The definitive attendance post.

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

This was somehow buried in a post from a week ago or so, but it is by Pittman71. An excellent analysis, facts, truths and our obstacles, but also how we likely aren't as bad as we are made out to be in regards to attendance. This is part 1 by Pittman71:

Monday, March 3, 2014
The Myth of Pitt Football Attendance

Pitt football attendance has taken many jabs for decades, but as I'm about to show, not only are there good reasons why Pitt's attendance is where it is, but also that the attendance is where it should be.

For the most part, the biggest factors in determining college football attendance are whether or not your program is theteam in the area, a large number of people in the area, including students, and on field success.


Average Attendance of BCS Programs in Cities with a Strong Pro Sports Presence

1. USC 73,196
2. UCLA 70,285
3. Washington 68,769
4. Arizona State 62,689
5. Miami 53,837
6. Stanford 50,726
7. Pittsburgh 49,741
8. California 49,329
9. Georgia Tech 49,077
10. Minnesota 47,797
11. TCU 43,598
12. Northwestern 39,307
13. Colorado 38,463
14. South Florida 34,702
15. Boston College 33,006
16. Cincinnati 31,771


Metro Population

1. USC 13 million
1. UCLA 13 million
3. Northwestern 9.5 million
4. TCU 6.7 million
5. Miami 5.7 million
6. Georgia Tech 5.5 million
7. Boston College 4.6 million
8. California 4.5 million
8. Stanford 4.5 million
10. Arizona State 4.3 million
11. Washington 3.5 million
12. Minnesota 3.4 million
13. South Florida 2.8 million
14. Colorado 2.6 million
15. Pittsburgh 2.4 million
16. Cincinnati 2.1 million


Main Campus Enrollment

1. Arizona State 59,794
2. Minnesota 51,853
3. South Florida 47,646
4. Washington 42,907
5. UCLA 41,812
6. USC 39,958
7. California 35,899
8. Cincinnati 33,329
9. Colorado 31,702
10. Pittsburgh 28,766
11. Georgia Tech 21,557
12. Northwestern 19,219
13. Stanford 15,877
14. Miami 15,657
15. Boston College 14,359
16. TCU 9,725


Top 25 Final Ranking in Last Ten Years

1. USC 8
2. TCU 6
3. Boston College 4
3. Cincinnati 4
3. Stanford 4
6. Miami FL 3
6. Arizona State 3
6. California 3
9. Georgia Tech 2
9. Pittsburgh 2
9. UCLA 2
12. Minnesota 1
12. Northwestern 1
12. Washington 1
15. Colorado 0
15. South Florida 0

If you combine these factors, this is where the attendance of each should rank, and where they do rank. I combined the ranking of the three previous categories (metro population, enrollment, success). The number to the right of their name if the combined rank. For instance, USC is 1st, 1st, and 6th, which gives them a score of 8. The lower the number, the higher the score in this case.

1. USC 8 - What they actually rank: 1
2. UCLA 15 - What they actually rank: 2
3. Arizona State 17 - What they actually rank: 4
4. California 21 - What they actually rank: 8
5. TCU 22 - Where they actually rank: 11
6. Stanford 24 - Where they actually rank: 6
7. Boston College 25 - Where they actually rank: 16
7. Miami 25 - Where they actually rank: 5
9. Georgia Tech 26 - Where they actually rank: 9
9. Minnesota 26 - Where they actually rank: 10
11. Washington 27 - Where they actually rank: 3
11. Cincinnati 27 - Where they actually rank: 16
11. Northwestern 27 - Where they actually rank: 12
14. South Florida 31 - Where they actually rank: 14
15. Pittsburgh 34 - Where they actually rank: 7
16. Colorado 38- Where they actually rank: 13

As you can see, this formula proves to be pretty accurate since the attendance of most schools match up with where they are expected to rank. There are three schools that seem to be underachieving- TCU, Boston College, and Cincinnati. But both TCU and Boston College have extremely small enrollment, which easily explains that. Cincinnati, however, has no excuse.

There are also two schools that averaged significantly higher than where they were expected. Washington should be 11th, but they are actually 3rd in attendance. That number is slightly skewed by the fact that they haven't been very successful on the field in the last decade. But they historically have had a lot of success, and when combined with a large population, a large student body, and just two pro sports teams, it's obvious why their attendance is so high. The other, more impressive overachiever is Pittsburgh, who hasn't had great on field success for decades, has a comparatively small population for a major city, and doesn't have a huge student population.

To be specific, and why it's even more impressive for Pitt, is that Pittsburgh has the smallest metro population of any area that has three major professional sports teams. That means it's difficult enough to sustain three pro sports teams (and three popular ones at that), not to mention a major college football program too.

Attendance being limited by being in a pro sports area can not be overstated. USC has had huge success on the field, 13 million people to draw from, and no NFL team providing competition, yet they still only draw 73,196 a game, which is roughly 30,000 less than what the best college towns draw. That number is also 20,000 below capacity for their stadium.

There are a few examples of how Pitt has actually done well in attendance. Arizona State has the most students on their main campus of anybody in the country with 60,000 students. They also have 4.3 million people in the metro area. Both numbers are double, or more than double, than Pitt, yet the Sun Devils average only 13,000 more fans per game.

Another example is Minnesota, who has 3.4 million people in the metro area, one million more than Pittsburgh, and 52,000 students on their main campus, twice that of Pittsburgh. Despite those advantages, the Golden Gophers average roughly 47,000 fans a game, less than the Panthers.

Highly regarded statistician Nate Silver wrote an article for the New York Times in which he determined how many fans each program had. Pitt was ranked No. 37 in the country with over 800,000 fans.

