SMF's preliminary bracket

[Sean Miller Fan]

Going off a few assumptions:

MSU wins, UConn wins, St. Joe's wins, Kentucky wins. I know the likelihood of all that happening is minimal.

1. Kansas
2. North Carolina
3. Oregon
4. Virginia
5. Michigan State
6. Oklahoma
7. Villanova
8. West Virginia

3 seeds
Miami
Utah
Kentucky
Xavier

4
Purdue
Maryland
Indiana
Texas A&M

5
Arizona
Seton Hall
Duke
California

6
Iowa State
Texas
Baylor
St. Joseph's

7
Iowa
Notre Dame
Colorado
Oregon State

8
Texas Tech
UConn
Dayton
Wisconsin

9
USC
Butler
Pitt
Providence

10
Cincinnati
St. Bonaventure
VCU
Michigan

11
Gonzaga
Little Rock

Last 4 in for 11 seeds
1. Syracuse
2. Temple
3. Wichita State
4. St. Mary's

First 4 out
1. South Carolina
2. Vanderbilt
3. San Diego State
4. Monmouth

12
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Fresno State
Chattanooga

13
Yale
UNCW
Stony Brook
Hawaii

14
Buffalo
MTSU
Iona
SFA

15
Green Bay
Weber State
CSUB
UNCA

16
Hampton
Southern

First Four
65. Fairleigh Dickinson
66. Austin Peay
67. Florida Gulf Coast
68. Holy Cross

- I know I said I thought Monmouth was a lock and I still have a feeling they will get in on the basis of 13 road wins (what they dont say is who those road wins came against) but in my opinion, they haven't earned a bid. They have wins over a 7 seed and 9 seed in my field. The 3 losses to teams worse than 200 were just too much to overcome.

- San Diego State vs St. Mary's was tough but SMC's regular season sweep of Gonzaga did it for me. SDSU's had a nice win over Cal but they only have 3 Top 100 wins to SMC's 6 plus I felt SMC had a better loss in their final. Gonzaga is better than Fresno.

- I have Michigan comfortably in. Very weird resume for a bubble team. Only 4 Top 100 wins but all came against teams 27 or better and 0 1 loss against a team worse than 42 and that was a loss to 70

- Wichita didnt do a lot but they had a great win over Utah and I gave them credit for losing 2 games without Fred Van Vleet. Based on their resume alone, they dont deserve a bid but I think the committee's dirty little secret is they have reserve 1 or 2 spots for the little guys and Wichita grabs one.

- Syracuse and Temple over SC and Vandy was tough but it came down to Top 50 wins for me. Temple and Syracuse both have 5. South Carolina has 1, Vandy has 2. I really think Syracuse is relatively safe. They have wins over the regular season SEC champ, Texas A&M, the American Athletic tourney champs (probably), UConn, bubble team SBU, a 5 seed and 7 seed. Plus, they lost 5 games without their coach which I think has to be taken into consideration.

I posted yesterday that Temple was done with a loss today but I couldnt keep them out. Vandy and South Carolina's resume are just so weak and both choked up big time against non-NCAAT teams in their tournaments.

- I would be very surprised if we ended up in Dayton. I have us either as the last 9 or the best 10 flipping with Cincy. Personally, I am hoping for a 10 seed so we can avoid Kansas.

 

[BFo8]

Cmon bruh you said something to the effect of Monmouth being a one million percent lock like 2 days ago.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Cmon bruh you said something to the effect of Monmouth being a one million percent lock like 2 days ago.

Yeah he's also been firm all along that Temple wasn't making it unless they won their tourney. But he's at least acknowledging these late flips in his post.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I don't know how much those top 50 wins really help Temple. First, they are against teams 45, 45, 47, 47. Now, they did sweep both Uconn and Cincy, two teams I have in the field, but they are 8-9 vs top 200. I just can't see an at large with a losing record vs top 200 getting in. For some context, Pitt has a .500 record vs top 100 (And we played 18 games).

About the only thing they have going for them is AAC regular season champs, but does that mean anything? I think a Memphis win today might very well be fatal, that league won't get 4 bids.

I feel like Michigan is "relatively" safe as well. I think the bracket is right now down to these teams: South Carolina, Temple, Monmouth, Cuse, St Marys, Vandy, SDSU. And I think there is room for 3 of the 7. I have Monmouth-South Carolina-Cuse, but it could easily be the other three. Vandy vs. South Carolina will be interesting. I can't possibly see both in, but I do think one will get in just because taking 2 of 14 SEC teams would be too funny.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yeah he's also been firm all along that Temple wasn't making it unless they won their tourney. But he's at least acknowledging these late flips in his post.

True but when I took a really, really close look at it, I felt they did enough. Should have done the research first before saying that.

In any event I think the only resume of the bubble teams that stands out is Syracuse and Michigan. Both are pretty safe I think. And I think Wichita is the most likely to get the token mid-major at large. Those last 3 are anybody's guess. The resumes are so different.

 

[PA_Panther]

Straight from the most famous prognosticator in the State: Punxsutawney Phil
Michigan State, and Uconn
Updated at 4:00 PM

1 Seeds: Kansas, UNC, MSU, Virginia
2 Seeds: Oregon, Nova, Oklahoma, West Virginia
3 Seeds: Xavier, Kentucky Miami, Utah
4 Seeds: Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Texas A&M
5 Seeds: Cal, Duke, Arizona, Iowa State
6 Seeds: Iowa, Seton Hall, Texas, Notre Dame
7 Seeds: Baylor, Wisconsin, Dayton, Uconn
8 Seeds: Providence, St. Joes, Colorado, Texas Tech
9 Seeds: Butler, VCU, Wichita State, Oregon State
10 Seeds: USC, Pitt, St. Bonaventure, Gonzaga
11 Seeds: (Michigan and Cincinnati) Temple v Monmouth SDSU v St. Marys
12 Seeds: Yale, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Arkansas Little Rock
13 Seeds: UNC Wilingham, Buffalo, Iona, Stony Brooke
14 Seeds: Chattanooga, Fresno State, Middle Tennessee, Hawaii
15 Seeds: Weber State, Bakersfield, UNC Asheville, Green Bay
16 Seeds: (FGCU and Hampton) Fairleigh Dickinson v Southern Holy Cross v Austin Peay

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Been wondering about Phil. Now I know. He isn't the world's dumbest human. He is the world's smartest groundhog.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Been wondering about Phil. Now I know. He isn't the world's most annoying human. He is the world's smartest groundhog.

 

[Piranha]

Cmon bruh you said something to the effect of Monmouth being a one million percent lock like 2 days ago.

I think SMF is actually Joey Lunardi.

 

[BFo8]

I think SMF is actually Joey Lunardi.

I wouldn't be shocked if Monmouth got in, but they may literally be the last team to make the field. Was just poking fun at SMF that for being under the assumption that they were in easily.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Going off a few assumptions:

MSU wins, UConn wins, St. Joe's wins, Kentucky wins. I know the likelihood of all that happening is minimal.

.

Umm.....it looks like all of these events is exactly what is or going to happen.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Umm.....it looks like all of these events is exactly what is or going to happen.

Pretty good, right?

As for Monmouth, in reply to another poster, I wouldn't be surprised if they got in either but their 3 losses worse than 200 did it for me. If you want to get an at-large from the MAAC, dont lose to West Point. Come on.