Would you agree if the ACC offered this as a settlement?

[Sean Miller Fan]

Unequal revenue sharing based on some type of program value metric rated by some third party entity.

Inotherwords, have some third party determine, how much of the ACC's contract is due to having each team in the conference and pay them accordingly. In exchange, FSU and Clemson agree not to leave until 2036.

Hypothetically, lets say:

FSU: 18%
Clemson: 14%
UNC: 10%
Miami: 7.5%
NC State: 7%
UVa: 5%
VT: 5%
Pitt: 5%
Duke: 5%
Lou: 5%
GT: 5%
Cal: 3%
Stan: 3%
SMU: 2.5%
Wake: 2.5%
BC: 2.5%

 

[jivecat]

Why would we give up something for nothing? What does it give us?

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

Let’s go ahead and accept the 2 for 1 offer from PSU while we’re at it.

 

[Upg bobcat]

I could totally see it backfiring. For example, I could see Clemson not getting as much as it thinks it is worth from the 3rd party, and thus still feeling like it needs to leave.

The only reason schools like FSU, Clemson, and UNC would pick this over the Big 10 or SEC is if this would bring them as much or more money than what the Big 10 or SEC can offer. And I don't think it would.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

No, because the NIL is expected to become intertwined with schools pretty soon. Athletic dept revenue is an obstacle we can overcome (though it does lead to disadvantages in facilities, coaching hires, and the fact that we couldn't tell our fans to direct more money to NIL as opposed to the Panther Club). However, I don't want to play with teams like have like 10x the NIL money we do. This would only widen that gap.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Why would we give up something for nothing? What does it give us?

It buys the ACC time. If it can stay intact until 2036, it could raid the Big 12 in 2030 when their TV contract is up as pre-emptive moves for the eventual loss of teams.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

No, because the NIL is expected to become intertwined with schools pretty soon. Athletic dept revenue is an obstacle we can overcome (though it does lead to disadvantages in facilities, coaching hires, and the fact that we couldn't tell our fans to direct more money to NIL as opposed to the Panther Club). However, I don't want to play with teams like have like 10x the NIL money we do. This would only widen that gap.

Well, some people are scared that we dont even get a B12 invite and are stuck in a league with UConn, USF, Wake, BC, Syr, etc. I dont think that but is that a risk worth taking if we could ensure the ACC stays together until 2036 and all we really give up is that a few teams make more money?

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Unequal revenue sharing based on some type of program value metric rated by some third party entity.

Inotherwords, have some third party determine, how much of the ACC's contract is due to having each team in the conference and pay them accordingly. In exchange, FSU and Clemson agree not to leave until 2036.

Hypothetically, lets say:

FSU: 18%
Clemson: 14%
UNC: 10%
Miami: 7.5%
NC State: 7%
UVa: 5%
VT: 5%
Pitt: 5%
Duke: 5%
Lou: 5%
GT: 5%
Cal: 3%
Stan: 3%
SMU: 2.5%
Wake: 2.5%
BC: 2.5%

I don't know, but there is a rumor that ESPN is floating something during their 'look in' also involving the Raycom finally coming to an end...

 

[HailToPitt725]

You're missing Syracuse, so only having 16 schools instead of 17 would affect the revenue slices you describe.

In any case, I'm in favor of uneven revenue distribution as long as it would benefit us. The current figures I've found suggest that we make ~$40M per year through the media deal with ESPN (that will gradually increase over time, but that's the ballpark figure).

Our powers-at-be would need to determine whether that ~5% cut would, at the very least, be the same as we receive now. If the answer is no and we'd be locked into that amount, it's a hard "no."

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I could totally see it backfiring. For example, I could see Clemson not getting as much as it thinks it is worth from the 3rd party, and thus still feeling like it needs to leave.

The only reason schools like FSU, Clemson, and UNC would pick this over the Big 10 or SEC is if this would bring them as much or more money than what the Big 10 or SEC can offer. And I don't think it would.

