SMF's latest bowl projections

[Sean Miller Fan]

Fiesta: Clemson
Orange: FSU

It gets tricky real quick. Florida Citrus Sports has the next 2 picks. Do they want a demoralized Louisville fanbase who wont sell many tickets in one of their games. Bowls see a substantial drop off in ticket sales for teams that fall into the game rather than win their way in. It would not surprise me in the least if FC Sports passed entirely on Louisville because of this and Pitt wound up in one of these games. That said, I would guess they take the probable Heisman winner. so:

Citrus: Louisville
Russell Athletic: Pitt

TaxSlayer: Miami
Belk: VT
Pinstripe: UNC
Sun: GT

St. Pete: NCSU
Independence: Wake Forest
Quick Lane: BC

I think finally, Pitt is the recipient of strange circumstances that go in our favor for once like VT playing in Orlando just prior with a season opening game vs WVU next year, Louisville's late season slide and the fact that Miami may rather play an SEC team in Jacksonville or Charlotte, potentially Georgia in a "Richt Bowl" rather than WVU.

 

[runthewildcat]

Even if half of the Louisville fans go to the game it will still be more than Pitt. We aren't going to RA bowl. UNC has a much greater chance than us too.
You're going to be very disappointed come bowl time if that's what you expect.

 

[UPitt '89]

Even if half of the Louisville fans go to the game it will still be more than Pitt. We aren't going to RA bowl. UNC has a much greater chance than us too.
You're going to be very disappointed come bowl time if that's what you expect.

He didn't say Louisville to the RA Bowl. He said Louisville to the Citrus.

 

[runthewildcat]

You honestly believe they'll take Pitt over VT, UNC, Louisville or even Miami ?
We play these scenarios out in our heads every yr and these teams are always selected over us.

 

[PhPanther1]

Can't you just wait a week? You need a daily post about bowl projections?

 

[runthewildcat]

He didn't say Louisville to the RA Bowl. He said Louisville to the Citrus.

I hope he's right, I really do.
Why can't you see Pitt is NOT a big draw compared to the teams I mentioned.
Yes, we score points, but other than Pitt fans, no one either knows that, or if they do, they don't care.

 

[UPitt '89]

You honestly believe they'll take Pitt over VT, UNC, Louisville or even Miami ?
We play these scenarios out in our heads every yr and these teams are always selected over us.

Sigh. Some people simply don't read.

It wouldn't be over Louisville, since Louisville would be in a better bowl - the Citrus.

It wouldn't be over VT, because VT isn't going to go to Orlando twice in one month and then play the team they're going to meet in the 2017 opener.

The RA is between Pitt, Miami, and UNC. Miami wants to play Georgia in the Taxslayer or Belk.

So it really is between Pitt and UNC. The RA has to decide which will make it more money: Pitt-WVU or UNC-WVU.

 

[runthewildcat]

Sigh. Some people simply don't read.

It wouldn't be over Louisville, since Louisville would be in a better bowl - the Citrus.

It wouldn't be over VT, because VT isn't going to go to Orlando twice in one month and then play the team they're going to meet in the 2017 opener.

The RA is between Pitt, Miami, and UNC. Miami wants to play Georgia in the Taxslayer or Belk.

So it really is between Pitt and UNC. The RA has to decide which will make it more money: Pitt-WVU or UNC-WVU.

VT would still bring more people so that's a big if. UNC would bring more people as well.
Pitt/wvu in Pittsburgh would attract a lot of Pitt fans but not in Florida.
How many times do we have to go over Pitt/wvu or Pitt/psu in a bowl game?

 

[runthewildcat]

I bet I'm right and you are both wrong.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You honestly believe they'll take Pitt over VT, UNC, Louisville or even Miami ?
We play these scenarios out in our heads every yr and these teams are always selected over us.

OK, lets play:

Lou: I have them in the Citrus. So, they aren't in the mix for the RA.

UNC: They went to RA last year and ended the season with 2 soul-crushing losses to their 2 bitter rivals. Its basketball season and the few UNC football fans they did have are surely not going to Orlando to watch them play WVU. 0% chance of this.

VT: They played in Orlando 25 days prior. Will their fans make 2 Orlando trips? Perhaps more importantly, will their fans, players, and coaches want back to back games with WVU as they open the season with them? I'd be very very surprises to see.

Miami: This could happen. But remember the teams have a say in this too and its my belief that Miami would rather play an SEC team in Jacksonville or Charlotte. Beyond that, Miami's senior class played in this bowl as freshmen and their redshirt juniors were on the sidelines as it was their RS year. These players may want a different experience.

As I said, a very strange set of circumstances may go in our favor.