The five programs with the most fans were Ohio State (3.1 million), Michigan (2.9 million), Penn State (2.6 million), Notre Dame (2.3 million), and Texas (2.2 million). Notre Dame is the school that Catholics around the country follow so their popularity is obvious. The other four are a perfect storm for huge attendance.

All four have huge success, mostly because they have the money, through attendance, to have huge budgets. But one can easily see how they got those huge attendance numbers in the first place.

21 pittman71, Aug 4, 2017

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Part II from Pittman71:

Ohio State only has the NHL's Columbus Blue Jackets as competition, and clearly that's not much competition at all. The Blue Jackets formed in 1997, long after the Buckeyes had the area dominated. Columbus also has a metro population of nearly 2 million people, almost as much as Pittsburgh. Imagine if Pitt and the Penguins were the only two teams in Pittsburgh. No Pirates, no Steelers. If that's not enough, Ohio State also has over 57,000 students on the main campus, twice what Pitt has. That means not only a large number of current students, but also a large number of alumni.

Michigan is very similar. They are just 45 minutes from Detroit, which is close enough to visit games, but with an attendance of over 100,000, they are a a large college town. The Detroit metro area has 4.3 million people in it, double that of Pittsburgh. If that's not enough Michigan has 43,000 students on the main campus, and they are believed to have the most living alumni in the country. That's how you routinely fill up the biggest football stadium, college or pro, in the country.

Texas is in Austin, which has over 1.8 million people in the metro area, and no professional sports teams. That alone will make the Longhorns football program popular. But then throw in an enrollment of over 52,000 and you can see why they get double what Pitt gets in attendance.

Then there's Penn State, who Pitt fans are most compared to. The Nittany Lions have no pro teams within hours yet can still draw from both Pittsburgh's 2.4 million metro population and Philadelphia's 6 million metro population. That's a double whammy. On top of that they also have a combined 98,000 total students in their entire system. By comparison, Pitt has 35,000 total students in their entire system. Let me repeat that so it will sink in- Penn State has three times more people to chose from.

Looking further at the schools with top attendance, one sees much of the same. No. 3 in attendance is Alabama with just over 101,000. They have the perfect blend of big college town (93,000), close to a big city (Birmingham with 1.1 million metro population), and a big university (nearly 35,000).

No. 6 in attendance is Tennessee with around 95,500. The university competes with no sports teams, but has 850,000 people in their metro area, and a large university of 27,000 students. Again, roughly the same size school and population as Pittsburgh, but with no sports teams to compete against them. They are the Steelers, Pirates, and Penguins all wrapped up in a big ball of orange.

The next four are Georgia, LSU, Nebraska, and Florida. All are college towns with no professional teams within an hour of them, yet close to major population centers. Like Penn State, Georgia is the state school, and draws from all over the state. Atlanta, with it's 5.5 million metro population, and Augusta with over 500,000 more, are close by. LSU is in Baton Rouge, which has over 800,000 people in it's metro population, and is a little more than an hour from New Orleans, which has 1.2 million more in it's metro population. Nebraska is in Lincoln, which has 265,000 people, and is less than an hour from Omaha which has about 875,000 more in it's metro population. Florida is in Gainesville, which is just a little over an hour from Jacksonville which has 1.4 million people in the metro area, and has 50,000 students.

I think all of this proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt that Pitt's attendance does not mean that they don't have fans that care, but that it all depends on how many people a school can draw from.

The magic potion is to have a very large university, near, but not in, a major city, and with no major professional teams present. The University of Pittsburgh meets none of that criteria, meaning that their attendance will never reach huge numbers, and may be maxed out at roughly half of what the schools with the most attendance achieve.

http://panthersprey.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-myth-of-pitt-football-attendance.html

 

[Cathedral Lawn Frisbee]

No Buccos would mean more night games....which I prefer

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

My take:

When you look at all of this, it is why I say to really honestly compare attendance, Pitt has to be compared with probably Ga Tech and Miami. Those are the two schools who faces the same issues that Pitt has. But Pittsburgh metro area is smaller than both Atlanta and Miami, and smaller by a lot.

Also, if you saw above, the largest fanbases of any college football teams, of the top 5, Pitt's geographic area borders on 2 of the top 5 (tOSU and PSU) and it is in the middle of the "Catholic Belt", which Notre Dame has a significant presence here with our large Catholic population.

Of course this is dated, 3 years old information from above, I think the 49K was inflated then, and probably lower now. But if you really look at our biggest problem with attendance, it is in fact Heinz Field. I am not talking even about location, I am talking capacity and those awful, awful yellow seats that act like a hi-liter to train your eyes on every unoccupied seat. It is the perfect storm of bad publicity.

There are only so many Pitt fans. And only so many fans that actually want to attend games, win or lose. The Steelers are the regions icons (in football) and it is who the most casual of fan identify themselves win. Most Pitt students/alum are from Western PA, they grew up Steeler fans, they stayed Steeler fans in school and after. The Steelers win. Steeler games are a party, it is what we as a region are noted for, so people join what is fun and popular.

There is no way are we ever going to be Penn State as far as a fanbase, we need to stop comparing ourselves with them. It is like Canada trying to compare with the US as far as GNP is concerned. But somehow, and there isn't an on campus stadium in any near or long term plans, so you have to amend Heinz Field to fit your needs.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

No Buccos would mean more night games....which I prefer

Or maybe some coordination and cooperation by the Pirates.

