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The state of College Basketball in the 2020s

Sean Miller Fan

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Coach K was asked this week about the ACC getting 3 in thing and he didn't answer that question specifically but instead made some very interesting, but cynical comments about the state of college basketball and its future. Poni and Page discussed this and their own opinions on the pregame and I wanted to start a thread to see what everyone else thought about any problems you think the current game is facing. I mean this is probably the weakest college basketball has been......ever? Poni said if they dropped Page's Pitt team into this season, they'd probably win the NC. I mean, yea, who would beat them? And you can say that about several Pitt teams in that era.

So what's happened? Well, I'm going to tell you what I think and go a little deeper than saying "its cyclical" or "it wasnt a great freshman class." There is truth to that but I think there are 2 reasons why we are seeing such mediocrity and parity.

1. The unintended consequence of the college football inspired conference realignment was that on the basketball side, the following programs were added to "major college basketball:" TCU, Creighton, Wichita State, Xavier, Butler, Houston, SMU, etc. Then throw in the addition of VCU and Davidson to the A10 from mid-major leagues, you have a lot more teams now that can sell "major D1 ball." You are even seeing places like East Carolina and Tulane trying to rise up by recruiting players who wouldn't normally bat an eyelash at them. Remember that Big last year who picked ECU over Duke and us?

2. Quite simply, there are far more teams taking basketball seriously. Sure, a lot of them are buying players like LSU and Auburn but what you have is a lot of non-traditional programs which have recruited NCAAT talent to places where these kids didnt go 10 years ago. There's more teams going after the same number of kids. You look at Seton Hall, Providence, Butler, Creighton, DePaul, TCU, LSU, Auburn, etc. Georgia and Washington got 2 of the Top 5 frosh. That would NEVER happen in football. College basketball recruiting has become extremely competitive and kids just dont pick a school based on historical tradition or recent success. They also dont stockpile like in football recruiting.

So, in closing, I think we are seeing what we are seeing is more of a byproduct of an "expansion" of major college basketball and thus watering down the level of play, at least at the very top. More teams selling "major D1 ball" and existing teams which have invested big-time money into winning. 10-15 years ago, maybe you had 30 programs which would get the majority of Top 150-250 players. Now it seems there's 70-80 teams fighting hard for those same kids. The only solution to this if you are a traditional or semi-traditonal program facing lean times, is to simply pump more money into it. You have to differentiate yourself from a VCU, Creighton, Auburn, Seton Hall, etc. But can you? Maybe not and this is just the new game.
 
Coach K was asked this week about the ACC getting 3 in thing and he didn't answer that question specifically but instead made some very interesting, but cynical comments about the state of college basketball and its future. Poni and Page discussed this and their own opinions on the pregame and I wanted to start a thread to see what everyone else thought about any problems you think the current game is facing. I mean this is probably the weakest college basketball has been......ever? Poni said if they dropped Page's Pitt team into this season, they'd probably win the NC. I mean, yea, who would beat them? And you can say that about several Pitt teams in that era.

So what's happened? Well, I'm going to tell you what I think and go a little deeper than saying "its cyclical" or "it wasnt a great freshman class." There is truth to that but I think there are 2 reasons why we are seeing such mediocrity and parity.

1. The unintended consequence of the college football inspired conference realignment was that on the basketball side, the following programs were added to "major college basketball:" TCU, Creighton, Wichita State, Xavier, Butler, Houston, SMU, etc. Then throw in the addition of VCU and Davidson to the A10 from mid-major leagues, you have a lot more teams now that can sell "major D1 ball." You are even seeing places like East Carolina and Tulane trying to rise up by recruiting players who wouldn't normally bat an eyelash at them. Remember that Big last year who picked ECU over Duke and us?

2. Quite simply, there are far more teams taking basketball seriously. Sure, a lot of them are buying players like LSU and Auburn but what you have is a lot of non-traditional programs which have recruited NCAAT talent to places where these kids didnt go 10 years ago. There's more teams going after the same number of kids. You look at Seton Hall, Providence, Butler, Creighton, DePaul, TCU, LSU, Auburn, etc. Georgia and Washington got 2 of the Top 5 frosh. That would NEVER happen in football. College basketball recruiting has become extremely competitive and kids just dont pick a school based on historical tradition or recent success. They also dont stockpile like in football recruiting.

So, in closing, I think we are seeing what we are seeing is more of a byproduct of an "expansion" of major college basketball and thus watering down the level of play, at least at the very top. More teams selling "major D1 ball" and existing teams which have invested big-time money into winning. 10-15 years ago, maybe you had 30 programs which would get the majority of Top 150-250 players. Now it seems there's 70-80 teams fighting hard for those same kids. The only solution to this if you are a traditional or semi-traditonal program facing lean times, is to simply pump more money into it. You have to differentiate yourself from a VCU, Creighton, Auburn, Seton Hall, etc. But can you? Maybe not and this is just the new game.
And there is a problem in college basketball because of any of your above speculations?? Would you rather it be like college FB where only 3 or 4 schools are vying for the national championship?

only thing hurting college BB is one and downs and that’s not really hurting it.
 
I think there are two intertwined factors in this: coaches are under immense pressure to win and win now, and players are increasingly pursuing transfers both up and down in program quality.

Obviously places like RMU have lost talent to "better" programs, but Pitt has also had some weak talent leave and go play at lower levels. Coaches either can't or won't push guys hard or withhold minutes without assuming they are going to quit (think Khem Birch or Stevenson). Likewise, coaches don't see much point in putting in the grind to coach a kid for 2-3 years before he is actually productive (think Gary McGhee).