It probably wouldnt be B10 or SEC money but when you factor in exit fees or a potential loss in court, would it be worth it for FSU to get somewhere close to B10/SEC money and focus on finishing Top 2 in the ACC until 2036?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I don't know, but there is a rumor that ESPN is floating something during their 'look in' also involving the Raycom finally coming to an end...

The Raycom deal is the current CW deal, which ends after the 2026-27 year so yea, they'll get those games back.

 

[HailToPitt725]

I don't know, but there is a rumor that ESPN is floating something during their 'look in' also involving the Raycom finally coming to an end...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 2027 when the Tier 3 media contact with Raycom (now The CW) comes to an end? If so, the ACC needs to get some sort of streaming package in place that would result in more money coming in.

If it means having exclusive games on ESPN+, Disney+, or something else (e.g., put it on the open market for Apple TV+ or Amazon Prime), then so be it. That's where we're headed anyways and it'd at least increase our annual revenue before the current deal with ESPN expires in 2036.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 2027 when the Tier 3 media contact with Raycom (now The CW) comes to an end? If so, the ACC needs to get some sort of streaming package in place that would result in more money coming in.

If it means having exclusive games on ESPN+, Disney+, or something else (e.g., put it on the open market for Apple TV+ or Amazon Prime), then so be it. That's where we're headed anyways and it'd at least increase our annual revenue before the current deal with ESPN expires in 2036.

ESPN gets those games back for free. They originally sold them to Raycom. So its not like the ACC is providing ESPN an extra revenue source. These games were already figured into the amount ESPN paid.

 

[HailToPitt725]

ESPN gets those games back for free.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

New rumor. 8-10 ACC schools breakaway and form new league.

 

[RaleighPittFan]

View embedded media

New rumor. 8-10 ACC schools breakaway and form new league.

He’s pretty credible, so that if probably more than rumor.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

He’s pretty credible, so that if probably more than rumor.

I dont know why they just wouldn't break away and join the B10 or SEC unless maybe they need all those votes but not everyone would have a P2 invite. So maybe they need to form this new 10 team league as a compromise. I wonder who the other 3 teams would be:

FSU
Clem
UNC
NC St
Miami
UVa
VT

SMU? Could buy way in

Duke? Bball is valuable but a 3rd football team in RDU doesnt make sense

Pitt? New volleyball arena is a major selling point

Lou? Solid all-around

GT? Terrible programs but Atlanta

I probably go GT, Lou, SMU (only due to money)

 

[Panthergrowl13]

View embedded media

New rumor. 8-10 ACC schools breakaway and form new league.

LOL at this rumor.

The problem was the Big East Conf. (8 football schools/fell apart) the Pac 12 (12 Football schools/fell apart) and Big 12 (10 Football schools/almost fell apart) were too small.

The ACC Conference now consists of 18 schools.

Going back to a small conference of 8/10 schools comes with great risk.

If 2/4 teams of that new 8/10 team conference gets poached by the B1G or SEC, then that Conference is done (Can the other teams really trust FSU, Clemson and UNC to be part of this new mini Conference).

Power in numbers.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[pittdan77]

He’s pretty credible, so that if probably more than rumor.

Nothing is credible until SwimSwam magazine weighs in.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

I really don't care any more.

 

[Pitt79]

F'em, I'm not desperate enough to pay tribute to anyone

 

[Skip74]

AFTER THEY WIN A COURT ORDER DISSOLVING THE GOR AND PERMITTING THEM TO LEAVE THE ACC (which is NOT gonna happen), WE CAN GIVE THEM WHATEVER THEY WANT. Been litigating and trying cases for decades. Never once got the money my client deserved without telling my adversaries to go shit in their hats (politely though).