 

[pittdan77]

Steps up on soap box:

YELLOW SEATS.....ON CAMPUS STADIUM.....BUSSES FROM OAKLAND....PIRATE PARKING.....SWIM THE RIVER....TAILGATE IN A PARKING GARAGE.....STEVE PEDERSON.....42-39.....HIGH OCTANE

*dies dramatically*

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt does not have much of an attendance problem. Getting 40K to a game in a pro market for a mediocre program ia pretty good.

Its problem is it plays in a stadium that is far too big and the empty seats really stick out.

 

[ratking17]

I believe that Chris dokish was the true author of that article. Just wanted to give credit to where it is due. (Forgive if I am incorrect but I seem to recall a blog post a few years back regarding this info)

 

[DiehardPanther]

My take:

When you look at all of this, it is why I say to really honestly compare attendance, Pitt has to be compared with probably Ga Tech and Miami. Those are the two schools who faces the same issues that Pitt has. But Pittsburgh metro area is smaller than both Atlanta and Miami, and smaller by a lot.

Also, if you saw above, the largest fanbases of any college football teams, of the top 5, Pitt's geographic area borders on 2 of the top 5 (tOSU and PSU) and it is in the middle of the "Catholic Belt", which Notre Dame has a significant presence here with our large Catholic population.

Of course this is dated, 3 years old information from above, I think the 49K was inflated then, and probably lower now. But if you really look at our biggest problem with attendance, it is in fact Heinz Field. I am not talking even about location, I am talking capacity and those awful, awful yellow seats that act like a hi-liter to train your eyes on every unoccupied seat. It is the perfect storm of bad publicity.

There are only so many Pitt fans. And only so many fans that actually want to attend games, win or lose. The Steelers are the regions icons (in football) and it is who the most casual of fan identify themselves win. Most Pitt students/alum are from Western PA, they grew up Steeler fans, they stayed Steeler fans in school and after. The Steelers win. Steeler games are a party, it is what we as a region are noted for, so people join what is fun and popular.

There is no way are we ever going to be Penn State as far as a fanbase, we need to stop comparing ourselves with them. It is like Canada trying to compare with the US as far as GNP is concerned. But somehow, and there isn't an on campus stadium in any near or long term plans, so you have to amend Heinz Field to fit your needs.

Correct! Downsize Heinz to around 50k or so, and keep it that way.

 

[wbrpanther]

Or maybe some coordination and cooperation by the Pirates.

Straw man. More night games would mean maybe one or two. That's how many conflicts there usually are between Pitt and Pirates home games on the same day. And the Pirates schedules are made up long before Pitt's schedules are out.

 

[wbrpanther]

Correct! Downsize Heinz to around 50k or so, and keep it that way.

So what we are really worried about isn't actual attendance but empty seats, right? Are you actually saying they should remove seats? Which would never happen because they are sold to Steeler fans. Or tarp the upper reaches of the stadium which would look stupid and fool no one with any intelligence.

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

I bash Pitt administrators but tarping seems such a straightforward idea (pretty cheap one too, or perhaps even a revenue source if advertising on them could be done), that even I will give credit to them that it's HAD to have been considered internally, in the nearly 20 years Pitt has been at Heinz now.

Yet it never has been done, after nearly 20 years.

So I think people have to resign themselves that there is some restriction that prevents Pitt from doing it. The Steelers, the stadium authority, maybe even the conference, I dunno. Nor am I claiming that whatever the restriction is, is legitimate or logical. In fact whatever it is, it's probably B.S.. Just saying that it's obviously a restriction they can't get past.

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

Expanding on my post above, for awhile I figured, if there is no outside restriction preventing tarping, it must be that the thought is too potentially embarrassing internally. That resorting to tarps is the white flag of surrender. We are never going to try to win, we know we won't ever get decent crowds as a result, so slap up the tarps. This was kind of the perception when the Pirates did it at Three Rivers. So some possible legitimacy to that idea.

If so, the admins should get over it. Yes it is somewhat embarrassing. But if worried about the embarrassment of the empty seats now (I'm not, but some seem to think the admin does), but they refuse to fund a real winner (which is the only solution to motivate sellouts), the embarrassment that occurs now is never going to abate. Bite the bullet and swallow the initial bile of tarping. Pirates fans got over it. Ours would too.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Correct! Downsize Heinz to around 50k or so, and keep it that way.

So what we are really worried about isn't actual attendance but empty seats, right? Are you actually saying they should remove seats? Which would never happen because they are sold to Steeler fans. Or tarp the upper reaches of the stadium which would look stupid and fool no one with any intelligence.

What looks worse? Empty yellow or a navy blue (or royal blue) tarp?

Whether they tarp or not, they shouldn't try to sell 70K tickets. Eliminate 20K tickets from the inventory which would allow Pitt to raise prices because such dirt-cheap offerings would no longer be available.

I remember at the Copa America in Philly, I had to pay $125 for a lower-level ticket. I would have much rather paid $50 or so for an upper but they closed the non-TV view upper deck, so I was "forced" into buying a more expensive ticket. They knew by using the full Lincoln Financial Field, all it would do is put more people in the upper deck for less of a cost and have a sparsely attended game. Instead, they had 50K and created a great atmosphere because 100% of the seats were full in the areas which were available.

 

[PittGuyYessir]

50k is a fine amount of fans for the success that Pitt has had as a program over the past 3 decades. 4 teams finished in the top 25 over the past 33 seasons and 0 in the top 15. Expecting 70k under those circumstances in unrealistic. IF we win big the stadium will be full. People who criticize the attendance after the big Clemson win fail to realize that the remaining games had zero meaningful implications beyond a marginally better bowl game.

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

50k is a fine amount of fans for the success that Pitt has had as a program over the past 3 decades. 4 teams finished in the top 25 over the past 33 seasons and 0 in the top 15. Expecting 70k under those circumstances in unrealistic. IF we win big the stadium will be full. People who criticize the attendance after the big Clemson win fail to realize that the remaining games had zero meaningful implications beyond a marginally better bowl game.