Get out the sun block and pack your bags because a Backyard Brawl in Orlando is likely at this point.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

You honestly believe they'll take Pitt over VT, UNC, Louisville or even Miami ?
We play these scenarios out in our heads every yr and these teams are always selected over us.

UNC is not a fanbase that travels particularly well to bowl games. Look at the 2013 Belk Bowl where they had trouble selling tickets for a game played just a few hours away. BOA Stadium holds ~ 74K and there were 30K empty seats at that game. Add to that the disappointing way they finished their season and I don't see UNC traveling well to a bowl.

Miami doesn't travel well either but will benefit if placed in a bowl close to home.

The other 8-4 team (Georgia Tech) is another team that doesn't travel well.

It isn't unreasonable to think a bowl would take Pitt over any of those teams.

 

[runthewildcat]

OK, lets play:

Lou: I have them in the Citrus. So, they aren't in the mix for the RA.

UNC: They went to RA last year and ended the season with 2 soul-crushing losses to their 2 bitter rivals. Its basketball season and the few UNC football fans they did have are surely not going to Orlando to watch them play WVU. 0% chance of this.

VT: They played in Orlando 25 days prior. Will their fans make 2 Orlando trips? Perhaps more importantly, will their fans, players, and coaches want back to back games with WVU as they open the season with them? I'd be very very surprises to see.

Miami: This could happen. But remember the teams have a say in this too and its my belief that Miami would rather play an SEC team in Jacksonville or Charlotte. Beyond that, Miami's senior class played in this bowl as freshmen and their redshirt juniors were on the sidelines as it was their RS year. These players may want a different experience.

As I said, a very strange set of circumstances may go in our favor.

Get out the sun block and pack your bags because a Backyard Brawl in Orlando is likely at this point.

Also, what makes you so certain wvu is going to RA bowl?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

UNC would bring more people as well.

If you think UNC/WVU outdraws Pitt/WVU.......not sure what to tell you. Pitt gets 20% more WVU to make the trip and Pitt would travel more than UNC straight up. UNC's fanbase is worse than ours. Plus, they lost their last 2 and......were......well IN THIS GAME LAST YEAR!

0.00000% chance of UNC in this game.

 

[runthewildcat]

UNC is not a fanbase that travels particularly well to bowl games. Look at the 2013 Belk Bowl where they had trouble selling tickets for a game played just a few hours away. BOA Stadium holds ~ 74K and there were 30K empty seats at that game. Add to that the disappointing way they finished their season and I don't see UNC traveling well to a bowl.

Miami doesn't travel well either but will benefit if placed in a bowl close to home.

The other 8-4 team (Georgia Tech) is another team that doesn't travel well.

It isn't unreasonable to think a bowl would take Pitt over any of those teams.

It's not unreasonable to think that, but also unlikely.

 

[runthewildcat]

If you think UNC/WVU outdraws Pitt/WVU.......not sure what to tell you. Pitt gets 20% more WVU to make the trip and Pitt would travel more than UNC straight up. UNC's fanbase is worse than ours. Plus, they lost their last 2 and......were......well IN THIS GAME LAST YEAR!

0.00000% chance of UNC in this game.

Read my prior post...

 

[paulbl99]

Fiesta: Clemson
Orange: FSU

It gets tricky real quick. Florida Citrus Sports has the next 2 picks. Do they want a demoralized Louisville fanbase who wont sell many tickets in one of their games. Bowls see a substantial drop off in ticket sales for teams that fall into the game rather than win their way in. It would not surprise me in the least if FC Sports passed entirely on Louisville because of this and Pitt wound up in one of these games. That said, I would guess they take the probable Heisman winner. so:

Citrus: Louisville
Russell Athletic: Pitt

TaxSlayer: Miami
Belk: VT
Pinstripe: UNC
Sun: GT

St. Pete: NCSU
Independence: Wake Forest
Quick Lane: BC

I think finally, Pitt is the recipient of strange circumstances that go in our favor for once like VT playing in Orlando just prior with a season opening game vs WVU next year, Louisville's late season slide and the fact that Miami may rather play an SEC team in Jacksonville or Charlotte, potentially Georgia in a "Richt Bowl" rather than WVU.

Good post
Really

I jcan't figure Pitt getting a Southern Bowl

We'd have to be 10 - 2
Jmo, just sayin.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Also, what makes you so certain wvu is going to RA bowl?

It makes sense. Its a perfect match. WVU goes to Florida. The TX/OK teams stay in Texas. WVU sells more seats in Florida. OKST, for example sella more seats in San Antonio.

 

[pittmeister]

Also, what makes you so certain wvu is going to RA bowl?