 

[RaleighPittFan]

I dont know why they just wouldn't break away and join the B10 or SEC unless maybe they need all those votes but not everyone would have a P2 invite. So maybe they need to form this new 10 team league as a compromise. I wonder who the other 3 teams would be:

FSU
Clem
UNC
NC St
Miami
UVa
VT

SMU? Could buy way in

Duke? Bball is valuable but a 3rd football team in RDU doesnt make sense

Pitt? New volleyball arena is a major selling point

Lou? Solid all-around

GT? Terrible programs but Atlanta

I probably go GT, Lou, SMU (only due to money)

I assume the "new" 10 team league is predicated on making the same TV contract money that the current ACC has, split 14 ways.

Plus, I haven't seen the offers from the Big 10 or SEC for all to join.

 

[h2p_5150]

Pitt is pretty stupid at making athletics decisions, but I don't think they are dumb enough to go along with the plan to form a mini conference with Clemson UNC and FSU, whose only issue with the ACC GOR is that it makes it too difficult to join the SEC or BIG.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Pitt is pretty stupid at making athletics decisions, but I don't think they are dumb enough to go along with the plan to form a mini conference with Clemson UNC and FSU, whose only issue with the ACC GOR is that it makes it too difficult to join the SEC or BIG.

Agreed. I also don't think it'll happen, period. I think the likely outcome is that we lose Clemson, FSU, UNC, and Virginia to the B1G and SEC and then backfill. Perhaps that's with Oregon State and Washington State, maybe it's UConn or even South Florida.

 

[Upg bobcat]

LOL at this rumor.

The problem was the Big East Conf. (8 football schools/fell apart) the Pac 12 (12 Football schools/fell apart) and Big 12 (10 Football schools/almost fell apart) were too small.

The ACC Conference now consists of 18 schools.

Going back to a small conference of 8/10 schools comes with great risk.

If 2/4 teams of that new 8/10 team conference gets poached by the B1G or SEC, then that Conference is done (Can the other teams really trust FSU, Clemson and UNC to be part of this new mini Conference).

Power in numbers.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

I think times have changed. TV markets aren't the driving force that they once were so you don't need to expand for geography sake. If number of schools mattered, then FSU, Clemson, and UNC should be thrilled that the ACC is adding three more schools from far off regions. But guess what, they're not. What matters more is how much of a TV contract is worth per school. The biggest revenue schools of the ACC breaking away and forming a new conference is attractive in that it basically keeps their same competitive landscape but is "new" so it can negotiate a new contract for more money per school. ACC can't re-negotiate until what, 2036? This new conference allows them to re-negotiate now.

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

I think times have changed. TV markets aren't the driving force that they once were so you don't need to expand for geography sake. If number of schools mattered, then FSU, Clemson, and UNC should be thrilled that the ACC is adding three more schools from far off regions. But guess what, they're not. What matters more is how much of a TV contract is worth per school. The biggest revenue schools of the ACC breaking away and forming a new conference is attractive in that it basically keeps their same competitive landscape but is "new" so it can negotiate a new contract for more money per school. ACC can't re-negotiate until what, 2036? This new conference allows them to re-negotiate now.

I have been saying this for over a year now. Fanbase size, especially "engaged" fanbase is now more of an attraction. Rutgers being in NYC or NW in Chicago, I would think is less attractive and impactful than say Louisville or even WVU.

 

[pittdan77]

I think times have changed. TV markets aren't the driving force that they once were so you don't need to expand for geography sake. If number of schools mattered, then FSU, Clemson, and UNC should be thrilled that the ACC is adding three more schools from far off regions. But guess what, they're not. What matters more is how much of a TV contract is worth per school. The biggest revenue schools of the ACC breaking away and forming a new conference is attractive in that it basically keeps their same competitive landscape but is "new" so it can negotiate a new contract for more money per school. ACC can't re-negotiate until what, 2036? This new conference allows them to re-negotiate now.

Most of the schools on that list would fall under the heading of useful idiots if they think disbanding the conference is in their favor.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think times have changed. TV markets aren't the driving force that they once were so you don't need to expand for geography sake. If number of schools mattered, then FSU, Clemson, and UNC should be thrilled that the ACC is adding three more schools from far off regions. But guess what, they're not. What matters more is how much of a TV contract is worth per school. The biggest revenue schools of the ACC breaking away and forming a new conference is attractive in that it basically keeps their same competitive landscape but is "new" so it can negotiate a new contract for more money per school. ACC can't re-negotiate until what, 2036? This new conference allows them to re-negotiate now.