This is right. Some just don't seem to grasp how important it is to the general yinzer that his team can make the "playoffs" and that winning in the "playoffs" could lead to a championship.

Blame the college football system for not having such easy watered down playoffs (as far as making them) like the other "pro" sports. Geez the Steelers have made it at 9-7 fairly often and then have a chance to win the SB as a result (even if the prospects are dubious). Barely .500 hockey teams have been able to make the playoffs as well, and then they have at least a technical path to win the Cup (again, even if dubious). College football has a ridiculous bowl structure that allows any girbrone team to get on one, true. b
But the path to the actual CHAMPIONSHIP is basically unforgiving. And yinzer are conditioned that only championships matter.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Expanding on my post above, for awhile I figured, if there is no outside restriction preventing tarping, it must be that the thought is too potentially embarrassing internally. That resorting to tarps is the white flag of surrender. We are never going to try to win, we know we won't ever get decent crowds as a result, so slap up the tarps. This was kind of the perception when the Pirates did it at Three Rivers. So some possible legitimacy to that idea.

If so, the admins should get over it. Yes it is somewhat embarrassing. But if worried about the embarrassment of the empty seats now (I'm not, but some seem to think the admin does), but they refuse to fund a real winner (which is the only solution to motivate sellouts), the embarrassment that occurs now is never going to abate. Bite the bullet and swallow the initial bile of tarping. Pirates fans got over it. Ours would too.

Nothing but nonsense all this hand wringing over attendance to tarp or not tarp or to sell, not sell certain seating locations. As to the latter idea, I suspect that Pitt feels that most of the people buying nosebleed seats might not show up at all if those cheap seats weren't for sale. It is just fine for Pitt to have 40-50 K with an occasional full house for a few select opponents under ideal circumstances.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

Pitt does not have much of an attendance problem. Getting 40K to a game in a pro market for a mediocre program ia pretty good.

Its problem is it plays in a stadium that is far too big and the empty seats really stick out.

That's like saying Charles Manson didn't have a murder problem? Or Madoff didn't have a Ponzi scheme embezzlement problem.
PITTER's are "settlers" plain and simple.

Here's the problem.
Noone with any compentency has even tried to improve attendance because we've had AD's SP, Barnes, and now Lyke ( work in progress).
As far as coaches go we've struggled with Wanny, he gets fired, the coaching carosel gets rolling, up until Narduzzi who like Lyke is still a work in progress.

Its hard to increase a fanbase beyond the hardcore base level when the PITT sports program and team is lead by a bunch of Buffoons!

The Big East was a basketball conference not a serious football conference that was a problem in the past.

Now we're in the ACC is a great conference the best in college football so if we get some coaching stability, improve the record, including employing an AD that can lead a sports program the fanbase will increase from a 40k level to something in the mid 50k level fairly quickly. Getting beyond that will be a challenge but 55k fans would be great and its attainable!

The PITT "settlers" will instead keep supporting the PITT sports buffons and tarp the field. The easy way out!

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

Nothing but nonsense all this hand wringing over attendance to tarp or not tarp or to sell, not sell certain seating locations. As to the latter idea, I suspect that Pitt feels that most of the people buying nosebleed seats might not show up at all if those cheap seats weren't for sale. It is just fine for Pitt to have 40-50 K with an occasional full house for a few select opponents under ideal circumstances.

I guess i can also see the fear that the cheapos buying upper decks and not needing to donate to get em (the key thing IMO, since the tickets themselves aren't that much cheaper then lowers) would just say Eff that to being switched to the lower bowl and (gasp) asked to pay an extra 50 bucks donation.

You don't want to turn away any customer I suppose... But Pitt should think hard if they really are getting much value catering to such people.

 

[pittdan77]

TARPS ARE THE DEVIL'S BLANKETS

 

[DiehardPanther]

So what we are really worried about isn't actual attendance but empty seats, right? Are you actually saying they should remove seats? Which would never happen because they are sold to Steeler fans. Or tarp the upper reaches of the stadium which would look stupid and fool no one with any intelligence.

Some sort of advertising on the TV side is a lot better that globs of empty yelllow seats, or else close off the upper deck opposite the camera.

 

[HailtoPitt]

1. USC 8 - What they actually rank: 1
2. UCLA 15 - What they actually rank: 2
3. Arizona State 17 - What they actually rank: 4
4. California 21 - What they actually rank: 8
5. TCU 22 - Where they actually rank: 11
6. Stanford 24 - Where they actually rank: 6
7. Boston College 25 - Where they actually rank: 16
7. Miami 25 - Where they actually rank: 5
9. Georgia Tech 26 - Where they actually rank: 9
9. Minnesota 26 - Where they actually rank: 10
11. Washington 27 - Where they actually rank: 3
11. Cincinnati 27 - Where they actually rank: 16
11. Northwestern 27 - Where they actually rank: 12
14. South Florida 31 - Where they actually rank: 14
15. Pittsburgh 34 - Where they actually rank: 7
16. Colorado 38- Where they actually rank: 13

17. Notre Dame 40 - Where they actually rank: 1

 

[TD_6082]

This is right. Some just don't seem to grasp how important it is to the general yinzer that his team can make the "playoffs" and that winning in the "playoffs" could lead to a championship.

