OT.....Pirates and Nutting

[Pittbaseball11]

People wanted Happ. 1.20 whip, 3.36 ERA, 77 ERA-, 92 FIP- this year. That's a solid mid rotation SP putting those numbers up in AL.

I wanted Cueto.

Happ's track record is nowhere near a mid-level starter, though. Nor did he pitch like a mid-level starter here -- not with a hard hit % over 40%.

Cueto is Cueto. Injury concerns might have knocked his price down, but they didn't and he (not surprisingly) went to a team at the end of their widow who is just looking for a couple more years. I even posted Baseball Prospectus' write up saying as much.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

So you're content with wasting those pitches in AAA? That's dumb.

Of course I am. He hasn't pitched in 2 years. I'm not doing anything aggressive with that arm.

 

[mvk112]

Happ's track record is nowhere near a mid-level starter, though. Nor did he pitch like a mid-level starter here -- not with a hard hit % over 40%.

Cueto is Cueto. Injury concerns might have knocked his price down, but they didn't and he (not surprisingly) went to a team at the end of their widow who is just looking for a couple more years. I even posted Baseball Prospectus' write up saying as much.

Happ was not a mid rotation starter here. Obviously they found something in his repertoire and game planned his pitches and he became a top line SP here. And he has continued his success back in the AL.

And again, the Giants aren't at the end of their window, no matter how much you want to make that a narrative.

 

[mvk112]

Of course I am. He hasn't pitched in 2 years. I'm not doing anything aggressive with that arm.

He was still pitching in AAA right? No matter where he does it, pitching is pitching.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

He was still pitching in AAA right? No matter where he does it, pitching is pitching.

Except in places like the minors where you literally have guys who will go into a start and throw nothing but fastballs.

You can have a guy do specific things and operate at less than 100% in the minors. You absolutely cannot do that at at the major league level.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Happ was not a mid rotation starter here. Obviously they found something in his repertoire and game planned his pitches and he became a top line SP here. And he has continued his success back in the AL.

And again, the Giants aren't at the end of their window, no matter how much you want to make that a narrative.

RE: Happ, he's not the pitcher last year that he is this year. His fly balls are back up, strikeouts are down, walks are up.

RE: Cueto, here's BP's stance on where the Giants are. Given past precedent, I would agree with their evaluation of things:

"Brian Sabean is taking the risk anyway, because the Giants are in as good a position to make a leveraged bet as they’re likely to be for a long while. They’re an expensive team, these days: Cueto will become their seventh eight-figure investment for 2016, and he pushes their projected payroll into the $170 million range. Maybe they can afford that, but they can’t throw it around lightly. Some of the vital members of this core are moving toward the end of either their team control or their prime seasons, and that applies both time and financial pressure to the pursuit of another title or two.

The bullpen is old. Hunter Pence is old. Angel Pagan is headed for free agency. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey are both 29, and while they’re both great, Posey is already expensive, and Crawford is about to be. The Giants are on the hook with them well into their 30s. The farm system is bad. So the time is now."

 

[Delpanther]

LOL.

LOL, to you. No one anywhwere buy's, supports or espouses your view on this point. No one, not anywhere!

 

[Pittbaseball11]

LOL, to you. No one anywhwere buy's, supports or espouses your view on this point. No one, not anywhere!

If you read any writer or site that uses viewpoints that were formed after the 70's, you'd see it plenty.

 

[Delpanther]

If you read any writer or site that uses viewpoints that were formed after the 70's, you'd see it plenty.

Baloney, you conjure this nonsense up yourself and try to spin it as widely held "modern" conventional thinking. It's the thinking of a Kook.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Baloney, you conjure this nonsense up yourself and try to spin it as widely held "modern" conventional thinking. It's the thinking of a Kook.

You can go ahead and read Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus or The Hardball Times or Beyond The Box Score if you don't believe me.

 

[Delpanther]

All you Nutting apologists need to read Zeise's latest blog on the Pirates in the PG comparing the strategies of the Pirates and Royals. He essentially espouses the very views of the anti-Nutsack group in this thread. When you're close to championship caliber team, you go for it(spend some money); you don't stick your head in the sand and expect a miracle from the AAA farm team, the penny pincher's approach.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

All you Nutting apologists need to read Zeise's latest blog on the Pirates in the PG comparing the strategies of the Pirates and Royals. He essentially espouses the very views of the anti-Nutsack group in this thread. When you're close to championship caliber team, you go for it(spend some money); you don't stick your head in the sand and expect a miracle from the AAA farm team, the penny pincher's approach.

Paul Zeise is an absolute idiot who espouses archaic viewpoints and outdated thinking. He's a total buffoon when it comes to baseball, the entire Pittsburgh media is.

