Man, it's wild to remember that less than two months ago this team was 8-2 (4-1), fresh off of an emotional win over Duke, and on the cusp of the top 25 given what has happened since that Tuesday night. In the end I still think that the culture around certain players had gotten so toxic that this was definitely addition by subtraction but it's still worrying that this is now the third time in Capel's head coaching career that he has completely lost a basketball team during the course of a season based around what has happened off of the court. Moreover, it raises some serious questions about the composition of this staff (I'm still not even sure what Milan Brown actually does here) that Capel is going to take a long, hard look at going forward if he wants to win basketball games. On the court we've done a pretty good job of establishing an identity as a physical team that hits the boards, gets to the line, and challenges shooters but we haven't gotten quite good enough at those things to overcome our limitations shooting the basketball and putting the opposition on the free throw line so the obvious end result is the mixed bag that you saw in the second half of the season. Overall I think that we have some decent pieces going forward (certainly more than we had a few years ago) but what Capel and staff can add to the rebuild this offseason is probably going to be what makes or breaks this rebuild.
Femi Odukale - If you had told me two months ago that our best returning player next year would be Odukale I would have legitimately questioned your sanity but somehow here we are. Odukale turned a corner as a player once February rolled around and really kicked things into gear once he took over as a starter averaging 12.4/3.8/2.6 on a 57.7% eFG% which are really impressive numbers for a true freshman in ACC play. His ability to finish at the rim and draw fouls (4.7 FD/40 good for 7th in the ACC) was a particular strength and should only improve as he gets stronger physically. He also had positive moments as a defender (103.7 Drtg and 2.5 Stl%) and shot creator (21.2 Ast%) although there is still room to improve in those areas and I still think that he would benefit playing less as a true point guard and more alongside a secondary facilitator going forward.
Nike Sibande - Sibande got off to a horrible start in his Pitt career and looked to be a complete nonentity until Toney left the team when he suddenly started scoring 14.8 ppg on 50% from three point range. It's really tough to say whether that is sustainable going forward (his career shooting splits certainly suggest that it isn't) but there's no denying that a 22 year old guard who can create has value for the team next year. The real issue with Sibande is that he remains an absolute turnstile on defense, posting a 107.6 Drtg on the season and ratings of 138 against Clemson and 118 against Miami, so unless he is able to markedly improve that next season he's going to have to keep shooting exceptionally well to havevalue.
Ithiel Horton - Speaking of turnstiles, Ithiel Horton everyone! Horton has a beautiful jump shot but doesn't hunt for his shot enough and seems to always take some time to get going which is not what you're looking for in a low volume spot up shooter. With the extra COVID year we will have Horton for three more years if he wants to be here and he undeniably has some value (certainly more than a lot of posters give him credit for) but his ceiling doesn't seem to be that high right now.
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly - Coulibaly's biggest problem is pretty obvious in that he should be a redshirt freshman coming off of the bench for 15 minutes per game but instead he's a starting ACC center as a true sophomore. In spite of that he's been surprisingly useful, his Ortg of 112.1 is second on the team and he has done a decent enough job on the glass and blocking shots (4.5 Blk%), but whenever he has faced a true center he gets absolutely dominated averaging 4 ppg and 3.7 rpg. The extra COVID year is another huge benefit here as three more years of Coulibaly is going to be exceptionally valuable but he really needs to improve his strength in order to overcome his lack of size and quick twitch leaping ability.
William Jeffress - There have been plenty of moments this year where I have been convinced that Jeffress is going to be a star, he's an elite athlete with an exceptional understanding of the game and spacing, but right now his inability to shoot the ball (25.4% eFG%) and his tendency to drift and defer (only 12.3% of total possessions used) means that he's not close to there yet. Will be a good defender someday but right now he just isn't (107.2 Drtg). Still, in what was essentially a playing redshirt year Jeffress definitely impressed for a 17 year old and will be a core piece going forward.
Noah Collier - Jumping jack athlete also on a playing redshirt, looks like he's sort of a tweener between an undersized 5 and a big 4 and not really sure how valuable that he's going to be longterm. Will have to improve his jumper, his strength, or realistically probably both but not really enough data points to judge him on.
