Wild times out west

[Sean Miller Fan]

Conference Realignment Update: Recapping Chaotic Day for Gonzaga, Pac-12, Mountain West & AAC

Read Brett McMurphy's conference realignment update with a recap on a chaotic day for Gonzaga, the Pac-12, Mountain West & AAC.

www.actionnetwork.com

Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, and USF turn down P12.

UNLV and AFA turn down P12.

Utah State accepts P12.

UNLV and AFA, who were to get special financial incentives to stay in MWC now reconsidering that.

Gonzaga seems to be going to the P12 for everything but football, which they dont have.

Even seeing UConn as a potential all-sports member. Not sure how much sense that makes for either party but you could certainly make arguments that it would. UConn football would get a spot in what could be the 5th best football league and if Gonzaga joins, the basketball league could be better than the Big East, especially since those MWC know how to game the NET and get all their teams into the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga, UConn, San Diego State and then NET gamers Utah St, Boise, and Colorado St make for a good hoops league.

Maybe the P12 could add Temple or UMass to give UConn a traveling partner or would that dilution make it not worth bringing in UConn?

 

[happjack]

UNLV is now "exploring options".

Sources: UNLV exploring options after USU defects

UNLV is expected to reengage in conversations with the Pac-12 after its commitment to the Mountain West earlier in the day was not formalized, sources told ESPN

www.espn.com

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

UConn in the Pac-? (I assume they'll correct the number in their conference name at some point, and have no hope of getting back to 12 conference members while maintaining even a shred of the "Conference of Champions" prestige) would have to be the peak of conference realignment absurdity.

I could see the Pac-? adding Nevada and UNLV plus one other (not Gonzaga) to get to 10 full members. No one else in the AAC or MWC makes much sense, so I'm not exactly sure who else they'd bring in. I'm sure San Jose State would sign up in an instant, but they're only marginally more appealing than the likes of Wyoming or UNM.

Ultimately, it's ridiculous that we have to go through all these machinations before the inevitable conclusion of super conferences for revenue sports (or maybe just football) and regional ones for everything else is reached.

 

[PITT 76]

I really don't see any bonus in joining the PAC at this time. They have become a part of the Group of 6. Unless they magically get a good TV contract, those schools are better served to stay in their GO6 conferences because the geography is probably better, and the opportunity to make the playoffs is the same.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

I really don't see any bonus in joining the PAC at this time. They have become a part of the Group of 6. Unless they magically get a good TV contract, those schools are better served to stay in their GO6 conferences because the geography is probably better, and the opportunity to make the playoffs is the same.

The bonus is the Pac-X brand and the better programs in the MWC shedding the dregs of the conference.

The PAC-X will be the clear 5th best conference, which means the champ will in the playoff nearly every year and the champs of the other G6 conferences will be left out.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The bonus is the Pac-X brand and the better programs in the MWC shedding the dregs of the conference.

The PAC-X will be the clear 5th best conference, which means the champ will in the playoff nearly every year and the champs of the other G6 conferences will be left out.

The Pac Whatever will not necessarily be ahead of the American Athletic. That will be a year to year thing which will fluctuate. The Pac brand is better but their programs arent any better than the AAC programs. The Pac is just the MWC with Oregon State and Washington State replacing Hawaii, NM, Wyoming, Nevada, Wyoming, and San Jose

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I really don't see any bonus in joining the PAC at this time. They have become a part of the Group of 6. Unless they magically get a good TV contract, those schools are better served to stay in their GO6 conferences because the geography is probably better, and the opportunity to make the playoffs is the same.

That's what Memphis, Tulane, USF, and UTSA said. But if you are an MWC school, it makes perfect sense. The brand is better and it will be more money eventually.

For UConn, it may make sense. Their football needs a league and if they bring a travel partner like Temple or UMass, its really no different that Cal & Stan flying to East Coast all the time.

 

[HailtoPitt]

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

The Pac Whatever will not necessarily be ahead of the American Athletic. That will be a year to year thing which will fluctuate. The Pac brand is better but their programs arent any better than the AAC programs. The Pac is just the MWC with Oregon State and Washington State replacing Hawaii, NM, Wyoming, Nevada, Wyoming, and San Jose

The top end of the PAC-X is better than the top end of the AAC, and the bottom of the AAC is much worse than the bottom of the PAC-X (currently). There's no Temple, Rice, Charlotte, FAU, or UAB in the PAC-X.

 

[Jakey_John]

D-generation-X is also a formidable faction.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The top end of the PAC-X is better than the top end of the AAC

Is it?