Blame the college football system for not having such easy watered down playoffs (as far as making them) like the other "pro" sports. Geez the Steelers have made it at 9-7 fairly often and then have a chance to win the SB as a result (even if the prospects are dubious). Barely .500 hockey teams have been able to make the playoffs as well, and then they have at least a technical path to win the Cup (again, even if dubious). College football has a ridiculous bowl structure that allows any girbrone team to get on one, true. b
But the path to the actual CHAMPIONSHIP is basically unforgiving. And yinzer are conditioned that only championships matter.

IMO, This post hits the nail on the head of a pro-sports town mentality. Championships matter. Not division championships, or even conference championships unless they lead to a trip to the playoffs. Go renegade and do everything possible to win, and attendance will get a boost. Whether that is enough to fill the stadium on most fall Saturdays can be debated (it probably won't) but regardless, it's the best form of marketing. Besides, who cares about attendance as long as we're winning?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt does not have much of an attendance problem. Getting 40K to a game in a pro market for a mediocre program ia pretty good.

Its problem is it plays in a stadium that is far too big and the empty seats really stick out.

That's like saying Charles Manson didn't have a murder problem? Or Madoff didn't have a Ponzi scheme embezzlement problem.
PITTER's are "settlers" plain and simple.

Here's the problem.
Noone with any compentency has even tried to improve attendance because we've had AD's SP, Barnes, and now Lyke ( work in progress).
As far as coaches go we've struggled with Wanny, he gets fired, the coaching carosel gets rolling, up until Narduzzi who like Lyke is still a work in progress.

Its hard to increase a fanbase beyond the hardcore base level when the PITT sports program and team is lead by a bunch of Buffoons!

The Big East was a basketball conference not a serious football conference that was a problem in the past.

Now we're in the ACC is a great conference the best in college football so if we get some coaching stability, improve the record, including employing an AD that can lead a sports program the fanbase will increase from a 40k level to something in the mid 50k level fairly quickly. Getting beyond that will be a challenge but 55k fans would be great and its attainable!

The PITT "settlers" will instead keep supporting the PITT sports buffons and tarp the field. The easy way out!

55K is a best case scenario for a consistent Top 15-20 program and Pitt is probably never going to be consistently in the Top 15-20. If Pitt became TCU, lets say, then yes, I can see 55K there. But that's still 15K empty yellows.

 

[Panther Parrothead]

This was somehow buried in a post from a week ago or so, but it is by Pittman71. An excellent analysis, facts, truths and our obstacles, but also how we likely aren't as bad as we are made out to be in regards to attendance. This is part 1 by Pittman71:

Monday, March 3, 2014
The Myth of Pitt Football Attendance

Pitt football attendance has taken many jabs for decades, but as I'm about to show, not only are there good reasons why Pitt's attendance is where it is, but also that the attendance is where it should be.

For the most part, the biggest factors in determining college football attendance are whether or not your program is theteam in the area, a large number of people in the area, including students, and on field success.


Average Attendance of BCS Programs in Cities with a Strong Pro Sports Presence

1. USC 73,196
2. UCLA 70,285
3. Washington 68,769
4. Arizona State 62,689
5. Miami 53,837
6. Stanford 50,726
7. Pittsburgh 49,741
8. California 49,329
9. Georgia Tech 49,077
10. Minnesota 47,797
11. TCU 43,598
12. Northwestern 39,307
13. Colorado 38,463
14. South Florida 34,702
15. Boston College 33,006
16. Cincinnati 31,771


Metro Population

1. USC 13 million
1. UCLA 13 million
3. Northwestern 9.5 million
4. TCU 6.7 million
5. Miami 5.7 million
6. Georgia Tech 5.5 million
7. Boston College 4.6 million
8. California 4.5 million
8. Stanford 4.5 million
10. Arizona State 4.3 million
11. Washington 3.5 million
12. Minnesota 3.4 million
13. South Florida 2.8 million
14. Colorado 2.6 million
15. Pittsburgh 2.4 million
16. Cincinnati 2.1 million


Main Campus Enrollment

1. Arizona State 59,794
2. Minnesota 51,853
3. South Florida 47,646
4. Washington 42,907
5. UCLA 41,812
6. USC 39,958
7. California 35,899
8. Cincinnati 33,329
9. Colorado 31,702
10. Pittsburgh 28,766
11. Georgia Tech 21,557
12. Northwestern 19,219
13. Stanford 15,877
14. Miami 15,657
15. Boston College 14,359
16. TCU 9,725


Top 25 Final Ranking in Last Ten Years

1. USC 8
2. TCU 6
3. Boston College 4
3. Cincinnati 4
3. Stanford 4
6. Miami FL 3
6. Arizona State 3
6. California 3
9. Georgia Tech 2
9. Pittsburgh 2
9. UCLA 2
12. Minnesota 1
12. Northwestern 1
12. Washington 1
15. Colorado 0
15. South Florida 0

If you combine these factors, this is where the attendance of each should rank, and where they do rank. I combined the ranking of the three previous categories (metro population, enrollment, success). The number to the right of their name if the combined rank. For instance, USC is 1st, 1st, and 6th, which gives them a score of 8. The lower the number, the higher the score in this case.

1. USC 8 - What they actually rank: 1
2. UCLA 15 - What they actually rank: 2
3. Arizona State 17 - What they actually rank: 4
4. California 21 - What they actually rank: 8
5. TCU 22 - Where they actually rank: 11
6. Stanford 24 - Where they actually rank: 6
7. Boston College 25 - Where they actually rank: 16
7. Miami 25 - Where they actually rank: 5
9. Georgia Tech 26 - Where they actually rank: 9
9. Minnesota 26 - Where they actually rank: 10
11. Washington 27 - Where they actually rank: 3
11. Cincinnati 27 - Where they actually rank: 16
11. Northwestern 27 - Where they actually rank: 12
14. South Florida 31 - Where they actually rank: 14
15. Pittsburgh 34 - Where they actually rank: 7
16. Colorado 38- Where they actually rank: 13

As you can see, this formula proves to be pretty accurate since the attendance of most schools match up with where they are expected to rank. There are three schools that seem to be underachieving- TCU, Boston College, and Cincinnati. But both TCU and Boston College have extremely small enrollment, which easily explains that. Cincinnati, however, has no excuse.