I also think there's some impact from the increase in the number of televised games and the ability to stream games on ESPN3 no matter where you are in the country. You don't need to play for UNC or Kansas to get yourself on TV so it kind of democratizes the league.
 
And there is a problem in college basketball because of any of your above speculations?? Would you rather it be like college FB where only 3 or 4 schools are vying for the national championship?

only thing hurting college BB is one and downs and that’s not really hurting it.

Its the exact opposite of college football and I don't think that's good either. In college football, all the best players go to 6 or 7 schools. In college basketball, they are spread out, almost evenly between 60 or 70 teams. I mean there is still your blue bloods who get the 1 and Dones but since they are mostly freshmen, they can be beat.

The "expansion" of major universities taking basketball seriously has watered everything down.
 
There are 3-4 ESPN stations and then you have the Big 10 network, Fox Sports 1, CBS Sports, NBC Sports. I probably missed some also. There was non stop hoop today from noon until 10:00pm tipoffs. Every conference is now getting air time so the above comments are correct. Kids can go anywhere and are guaranteed that their parents and friends will see them on television.
 
Lends itself to having a true tournament where maybe 20 teams have a legit chance - and not just as a Cinderella. Definitely some good here.
 
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Its the exact opposite of college football and I don't think that's good either. In college football, all the best players go to 6 or 7 schools. In college basketball, they are spread out, almost evenly between 60 or 70 teams. I mean there is still your blue bloods who get the 1 and Dones but since they are mostly freshmen, they can be beat.

The "expansion" of major universities taking basketball seriously has watered everything down.
the fact there are more good teams is great for college hoops. no dominant team, like the old UCLA is good. A virginia can win a National Championship., means a Pitt can too !
 
the fact there are more good teams is great for college hoops. no dominant team, like the old UCLA is good. A virginia can win a National Championship., means a Pitt can too !

Yeah, I truly don't see a problem here. Parity is good. Makes it all the more important to have a good recruiting coaching staff.
 
Yeah, I truly don't see a problem here. Parity is good. Makes it all the more important to have a good recruiting coaching staff.

Top much parity isnt though. You need to have some level of dominant teams. No, not like college football where only 6-7 teams have a chance but when you have no dominant teams at all, casual fans lose interest and ratings go down.

With the parity, we also have watered-down play since the best players have spread themselves among like 70 teams making the games more boring since nobody can score.

I think the fact that every game is on TV has something to do with the recruiting parity but there's more to it as I have said.
 
The proliferation of TV coverage has led to really advanced video scouting systems. I heard a comment during the volleyball season that a player could pick an opposing player and immediately get access to clips of every time that player touched the ball the entire year. If there's that kind of tracking for volleyball, imagine what they have in MBB.

Every sport has had a huge focus on defense in the last 20-30 years. In MBB, it was so significant, they had to change the rules and the shot clock to compensate for it.

Today it isn't just about who has more talent, it is about who has better prep.
 
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The proliferation of TV coverage has led to really advanced video scouting systems. I heard a comment during the volleyball season that a player could pick an opposing player and immediately get access to clips of every time that player touched the ball the entire year. If there's that kind of tracking for volleyball, imagine what they have in MBB.

Every sport has had a huge focus on defense in the last 20-30 years. In MBB, it was so significant, they had to change the rules and the shot clock to compensate for it.

Today it isn't just about who has more talent, it is about who has better prep.

While that may be true, that doesn't explain why kids today will choose to play at Houston, VCU, or Penn State over like Wake Forest and GT. The spreading out of talent between too many schools is the #1 reason I think the game is where its at.
 
While that may be true, that doesn't explain why kids today will choose to play at Houston, VCU, or Penn State over like Wake Forest and GT. The spreading out of talent between too many schools is the #1 reason I think the game is where its at.

No, but it ameliorates the benefit of true talent. Second tier players can be more competitive today than they might have been in the past.

If everyone memorizes the answers to the test, there’s not much need to be smart. (Look at the Astros!)

Obviously basketball is dynamic so talent still plays a huge role, but it’s not all about instinct and improvisation or even coaching strategy like it may have been decades ago.
 
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One and done is a killer for the elite schools. Duke has to reload every year. The talent is there, but it's raw. When guys like Zion went pro out of high school, it forced the Dukes of the world to take the best 4-4.5 star kids instead. Duke would still have some of the best talent in college basketball, but they'd be there 2, 3, even 4 years. As a result, those top teams were often trotting out veteran squads that even the second tier teams in their leagues had trouble playing with. A lot of current 3.5, and 4 star kids know that they're likely to get buried at the elite schools, so they go where they know they'll get a chance to play. Players are no longer willing to sit on the bench for 3 years hoping to start as a senior either. Players are transferring like never before. In this era, it's crazy to redshirt a player for any reason other than injury..
 
SMF, WTF is going on with you in this thread? I'm not going to get
into your basic premise and explanations in your post, BUT.....
I am going to get into how and the way you approached your
ideas. You actually started your ideas with phrases like I think.
also use of the word probably, and better yet....I wanted to start a
thread to see what everyone else thought.
Is this the start of a new
approach by you? I sure hope so.

Now I gotta tell ya, it's totally refreshing to see you in this light.
I will go out on a limb and guess that the attacks and push backs
(many of them nasty) that come your way might fizzle out if
you continue posting this way. Opinion as opposed to fact.
 
While that may be true, that doesn't explain why kids today will choose to play at Houston, VCU, or Penn State over like Wake Forest and GT. The spreading out of talent between too many schools is the #1 reason I think the game is where its at.
Because they can play minute one as opposed to going to a top 10 program and waiting to play.
Simple!
We didn't need you with you degree PHD of Stupidity to explain that to us!
 
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