Tuesday could break ACC tourney hopes

[Pitt666]

Right now, Duke and Pitt represent the only chances for quad 1 home wins for the ACC. Depending on outcome and margin of victory, things could take a bad turn for an already questionable ACC. Torvik has Pitt at 28. Would a 20 point loss drop them to sub 30. In Torvik yes. The net has been kind to Pitt, but likely has Pitt within 10 on the road Tuesday night. A blowout, which happened to multiple top 25 teams is more meaningful to higher ranked net teams, and could drop Pitt close to low 20s/high 30s. As such, a blowout loss would mean only beating Duke at home would be a q1 win and bubble ACC teams would need to win on the road, which is also limited, for q1 chances (at Duke, at Pitt, at SMu, at Clemson, at UNc, at LVille). FSU is close to road q1 now, but likely to fall. Stanford has an outside chance at being top 75 by years end.

Conversely, a Pitt upset and they will likely be favored theoretically by Torvik to go 20-0 in conference. A make or break game for sure. May the odds be ever in our favor.

 

[pittchagg]

I don’t think there’s anything “make or break” about this game for Pitt on Tuesday, but it’s certainly a big opportunity.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Right now, Duke and Pitt represent the only chances for quad 1 home wins for the ACC. Depending on outcome and margin of victory, things could take a bad turn for an already questionable ACC. Torvik has Pitt at 28. Would a 20 point loss drop them to sub 30. In Torvik yes. The net has been kind to Pitt, but likely has Pitt within 10 on the road Tuesday night. A blowout, which happened to multiple top 25 teams is more meaningful to higher ranked net teams, and could drop Pitt close to low 20s/high 30s. As such, a blowout loss would mean only beating Duke at home would be a q1 win and bubble ACC teams would need to win on the road, which is also limited, for q1 chances (at Duke, at Pitt, at SMu, at Clemson, at UNc, at LVille). FSU is close to road q1 now, but likely to fall. Stanford has an outside chance at being top 75 by years end.

Conversely, a Pitt upset and they will likely be favored theoretically by Torvik to go 20-0 in conference. A make or break game for sure. May the odds be ever in our favor.

Barring a collapse, Duke, Pitt, and Clemson are near locks regardless of Tuesday's outcome. UNC is in pretty good shape to be team #4 and there's a slight possibility for 5. Wake/SMU/FSU

 

[pittchagg]

Barring a collapse, Duke, Pitt, and Clemson are near locks regardless of Tuesday's outcome. UNC is in pretty good shape to be team #4 and there's a slight possibility for 5. Wake/SMU/FSU

Louisville.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Louisville.

Yea

 

[Pitt666]

Well, I will add for as “down” as the ACC is accused of being, there are 10 teams without a q3 or q4 loss remaining. The difficulty is lack of q1 chances remaining, but still room for a dark horse nc state/Virginia to make up ground. Wake also hanging around.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Well, I will add for as “down” as the ACC is accused of being, there are 10 teams without a q3 or q4 loss remaining. The difficulty is lack of q1 chances remaining, but still room for a dark horse nc state/Virginia to make up ground. Wake also hanging around.

There is a slim to no chance for NC State or UVA to make the Big Dance as an at large.

6 teams in contention from the ACC as of now.

Duke
Pitt
Clemson
Louisville
SMU
UNC

 

[SteelBowl70]

Right now, Duke and Pitt represent the only chances for quad 1 home wins for the ACC. Depending on outcome and margin of victory, things could take a bad turn for an already questionable ACC. Torvik has Pitt at 28. Would a 20 point loss drop them to sub 30. In Torvik yes. The net has been kind to Pitt, but likely has Pitt within 10 on the road Tuesday night. A blowout, which happened to multiple top 25 teams is more meaningful to higher ranked net teams, and could drop Pitt close to low 20s/high 30s. As such, a blowout loss would mean only beating Duke at home would be a q1 win and bubble ACC teams would need to win on the road, which is also limited, for q1 chances (at Duke, at Pitt, at SMu, at Clemson, at UNc, at LVille). FSU is close to road q1 now, but likely to fall. Stanford has an outside chance at being top 75 by years end.

Conversely, a Pitt upset and they will likely be favored theoretically by Torvik to go 20-0 in conference. A make or break game for sure. May the odds be ever in our favor.

Kenpom has Duke 13.5 over Pitt plus whatever home court advantage is factored in

 

[PittMed]

Kenpom has Duke 13.5 over Pitt plus whatever home court advantage is factored in

Just win and all will be good.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Kenpom has Duke 13.5 over Pitt plus whatever home court advantage is factored in

That isn't right. You can't just subtract the two teams' ratings to get a predicted margin of victory, because the ratings are based on 100 possessions, and games don't have 100 possessions.

He actually predicts Duke to win 78-66.

 

[SteelBowl70]

That isn't right. You can't just subtract the two teams' ratings to get a predicted margin of victory, because the ratings are based on 100 possessions, and games don't have 100 possessions.

He actually predicts Duke to win 78-66.

Thanks - I didn’t realize that

 

[Pitt666]

There is a slim to no chance for NC State or UVA to make the Big Dance as an at large.

6 teams in contention from the ACC as of now.

Duke
Pitt
Clemson
Louisville
SMU
UNC

Yes I agree slim, but technically a small path. The issue is Virginia/FSU/NCstate only have 4 q1 games left. If Pitt loses and drops a few, that lowers opps for wins even lower. In contrast, LSU and other sec teams have 13 q1 games left. B12 teams have 9-10 left. B10 10-12 q1 chances. The other issue is there are virtually no remaining chances for bad losses for any of those bubble teams and most of the b12/b10/sec do not have any q3/4 losses either. Im thinking more like 4 ACC teams now.