 

[Delpanther]

You can go ahead and read Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus or The Hardball Times or Beyond The Box Score if you don't believe me.

Are those pieces fiction or non-fiction?

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Are those pieces fiction or non-fiction?

Less fictional than the things Paul Zeise writes when it comes to modern baseball strategy and theory.

 

[Delpanther]

Paul Zeise is an absolute idiot who espouses archaic viewpoints and outdated thinking. He's a total buffoon when it comes to baseball, the entire Pittsburgh media is.

Ha, Ha, I could have predicted your response in a heartbeat. Everyone but you knows nothing about BB when you're the outlier with all the screwy opinions and theories. Your theories are classified the same as the Divergent movie series, futuristic fiction.

 

[Delpanther]

Less fictional than the things Paul Zeise writes when it comes to modern baseball strategy and theory.

I'll grant you one thing...you're one persistent character...how many hours have you invested in this thread?

 

[Pittbaseball11]

I'll grant you one thing...you're one persistent character...how many hours have you invested in this thread?

Not many. Fast typer, fast reader, pretty good memory so I can pull up reference articles quickly.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Ha, Ha, I could have predicted your response in a heartbeat. Everyone but you knows nothing about BB when you're the outlier with all the screwy opinions and theories. Your theories are classified the same as the Divergent movie series, futuristic fiction.

LOL.

Tell you what, you keep relying on Paul Zeise and I'll keep reading the people who actually get hired into baseball front offices and aren't stuck at some half rate paper in a small town.

That way, you can get outraged about the Pirates trading Travis Snider and not having a big offseason like the Diamondbacks did (boy, Zeise shut up about them pretty quick, huh?) and I'll go ahead and call those moves smart and stupid, respectively.

 

[mvk112]

RE: Happ, he's not the pitcher last year that he is this year. His fly balls are back up, strikeouts are down, walks are up.

RE: Cueto, here's BP's stance on where the Giants are. Given past precedent, I would agree with their evaluation of things:

"Brian Sabean is taking the risk anyway, because the Giants are in as good a position to make a leveraged bet as they’re likely to be for a long while. They’re an expensive team, these days: Cueto will become their seventh eight-figure investment for 2016, and he pushes their projected payroll into the $170 million range. Maybe they can afford that, but they can’t throw it around lightly. Some of the vital members of this core are moving toward the end of either their team control or their prime seasons, and that applies both time and financial pressure to the pursuit of another title or two.

The bullpen is old. Hunter Pence is old. Angel Pagan is headed for free agency. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey are both 29, and while they’re both great, Posey is already expensive, and Crawford is about to be. The Giants are on the hook with them well into their 30s. The farm system is bad. So the time is now."

Happ's ground ball rate is the highest it's been since 2012, his walks are at 2.5 per 9, much lower than any pre-2015 year, and his strikeouts are in line with his career totals. You're really reaching here.

As for the Giants, Jesus, Angel Pagan? Who the hell cares about Angel Pagan? And don't even mention Belt and Bumgardner? And Posey/Crawford... they're great but they have them into their 30's!!! Oh no, how bad is it that they have great players into their 30's?

That article is completely stupid, no wonder you reference it.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Happ's ground ball rate is the highest it's been since 2012, his walks are at 2.5 per 9, much lower than any pre-2015 year, and his strikeouts are in line with his career totals. You're really reaching here.

As for the Giants, Jesus, Angel Pagan? Who the hell cares about Angel Pagan? And don't even mention Belt and Bumgardner? And Posey/Crawford... they're great but they have them into their 30's!!! Oh no, how bad is it that they have great players into their 30's?

That article is completely stupid, no wonder you reference it.

All I'm saying for Happ is that the only way you think he's a mid rotation starter or worth what he got paid is if he puts up the numbers he did last year. As it is, his FIP and xFIP are closer to his career numbers than his 2015 numbers. Regarding the ground ball rate, he said he was throwing his fastball in on the hands more in order to get more ground balls once he came to Pittsburgh -- so he was either lying last year about inducing more ground balls (my guess) in order to explain his sudden random spike in performance or he didn't actually make a long-term fix at all.

RE: Posey and Crawford -- aging curves do exist for a reason. And that's especially true for guys up the middle. They're getting expensive in the years they're most likely to decline (age 30 is when it starts in the post-steroid era). I'm sure the Phillies thought it'd be wonderful to keep the gang together into their 30's as well.

Belt is 28. He's also a 1B. Again, aging curves.

Pagan isn't great, but he's on pace to be a 2.0 WAR player -- that's nothing special but when your farm system is bare that's a problem because you can't make up for that loss internally. Gonna cost you at least $10MM a year on the open market, probably more, and they don't necessarily have that much flexibility.