MAYBE BACK, MAYBE NOT
Justin Champagnie - Was on track to be ACC Player of the Year before the wear and tear of this season caught up with him down the stretch and, in spite of the fact that Johnson and Toney were definitely freezing him out, wasn't set up for good shots as well after the transfers. It still was an exceptional season for Champagnie though and there's a lot to be proud of. He's an elite scorer with an Ortg of 118.0 in ACC play 26.4% usage and while he's not exceptional at creating his own shot his ability to grab offensive rebounds (10.8% on the season), get to the line (4.4 FD/40), and not turn the ball over (only 10.3% TO%) more than overcomes that limitation. After a hot January from deep (57.1%) he became way too enamored with the three point shot (probably in an effort to impress NBA scouts) and shot 17.2% over the past two months on 3.2 attempts per game and he also definitely started hunting for blocks instead of playing positional defense after blocking five shots against Duke but even so he still shot 36.4% from three in ACC play and posted a Drtg of 98.1 on the year to lead the team so neither of those flaws hurt the team too badly. We desperately need him to come back next year and right now I would probably put those odds around 2/1 with limited inside info so let's hope for the best.
Gerald Drumgoole - There were signs late in the season that he may have fixed his broken jump shot as he went 2/5 from three and 4/4 from the line after the North Carolina game so if he can find that he could have value as a three year rotation player here. Or he might not and he might transfer. It's really impossible to say.
John Hugley - I'm still working on the assumption that he is almost certainly never going to put on a Pitt uniform again but I don't believe that anything official has been announced yet. He started his college career terribly, even outside of stealing a car, as he was one of the biggest reasons that we lost to St. Francis and he was completely overmatched against Northwestern but seemed as though he was starting to turn it around in ACC play (105.5 Ortg for 3rd on the team and 104.2 Drtg for 2nd in a small sample size). Is a huge loss for the team going forward as he was a guaranteed starter for the next four years.
THE DEPARTURE
Terrell Brown - So long, Terrell. You were an incredibly frustrating player sometimes but in spite of your physical limitations you're still leaving Pitt 4th all time in blocked shots and the single game record holder. The funniest thing about Brown is really that he never changed as a player, he remained an elite shot blocker, a decent rebounder, and a bad finisher with enough touch to shoot over 60% from the line every single season that he was here. His stats were really like clockwork (and he also played like a clockwork basketball player) and part of me is going to miss having him around.
THE PLAYERS
DEFINITELY RETURNING
Femi Odukale - If you had told me two months ago that our best returning player next year would be Odukale I would have legitimately questioned your sanity but somehow here we are. Odukale turned a corner as a player once February rolled around and really kicked things into gear once he took over as a starter averaging 12.4/3.8/2.6 on a 57.7% eFG% which are really impressive numbers for a true freshman in ACC play. His ability to finish at the rim and draw fouls (4.7 FD/40 good for 7th in the ACC) was a particular strength and should only improve as he gets stronger physically. He also had positive moments as a defender (103.7 Drtg and 2.5 Stl%) and shot creator (21.2 Ast%) although there is still room to improve in those areas and I still think that he would benefit playing less as a true point guard and more alongside a secondary facilitator going forward.
Nike Sibande - Sibande got off to a horrible start in his Pitt career and looked to be a complete nonentity until Toney left the team when he suddenly started scoring 14.8 ppg on 50% from three point range. It's really tough to say whether that is sustainable going forward (his career shooting splits certainly suggest that it isn't) but there's no denying that a 22 year old guard who can create has value for the team next year. The real issue with Sibande is that he remains an absolute turnstile on defense, posting a 107.6 Drtg on the season and ratings of 138 against Clemson and 118 against Miami, so unless he is able to markedly improve that next season he's going to have to keep shooting exceptionally well to havevalue.
