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The end of this game proves how much FTs matter

So what did Jay Wright do that night to ensure his players didn't miss?
Nothing. Other than making sure his roster was made up of good shooters.

Which is exactly what Jamie Dixon has done at Pitt now. Make sure his roster is made up of good FT shooters.
 
In the game that Scottie Reynolds' Villanova team beat Pitt 78-76 in the Elite Eight..... Villanova was 22-for-23 at the FT line.

Imagine the outcome of the game if they were an average 16-for-23 from the line?

Pitt was better in EVERY aspect of that game than Villanova... except for the FT line. Scottie Reynolds doesn't even have the opportunity for an end-to-end play to win the game if he and his teammates were average at the FT line instead of excellent.

And it is the one area of the game that Pitt absolutely had no ability to do anything about. It was the one skillset for Villanova that was completely independent of anything Pitt could do to counter it.

22 of 78 points for Villanova were at the stripe. Roughly 30% of their scoring. People who think that FT shooting is minor or secondary to a team's success just crazy.

A bad FT shooting team has to be SO much better at everything else compared to their opponent in order to overcome it. Especially with games being called tightly and more fouls being called.
Post of the year right here. Exactly my point, but you have said it much better than I. Free throw shooting absolutely killed Pitt year after year. It is crucial to winning and realistically should not be something that players struggle with.
 
Nothing. Other than making sure his roster was made up of good shooters.

Which is exactly what Jamie Dixon has done at Pitt now. Make sure his roster is made up of good FT shooters.

In other words.... "recruit to shoot". Finally.
 
Nothing. Other than making sure his roster was made up of good shooters.

Which is exactly what Jamie Dixon has done at Pitt now. Make sure his roster is made up of good FT shooters.
Jay Wright recruiting 95% FT shooters? If you say so.

Do you believe truly that Jamie knew that Jeter would be shooting 92%, and that Young and Artis would be this good? Young shot like in the 60s last year. I think you are ascribing too much to Jamie on this. You honestly think Jamie saw Mike his JR year and thought, you know what, this guy will probably round out to be a good FT shooter some day.
 
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Post of the year right here. Exactly my point, but you have said it much better than I. Free throw shooting absolutely killed Pitt year after year. It is crucial to winning and realistically should not be something that players struggle with.
Is Pitt that much worse than other teams? So, if I follow you guys correctly, we should have passed on Blair (60%) his FT shooting was subpar the EE year.
 
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Jay Wright recruiting 95% FT shooters? If you say so.
He recruited good shooters. Shooters that are capable of a 22-for-23 night.

Jamie has recently recruited good shooters. Shooters that are capable of that kind of night.

When Ben and Jamie first got to Pitt, their mantra was "recruit to shoot". Jamie finally has a team that lives up to that mantra.

Especially with the new rules, "recruit to shoot" is more vital than ever.
 
Is Pitt that much worse than other teams? So, if I follow you guys correctly, we should have passed on Blair (60%) his FT shooting was subpar the EE year.

The 2002-2003 Pitt Panthers were 301st in the nation in FT shooting. Yeah, it really was that much worse than other teams.

And in the tournament, the games were called closer... which meant more FTs for both teams.... which exacerbated our disadvantage much more so than the Big East games.
 
The 2002-2003 Pitt Panthers were 301st in the nation in FT shooting. Yeah, it really was that much worse than other teams.

And in the tournament, the games were called closer... which meant more FTs for both teams.... which exacerbated our disadvantage much more so than the Big East games.
so clearly, Ben and Jamie never should have recruited the guys that we built this program with. Blair, 60%? Pffft. A bum.
 
We could've made several Final Fours if we would have had mediocre free throw shooting. We were a disgrace in that aspect for a decade. We now have THE BEST free throw shooting team in America. This team is built for a deep tourney run. Pitt will be a really bad matchup for almost any team in March.

This is not true. Our foul shooting was not a disgrace by any national standard. We were quite average for almost all years in fact.
 
In the game that Scottie Reynolds' Villanova team beat Pitt 78-76 in the Elite Eight..... Villanova was 22-for-23 at the FT line.

Imagine the outcome of the game if they were an average 16-for-23 from the line?

Pitt was better in EVERY aspect of that game than Villanova... except for the FT line. Scottie Reynolds doesn't even have the opportunity for an end-to-end play to win the game if he and his teammates were average at the FT line instead of excellent.

And it is the one area of the game that Pitt absolutely had no ability to do anything about. It was the one skillset for Villanova that was completely independent of anything Pitt could do to counter it.

22 of 78 points for Villanova were at the stripe. Roughly 30% of their scoring. People who think that FT shooting is minor or secondary to a team's success just crazy.

A bad FT shooting team has to be SO much better at everything else compared to their opponent in order to overcome it. Especially with games being called tightly and more fouls being called.

Actually, it is not true that we were better in EVERY aspect of that game.