Bumgarner is great. But, one player isn't going to buoy a bunch of old guys who are declining. Look at Mike Trout in Anaheim.

People overrate the impact one player has, by and large (e.g. OMG the Pirates need to win before Cutch leaves otherwise they're screwed).

Most likely, the Giants see their window ending around 2018/2019. They'll wind up trading Bumgarner to expedite the rebuild, most likely.

 

[mvk112]

Angel Pagan is making $11.25m, so giving an OF $10m+ to replace him will be no issue. It's what organizations that value winning championships do.

So if their window is closing in 2019, then that's nowhere close to the end of their window.

And the Giants won't trade Bumgardner, they'll fill in with good pieces around him, just as they have done these past 7 years.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Angel Pagan is making $11.25m, so giving an OF $10m+ to replace him will be no issue. It's what organizations that value winning championships do.

So if their window is closing in 2019, then that's nowhere close to the end of their window.

And the Giants won't trade Bumgardner, they'll fill in with good pieces around him, just as they have done these past 7 years.

How do you fill in around Bumgarner when the farm system is dried up? They filled in around guys before because they had a good farm system.

What do you do when Cueto exercises his opt-out in 2 years? Or, more concerning, what do you do when Cueto decides to opt-in to the end of the deal because he's struggled so badly?

How do you guarantee that your replacement for Pagan will be worth 2.0 WAR? You're going to pay a guy like he's worth 2 wins, but he's also going to be in his 30's because that's just the nature of the beast with free agents, so where is that guarantee coming from? Do you just re-sign a 35 year old Pagan?

You're acting like these things are so neat and tidy, but ignoring the big picture.

Teams have limits on what they'll spend. This idea that teams will spend whatever is necessary in order to win is just childish. I don't know if it's the dumb little media narrative surrounding Steinbrenner or what, but the object of all of these owners first and foremost is to make money. Nobody is repeatedly taking a loss in the name of winning, any owner who says he's taking a loss or is breaking even so that he can win is a total liar.

They might be in a net loss position once you take the non-cash expenses into account, but their operating cash flows are absolutely going to be positive.

If I didn't make it clear, my guess is they either rebuild as soon as Cueto opts out after 2017 (meaning the window is closed in 2018) or they give it one more shot with Bumgarner in 2018 but then ultimately trade him when he still has a lot of value prior to 2019 (meaning the window closes for 2019).

For all intents and purposes, though, they're operating as if 2016 and 2017 are their last clearly defined years of contention.

 

[mvk112]

I think the Giants know what they're doing, they have won a few championships lately and are currently the best team in the NL. But yeah, preach on and tell them how to run their organization. Cost control and years of control are only valued this much by front office fans here in Pittsburgh. The rest of the world wants to win and realized sometimes you have to pay for real talent to do so.

They have Belt, Posey, Crawford, Bumgardner, Samardzija, Panik, etc under contract for awhile, but sure, they're operating like they're done after after 2017.

 

[Delpanther]

How do you fill in around Bumgarner when the farm system is dried up? They filled in around guys before because they had a good farm system.

What do you do when Cueto exercises his opt-out in 2 years? Or, more concerning, what do you do when Cueto decides to opt-in to the end of the deal because he's struggled so badly?

How do you guarantee that your replacement for Pagan will be worth 2.0 WAR? You're going to pay a guy like he's worth 2 wins, but he's also going to be in his 30's because that's just the nature of the beast with free agents, so where is that guarantee coming from? Do you just re-sign a 35 year old Pagan?

You're acting like these things are so neat and tidy, but ignoring the big picture.

Teams have limits on what they'll spend. This idea that teams will spend whatever is necessary in order to win is just childish. I don't know if it's the dumb little media narrative surrounding Steinbrenner or what, but the object of all of these owners first and foremost is to make money. Nobody is repeatedly taking a loss in the name of winning, any owner who says he's taking a loss or is breaking even so that he can win is a total liar.

They might be in a net loss position once you take the non-cash expenses into account, but their operating cash flows are absolutely going to be positive.

If I didn't make it clear, my guess is they either rebuild as soon as Cueto opts out after 2017 (meaning the window is closed in 2018) or they give it one more shot with Bumgarner in 2018 but then ultimately trade him when he still has a lot of value prior to 2019 (meaning the window closes for 2019).

For all intents and purposes, though, they're operating as if 2016 and 2017 are their last clearly defined years of contention.

Looks like the Bucs are starting the annual dumpster dive to save face. Any starting pitchers out there like Happ last year that may be attainable without giving up a boatload of prospects? The pitching staff is a huge mess. If Glasnow and Taillon can't be counted on to pitch in the rotation regularly until the end of the year, the Bucs are going to be scrambling mightily-not a pretty picture. Bucs played dead again last night when confronted with a top flight pitcher...same old story.

