What's up with the Coronavirus numbers???
- Thread starter YourPittDanceTeam
- Start date
Semantics.
It worked...the first step was to reduce the initial R0. The factors were as high as 5 in some estimates. We are probably in the area of 2-2.5 at the moment from what we can tell.
The next steps will determine how we manage the the future R0 and keep it below 1.
We need to strike a balance and create a plan to meet our goal.
I have no clue where the reporters are getting their information from, but what I do know is that the point of my original post was confirmed today by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. They reduced their reported numbers of deaths attributed to the Coronavirus by 201. They claim that the decrease is due to those people who's death could not be confirmed as being caused by the Coronavirus.
I'm willing to bet that there is even more then the 201 that they just announced.
We have to get things back to some form of normalcy with people back to work pretty soon. I saw somewhere that if the number of unemployed reaches 32 million and stayed there for long that it would statistically result in non-coronavirus related deaths increasing by by about 70,000 per year. This would exceed deaths triggered by the virus.
If that is accurate, it is clear that we cannot wait for a vaccine to be available and in widespread use before opening things up. Hopefully the experimental data on the effect of temperature, sunlight with its UV light and humidity will result in the coming spring and summer weather knocking the virus way back to help allow things to open up. Anecdotally, the lower rates of infection and deaths reported from climates already warm--like California (vs New York with its very cool spring) suggests this weather effect on the virus is real. We shall see what happens.
It is "different" for a variety of reasons.
Three things:
1) As you noted, it is more transmittable then the "common flu." So, more people are going to get infected than most other viruses or pandemic level viruses.
2) It is not the worst case scenario in terms of mortality, but it IS markedly more lethal the the "common flu" not just for older people, but everyone.
3) Finally, the length of which it takes to kick in. Whether is it someone who is asymptomatic or someone who clearly is displaying symptoms of some kind, people can shed it for close to a month.
So, there may be pandemics that were more deadly, more transmittable or whatever, but is a really bad mix of all of that.
Finally, once it really digs in it overwhelms the medical staff and facilities because it requires intensive treatment to try to save the cases where it is going terminal while with its high level of transmission aggressively attacks the attending medical staff. One of the biggest tragedies to this is all of the hospital staff who are dying from it.
they just added many of these probable but unconfirmed cases earlier this week.
And those numbers are using the confirmed cases. All the antibody testing has shown that there are way more people that have had it. Of you use the cruise ship and aircraft carrier numbers were everyone was tested the death rate is almost certainly below .5 percent. When you factor in these new numbers it shows that your chances of dieing from Corona virus are incredibly small if your under age 65. Like 1 in 5k small. Now in a country of 330 million your going to have deaths in all age groups but the risk to a individual is low. But the risk to the overall public is high because it looks like this virus is extremely contagious. Even with a .1 percent death rate is 200 million people catch it that's 200k dead.
Nyc antibody test was more of the same. Cruise ships are similar numbers death rate is flu ..1 percent to . 5 in areas where hospitals were overwhelmed. It's worse than the flu not because it kills more often ( although I do think it likely does by a factor of 2 or 3) but because it's far more contagious.
Not true influenza kills young people as well. Influenza is almost assuredly more deadly than covid 19 in those under age 15.
And those cases the ones that tested negative are in most locations being counted as covid 19 deaths. I think the total death numbers are likely pretty darn accurate. Some are being counted that were not and some aren't being counted.
Your charts are using confirmed cases for covid 19 vs presumed cases for the flu! Everyone knows that the actual cases of covid 19 far exceed the confirmed cases. Most scientist thought that number was likely between 5 and 10 times but all the antibody test, and there are getting to be quite a few, say that it's really closer to 25 to 50 times more prevalent. So your .5 for 45 to 54 year olds is really .1 using the worst case numbers to .01.It is "different" for a variety of reasons.
Three things:
1) As you noted, it is more transmittable then the "common flu." So, more people are going to get infected than most other viruses or pandemic level viruses.
2) It is not the worst case scenario in terms of mortality, but it IS markedly more lethal the the "common flu" not just for older people, but everyone.
3) Finally, the length of which it takes to kick in. Whether is it someone who is asymptomatic or someone who clearly is displaying symptoms of some kind, people can shed it for close to a month.
So, there may be pandemics that were more deadly, more transmittable or whatever, but is a really bad mix of all of that.
Finally, once it really digs in it overwhelms the medical staff and facilities because it requires intensive treatment to try to save the cases where it is going terminal while with its high level of transmission aggressively attacks the attending medical staff. One of the biggest tragedies to this is all of the hospital staff who are dying from it.