Ithiel Horton - Speaking of turnstiles, Ithiel Horton everyone! Horton has a beautiful jump shot but doesn't hunt for his shot enough and seems to always take some time to get going which is not what you're looking for in a low volume spot up shooter. With the extra COVID year we will have Horton for three more years if he wants to be here and he undeniably has some value (certainly more than a lot of posters give him credit for) but his ceiling doesn't seem to be that high right now.
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly - Coulibaly's biggest problem is pretty obvious in that he should be a redshirt freshman coming off of the bench for 15 minutes per game but instead he's a starting ACC center as a true sophomore. In spite of that he's been surprisingly useful, his Ortg of 112.1 is second on the team and he has done a decent enough job on the glass and blocking shots (4.5 Blk%), but whenever he has faced a true center he gets absolutely dominated averaging 4 ppg and 3.7 rpg. The extra COVID year is another huge benefit here as three more years of Coulibaly is going to be exceptionally valuable but he really needs to improve his strength in order to overcome his lack of size and quick twitch leaping ability.
William Jeffress - There have been plenty of moments this year where I have been convinced that Jeffress is going to be a star, he's an elite athlete with an exceptional understanding of the game and spacing, but right now his inability to shoot the ball (25.4% eFG%) and his tendency to drift and defer (only 12.3% of total possessions used) means that he's not close to there yet. Will be a good defender someday but right now he just isn't (107.2 Drtg). Still, in what was essentially a playing redshirt year Jeffress definitely impressed for a 17 year old and will be a core piece going forward.
Noah Collier - Jumping jack athlete also on a playing redshirt, looks like he's sort of a tweener between an undersized 5 and a big 4 and not really sure how valuable that he's going to be longterm. Will have to improve his jumper, his strength, or realistically probably both but not really enough data points to judge him on.
MAYBE BACK, MAYBE NOT
Justin Champagnie - Was on track to be ACC Player of the Year before the wear and tear of this season caught up with him down the stretch and, in spite of the fact that Johnson and Toney were definitely freezing him out, wasn't set up for good shots as well after the transfers. It still was an exceptional season for Champagnie though and there's a lot to be proud of. He's an elite scorer with an Ortg of 118.0 in ACC play 26.4% usage and while he's not exceptional at creating his own shot his ability to grab offensive rebounds (10.8% on the season), get to the line (4.4 FD/40), and not turn the ball over (only 10.3% TO%) more than overcomes that limitation. After a hot January from deep (57.1%) he became way too enamored with the three point shot (probably in an effort to impress NBA scouts) and shot 17.2% over the past two months on 3.2 attempts per game and he also definitely started hunting for blocks instead of playing positional defense after blocking five shots against Duke but even so he still shot 36.4% from three in ACC play and posted a Drtg of 98.1 on the year to lead the team so neither of those flaws hurt the team too badly. We desperately need him to come back next year and right now I would probably put those odds around 2/1 with limited inside info so let's hope for the best.
Gerald Drumgoole - There were signs late in the season that he may have fixed his broken jump shot as he went 2/5 from three and 4/4 from the line after the North Carolina game so if he can find that he could have value as a three year rotation player here. Or he might not and he might transfer. It's really impossible to say.
John Hugley - I'm still working on the assumption that he is almost certainly never going to put on a Pitt uniform again but I don't believe that anything official has been announced yet. He started his college career terribly, even outside of stealing a car, as he was one of the biggest reasons that we lost to St. Francis and he was completely overmatched against Northwestern but seemed as though he was starting to turn it around in ACC play (105.5 Ortg for 3rd on the team and 104.2 Drtg for 2nd in a small sample size). Is a huge loss for the team going forward as he was a guaranteed starter for the next four years.
THE DEPARTURE
Terrell Brown - So long, Terrell. You were an incredibly frustrating player sometimes but in spite of your physical limitations you're still leaving Pitt 4th all time in blocked shots and the single game record holder. The funniest thing about Brown is really that he never changed as a player, he remained an elite shot blocker, a decent rebounder, and a bad finisher with enough touch to shoot over 60% from the line every single season that he was here. His stats were really like clockwork (and he also played like a clockwork basketball player) and part of me is going to miss having him around.