Maybe this season or last season but you cant tell me that over the next 10 years that Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, USF, ECU, Army, Navy will be any worse than Boise, Oregon State, Wash St, Colorado St, SDSU, etc.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

Is it?

Maybe this season or last season but you cant tell me that over the next 10 years that Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, USF, ECU, Army, Navy will be any worse than Boise, Oregon State, Wash St, Colorado St, SDSU, etc.

Yes, I would be willing to bet a significant amount of money that Boise, OSU, and WSU will outperform whatever teams happen to float to the top of the trash heap in a given year of AAC football, let alone whichever of those AAC programs you want to stick with for an entire decade (I would go with Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA if I had to choose the best programs).

But again, I think a lot of the value in the new PAC-X is that the floor is much higher than the AAC or MWC.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yes, I would be willing to bet a significant amount of money that Boise, OSU, and WSU will outperform whatever teams happen to float to the top of the trash heap in a given year of AAC football, let alone whichever of those AAC programs you want to stick with for an entire decade (I would go with Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA if I had to choose the best programs).

But again, I think a lot of the value in the new PAC-X is that the floor is much higher than the AAC or MWC.

Maybe but I dont think they would be a clear #5. They'd be much closer to the American than the Big 12. Then, there's the recruiting angle to consider. I'd expect the best West Coast recruits to go to USC, UCLA, Wash, Oregon, Cal, and Big Ten schools who will recruit out there now. Oregon St and Wash St could sell playing in a P5 before. They dont have that anymore. Are they any more appealing than Memphis, Tulane, or UTSA?

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

D-generation-X is also a formidable faction.

Break it down

 

[Upg bobcat]

PAC is suing MWC: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...es-battle-during-latest-round-of-realignment/

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

PAC is suing MWC: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...es-battle-during-latest-round-of-realignment/

This is the FSU method:

Sign a contract. Then sue because you dont like the contract you sign. Just fine a judge that likes you and you are good. As I always say, we are not a nation of laws. We are a nation of judges. A contract is a contract. You dont like it now. Oh well.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

UNLV and Air Force decide to stay in the Mountain West for a $25 million bonus. AAC wanted Air Force. Not a good decision for either school. AFA should have joined up with Army & Navy. UNLV should have taken the spot in the better league. Now, it looks like the Pac 12 will turn to Texas State. That would give the Pac 12, the state schools in Texas, Colorado, Utah, Oregon, and Washington plus state schools in California and Idaho which use the names of their cities.

Not sure who the MWC adds. They have:

UNLV
Nevada
San Jose State
Wyoming
Air Force
New Mexico
Hawaii (football only)

They need to add 2 to keep an auto NCAA Tournament bid assuming they dont add Hawaii for all sports. I doubt New Mexico would allow New Mexico State to join. I think they add UTEP from CUSA. UTEP is in the Mountain time zone and former WAC rivals with some of those schools. As for the 8th school, seems like it would have to come from FCS

- Sacramento State
- a Montana school?
- Idaho
- a Dakota school?

 

[Dan1911]

UNLV commits to the MWC instead of the PAC. Signed grant of rights thru 2032, I believe. I don’t get it. MWC is impossible to get on tv, has low payouts, and is not a power 5. I think this is a bad mistake.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

UNLV commits to the MWC instead of the PAC. Signed grant of rights thru 2032, I believe. I don’t get it. MWC is impossible to get on tv, has low payouts, and is not a power 5. I think this is a bad mistake.

I get that the Pac 12 is really just the old MWC plus Oregon State & Washington State but those are the top MWC programs. I'd rather be with Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Colorado State, and Utah State than Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State and whatever additions they add like UTEP maybe. Now, it appears the MWC wants Toledo and Northern Illinois as football-only schools which seems batshit crazy. And why would these schools agree to that. Surely, the MAC would kick their other sports out of their league so they'd have to join the Horizon League or Summit. Is that worth flying your football team to a watered-down Mountain West? I cant imagine they'd agree to this. The MWC is going to have to look to the Sun Belt, CUSA, or FCS.

Back to UNLV, the only reason I see them staying is for financial reasons. MWC schools are owed $90 million in exit fees from the departing teams. UNLV and AFA will receive $22 million each. The other 4 teams will split the other $46 million. Then there's $55 million in poaching fees owed to the MWC by Oregon State & Washington State as part of their scheduling agreement. If the MWC divide that evenly, that's about $9 million per school. So UNLV would make about $31 million from this. If they left, they'd owe $17 million in exit fees plus part of the poaching penalty that Oregon State & Washington State would make them contribute to. So, the decision to stay makes them roughly $50 million richer from that. How long would it take for them to make that back in increased TV money? I dont know but I still the over the long-term, the Pac 12 is the better option, financially.