Read this:
Paul Kengor: This isn't the flu! On covid-19's virulence & politics
https://triblive.com/opinion/paul-kengor-this-isnt-the-flu-on-covid-19s-virulence-politics/
(Via TribLive)
Paul Kengor: This isn't the flu! On covid-19's virulence & politics
https://triblive.com/opinion/paul-kengor-this-isnt-the-flu-on-covid-19s-virulence-politics/
(Via TribLive)
I hate wading into political threads on sports message boards because they tend to go a certain...way. And full disclosure I am not an epidemiologist or in any way associated with the medical field so my opinions on this matter should be taken with the grain of salt given to any other furloughed statistician making loosey-goosey home models based on publicly available global health data.
All of that said though, I think that eventually it will come out that the US is woefully inaccurate on both the numbers of infections and especially inaccurate on the numbers of fatalities. Every model that I have mocked up (*basic methodology and takeaways below) shows that we are under-reporting Covid-19 deaths between from 60% to up to 200% depending on when the infection actually started here. And with new antibody data showing that it may have hit major metropolitan areas including Pittsburgh by as early as January we are potentially looking at nearly 100,000 deaths attributed to other causes that were actually Covid-19 related.
* Far and away the leading predictive indicators of death rate by R2 are the total rate of infections in a given country [once confirmed cases in a country go over 1000 cases per million then the projected death rate increases by nearly 500%] and the time between mass testing per capita and the infection rate per capita[the faster that you hit a baseline testing rate of at least 1 test per 100 people the lower that your death rate is across the board with that benefit seeming to cap at 1 test per 50 people]. Put at its most reductive our infection and testing profile is more akin to the Benelux nations but our death rate is more in line with Ireland or the Swiss who were much more proactive in their testing and response.
All of that said though, I think that eventually it will come out that the US is woefully inaccurate on both the numbers of infections and especially inaccurate on the numbers of fatalities. Every model that I have mocked up (*basic methodology and takeaways below) shows that we are under-reporting Covid-19 deaths between from 60% to up to 200% depending on when the infection actually started here. And with new antibody data showing that it may have hit major metropolitan areas including Pittsburgh by as early as January we are potentially looking at nearly 100,000 deaths attributed to other causes that were actually Covid-19 related.
* Far and away the leading predictive indicators of death rate by R2 are the total rate of infections in a given country [once confirmed cases in a country go over 1000 cases per million then the projected death rate increases by nearly 500%] and the time between mass testing per capita and the infection rate per capita[the faster that you hit a baseline testing rate of at least 1 test per 100 people the lower that your death rate is across the board with that benefit seeming to cap at 1 test per 50 people]. Put at its most reductive our infection and testing profile is more akin to the Benelux nations but our death rate is more in line with Ireland or the Swiss who were much more proactive in their testing and response.
Yes...we know it is not the flu. It is also not a zombie apocalypse. Healthcare workers are beating the odds through hard work and now it is time to create a plan to help them and the economy work together. Sad that some are making this political (mostly the media).
We are not going to get all of this right but we have to try and that starts by quarantining any over 65 for the next year.
If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying there are more deaths because it waas here longer BUT doesn't it also mean there were more recoveries. Isn't the denominator much higher then likely reported.
I do agree....mass testing is needed to determine true infection/recovery rates. On going testing will be needed as we move into fall of 2020 to prevent flare ups.
What's the cash significance when a hospital classifies a death as covid related vs not covid related?
Probably $0. I think this is fake news being spread by social media. Why would a hospital be funded based on deaths?
I have no clue. Is there some kind of govt reimbursement like insurance companies use? I've heard 13K and 30K as #'s thrown around per patient...
Hospitals don’t make money off of dead people
They make money off the living
Like every other business
The answer is actually yes and no. It is not necessarily deaths per se that get paid more - but the government is paying more for Covid cases than other illnesses that fit the same DRG code
Specifically, there is a 20% add on payment for Covid cases that was part of the CARES act.
So there is an incentive to attribute more deaths to Covid because of this. Do I think it happens in the majority of cases - no. But I am sure it is happening in a smaller number of cases
pittdan77
Athletic Director
Perception. If you needed a procedure or had to be admitted, would you want to be in a hospital that had a lot of people infected or dying? But that's the cost.
There's a perception by some employees inside of UPMC that the system is downplaying cases and deaths because they want to hold cost down and ramp up surgical procedures again. Take that for what it's worth.
pittdan77
Athletic Director
For Medicare, yes, with some regional variations (which is true for anything with CMS). I can see how that might affect the final pronouncement. I'll go so far as to suggest that's one reason county coroners are being bypassed. Overall, hospital revenue is down because they're not doing the nice "profitable" surgeries and that notion is a completely different discussion.
I really think we won't know the real data for many years and I say that only because that's typically how these things work.
Hey pill counter .
I see you spew your misguided b.s. on the football board as well as the locker room . Many younger people have perished from influenza every year as they do Coivid-19 .