There are also two schools that averaged significantly higher than where they were expected. Washington should be 11th, but they are actually 3rd in attendance. That number is slightly skewed by the fact that they haven't been very successful on the field in the last decade. But they historically have had a lot of success, and when combined with a large population, a large student body, and just two pro sports teams, it's obvious why their attendance is so high. The other, more impressive overachiever is Pittsburgh, who hasn't had great on field success for decades, has a comparatively small population for a major city, and doesn't have a huge student population.

To be specific, and why it's even more impressive for Pitt, is that Pittsburgh has the smallest metro population of any area that has three major professional sports teams. That means it's difficult enough to sustain three pro sports teams (and three popular ones at that), not to mention a major college football program too.

Attendance being limited by being in a pro sports area can not be overstated. USC has had huge success on the field, 13 million people to draw from, and no NFL team providing competition, yet they still only draw 73,196 a game, which is roughly 30,000 less than what the best college towns draw. That number is also 20,000 below capacity for their stadium.

There are a few examples of how Pitt has actually done well in attendance. Arizona State has the most students on their main campus of anybody in the country with 60,000 students. They also have 4.3 million people in the metro area. Both numbers are double, or more than double, than Pitt, yet the Sun Devils average only 13,000 more fans per game.

Another example is Minnesota, who has 3.4 million people in the metro area, one million more than Pittsburgh, and 52,000 students on their main campus, twice that of Pittsburgh. Despite those advantages, the Golden Gophers average roughly 47,000 fans a game, less than the Panthers.

Highly regarded statistician Nate Silver wrote an article for the New York Times in which he determined how many fans each program had. Pitt was ranked No. 37 in the country with over 800,000 fans.

The five programs with the most fans were Ohio State (3.1 million), Michigan (2.9 million), Penn State (2.6 million), Notre Dame (2.3 million), and Texas (2.2 million). Notre Dame is the school that Catholics around the country follow so their popularity is obvious. The other four are a perfect storm for huge attendance.

All four have huge success, mostly because they have the money, through attendance, to have huge budgets. But one can easily see how they got those huge attendance numbers in the first place.

21 pittman71, Aug 4, 2017

This deserves to be pinned to the top of the board - and kept there permanently - as a reference point for anyone who thinks that they have the solution to increase Pitt's football attendance.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

There are maybe a couple unlikely scenarios that would increase it enough as to not make Heinz look and feel like shit for most Pitt games (mostly look) including its public perception bashing that comes with it.
In the meantime (lifetime) they are dumb not to at least try one of these temporary perception smoke and mirror ideas instead of continuing to trot the team out to a stadium that is too big and looks and feels like shit most games.

 

[1963Uninvited]

What looks worse? Empty yellow or a navy blue (or royal blue) tarp?

Whether they tarp or not, they shouldn't try to sell 70K tickets. Eliminate 20K tickets from the inventory which would allow Pitt to raise prices because such dirt-cheap offerings would no longer be available.

I remember at the Copa America in Philly, I had to pay $125 for a lower-level ticket. I would have much rather paid $50 or so for an upper but they closed the non-TV view upper deck, so I was "forced" into buying a more expensive ticket. They knew by using the full Lincoln Financial Field, all it would do is put more people in the upper deck for less of a cost and have a sparsely attended game. Instead, they had 50K and created a great atmosphere because 100% of the seats were full in the areas which were available.

This is 100% spot on.

 

[HailtoPitt]

55K is a best case scenario for a consistent Top 15-20 program and Pitt is probably never going to be consistently in the Top 15-20. If Pitt became TCU, lets say, then yes, I can see 55K there. But that's still 15K empty yellows.

Correct. Heinz is too large unless Pitt plays Penn State and Notre Dame every game. Filling a large stadium is a long term solution for Pitt, one likely not to happen with playing off campus and a lack of support from affluent alums and continued bone headed decision making from the admin.

 

[LivinWell]

As of last week I was guiding a young employee Pitt grad to take advantage of the 30% discount offered to recent graduates. We were looking on Pitt's website at the stadium for available season tickets. The number of open seats in the upper bowl between the 40s down low is troubling. Even the lower bowl at the 40s had plenty of seats available. Seems like very poor retention the year after PSU unless all of those seats were taken by PSU fans. If Pitt opens the season on a sour note with losses to PSU and OSU (reasonably likely with suspensions and a young team) it's going to be a long season attendance-wise unless we go on a serious run.

Two other things Pitt should consider. First, beg to schedule the annual Thursday night game as soon in September as possible. Before the weather turns cold and rainy and before the students get into test season. Consider cancelling Friday morning classes and labs; use the evening to build student spirit, invest in a student tailgate.

Second, beg to schedule the Thanksgiving weekend game against an ACC opponent that travels well. In my mind this would be VTech or UNC. Miami is just not going to move the dial on bringing fans.

 

[TD_istheman]

Pitt should invest in its football program for a change , try to win, see what that does for attendance! I don't mean an upset in a 7-5 season , who gives a shiit. How about a 10-2 seasons for a few years, with upsets thrown in. We have sucked for 34 years or so. We are lucky we have 25 000 at games for the crap our fan base has been fed, Pirate like, Nutting like, except and sad to say, they have had more success than we have in that 34 year time frame.