Nearly every aspect of that game was very even in fact. And of course, Villanova's foul shooting was exceptional.
 
so clearly, Ben and Jamie never should have recruited the guys that we built this program with. Blair, 60%? Pffft. A bum.
That's a ridiculous assertion that has nothing to do with what I said.

Ben and Jamie were building a program. You get the players you can get. Especially with the way the Big East was officiated back then.

But it is a different game this year. Which is why a team like Virginia that was built like the old Pitt Big East teams is having a little bit of difficulty.

Jamie has built a Pitt roster this year that is made for the way the game is today and how it is called.
 
And in the tournament, the games were called closer... which meant more FTs for both teams.... which exacerbated our disadvantage much more so than the Big East games.

This is blatantly false and has been proved as such several times in the past. Please stop with this myth.
 
Actually, it is not true that we were better in EVERY aspect of that game.

Nearly every aspect of that game was very even in fact. And of course, Villanova's foul shooting was exceptional.
They shot like 20+% higher than their normal rate that day, but yeah, he knew that when recruiting them.
 
That's a ridiculous assertion that has nothing to do with what I said.

Ben and Jamie were building a program. You get the players you can get. Especially with the way the Big East was officiated back then.

But it is a different game this year. Which is why a team like Virginia that was built like the old Pitt Big East teams is having a little bit of difficulty.

Jamie has built a Pitt roster this year that is made for the way the game is today and how it is called.
ARRRRRRRRRRRRGGHHHHHHHHHHH
So you get the players you can get, but if we didn't get the players we got, we wouldn't have had the results we got, minus the bad FTs which kept us from achieving what we could have done if we hadn't recruited those players. blalblahblahvlah
I haven't see Virginia play yet, missing FTs? I just checked, they are shooting 75% FTs.
So Jamie knew, 3-4 years ago when recruiting these players, that they would be good FT shooters, because he knew we were going to the ACC?

ps, if Jay Wright knew he recruited 90% FT shooters, how come they shot so much lower than that as a team that year? (Hint, on a game by game basis, there is great variability, largely driven by who is taking the shots). If Maia was shooting more and getting fouled, would our % go up or down? Is Maia on the floor in late game situations?
 
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That's pretty arbitrary. If we hit one more shot, one less turnover, get one more stop, if Nasir doesn't foul, if we don't get a shot clock violation. There were like 50 things that could have changed the outcome. Even if we were a better FT shooting team in general, that doesn't mean Brown hits the one at the end. And if we can magically add FTs to us, what if Butler hits 2 more? It totally depends on so many factors, saying if we could only improves FTs, which is the hardest thing to improve if you have bad FT shooters, it just doesn't make sense. The only way to improve FT shooting on a team, is to have better FT shooters.

What do you think Dixon is doing differently this year than past years?

I don't know why this is so hard for people to understand.
 
Everything matters more when it's needed. FTs matter less when your up 20, more when your up by 2. Defense matters less when you are scoring 85, more when you are scoring 65.

Never understood why people argue so much about these things. Everything matters, sometimes more than others.
 
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Everything matters more when it's needed. FTs matter less when your up 20, more when your up by 2. Defense matters less when you are scoring 85, more when you are scoring 65.

Never understood why people argue so much about these things. Everything matters, sometimes more than others.

I think Free Throws bother folks more than other plays, because of the nature of them.

Play stops, the player walks up to the line, everything get quiet, then the player shoots without being contested. There's "an expectation" that there are two free points to be scored, and that we should actually get these points, unless of course we blow it.
 
Think of making one more free throw against Butler. No doubt we make it to the Final Four if we win that game. Marquette - 3 point loss, free throws would have helped. I'm just saying, you will never win in March if you're a bad free throw shooting team, even if you have 5 superstars that just can't shoot free throws.

I just personally think if our free throw shooting was anywhere near respectable, there were numerous tourney games we would have pulled out instead of losing close games.
Don't try and talk sense to some of these morons, I made the point three years ago about free throws and the so called experts and the one stat geek stated they don't matter, fools.
 
Yes you did.
Nope, never did. Would not. Of course they matter. I have always said they matter. You and others keep changing other people's point to being "FTs don't matter" because apparently you don't understand what they are saying, and that's the only way you are able to process it.
 
Don't try and talk sense to some of these morons, I made the point three years ago about free throws and the so called experts and the one stat geek stated they don't matter, fools.
it's funny that you never understood the argument because it went over your head, but you call the people you disagreed with fools. Just because someone is smarter than you, and you can't comprehend what they are saying, it does not make that person a fool.
 
it's funny that you never understood the argument because it went over your head, but you call the people you disagreed with fools. Just because someone is smarter than you, and you can't comprehend what they are saying, it does not make that person a fool.
I comprehend everything, I've never been wrong in my life. Thats why I know free throws matter. That was the argument. Moron says what.
 
so if this happens to many coaches in many sports, then I'm right. It's arbitrary and silly. Saying that scoring more points than fewer points is hardly an earth shattering revelation.

I'll ask you too. What is Jamie doing differently this year than in our EE year?