Honestly, 8-10 ACC schools leaving to form their own conference in the middle of a TV deal with ESPN would get the shit sued out of them by ESPN. I may have only taken 1 business law class in grad school but I know enough to understand that you can't do something like this to get out of a bad business deal and expect to not pay significant damages. ESPN "won" that business deal. Instead of "accepting defeat" and honoring the deal, you'd have 8-10 schools say they dont like it so they are forming an entity almost exactly the same just to get out of it.

 

[Houclone4]

Unequal revenue sharing based on some type of program value metric rated by some third party entity.

Inotherwords, have some third party determine, how much of the ACC's contract is due to having each team in the conference and pay them accordingly. In exchange, FSU and Clemson agree not to leave until 2036.

Hypothetically, lets say:

FSU: 18%
Clemson: 14%
UNC: 10%
Miami: 7.5%
NC State: 7%
UVa: 5%
VT: 5%
Pitt: 5%
Duke: 5%
Lou: 5%
GT: 5%
Cal: 3%
Stan: 3%
SMU: 2.5%
Wake: 2.5%
BC: 2.5%

It was reported each ACC school received an average of $39.5 million. for 2021-22. I know the CFP payouts will change things but for sake of comparison, assume $41M for each school for 2022-23. Assume $5 million each more from news outlets based on 30% share for Cal and Stanford and 0% for SMU. Total = $46 million each x 15 = $690 million total pie. I modified your pie for adding Syracuse by reducing FSU, Clemson, NC State, and GT. Per team basis below and rounding:

Current: $46 million

Proposed unequal for next 7 years
FSU: 17.5% - $121 million
Clemson: 13.5% - $93 million
UNC: 10% - $69 million
Miami: 7.5% - $52 million
NC State: 6.5% - $45 million
UVa: 5% - $35 million
VT: 5% - $35 million
Pitt: 5% - $35 million
Duke: 5% - $35 million
Lou: 5% - $35 million
GT: 4% - $28 million
Cal: 3% - $21 million
Stan: 3% - $21 million
SMU: 2.5% - $17 million
Wake: 2.5% - $17 million
BC: 2.5% - $17 million
Syr: 2.5% - $17 million

It might work considering it gives FSU and Clemson better chance to win the whole thing. The tax man will be calling though when Cal, Standford, and SMU will be equal shares. That changes the math above to $5 million less each school.

You mentioned raiding the Big 12 in 2030. How much % for ACC targets Cincy, WVU, and UCF? They going to be willing to come in for $20 million when they are going to be making $40 million each anyways, say $35 million when your speculation haircut comes? “Hey WVU, come and be with us and take a lot less money and be viewed as a 3rd class citizen. Also, don’t worry about the specter of our top teams bolting continuously like Texas and Oklahoma put you through every year.”

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

It was reported each ACC school received an average of $39.5 million. for 2021-22. I know the CFP payouts will change things but for sake of comparison, assume $41M for each school for 2022-23. Assume $5 million each more from news outlets based on 30% share for Cal and Stanford and 0% for SMU. Total = $46 million each x 15 = $690 million total pie. I modified your pie for adding Syracuse by reducing FSU, Clemson, NC State, and GT. Per team basis below and rounding:

Current: $46 million

Proposed unequal for next 7 years
FSU: 17.5% - $121 million
Clemson: 13.5% - $93 million
UNC: 10% - $69 million
Miami: 7.5% - $52 million
NC State: 6.5% - $45 million
UVa: 5% - $35 million
VT: 5% - $35 million
Pitt: 5% - $35 million
Duke: 5% - $35 million
Lou: 5% - $35 million
GT: 4% - $28 million
Cal: 3% - $21 million
Stan: 3% - $21 million
SMU: 2.5% - $17 million
Wake: 2.5% - $17 million
BC: 2.5% - $17 million
Syr: 2.5% - $17 million

It might work considering it gives FSU and Clemson better chance to win the whole thing. The tax man will be calling though when Cal, Standford, and SMU will be equal shares. That changes the math above to $5 million less each school.