The same reason he insisted that Pitt was going to the Orange Bowl a couple of days ago...

 

[runthewildcat]

It makes sense. Its a perfect match. WVU goes to Florida. The TX/OK teams stay in Texas. WVU sells more seats in Florida. OKST, for example sella more seats in San Antonio.

It does make sense. I agree. But, unlike you and I, they don't think Pitt/wvu is very enticing. Hence why Pitt never gets great bowl games.

 

[runthewildcat]

If very apparent you guys are really letting your Pitt bias cloud your judgement if you think Pitt will play in the RA bowl let alone w/ WVU.

 

[UPitt '89]

VT would still bring more people so that's a big if. UNC would bring more people as well.
Pitt/wvu in Pittsburgh would attract a lot of Pitt fans but not in Florida.
How many times do we have to go over Pitt/wvu or Pitt/psu in a bowl game?

UNC would bring more people.

But more WVU people would go to WVU-Pitt in Florida than WVU-UNC in Florida.

And WVU-Pitt would get much better TV ratings than WVU-UNC.

You may be right about Pitt not going to the RA Bowl.... but the competition is really just UNC - neither Louisville (because they'll be in a better bowl) nor VT (because they don't want to play WVU two times in a row) will be involved.

I'd say RA Bowl is 40% UNC, 40% Pitt, 20% other.

 

[UPitt '89]

If very apparent you guys are really letting your Pitt bias cloud your judgement if you think Pitt will play in the RA bowl let alone w/ WVU.

I'm not exhibiting any Pitt bias.

I think Pitt's chances are:

50% Pinstripe
25% RA
20% Sun
5% other

You're simply not understanding the dynamics as to why neither Louisville nor VT will be in the RA Bowl.

 

[drp1tt]

Even if half of the Louisville fans go to the game it will still be more than Pitt. We aren't going to RA bowl. UNC has a much greater chance than us too.
You're going to be very disappointed come bowl time if that's what you expect.

So how many away games or even Bowl games have you gone to? I was at both the Ok State and Clemson game and both had a decent Pitt showing.

 

[runthewildcat]

UNC would bring more people.

But more WVU people would go to WVU-Pitt in Florida than WVU-UNC in Florida.

And WVU-Pitt would get much better TV ratings than WVU-UNC.

You may be right about Pitt not going to the RA Bowl.... but the competition is really just UNC - neither Louisville (because they'll be in a better bowl) nor VT (because they don't want to play WVU two times in a row) will be involved.

I'd say RA Bowl is 40% UNC, 40% Pitt, 20% other.

I think you're viewing this the way you want it to be, but that's not reality.
Wvu might not even go to RA. Let's say they do, they aren't going to get that many more people for a game against Pitt in Florida. Just won't happen.
As long as there are other teams vying for the RA bowl it won't be us.
You'll see that I'm right once the games are announced.

 

[runthewildcat]

I'm not exhibiting any Pitt bias.

I think Pitt's chances are:

50% Pinstripe
25% RA
20% Sun
5% other

You're simply not understanding the dynamics as to why neither Louisville nor VT will be in the RA Bowl.

You're simplying not understanding the dynamics on why RA won't pick Pitt.

 

[runthewildcat]

So how many away games or even Bowl games have you gone to? I was at both the Ok State and Clemson game and both had a decent Pitt showing.

I was at Clemson too...great turn out I agree. Bowl games are different. They take place too long after the season is over and they lose their luster.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

UNC would bring more people.

But more WVU people would go to WVU-Pitt in Florida than WVU-UNC in Florida.

And WVU-Pitt would get much better TV ratings than WVU-UNC.

You may be right about Pitt not going to the RA Bowl.... but the competition is really just UNC - neither Louisville (because they'll be in a better bowl) nor VT (because they don't want to play WVU two times in a row) will be involved.

I'd say RA Bowl is 40% UNC, 40% Pitt, 20% other.

If there is one thing I can promise you its that North Carolina isn't making back to back Russell Athletic Bowm trips. Their fans have given up. No way they sell 2500 tickets to that game.

 

[UPitt '89]

You're simplying not understanding the dynamics on why RA won't pick Pitt.

There's a 75% chance you're right about Pitt not going to RA Bowl.

But there's 100% chance you're wrong about Louisville or VT going to RA Bowl.

 

[runthewildcat]

There's a 75% chance you're right about Pitt not going to RA Bowl.

But there's 100% chance you're wrong about Louisville or VT going to RA Bowl.

I don't care about Louisville. My argument was that Pitt won't make the RA bowl. I don't care what the dynamics are with Louisville and VT. It's all irellevant because the RA still won't select Pitt even if Louisville and VT aren't going to make a trip back.