UNLV may be playing the long game though, thinking around 2030, the Big 12 and ACC will merge and add some P12 schools anyway meaning they'd be back with all those MWC schools anyway so why not get paid for it now?

 

[Dan1911]

I get that the Pac 12 is really just the old MWC plus Oregon State & Washington State but those are the top MWC programs. I'd rather be with Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Colorado State, and Utah State than Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State and whatever additions they add like UTEP maybe. Now, it appears the MWC wants Toledo and Northern Illinois as football-only schools which seems batshit crazy. And why would these schools agree to that. Surely, the MAC would kick their other sports out of their league so they'd have to join the Horizon League or Summit. Is that worth flying your football team to a watered-down Mountain West? I cant imagine they'd agree to this. The MWC is going to have to look to the Sun Belt, CUSA, or FCS.

Back to UNLV, the only reason I see them staying is for financial reasons. MWC schools are owed $90 million in exit fees from the departing teams. UNLV and AFA will receive $22 million each. The other 4 teams will split the other $46 million. Then there's $55 million in poaching fees owed to the MWC by Oregon State & Washington State as part of their scheduling agreement. If the MWC divide that evenly, that's about $9 million per school. So UNLV would make about $31 million from this. If they left, they'd owe $17 million in exit fees plus part of the poaching penalty that Oregon State & Washington State would make them contribute to. So, the decision to stay makes them roughly $50 million richer from that. How long would it take for them to make that back in increased TV money? I dont know but I still the over the long-term, the Pac 12 is the better option, financially.

UNLV may be playing the long game though, thinking around 2030, the Big 12 and ACC will merge and add some P12 schools anyway meaning they'd be back with all those MWC schools anyway so why not get paid for it now?

Interesting points.

 

[pittdan77]

UNLV and Air Force decide to stay in the Mountain West for a $25 million bonus. AAC wanted Air Force. Not a good decision for either school. AFA should have joined up with Army & Navy.

I can't speak for UNLV but Air Force is quite content in the MWC. And to be honest, the PAC whatever won't have any stability. It will be just like the AAC where schools hang out until something better comes along. It's not like they have a big TV base either. AF just expanded their stadium and sell it out. They also have some other priorities that preclude big time football.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

I get that the Pac 12 is really just the old MWC plus Oregon State & Washington State but those are the top MWC programs. I'd rather be with Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Colorado State, and Utah State than Wyoming, Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State and whatever additions they add like UTEP maybe. Now, it appears the MWC wants Toledo and Northern Illinois as football-only schools which seems batshit crazy. And why would these schools agree to that. Surely, the MAC would kick their other sports out of their league so they'd have to join the Horizon League or Summit. Is that worth flying your football team to a watered-down Mountain West? I cant imagine they'd agree to this. The MWC is going to have to look to the Sun Belt, CUSA, or FCS.

Back to UNLV, the only reason I see them staying is for financial reasons. MWC schools are owed $90 million in exit fees from the departing teams. UNLV and AFA will receive $22 million each. The other 4 teams will split the other $46 million. Then there's $55 million in poaching fees owed to the MWC by Oregon State & Washington State as part of their scheduling agreement. If the MWC divide that evenly, that's about $9 million per school. So UNLV would make about $31 million from this. If they left, they'd owe $17 million in exit fees plus part of the poaching penalty that Oregon State & Washington State would make them contribute to. So, the decision to stay makes them roughly $50 million richer from that. How long would it take for them to make that back in increased TV money? I dont know but I still the over the long-term, the Pac 12 is the better option, financially.

UNLV may be playing the long game though, thinking around 2030, the Big 12 and ACC will merge and add some P12 schools anyway meaning they'd be back with all those MWC schools anyway so why not get paid for it now?

I believe the PAC-X is covering the exit fees for the teams leaving the MWC out of their massive pool of exit fee money, but you might be right about UNLV taking the cash now and knowing they'll probably end up in some conference with the PAC-X teams soon enough.

I don't know why Air Force didn't move to the PAC-X, I get they aren't looking to play at the P4 level but this is the same group of schools plus the PAC-12's historic bottom feeders in most sports. It's not a step up in competition. Air Force doesn't want to constantly send their students back east, since they actually have to attend school unlike most D-1 athletes, so pretty every other conference is out. Maybe they're applying the same logic as UNLV.

It's also funny that neither conference is well positioned now because they don't have enough members and will be fighting over dregs like UTEP and NMST just to be weighed down by them in any media rights deal or realignment discussion in the future.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I believe the PAC-X is covering the exit fees for the teams leaving the MWC out of their massive pool of exit fee money, but you might be right about UNLV taking the cash now and knowing they'll probably end up in some conference with the PAC-X teams soon enough.