 

[Chairman Moe]

That isn't right. You can't just subtract the two teams' ratings to get a predicted margin of victory, because the ratings are based on 100 possessions, and games don't have 100 possessions.

He actually predicts Duke to win 78-66.

Joe, do you think that Tuesday's game will be that low-scoring? I'm not asking as a bettor; just wondering if this will be a game won more by each team's defense. I have only watched highlight moments of Duke's games other than yesterday's game @ SMU when I watched a bit of the first half. Who would you suggest we use to guard Cooper? Zack? Do we go zone?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Joe, do you think that Tuesday's game will be that low-scoring? I'm not asking as a bettor; just wondering if this will be a game won more by each team's defense. I have only watched highlight moments of Duke's games other than yesterday's game @ SMU when I watched a bit of the first half. Who would you suggest we use to guard Cooper? Zack? Do we go zone?

Duke is really good defensively, and unlike some of their teams in the past they are playing pretty slowly this year, so that will hold the score down. I think that prediction is a little too low, but I'm not expecting 98-88 or something like that.

I don't expect us to play much zone, unless we get into foul trouble or the game becomes a complete disaster. But Flagg is, of course, the problem. Guillermo "should" be guarding him. And maybe they try him on him in the hopes that his length bothers him. But if you put Austin on Flagg then who does Guillermo guard? It will be interesting because Duke isn't really big in the way that people usually think about a team being big, but they also don't play anyone shorter than 6-5.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Fix to mypost-- UNC #35 KenP and #49 Torvik

 

[SteelBowl70]

Duke favored by 14.5

 

[FireballZ]

Duke is really good defensively, and unlike some of their teams in the past they are playing pretty slowly this year, so that will hold the score down. I think that prediction is a little too low, but I'm not expecting 98-88 or something like that.

I don't expect us to play much zone, unless we get into foul trouble or the game becomes a complete disaster. But Flagg is, of course, the problem. Guillermo "should" be guarding him. And maybe they try him on him in the hopes that his length bothers him. But if you put Austin on Flagg then who does Guillermo guard? It will be interesting because Duke isn't really big in the way that people usually think about a team being big, but they also don't play anyone shorter than 6-5.

The Pitt team total is only 63.5. That's very alluring.

 

[Atilla Cosby]

Duke favored by 14.5

I like this play. Duke also has a mass majority of the handle and tickets. That makes me like Pitt. And since I first checked a few hours ago, fanduel has a lot of money coming in on Pitt.

I don't see a team total play on FD or bet espn. At least not yet.

 

[Pitt666]

Duke has been a highly consistent team. No Torvik game scores below 90… In contrast, Pitt had a GS of 13 at Miss State, 64 at VT, and 70 versus Cal. Pitt is capable of playing a good game. The key is how to get Duke off their game…

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Duke has been a highly consistent team. No Torvik game scores below 90… In contrast, Pitt had a GS of 13 at Miss State, 64 at VT, and 70 versus Cal. Pitt is capable of playing a good game. The key is how to get Duke off their game…

The key here is to not get blown out though road blowouts dont affect you as much as getting blown out at home. And when you blow a team out on the road, it really helps you. Kansas beat a below average UCF team in Orlando and moved up from 21 to 10. Why? They won by 51.

 

[Pitt666]

The key here is to not get blown out though road blowouts dont affect you as much as getting blown out at home. And when you blow a team out on the road, it really helps you. Kansas beat a below average UCF team in Orlando and moved up from 21 to 10. Why? They won by 51.

Iowa only dropped 6 after a blow out loss at Wisconsin. And the top 25 teams with blowout losses this weekend didn’t drop as much either. Coach Cal had a good quote after Arkansas got blown out, that he wasn’t disappointed they lost on the road, it was that they got manhandled. I expect a better showing than at Miss State. Play competitive.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Iowa only dropped 6 after a blow out loss at Wisconsin. And the top 25 teams with blowout losses this weekend didn’t drop as much either. Coach Cal had a good quote after Arkansas got blown out, that he wasn’t disappointed they lost on the road, it was that they got manhandled. I expect a better showing than at Miss State. Play competitive.

Be physical right back at them. Let's ****ing go!!!

 

[PITT 76]

Duke is an opportunity to get noticed. I would consider playing cooper flagg like we played the Stanford big.

 

[SteelBowl70]

The key here is to not get blown out though road blowouts dont affect you as much as getting blown out at home. And when you blow a team out on the road, it really helps you. Kansas beat a below average UCF team in Orlando and moved up from 21 to 10. Why? They won by 51.

How many spots did Pitt fall last year when they lost 91-58 at Wake? Seemed like it was quite a big fall like 10 spots.

 

[Chairman Moe]

Be physical right back at them. Let's ****ing go!!!

If you recall, the game vs Miss State was officiated without many calls being made for physical contact. Much of the contact (though "physical") was judged incidental by the refs. That said, if tonight's game is similarly officiated, Pitt needs to respond in kind. No backing down. OTOH, if there are quick whistles (against both teams) for contact it might bode better for us ... either way, I am hoping for a close game; no blowout

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I would consider playing cooper flagg like we played the Stanford big.

The problem with that is that Flagg's teammates are much better than Reynaud's, and Flagg is a good enough passer to find them when they are open.

The better strategy might be to let Flagg get his and limit everyone else as much as possible.