They were talking about the college football arms race. Bama was talking about its new state of the art recruiting building. We talked about our new 20g a year graphics guy. I found that funny if nobody else did

 

[OriginalEther]

What looks worse? Empty yellow or a navy blue (or royal blue) tarp?

Whether they tarp or not, they shouldn't try to sell 70K tickets. Eliminate 20K tickets from the inventory which would allow Pitt to raise prices because such dirt-cheap offerings would no longer be available.

I remember at the Copa America in Philly, I had to pay $125 for a lower-level ticket. I would have much rather paid $50 or so for an upper but they closed the non-TV view upper deck, so I was "forced" into buying a more expensive ticket. They knew by using the full Lincoln Financial Field, all it would do is put more people in the upper deck for less of a cost and have a sparsely attended game. Instead, they had 50K and created a great atmosphere because 100% of the seats were full in the areas which were available.

Along the same lines, I did not renew my tickets, for numerous reasons. One of the reasons, albeit minor, is the abundance of seats available.
Meaning, there is zero chance of me not being able to get seats again should I ever decide to change my mind.

If there were only 50k seats available instead of 70k, I might have had to make a different decision.

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

I am a long time season ticket holder. I am curious why some of you are so fixated on how many people are at the game.

Are you that insecure that you need reassurance you are using your time wisely?

I wonder how many of you actually go to games or just whine and whine.


Trillions of flies eat sh*t.... ( well you get it )

In the abstract I dig when there is a huge raucous crowd. I look back on games like the 03 VT game, and say "that rocked!"

In reality, in run of the mill games without a ton of meaning (which basically happens after we lose our second conference game), not having huge crowds doesn't dismay me. I kind of like not having to wait in the security line, or in the line for Primantis or the whiz troughs, or having shoulders digging into mine on each side of me in the stands (and people constantly getting up and walking across me in the aisle etc) l. And especially the ease of egress to from the parking lots when I leave.

If we can't win anything meaningful, may as well have convenience.

 

[DiehardPanther]

Pitt should invest in its football program for a change , try to win, see what that does for attendance! I don't mean an upset in a 7-5 season , who gives a shiit. How about a 10-2 seasons for a few years, with upsets thrown in. We have sucked for 34 years or so. We are lucky we have 25 000 at games for the crap our fan base has been fed, Pirate like, Nutting like, except and sad to say, they have had more success than we have in that 34 year time frame.

They were talking about the college football arms race. Bama was talking about its new stare of the art recruiting building. We talked about our new 20g a year graphics guy. I found that funny if nobody else did

Pitt does not invest more because not enough Pitt alums care. Pitt fans are more similar to BC and WF, than Clemson and FSU, but yet people like u expect Pitt to get their results.

 

[BuffetParrothead]

Along the same lines, I did not renew my tickets, for numerous reasons. One of the reasons, albeit minor, is the abundance of seats available.
Meaning, there is zero chance of me not being able to get seats again should I ever decide to change my mind.

If there were only 50k seats available instead of 70k, I might have had to make a different decision.

Congratulations you're a Great PITT fan!

fyi - Pls dont change your mind we'll do fine with 39.999 fans!

Unfortunately this is one of the reason why things probably wont change much until the current group of grumpy old fans move on and the new group of replacement PITT fans have a bit more spirit and energy!

Meanwhile I drive 600 rt to attend games buy season tickets pay $ 200 -$ 300 for a Northshore Hotel, spend my money on the Northshore prior to and after the games and this guy cant find a reason to buy season tickets and get his butt to a few games!

 

[Revenge Of The Noise]

Pitt does not invest more because not enough Pitt alums care. Pitt fans are more similar to BC and WF, than Clemson and FSU, but yet people like u expect Pitt to get their results.

Clemson and FSU fans would be just like us if they continually sucked. Maybe worse than us in fact. Those schools are in nicer weather areas with better recreational options than wasting their Saturdays on abysmally administered programs that have zero intent to win.

Sports fans are pretty much the same everywhere.

 

[Safety Blitz]

Build it any they will come.
The ND and PSU games prove fans will show if the product is compelling. Build a consistent ACC division contender and attendance will grow. I don't buy that BS that the city is a "pro" town or there is too much to do. Putting a high level team on the field will put butts in the seats.

 

[Cathedral Lawn Frisbee]

Look, be your own person. Lead don't follow!

 

[TD_istheman]

So you want us to keep buying pig ass for 15 bucks , and if we buy enough pig ass, maybe Pitt will upgrade the meat down the road , that's not how business works , good lord. You sell a good product and then you take the risk as a business owner , and people might decide this is something they can buy and enjoy. Pitt no longer teach a successful business model to students anymore ?

 

[MajorMajors]

So perhaps Pitt should consider only selling every-other seat, so the seat to your left is always available to throw your jacket on or to set down your nachos... Voila!! -- the stadium now looks full!

Go Pitt.

 

[cruzer]

This was somehow buried in a post from a week ago or so, but it is by Pittman71. An excellent analysis, facts, truths and our obstacles, but also how we likely aren't as bad as we are made out to be in regards to attendance. This is part 1 by Pittman71:

Monday, March 3, 2014
The Myth of Pitt Football Attendance

Pitt football attendance has taken many jabs for decades, but as I'm about to show, not only are there good reasons why Pitt's attendance is where it is, but also that the attendance is where it should be.

For the most part, the biggest factors in determining college football attendance are whether or not your program is theteam in the area, a large number of people in the area, including students, and on field success.