I don't know why Air Force didn't move to the PAC-X, I get they aren't looking to play at the P4 level but this is the same group of schools plus the PAC-12's historic bottom feeders in most sports. It's not a step up in competition. Air Force doesn't want to constantly send their students back east, since they actually have to attend school unlike most D-1 athletes, so pretty every other conference is out. Maybe they're applying the same logic as UNLV.

It's also funny that neither conference is well positioned now because they don't have enough members and will be fighting over dregs like UTEP and NMST just to be weighed down by them in any media rights deal or realignment discussion in the future.

The Pac 12, MWC, and AAC all want Texas State now. They have a lot of potential I guess because they are 40 miles from Austin and 40 miles from San Antonio. 5 million people live in that area in and between those cities.

 

[Upg bobcat]

The Pac 12, MWC, and AAC all want Texas State now. They have a lot of potential I guess because they are 40 miles from Austin and 40 miles from San Antonio. 5 million people live in that area in and between those cities.

Texas State should also change their name to the Fighting Armadillos, and recruit a 30 year old QB and an attractive kicker.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

The Pac 12, MWC, and AAC all want Texas State now. They have a lot of potential I guess because they are 40 miles from Austin and 40 miles from San Antonio. 5 million people live in that area in and between those cities.

Right. In 5 - 10 years, a lot of people are going to be questioning why the conference that "wins" the competition to be affiliated with a football team with zero pedigree and approximately zero fans had absolutely no foresight.

Because you know what's 0 miles from Austin? UT-Austin, which is why Texas State will never have enough of a following to matter to any athletic partners.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Right. In 5 - 10 years, a lot of people are going to be questioning why the conference that "wins" the competition to be affiliated with a football team with zero pedigree and approximately zero fans had absolutely no foresight.

Because you know what's 0 miles from Austin? UT-Austin, which is why Texas State will never have enough of a following to matter to any athletic partners.

There's not many options left for the Pac 12

New Mexico State
UTEP
Texas State
Tulsa
Louisiana, Tech, or Monroe?
Middle Tennesse State
Western Kentucky
Sam Houston State

Then you get into the FCS schools

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

There's not many options left for the Pac 12

New Mexico State
UTEP
Texas State
Tulsa
Louisiana, Tech, or Monroe?
Middle Tennesse State
Western Kentucky
Sam Houston State

Then you get into the FCS schools

Yep. Some exceptionally dumb decisions were made to get to the point where the MWC and PAC-X *NEED* a total of 3 of these schools between them to remain FBS conferences.

 

[Dan1911]

I’ll continue to enjoy the PAC schools in the big lose. I hope they regret destroying a conference with a great history and unique culture.

To be clear, I realize that the PAC did it to themselves with the handling of their media deal. Horrible

 

[Upg bobcat]

Right. In 5 - 10 years, a lot of people are going to be questioning why the conference that "wins" the competition to be affiliated with a football team with zero pedigree and approximately zero fans had absolutely no foresight.

Because you know what's 0 miles from Austin? UT-Austin, which is why Texas State will never have enough of a following to matter to any athletic partners.

I think I'd have to agree with this. Youngstown is also situated between Pittsburgh and Cleveland and the 5 million people between those those metro areas. If YSU moved up to FBS, it's not stealing college football fans in Pittsburgh from Pitt, PSU, or WVU, nor is it stealing Cleveland college football fans away from Ohio State.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think I'd have to agree with this. Youngstown is also situated between Pittsburgh and Cleveland and the 5 million people between those those metro areas. If YSU moved up to FBS, it's not stealing college football fans in Pittsburgh from Pitt, PSU, or WVU, nor is it stealing Cleveland college football fans away from Ohio State.

Massive differences. Youngstown is 75 miles from Cleveland and 68 from Pittsburgh. Texas State is 31 miles south of Austin and 50 miles north of San Antonio. Youngstown is a depressed area. San Marcos and that Austin/San Antonio corridor is growing. Texas State is one of the largest schools in the nation with an undergraduate enrollment of 35K. YSU has 9300. Austin/San Antonio have only 1 pro team in the 4 major sports plus an MLS team and of course, The Longhorns. Cleveland/Pittsburgh has 6 pro teams and a major college team.

I am not saying Texas State can be the next Alabama. But I am saying there's no reason they cant be UCF. Tons of similarities to UCF.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think the best thing that the Pac 12 can do at this point is to add Gonzaga, UConn, and an eastern UConn partner. I doubt Temple would leave the American so it would have to be UMass. There's just nobody left that really adds anything to the Pac 12. With UConn and Gonzaga, you get 2 big basketball brands that have value. And with UConn and UMass football, you could do 4 game windows on Saturdays.