 

[UPitt '89]

I don't care about Louisville. My argument was that Pitt won't make the RA bowl. I don't care what the dynamics are with Louisville and VT. It's all irellevant because the RA still won't select Pitt even if Louisville and VT aren't going to make a trip back.

We'll see.

The RA's twitter feed leaves open the possibility:

 

[mvk112]

Fiesta - Clemson vs Ohio State
Orange - Florida State vs Michigan
Citrus - Louisville vs Auburn
Russell Athletic - Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma State
Taxslayer - Miami vs Arkansas
Belk - UNC vs Kentucky
Pinstripe - Pitt vs Northwestern
Sun - Georgia Tech vs Stanford
Independence - NC State vs Georgia
Quick Lane - Wake Forest vs Maryland
St. Pete - Boston College vs South Florida

Alamo - WVU vs Colorado

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I don't care about Louisville. My argument was that Pitt won't make the RA bowl. I don't care what the dynamics are with Louisville and VT. It's all irellevant because the RA still won't select Pitt even if Louisville and VT aren't going to make a trip back.

Lets see your projections then? Who goes to the Citrus and RA?

 

[runthewildcat]

Lets see your projections then? Who goes to the Citrus and RA?

Like I said earlier,I don't care about the other teams. i just think it's very unlikely they select PITT in the RA given how they normally select teams.
With that being said, I would be happy to go back to the military bowl. Easy drive and had a lot of fun.
Pinstripe would be terrible in my opinion. Bowl at a baseball team against a terrible big10 team.
Penn state has a better chance at making the final 4 than we do at making the RA bowl.

 

[UPitt '89]

Fiesta - Clemson vs Ohio State
Orange - Florida State vs Michigan
Citrus - Louisville vs Auburn
Russell Athletic - Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma State
Taxslayer - Miami vs Arkansas
Belk - UNC vs Kentucky
Pinstripe - Pitt vs Northwestern
Sun - Georgia Tech vs Stanford
Independence - NC State vs Georgia
Quick Lane - Wake Forest vs Maryland
St. Pete - Boston College vs South Florida

Alamo - WVU vs Colorado

You forgot the Military Bowl.... which will have Wake or NCSU. The Quicklane will have a non-ACC team - probably Army.

 

[UPitt '89]

Like I said earlier,I don't care about the other teams. i just think it's very unlikely they select PITT in the RA given how they normally select teams.
With that being said, I would be happy to go back to the military bowl. Easy drive and had a lot of fun.
Pinstripe would be terrible in my opinion. Bowl at a baseball team against a terrible big10 team.
Penn state has a better chance at making the final 4 than we do at making the RA bowl.

It isn't possible for Pitt to go to the Military Bowl this year.

A. Pitt is locked into a Tier 1 Bowl - as long as Clemson goes to CFP.
B. Military Bowl has a policy of not taking same team two years in a row.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Like I said earlier,I don't care about the other teams. i just think it's very unlikely they select PITT in the RA given how they normally select teams.
With that being said, I would be happy to go back to the military bowl. Easy drive and had a lot of fun.
Pinstripe would be terrible in my opinion. Bowl at a baseball team against a terrible big10 team.
Penn state has a better chance at making the final 4 than we do at making the RA bowl.

You may get your wish. I failed to consider that the Citrus Bowl will do Florida vs Miami if Florida doesn't go to the Sugar Bowl. That means that Florida Citrus Sports has to decide between WVU/Lou and WVU/Pitt. I think Pitt/WVU sells more tickets but Lamar Jackson gets better tv ratings. Florida was there last year and may opt for a different bowl though....or their players may want Miami.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

Fiesta - Clemson vs Ohio State
Orange - Florida State vs Michigan
Citrus - Louisville vs Auburn
Russell Athletic - Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma State
Taxslayer - Miami vs Arkansas
Belk - UNC vs Kentucky
Pinstripe - Pitt vs Northwestern
Sun - Georgia Tech vs Stanford
Independence - NC State vs Georgia
Quick Lane - Wake Forest vs Maryland
St. Pete - Boston College vs South Florida

Alamo - WVU vs Colorado

Oh so you're a college football expert in addition to college basketball??
LOL continue the clown show it is entertaining! Sometimes?

 

[OmarLittle]

probably ~100 bucks roundrip ticket from latrobe and free parking there too, im in if its orlando

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

probably ~100 bucks roundrip ticket from latrobe and free parking there too, im in if its orlando

$400-$500 because of Christmas week.

 

[Piranha]

If Pitt had better support from their fans, then we WOULD be playing in better bowls in warmer climates. Time for fans to put up or shut up.