Teamrankings.com & Pitt

[UPitt '89]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/pittsburgh-panthers/bracketology

Currently has us as 88.2% chance of making the Tournament, with a likely seed of #3.

7.4% chance of winning the ACC tournament.

8.6% chance of making the Final Four.

(Interesting that we have a better chance of making the Final Four than of winning the ACC Tournament)

1.7% chance of winning the NCAA championship

Projects a 23-7/12-6 regular season record and 4th in the ACC.

Favored in every remaining game except:
1/14 Louisville Away 19.3%
2/14 N Carolina Away 25.8%
2/9 Miami (FL) Away 28.5%
2/24 Louisville Home 45.8%
1/9 Notre Dame Away 49.9%

Next five hardest remaining games:
2/6 Virginia Home 53.2%
2/28 Duke Home 55.0%
1/23 Florida St Away 58.9%
3/5 GA Tech Away 61.4%
2/20 Syracuse Away 65.5%

Ten easiest remaining games:
1/2 Maryland ES Home 99.5%
12/23 W Carolina Home 98.4%
1/16 Boston Col Home 98.1%
2/16 Wake Forest Home 93.8%
1/31 VA Tech Home 92.5%
1/19 NC State Home 89.1%
12/30 Syracuse Home 87.7%
1/6 GA Tech Home 85.3%
3/2 VA Tech Away 75.2%
1/27 Clemson Away 72.6%

 

[Zaratoughda]

Great post '89!

Yeah, we've got various rankings... computer rankings... and what not.... but the thing is... I don't know about the percentages but I agree 100% with the list of our most difficult games.

Interesting that they rank our game at Ville as our most difficult over our game at UNC... is it possible they know that Pitino has had Dixon's number lately? Or that we beat UNC last year at home? Ya never know.

Also interesting that they rank our game at Miami as our 3rd most difficult. I mentioned as much recently... Larranaga can coach!

Note that there is a big gap between our 3 most difficult games and the rest of the games.

The most important regular season games for us are the home games against UVA and Duke. These two have had our number and it is time to get the monkey off our back with them.

 

[Fredact]

Great post '89!


Interesting that they rank our game at Ville as our most difficult over our game at UNC... is it possible they know that Pitino has had Dixon's number lately? Or that we beat UNC last year at home? Ya never know.

Also interesting that they rank our game at Miami as our 3rd most difficult. I mentioned as much recently... Larranaga can coach!
.

Most systems show Louisville as several points stronger than UNC, so that's not much of a surprise. It's almost more of a surprise that Miami isn't also ahead of UNC, as some places show them as the stronger team as well.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Interesting that they rank our game at Ville as our most difficult over our game at UNC... is it possible they know that Pitino has had Dixon's number lately? Or that we beat UNC last year at home? Ya never know.

Or is it merely that they "know" that Louisville is simply the better team? I mean after all, they do have Louisville ranked number one at this point.

No, it can't be that. Obviously their computer doesn't just look at the teams ratings and figure out the expected win percentages from that. The computer knows enough to check and see who has whose number and takes that into account too. And if necessary it will throw out how the teams are doing this year and go with the "who won when they played last year" theory.

 

[R-M-U-h-o-o-p-s-f-a-n]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/pittsburgh-panthers/bracketology

Currently has us as 88.2% chance of making the Tournament, with a likely seed of #3.

7.4% chance of winning the ACC tournament.

8.6% chance of making the Final Four.

(Interesting that we have a better chance of making the Final Four than of winning the ACC Tournament)

1.7% chance of winning the NCAA championship

Projects a 23-7/12-6 regular season record and 4th in the ACC.

Favored in every remaining game except:
1/14 Louisville Away 19.3%
2/14 N Carolina Away 25.8%
2/9 Miami (FL) Away 28.5%
2/24 Louisville Home 45.8%
1/9 Notre Dame Away 49.9%

Next five hardest remaining games:
2/6 Virginia Home 53.2%
2/28 Duke Home 55.0%
1/23 Florida St Away 58.9%
3/5 GA Tech Away 61.4%
2/20 Syracuse Away 65.5%

Ten easiest remaining games:
1/2 Maryland ES Home 99.5%
12/23 W Carolina Home 98.4%
1/16 Boston Col Home 98.1%
2/16 Wake Forest Home 93.8%
1/31 VA Tech Home 92.5%
1/19 NC State Home 89.1%
12/30 Syracuse Home 87.7%
1/6 GA Tech Home 85.3%
3/2 VA Tech Away 75.2%
1/27 Clemson Away 72.6%

Nice post...

Cool that Pitt has a 8.6 chance of making the final four.

Also, If they get a 3 seed, that would be great! Getting back to the sweet sixteen (or further) could be very possible this year.

Go Pitt...

 

[lunzhegu]

Massey's composite of 41 ranking systems (http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm) is finally settling in a bit, and Pitt is currently at 15 -- the only team in the composite top 20 not ranked in the two polls (SMU is not ranked because of the sanctions). There is still considerable deviation range in various rankings.

Until just recently Massey's own ratings had us as underdogs in 11 games, and Massey now has us as underdogs in 9 games. Greenfield's Team Rankings site has been much more positive in assessing Pitt. 12 of the rankings currently have us in the top 10. The standard deviation on our ranking is 7.85.

The ACC currently has 6 teams in the Massey composite top 15. They are all really good, and the next level down is tough, too. The conference is going to be quite a ride this year.

 

[Zaratoughda]

The composite looks like a pretty good guage... but that was BEFORE our game against WC. So, we will have to see how these rankings look come tomorrow.

Edit: Actually, the composite only comes out once a week. So, come next Sunday our near loss will be reflected in those rankings.

 

[Zaratoughda]

On teamrankings.com... after our 'less than expected' margin of victory over WC.... our chance of making the tournament dropped from 88.2% to 82.1%, and our chance of winning the ACCT dropped from 7.4% to 5.6%, and our chance of making the final four dropped from 8.6% to 6.0%... and lastly our chance of winning it all dropped from 1.7% to 1.1%.

Still overall.... from before the Davidson game... our chances of making the tourney increased from 75.4% to 82.1%. and our most likely seed increased from an 8 seed to a 4 seed.

But... whatever is gonna happen is gonna happen.

It's just dangerous to look at these projections after a great performance because they are gonna rise, and then come back down after a less than great performance.

Oh, they now show us as underdogs in SIX (was five) of our remaining games, including Ville and UVA at home. I see the UVA game as a critical one for us as we have not been able to beat them recently (great coaching there IMO) and, we need to get the monkey off our backs on them and the Dukies. As far as Ville is concerned, Dixon has not been able to beat Pitino lately so would be nice to get the monkey off our backs there as well.