tend to foul a ton, and there aren’t too many OOC games for him to get a feel for things before ACC play. ACC teams are going to target him down low and make him defend ACC bigs without fouling, and I think that’s going to be a real learning experience for him this year.
Yes. Especially if he struggles with conditioning. I expect 12-15 minutes on avg for him. 5-6 pts / 4 rebs. Probably have a few good games where he pulls a Tim Glover, but will hopefully show more than Coulibaly did.
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