You mentioned raiding the Big 12 in 2030. How much % for ACC targets Cincy, WVU, and UCF? They going to be willing to come in for $20 million when they are going to be making $40 million each anyways, say $35 million when your speculation haircut comes? “Hey WVU, come and be with us and take a lot less money and be viewed as a 3rd class citizen. Also, don’t worry about the specter of our top teams bolting continuously like Texas and Oklahoma put you through every year.”

Thanks for running those numbers. I'd be fine to pay FSU and others to stay until 2036.

Good question on raiding the Big 12. I'm not sure how that math would work out. The hope from the ACC's standpoint is that the new B12 deal sucks....and it may. But the ACC would have to offer a UCF or WVU more than they would have made by staying so I dont know what it would be. The idea would be that FSU, Clem, UNC, and others are leaving in 2036 so any Big 12 team that the ACC adds would understand that they are essentially pre-emptively backfilling and the new deal in 2036 would be distributed evenly.

 

[HailToPitt725]

It was reported each ACC school received an average of $39.5 million. for 2021-22. I know the CFP payouts will change things but for sake of comparison, assume $41M for each school for 2022-23. Assume $5 million each more from news outlets based on 30% share for Cal and Stanford and 0% for SMU. Total = $46 million each x 15 = $690 million total pie. I modified your pie for adding Syracuse by reducing FSU, Clemson, NC State, and GT. Per team basis below and rounding:

Current: $46 million

Proposed unequal for next 7 years
FSU: 17.5% - $121 million
Clemson: 13.5% - $93 million
UNC: 10% - $69 million
Miami: 7.5% - $52 million
NC State: 6.5% - $45 million
UVa: 5% - $35 million
VT: 5% - $35 million
Pitt: 5% - $35 million
Duke: 5% - $35 million
Lou: 5% - $35 million
GT: 4% - $28 million
Cal: 3% - $21 million
Stan: 3% - $21 million
SMU: 2.5% - $17 million
Wake: 2.5% - $17 million
BC: 2.5% - $17 million
Syr: 2.5% - $17 million

It might work considering it gives FSU and Clemson better chance to win the whole thing. The tax man will be calling though when Cal, Standford, and SMU will be equal shares. That changes the math above to $5 million less each school.

You mentioned raiding the Big 12 in 2030. How much % for ACC targets Cincy, WVU, and UCF? They going to be willing to come in for $20 million when they are going to be making $40 million each anyways, say $35 million when your speculation haircut comes? “Hey WVU, come and be with us and take a lot less money and be viewed as a 3rd class citizen. Also, don’t worry about the specter of our top teams bolting continuously like Texas and Oklahoma put you through every year.”

I’m not sure how a Houston poster found this board, but you have some very informed and interesting posts. Thanks for contributing.

 

[Las Panteras]

In the original scenario put forth, this model buys the league some time for the true football schools to pull their heads out of their asses and start winning again. VA Tech and Miami had very good and elite level programs in the past.

Elevate their programs once again and now the league is in better bargaining shape.

The OP's scenario buys time.

 

[HailToPitt725]

In the original scenario put forth, this model buys the league some time for the true football schools to pull their heads out of their asses and start winning again. VA Tech and Miami had very good and elite level programs in the past.

Elevate their programs once again and now the league is in better bargaining shape.

The OP's scenario buys time.

When you think about it, the ACC’s biggest problem over the years really has been underperforming programs. Miami has been a total flop, Virginia Tech has been a flop for 10+ years now, and FSU had a dip at the worst possible time. If the ACC consistently had 3-4 teams in the Top 15 each year, the narrative around the conference would be much different.