Average Attendance of BCS Programs in Cities with a Strong Pro Sports Presence

1. USC 73,196
2. UCLA 70,285
3. Washington 68,769
4. Arizona State 62,689
5. Miami 53,837
6. Stanford 50,726
7. Pittsburgh 49,741
8. California 49,329
9. Georgia Tech 49,077
10. Minnesota 47,797
11. TCU 43,598
12. Northwestern 39,307
13. Colorado 38,463
14. South Florida 34,702
15. Boston College 33,006
16. Cincinnati 31,771


Metro Population

1. USC 13 million
1. UCLA 13 million
3. Northwestern 9.5 million
4. TCU 6.7 million
5. Miami 5.7 million
6. Georgia Tech 5.5 million
7. Boston College 4.6 million
8. California 4.5 million
8. Stanford 4.5 million
10. Arizona State 4.3 million
11. Washington 3.5 million
12. Minnesota 3.4 million
13. South Florida 2.8 million
14. Colorado 2.6 million
15. Pittsburgh 2.4 million
16. Cincinnati 2.1 million


Main Campus Enrollment

1. Arizona State 59,794
2. Minnesota 51,853
3. South Florida 47,646
4. Washington 42,907
5. UCLA 41,812
6. USC 39,958
7. California 35,899
8. Cincinnati 33,329
9. Colorado 31,702
10. Pittsburgh 28,766
11. Georgia Tech 21,557
12. Northwestern 19,219
13. Stanford 15,877
14. Miami 15,657
15. Boston College 14,359
16. TCU 9,725


Top 25 Final Ranking in Last Ten Years

1. USC 8
2. TCU 6
3. Boston College 4
3. Cincinnati 4
3. Stanford 4
6. Miami FL 3
6. Arizona State 3
6. California 3
9. Georgia Tech 2
9. Pittsburgh 2
9. UCLA 2
12. Minnesota 1
12. Northwestern 1
12. Washington 1
15. Colorado 0
15. South Florida 0

If you combine these factors, this is where the attendance of each should rank, and where they do rank. I combined the ranking of the three previous categories (metro population, enrollment, success). The number to the right of their name if the combined rank. For instance, USC is 1st, 1st, and 6th, which gives them a score of 8. The lower the number, the higher the score in this case.

1. USC 8 - What they actually rank: 1
2. UCLA 15 - What they actually rank: 2
3. Arizona State 17 - What they actually rank: 4
4. California 21 - What they actually rank: 8
5. TCU 22 - Where they actually rank: 11
6. Stanford 24 - Where they actually rank: 6
7. Boston College 25 - Where they actually rank: 16
7. Miami 25 - Where they actually rank: 5
9. Georgia Tech 26 - Where they actually rank: 9
9. Minnesota 26 - Where they actually rank: 10
11. Washington 27 - Where they actually rank: 3
11. Cincinnati 27 - Where they actually rank: 16
11. Northwestern 27 - Where they actually rank: 12
14. South Florida 31 - Where they actually rank: 14
15. Pittsburgh 34 - Where they actually rank: 7
16. Colorado 38- Where they actually rank: 13

As you can see, this formula proves to be pretty accurate since the attendance of most schools match up with where they are expected to rank. There are three schools that seem to be underachieving- TCU, Boston College, and Cincinnati. But both TCU and Boston College have extremely small enrollment, which easily explains that. Cincinnati, however, has no excuse.

There are also two schools that averaged significantly higher than where they were expected. Washington should be 11th, but they are actually 3rd in attendance. That number is slightly skewed by the fact that they haven't been very successful on the field in the last decade. But they historically have had a lot of success, and when combined with a large population, a large student body, and just two pro sports teams, it's obvious why their attendance is so high. The other, more impressive overachiever is Pittsburgh, who hasn't had great on field success for decades, has a comparatively small population for a major city, and doesn't have a huge student population.

To be specific, and why it's even more impressive for Pitt, is that Pittsburgh has the smallest metro population of any area that has three major professional sports teams. That means it's difficult enough to sustain three pro sports teams (and three popular ones at that), not to mention a major college football program too.

Attendance being limited by being in a pro sports area can not be overstated. USC has had huge success on the field, 13 million people to draw from, and no NFL team providing competition, yet they still only draw 73,196 a game, which is roughly 30,000 less than what the best college towns draw. That number is also 20,000 below capacity for their stadium.

There are a few examples of how Pitt has actually done well in attendance. Arizona State has the most students on their main campus of anybody in the country with 60,000 students. They also have 4.3 million people in the metro area. Both numbers are double, or more than double, than Pitt, yet the Sun Devils average only 13,000 more fans per game.

Another example is Minnesota, who has 3.4 million people in the metro area, one million more than Pittsburgh, and 52,000 students on their main campus, twice that of Pittsburgh. Despite those advantages, the Golden Gophers average roughly 47,000 fans a game, less than the Panthers.

Highly regarded statistician Nate Silver wrote an article for the New York Times in which he determined how many fans each program had. Pitt was ranked No. 37 in the country with over 800,000 fans.

The five programs with the most fans were Ohio State (3.1 million), Michigan (2.9 million), Penn State (2.6 million), Notre Dame (2.3 million), and Texas (2.2 million). Notre Dame is the school that Catholics around the country follow so their popularity is obvious. The other four are a perfect storm for huge attendance.

All four have huge success, mostly because they have the money, through attendance, to have huge budgets. But one can easily see how they got those huge attendance numbers in the first place.

21 pittman71, Aug 4, 2017

The solution seems obvious. First home game the promotion is "Blow Up Doll Day". Every fan entering the stadium gets a blow up doll. Blow it up, stick it in the empty seat next to you...viola.. full house. The added benefit is that the Blow Up dolls will be very popular at the post game tail gate party.

Cruzer