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
yes
The fatality rate for children is higher - but I was referring to healthy young adults
The rates are significantly lower than covid
UPMC has 85,000 plus employees. That many people , you are bound to have some spreading crazy thoughts
I can tell you at the Oakland hospitals, the Covid case count has been low. There have been more in St Margarets and N Hills Passavant.
And there is no reason not to ramp surgical procedures up. They have had to tell staff to stay home. For example, at Magee, there has been one Covid case, one. But other than cancer cases and c-sections, the ORs have been shut down. And most of the surgical cases Magee does are same day surgeries - so it's not like most of these people would need a hospital room. No reason why they can't be treated.
And it is bad for the patients - who have had their surgeries postponed. It is not like these people just chose to have surgery. They need it and every day it is delayed can result in increased pain and worsening of their condition.
Hence why it makes sense UPMC is ramping up surgeries - actually started this week and increasing on a weekly basis til they are back at full tilt
That's not the case.
Those that are dying in every case have one or more comorbidities.
The deaths are reported and the underlying conditions are discovered.
Anything to support this? I’ve tried to stay informed but haven’t seen this published anywhere.
Pa Health person R.Levine mentioned it and so did Birx.
Both mentioned the death count must be sorted out and confirmed since Covid is sometimes the third or fourth case of death.
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Oh I don’t doubt it’s gonna take time and lots of it to sort through everything. And while I understand the underlying conditions and comorbidities I have a hard time believing EVERY death has one or more based on what I’ve read.
And even with those comorbidities those people were living. Then they got this virus and they’re dead. So there seems to be some kind of agenda to not “blame” the virus. Those people with underlying conditions could have had long lives ahead of them but they got the virus and it killed them.
The primary reason elective procedures were shut down was due to supply chain concerns for ppe.
As covid19 causes hypercoagulapathy -
It’s silly to dismiss as not covid related .
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32316063/
This will give you a lot of confidence in the numbers.
With a process like this there's no reconciliation of total dead.
It leaves the counting and reconciling to the partisan elected in power group.
The pro Covid, make this look real bad crowd, so the economy stays closed could add, double, triple count or make up numbers.
The Coroners office wants the Covid and non Covid dead to reconcile to Total Dead.
Sorta like balancing a checkbook!
This is happening in every state.
Bypassing the coroners investigation who has a legal obligation to get the cause of death right.
The politicians have a partisan, agenda driven obligation to get the cause of death right to support their political agenda.
http://www.gettysburgtimes.com/news/covid-19/article_5cb0a3c9-378f-5eb2-af88-dbef9b5819eb.html
With a process like this there's no reconciliation of total dead.
It leaves the counting and reconciling to the partisan elected in power group.
The pro Covid, make this look real bad crowd, so the economy stays closed could add, double, triple count or make up numbers.
The Coroners office wants the Covid and non Covid dead to reconcile to Total Dead.
Sorta like balancing a checkbook!
This is happening in every state.
Bypassing the coroners investigation who has a legal obligation to get the cause of death right.
The politicians have a partisan, agenda driven obligation to get the cause of death right to support their political agenda.
http://www.gettysburgtimes.com/news/covid-19/article_5cb0a3c9-378f-5eb2-af88-dbef9b5819eb.html
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What do you do get your gibberish to English translator out when you post.
gibberish
[ˈjib(ə)riSH]
NOUN
- unintelligible or meaningless speech or writing; nonsense.
"he talks gibberish"
And the CDC is using estimated cases for the flu and confirmed cases for covid 19. Even the CDC and who say that infections are almost guaranteed to be 5 to 10 times more than the confirmed numbers. It's true that it's a almost certainty that covid 19 is worse than the flu. But the numbers being used to compare the two are not a direct comparison. You would have to use a estimate for covid 19. If you use a multiple of 10, which is likely on the low end according to antibody data, then the numbers look a lot different.
Well the topic was cause of death
So that’s what I answered and referenced
If it helps, I’ve heard from various people who would know that many of the cases of people dying from Covid without pre-existing conditions are really people that were not in good health to begin with. These can include cases where they were officially listed as not having pre-existing conditions, but these people also never go to the doctor and, as a result, can’t officially be diagnosed with anything.
Yes.
This is the case with young people who they say die from Covid.
No healthy young people ( or people in general) die from Covid.
Many young people haven't been to a doctor for a complete physical ever.
They get sports physicals - ok you're good you're breathing.
I didn't get a complete physical until mid 40's when as a Corp exec my company forced me to go for one of those full day things.
A panel of doctors mentioned when a young person dies of Covid it's always because of an unknown comorbidity that was discovered after death and days after the death was classified as a Covid death.
Lots of people classified as Covid who died from other causes.
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