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SMF's Survive & Advance Thoughts

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
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- had that feeling again and I love it. Feels like the old days. The FSU loss made me almost physically sick and this one gave me that old euphoric feeling. Definitely the best "feeling" I've had after a win since Syracuse in DC in 2016 because I truly felt we wouldn't make the NCAAT with a loss. Survive & Advance

- What this win does is gives us the opportunity on Saturday to really give us a bit of breathing room if we can beat Miami. I dont think we beat Miami but we can. Its not impossible. Win that, figure an L at UNC and W vs Lou, we would be 9-4. 13-7 may do it. So would need 4 more. At FSU, BC, GT, Syr could well do it. UNC probably finishes Tier 1. Miami currently 37, could finish in the Top 30 and that would be a T1 win if we get it

- Speaking of Tiers, its utterly ridiculous that Wake, being ranked worse than 60, will be a Q3 win in the morning as Wake will probably fall below 75. So, lets say you beat #75 Wake on the road. That's Q1. Beat the #76 team at home, that's Q3.

- Pitt isnt going to have to worry about any of that though if they dont start defending. The D has been as bad as I've seen these last 2 games. When Wake didnt score, I found myself wondering "how." Luckily, Wake was just as bad defensively, probably worse until they went to the 1-3-1 which allowed them to come back but Pitt made just enough 3s out of it to win. But something needs to change on D. These teams are getting warm-up jumpers and layups. For a stretch in the early 2nd Half, it felt like they were running layup lines while we went a little cold from 3 (Nelly!!!!!)

- Nelly's struggling a bit right now. I think he needs to stop settling for 3s and try to do what he did at Colgate and get into the lane and try to create for someone or take that 17 footer.

- The 3's, man. Loved seeing it. But that's not sustainable. You win any way you can and we were getting open looks. But this team has to start finding ways to get easier shots because we aren't going to shoot 18-37 very often. I thought Wake's size limited Burton's drive/mid-range game.

- Forbes does a really good job in the portal. This is 2 new teams in 2 years. Unfortunately for him, they are probably going to come up a little short but their guys can play....offense anyway. The Carr dude looked familiar as heck. Then I remembered I watched him in the NCAAT at PPG at Delaware and I thought how the heck is a 6'11 perimeter dude at Delaware. I think I posted we should recruit him, thinking he'd transfer.

- Felt bad for Kenny. He had to take 100 selfies. The money and fame is great but that has to be annoying.

- Halfway through the ACC schedule. We would be the 3 seed and have a double bye. Crazy. Perhaps even crazier is that's not good enough to have us safely in the tournament. Darn B12, B10, SEC and their excellent coaching hires. But this is still really fun right now...as long as we can keep surviving.
 
I think the ACC is turning out to be a very good conference, top to bottom, sans Louisville. Even ND and GTech can beat you.
Yep. Hard to beat a team twice. Hopefully no let down against GT/UL part two, but hopefully get the road win against FSU and split Miami. VT would also be a quad 1 win on the road…
 
the part about our defense that drove me nuts was weak side help on drives. If you're going to help down, you have to close out. The amount of open triples we gave up because we didn't get back to close out was ridiculous.. especially when WF has some serious shooting.

Then just losing our defender late into the possession. One in the first half where WF got the offensive rebound and hit a kid on the wing for a 3. Burton was in the paint. Didn't move. Sibande played the passing lane. Left the kid wide open. Stuff like that needs cleaned up.
 
the part about our defense that drove me nuts was weak side help on drives. If you're going to help down, you have to close out. The amount of open triples we gave up because we didn't get back to close out was ridiculous.. especially when WF has some serious shooting.

Then just losing our defender late into the possession. One in the first half where WF got the offensive rebound and hit a kid on the wing for a 3. Burton was in the paint. Didn't move. Sibande played the passing lane. Left the kid wide open. Stuff like that needs cleaned up.
Helping off corners is so stupid. I can’t believe anyone still does it. Corner 3’s are one of the most practiced and easiest shots in basketball. It seems insane anyone would rather contest a driving 2 than give up a wide open corner 3 yet it continues to happen everywhere every day
 
Helping off corners is so stupid. I can’t believe anyone still does it. Corner 3’s are one of the most practiced and easiest shots in basketball. It seems insane anyone would rather contest a driving 2 than give up a wide open corner 3 yet it continues to happen everywhere every day

I can't remember who made the 3 but it was in the 2nd half.. I think it was Applebey but Nelly half tripped trying to close out and the kid got a clean look and buried it. Let WF drive and score over Fede. Stop leaving shooters.. especially if you're 6' even and have trouble contesting shots as it is.
 
I can't remember who made the 3 but it was in the 2nd half.. I think it was Applebey but Nelly half tripped trying to close out and the kid got a clean look and buried it. Let WF drive and score over Fede. Stop leaving shooters.. especially if you're 6' even and have trouble contesting shots as it is.
Jeff Capel said he’s just starting to get into analytics, that’s why they forced Appleby to the left for the game-ending 3-pt miss.