Well Michael Young has his FT avg up by 20%, 66 to I believe 86% so I am assuming he spent many hours this summer practicing. That's a significant jump and maybe Jamie pushed him to get better at the line?
 
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Offensive efficiency ratings are based on Points Per Possession.

A team that shoots FTs at 80% gets 1.6 Points Per Possession on possessions where they are fouled.

A team that shoots FTs at 60% gets 1.2 Points Per Possession on possessions where they are fouled.

The average game this year is about 70 possessions. If a team theoretically fouled Pitt every possession, Pitt would average 112 points per game. Because of this, teams can't play Pitt as tightly, because putting Pitt at the line results in an average 1.6 points per possession when it occurs. Since teams can't play Pitt as tightly, it opens up the rest of Pitt's offense even more. It becomes imperative for the opposition to defend Pitt without fouling. This opens up things on the floor during the half court.

There's a reason NBA teams resorted to "Hack a Shaq" when O'Neill was in his prime. Because he was a 40% FT shooter, every possession where he was fouled had an expected return of only 0.8 points. You hold a team to 0.8 points per possession, and you will go undefeated. Putting in bench players with the only instruction being to foul Shaq became an effective strategy. So effective, that it was given it's own name.

Mike Young shooting 87% at the line makes it a very bad idea to foul him. Giving up 1.74 points on average when you foul Mike Young forces the opposition to defend him a little softer... which in turn opens up his FG shooting game - in turn improving those percentages.

A good FT shooting team will put pressure on the other team to defend without contact. Which is VERY hard to do.
 
And yet, you haven't provided any quotes from old threads to back up your point...
I promise that many of these guys will be perplexed to what Dixon is doing different when the current group of guys finish their careers. Why did Jamie stop coaching FTs?????? We used to be so gooooood!
 
Mike Young shooting 87% at the line makes it a very bad idea to foul him. Giving up 1.74 points on average when you foul Mike Young forces the opposition to defend him a little softer... which in turn opens up his FG shooting game - in turn improving those percentages.

Your math doesn't quite check out. Some of those fouls will get you a 1-and-1 when you are less likely to make both. You're also using a team FT%, which has been discussed here as a silly idea. Fouling Maia is actually still a great idea, as you mention with your Shaq example. Players in the paint are much more likely to get fouled in the act of shooting than a guard like Smith.

I don't think a lot of teams are going to back off defending Artis, Young, and Jeter just because they can make FTs. It is more of a double-whammy that when they get fouled, they can actually make the shots. I think, if anything, it changes their offensive mindset more than it changes their defenders' mindsets. They can make all kinds of offensive moves and not worry about running into contact, knowing that they can draw the foul and make the FTs. A guy like Maia has to know he'll stay in control and get a decent look, because he's far less likely to cash in at the line.

I can't imagine there are a lot of players that get extra defensive space because they are so good at FTs, especially if that player is taking high percentage field goal attempts like Young and Artis.
 
Your math doesn't quite check out. Some of those fouls will get you a 1-and-1 when you are less likely to make both. You're also using a team FT%, which has been discussed here as a silly idea. Fouling Maia is actually still a great idea, as you mention with your Shaq example. Players in the paint are much more likely to get fouled in the act of shooting than a guard like Smith.

I don't think a lot of teams are going to back off defending Artis, Young, and Jeter just because they can make FTs. It is more of a double-whammy that when they get fouled, they can actually make the shots. I think, if anything, it changes their offensive mindset more than it changes their defenders' mindsets. They can make all kinds of offensive moves and not worry about running into contact, knowing that they can draw the foul and make the FTs. A guy like Maia has to know he'll stay in control and get a decent look, because he's far less likely to cash in at the line.

I can't imagine there are a lot of players that get extra defensive space because they are so good at FTs, especially if that player is taking high percentage field goal attempts like Young and Artis.
You're right about Maia.... which is why you will never see him on the floor in the final 2 minutes of a game that Pitt leads (that isn't a blowout). The worst FT shooter on the floor for Pitt at the end of games will be around 77%.

As for Young.... both the announcers during the game alluded to the fact that teams can't bang Young inside as much, because of his FT shooting. Brian Gregory, GT's coach, even said they had to alter the way they defended in the final minutes of the game because they couldn't risk fouling.

Good FT shooting impacts the way the other teams defend you. It is something that is going to be key on Thursday against Louisville, I believe. The new rules and emphasis messed with Louisville's press against Clemson yesterday. Physical play in their press is now getting called, they aren't getting away with it anymore like they always did. These new rules that basically have eliminated hand-checking ... and also the elimination of the 5-second rule ... have been harmful to teams like Louisville that rely on pressure and some tolerance of physical contact. (The same thing is hurting Virginia, by the way. They're getting called for lots of fouls they never got called for in the past).

Combine that with a team like Pitt that will make the FTs when Louisville gets called for their hand-checking, and I give Pitt a much better chance on Thursday than most will give them.
 
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