 

[Houclone4]

The unequal gulf revenue sharing SeanMiller laid out has merit. It gives FSU and Clemson the revenue to compete with the Big 10 and SEC brands.

Say FSU or Clemson win a couple titles and they and the ACC get all the media love for this unequal solution. Curious if Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia say to themselves why they can't have that and then use their influence to strong-arm their conferences for unequal revenue sharing too.

ACC contract would get better in 2036 in this scenario, but Big 10 will have renegotiated about twice more and SEC once more. With unequal, the gap will again start all over between the Big 10/SEC brands and FSU/Clemson.

 

[cashisking884]

I’ve said for the last couple of years that the ACC should give FSU and Clemson almost whatever they are demanding.

A lot of people brought up Texas and the Big 12. But the strategy worked to some extent for the Big 12.

What the ACC needed was time. Because you never know what will happen tomorrow. But you have to be alive tomorrow for it to happen.

Telling the programs that carried the conference’s tv ratings and were in demand to go elsewhere, “too bad,” was only going to force their hand and guarantee they would go nuclear as soon as possible. And that’s exactly what happened.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

In the original scenario put forth, this model buys the league some time for the true football schools to pull their heads out of their asses and start winning again. VA Tech and Miami had very good and elite level programs in the past.

Elevate their programs once again and now the league is in better bargaining shape.

The OP's scenario buys time.

Which was almost exactly my point. It gives the league time to adjust to this new CFP model and allows it to get to the next TV bargaining window intact. I mean, sure, the ACC is probably going to lose schools but you never know what the landscape would be like in 2036. At least this model allows the league to go to the open market and start negotiating in 2034 or 2035 to see what its worth. At that point, it would be 30+ years since they have gone to the open market. They've never gotten a market rate since they've always just re-upped with ESPN/Raycom.

The understanding would be that several schools have much better options so pay them P2 money to stay and then worry about your own program. Until the NCAA allows colleges to pay players unlimited amounts (and even the House case proposal limits it to 30K/year), the amount of money that FSU or Clemson make in my new model doesn't really help them win because it doesnt buy players. It buys them new lockers, new carpet, remodeled stadiums, and more support staff. It doesnt buy them an extra win.

 

[Panthergrowl13]

The ACC Conference is an important commodity for ABC/ESPN.

ESPN joined the lawsuit with the ACC Conference against FSU and Clemson.

All parties are aware of the stakes.

The entire matter can be resolved starting Feb. 2025 (ESPN/ACC - Look In) when the ACC and ESPN can both discuss contract modifications. The additions of Standford, CAL and SMU and the CFP and FSU/Clemson Lawsuits will ALL be part of the process.

I'm sure preliminary discussions are already underway to address all of these issues.

FSU and Clemson lawsuits will not be resolved before the "look in" date.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[pittdan77]

When you think about it, the ACC’s biggest problem over the years really has been underperforming programs. Miami has been a total flop, Virginia Tech has been a flop for 10+ years now, and FSU had a dip at the worst possible time. If the ACC consistently had 3-4 teams in the Top 15 each year, the narrative around the conference would be much different.

Surely you aren't suggesting that the biggest crybabies are the most responsible.

 

[NCPitt]

Unequal revenue sharing based on some type of program value metric rated by some third party entity.

Inotherwords, have some third party determine, how much of the ACC's contract is due to having each team in the conference and pay them accordingly. In exchange, FSU and Clemson agree not to leave until 2036.

Hypothetically, lets say:

FSU: 18%
Clemson: 14%
UNC: 10%
Miami: 7.5%
NC State: 7%
UVa: 5%
VT: 5%
Pitt: 5%
Duke: 5%
Lou: 5%
GT: 5%
Cal: 3%
Stan: 3%
SMU: 2.5%
Wake: 2.5%
BC: 2.5%

If I were Pitt, I would never agree to a payout structure that allowed a team to get 3+ times my payout. I might think about some differential but nothing even close to that.