Now if he’s really serious about analytics, maybe he’ll follow BB and you’re recommendation and let ‘em drive instead of sagging off the corner 3-pt shooter.
 
Jeff Capel said he’s just starting to get into analytics, that’s why they forced Appleby to the left for the game-ending 3-pt miss.

Now if he’s really serious about analytics, maybe he’ll follow BB and you’re recommendationw and let ‘em drive instead of sagging off the corner 3-pt shooter.
Capel needs smf. To lay some knowledge on him
 
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Jeff Capel said he’s just starting to get into analytics, that’s why they forced Appleby to the left for the game-ending 3-pt miss.

Now if he’s really serious about analytics, maybe he’ll follow BB and you’re recommendation and let ‘em drive instead of sagging off the corner 3-pt shooter.

there's coaching and there's execution. Coaching gets 99% of the blame.. especially if you're Jeff Capel and you're coaching Pitt.
 
the part about our defense that drove me nuts was weak side help on drives. If you're going to help down, you have to close out. The amount of open triples we gave up because we didn't get back to close out was ridiculous.. especially when WF has some serious shooting.

Then just losing our defender late into the possession. One in the first half where WF got the offensive rebound and hit a kid on the wing for a 3. Burton was in the paint. Didn't move. Sibande played the passing lane. Left the kid wide open. Stuff like that needs cleaned up.

I dont even think you can help on drives anymore in today's game. You really shouldn't be leaving 3 point shooters open on the perimeter to help on a player driving to take a contested 2 point shot.
 
I dont even think you can help on drives anymore in today's game. You really shouldn't be leaving 3 point shooters open on the perimeter to help on a player driving to take a contested 2 point shot.

not when your 1 & 2 are undersized + below average athletically in CBB .. if you have long/rangy kids, you can help down some.. but Nelly should never leave his guy on the perimeter unless he's a zero out there.. if you're guarding Femi, then yeah, help down. Not Appleby. Not Green from FSU. Stay attached.
 
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not when you're 1 & 2 are undersized + below average athletically in CBB .. if you have long/rangy kids, you can help down some.. but Nelly should never leave his guy on the perimeter unless he's a zero out there.. if you're guarding Femi, then yeah, help down. Not Appleby. Not Green from FSU. Stay attached.

I'd like to see the analytics on help defense. I don't think it works unless you are Virginia and are elite with rotations.
 
Maybe guys like Hinson and Nelly are just not athletic enough to make our defense good. To an extent, the 3 point shot is a killer and you don't want to leave a quality shooter open. That said, there is something to be said for playing good D and keeping teams out of the lane forcing them to take jumpers late in the shotclock. It is hard work, but sometimes we do a good job with that, and sometimes we get out of position. Playing great D takes a ton of effort and energy, so Capel needs to use his bench as much as possible without hurting the overall effort. His ability to shuffle our lineup and keep the guys playing well as well as fresh is going to be huge going forward.
 
Maybe guys like Hinson and Nelly are just not athletic enough to make our defense good. To an extent, the 3 point shot is a killer and you don't want to leave a quality shooter open. That said, there is something to be said for playing good D and keeping teams out of the lane forcing them to take jumpers late in the shotclock. It is hard work, but sometimes we do a good job with that, and sometimes we get out of position. Playing great D takes a ton of effort and energy, so Capel needs to use his bench as much as possible without hurting the overall effort. His ability to shuffle our lineup and keep the guys playing well as well as fresh is going to be huge going forward.
Well that’s another reason Hugley doesn’t work with this team. If people got into the lane and had to shoot over a below the rim Hugley instead of Fede or the twins, it would make our defense even less efficient.
 
Nelly's struggling a bit right now. I think he needs to stop settling for 3s and try to do what he did at Colgate and get into the lane and try to create for someone or take that 17 footer.

- The 3's, man. Loved seeing it. But that's not sustainable. You win any way you can and we were getting open looks. But this team has to start finding ways to get easier shots because we aren't going to shoot 18-37 very often. I thought Wake's size limited Burton's drive/mid-range game.
Nelly can't do what he did at Colgate cause this isn't the Patriot League. And WF size didn't bother JB but it does bother Nelly and Elliot. JB was being face guarded in the first half. His defender wasn't even looking at the man with the ball. First time a team has done that. When they went to the 1-3-1, JB took over and when they got him the ball at the high post he was especially effective. He didn't panic or force things like the rest of the team was doing at that point.
 
Nelly can't do what he did at Colgate cause this isn't the Patriot League. And WF size didn't bother JB but it does bother Nelly and Elliot. JB was being face guarded in the first half. His defender wasn't even looking at the man with the ball. First time a team has done that. When they went to the 1-3-1, JB took over and when they got him the ball at the high post he was especially effective. He didn't panic or force things like the rest of the team was doing at that point.

I realize its not the Patriot League but Nelly isnt a 3 point shooter. He has to make more of an effort to get into the lane and put pressure on the defense. Not saying he needs to go full Xavier Johnson/Trey McGowens driving drunk but something.
 