Would UConn go for this? I dont know. Gonzaga would be a sweetener for them. If I were them, I would. They need to grow football so they can get an ACC or B12 invite. I know they like Big East basketball but they can play those teams in the non-con. And a bball league with Gonzaga, San Diego State and those old MWC teams who game the shit out of NET isnt a bad bball league.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

P12 adds Gonzaga. MWC adds UTEP. Pac 12 still needs 1 more. MWC needs 1 more.

P12 needs to do the right thing and add UConn for all sports.

Great day for UTEP as they've been in the wilderness for a few decades. They reunite with their old WAC buddies, New Mexico, Air Force, Wyoming, and Hawaii. Maybe this is enough incentive for the Juarez Cartel to finally get involved in the NIL game.

Tarleton State seems to be close to getting a Mountain West invite. Good Lord, UNLV, you declined the Pac 12 for this?

 

[LeftCoastPanther]

Texas State has a cool stadium that absolutely should host a bowl game.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

P12 needs to do the right thing and add UConn for all sports.

That would be such a completely moronic thing for UConn to do.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

That would be such a completely moronic thing for UConn to do.

Why though? It would obviously be much better than independence in football. For basketball, the new Pac 12 wont be as good as the Big East but with Gonzaga, SDSU and first-rate NET gamers like Colorado State and Boise State, it might actually be a better league than the Big East according the the NET nerds.

For UConn, the question would be is it worth the significant upgrade in football with the added revenue (P12 revenue > BE bball revenue) to fly all your teams out west 3-4 times per year. Would it be worth giving up the BET at MSG and games vs Nova, SHU, PC, SJU, and Gtown? I would think it would be quite easy, though, to schedule 2-3 games per year vs those schools if they wanted to.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

Why though? It would obviously be much better than independence in football. For basketball, the new Pac 12 wont be as good as the Big East but with Gonzaga, SDSU and first-rate NET gamers like Colorado State and Boise State, it might actually be a better league than the Big East according the the NET nerds.

For UConn, the question would be is it worth the significant upgrade in football with the added revenue (P12 revenue > BE bball revenue) to fly all your teams out west 3-4 times per year. Would it be worth giving up the BET at MSG and games vs Nova, SHU, PC, SJU, and Gtown? I would think it would be quite easy, though, to schedule 2-3 games per year vs those schools if they wanted to.

Why exactly do you think the PAC-X will have significantly more revenue than the Big East? The Texas State or NMST fanbase?

How the Mountain West's conference distribution compares to other leagues

The Mountain West reported $78.2 million in revenue in fiscal year 2023 with former conference commissioner Craig Thompson receiving $2.44 million in compensati

nevadasportsnet.com

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Why exactly do you think the PAC-X will have significantly more revenue than the Big East? The Texas State or NMST fanbase?

How the Mountain West's conference distribution compares to other leagues

The Mountain West reported $78.2 million in revenue in fiscal year 2023 with former conference commissioner Craig Thompson receiving $2.44 million in compensati

nevadasportsnet.com

Its football vs basketball. Not even a discussion. Those midweek MACtion games draw more viewers than high level college basketball.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

Its football vs basketball. Not even a discussion. Those midweek MACtion games draw more viewers than high level college basketball.

I take it you didn't read the linked article.

The value of UTEP football media rights is nearly zero, and they aren't even an option for the PAC-X anymore. Their available options have about the same value.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I take it you didn't read the linked article.

The value of UTEP football media rights is nearly zero, and they aren't even an option for the PAC-X anymore. Their available options have about the same value.

Nearly 0 in terms of "added value." If you throw UTEP vs Wyoming on a Wednesday night, it will outdraw a Kansas vs Houston basketball game because college football, as a sport, is far more popular. UTEP is going to the Mountain West and that's about the best the MWC can do at this point.

If Point Park decided to play FBS football, they would probably outdraw Pitt basketball on a weeknight for these same reasons.

 

[pittdan77]

Nearly 0 in terms of "added value." If you throw UTEP vs Wyoming on a Wednesday night, it will outdraw a Kansas vs Houston basketball game because college football, as a sport, is far more popular. UTEP is going to the Mountain West and that's about the best the MWC can do at this point.

If Point Park decided to play FBS football, they would probably outdraw Pitt basketball on a weeknight for these same reasons.

That isn't an argument that makes what he said wrong. Nobody was clamoring for UTEP's media rights 12 months ago and nobody is on their way to El Paso with a checkbook just because they are joining a conference nobody cares about.