Well that’s another reason Hugley doesn’t work with this team. If people got into the lane and had to shoot over a below the rim Hugley instead of Fede or the twins, it would make our defense even less efficient.

agreed, but would be willing to go to a zone w/John to trade off for more offense. There's no doubt we're more rounded with Fede playing the 5 because of his rim protection and his screen defense.. he's been so big for us there. His ability to hedge and recover has been unsung all year... and obviously part of that is guys tagging the roll man with help D.. but sometimes we're just late to close out when we help down on the roll man. I'm fine with hedging but I'd almost rather us just drop Fede and have on ball fight over the screen... or even have Fede catch until the on ball can get over... reason being is that I'll take our chance with a guy shooting off the dribble from deep + with Fede dropping, I'm not worried about any center popping and making a jumper.

I obviously trust Capel, but I'm tired of us losing guys on the perimeter and giving up open looks.
 
I realize its not the Patriot League but Nelly isnt a 3 point shooter. He has to make more of an effort to get into the lane and put pressure on the defense. Not saying he needs to go full Xavier Johnson/Trey McGowens driving drunk but something.
He is making an effort to get to the lane but his size, lack of speed and strength and the defenses are now adjusting are keeping that from happening. He and they are going to deal with it the rest of the season. It's why JB has to act more as a facilitator.
 
agreed, but would be willing to go to a zone w/John to trade off for more offense. There's no doubt we're more rounded with Fede playing the 5 because of his rim protection and his screen defense.. he's been so big for us there. His ability to hedge and recover has been unsung all year... and obviously part of that is guys tagging the roll man with help D.. but sometimes we're just late to close out when we help down on the roll man. I'm fine with hedging but I'd almost rather us just drop Fede and have on ball fight over the screen... or even have Fede catch until the on ball can get over... reason being is that I'll take our chance with a guy shooting off the dribble from deep + with Fede dropping, I'm not worried about any center popping and making a jumper.

I obviously trust Capel, but I'm tired of us losing guys on the perimeter and giving up open looks.
I hate hedging. Have forever. Gary McGhee, Dejuan Blair etc getting fouls 40 feet from the rim as always been so dumb to me.

Drop coverage or doubling.
 
I realize its not the Patriot League but Nelly isnt a 3 point shooter. He has to make more of an effort to get into the lane and put pressure on the defense. Not saying he needs to go full Xavier Johnson/Trey McGowens driving drunk but something.
Nelly is not a good shooter, period. He has the worst shooting percentage of Pitt's top 6, yet he is taking only 2 fewer shots per game than either JB or Hinson. Plus, he doesn't get to the free throw line much - less than 2 attempts per game.
 
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Well that’s another reason Hugley doesn’t work with this team. If people got into the lane and had to shoot over a below the rim Hugley instead of Fede or the twins, it would make our defense even less efficient.
Can't argue with that. I think him being out is a big reason our defense improved from early on. John was never Mr. Mobility, but, this year it was like he had cement shoes on. He was slow to react and couldn't jump at all. Last year Hugs was tough to back down and hard to get around. This year he was just to slow to hedge and recover, and as you say, compared to Fede, just way to easy to shoot over.
 
agreed, but would be willing to go to a zone w/John to trade off for more offense. There's no doubt we're more rounded with Fede playing the 5 because of his rim protection and his screen defense.. he's been so big for us there. His ability to hedge and recover has been unsung all year... and obviously part of that is guys tagging the roll man with help D.. but sometimes we're just late to close out when we help down on the roll man. I'm fine with hedging but I'd almost rather us just drop Fede and have on ball fight over the screen... or even have Fede catch until the on ball can get over... reason being is that I'll take our chance with a guy shooting off the dribble from deep + with Fede dropping, I'm not worried about any center popping and making a jumper.

I obviously trust Capel, but I'm tired of us losing guys on the perimeter and giving up open looks.
It goes both ways tho. Against Wake last night when they were coming back, they were getting open threes, but also getting plenty of dunks and layups. There is nothing more frustrating than seeing your defense get gutted for dunks. I mean, Wake can score for sure, but, we need to be better. That defensive effort last night was definitely a losing effort had we not been historically good from 3 land.
 
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It goes both ways tho. Against Wake last night when they were coming back, they were getting open threes, but also getting plenty of dunks and layups. There is nothing more frustrating than seeing your defense get gutted for dunks. I mean, Wake can score for sure, but, we need to be better. That defensive effort last night was definitely a losing effort had we nor been historically good from 3 land.

Wake was running layup lines and warm-up 3s. We were awful defensively and it took a historic effort from 3 to win by 2. That COULD have been a 20 point loss if we had a bad shooting night. Definitely need to be better defensively.
 
I have always thought hedging was laughably ineffective as well. Coaches must think it makes them look clever? It doesn’t. It makes them seem like fools when it repeatedly doesn’t work. Maybe they sell it when recruiting big men? “We hedge, you won’t have the drudgery of grinding it out in the paint continuously, and the NBA will think you are ‘athletic’ and not a big gawky slob”. I dunno. But it just doesn’t work most of the time.
 
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