 

[PhPanther1]

I'm not going to read back all through this novel, but it's very obvious what is going on here. After 21 years of losing, Nutting knows that the fanbase will be happy with a competitive team for 10 years vs 3 or 4 years of championship runs followed by 6 years of not so competitive teams. He doesn't care if he wins a championship, that's not his goal. His goal is to stay at or above .500 for as long as he can to keep the lemmings coming into the stadium. He has no interest in blowing up his wallet for 1 year to make a push for a trophy, because it will cost him an extra year of revenue of a competitive team when he has to give up a prospect or lose a year of contract control. Let's be real here, Pirate fans are happy to be in the game, they don't require trophies like the other sports in town.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

I think the Giants know what they're doing, they have won a few championships lately and are currently the best team in the NL. But yeah, preach on and tell them how to run their organization. Cost control and years of control are only valued this much by front office fans here in Pittsburgh. The rest of the world wants to win and realized sometimes you have to pay for real talent to do so.

They have Belt, Posey, Crawford, Bumgardner, Samardzija, Panik, etc under contract for awhile, but sure, they're operating like they're done after after 2017.

LOL.

They're operating the exact way I've said the Pirates should act when they're at the end of their window. Where did I, or the article I posted, say they were doing it wrong?

 

[88Pitt88]

I'm not going to read back all through this novel, but it's very obvious what is going on here. After 21 years of losing, Nutting knows that the fanbase will be happy with a competitive team for 10 years vs 3 or 4 years of championship runs followed by 6 years of not so competitive teams. He doesn't care if he wins a championship, that's not his goal. His goal is to stay at or above .500 for as long as he can to keep the lemmings coming into the stadium. He has no interest in blowing up his wallet for 1 year to make a push for a trophy, because it will cost him an extra year of revenue of a competitive team when he has to give up a prospect or lose a year of contract control. Let's be real here, Pirate fans are happy to be in the game, they don't require trophies like the other sports in town.

Pretty accurate summation. There are some on here that just caan't admit that though. For those who don't like it, don't come on here and say that we are accusing the buccos of not tryiing. They are trying to win, but it is not the ultimate goal. Sorry, it's just not!

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Looks like the Bucs are starting the annual dumpster dive to save face. Any starting pitchers out there like Happ last year that may be attainable without giving up a boatload of prospects? The pitching staff is a huge mess. If Glasnow and Taillon can't be counted on to pitch in the rotation regularly until the end of the year, the Bucs are going to be scrambling mightily-not a pretty picture. Bucs played dead again last night when confronted with a top flight pitcher...same old story.

It's one year. People are just so anxious to blow their loads as quickly as possible, I feel awful for y'alls significant others.

Playing for one year or limiting your competitive horizon in baseball is an absolutely awful way to manage a franchise. Being the best team means nothing come playoffs, because the best team rarely actually wins. It's an archaic belief that's continually put out there by a braindead media desperate to make mountains out of mole hills when it comes to free agent signings and trades.

 

[Delpanther]

It's one year. People are just so anxious to blow their loads as quickly as possible, I feel awful for y'alls significant others.

Playing for one year or limiting your competitive horizon in baseball is an absolutely awful way to manage a franchise. Being the best team means nothing come playoffs, because the best team rarely actually wins. It's an archaic belief that's continually put out there by a braindead media desperate to make mountains out of mole hills when it comes to free agent signings and trades.

You ignore the long road of futility. One year...very deceiving in the whole scheme of things.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

You ignore the long road of futility. One year...very deceiving in the whole scheme of things.

I ignore it because the current regime in place is completely and totally different than the one that was operating them for 20+ years, I believe in thinking logically, and I don't have the entitlement complex of a small child.

Aside from how they handled themselves in 2011 and 2012 at the trade deadlines (you know, back when I was a Pirates hater for saying they were stupid for buying instead of selling), I have nothing to really complain about with how they've operated as a low revenue franchise.

They're one of the more respected franchises in the game at this point. I don't really know what more you can ask for in baseball. There's too much randomness.

 

[88Pitt88]

I ignore it because the current regime in place is completely and totally different than the one that was operating them for 20+ years, I believe in thinking logically, and I don't have the entitlement complex of a small child.

Aside from how they handled themselves in 2011 and 2012 at the trade deadlines (you know, back when I was a Pirates hater for saying they were stupid for buying instead of selling), I have nothing to really complain about with how they've operated as a low revenue franchise.

They're one of the more respected franchises in the game at this point. I don't really know what more you can ask for in baseball. There's too much randomness.

They are run very well and I have admitted this before. I have enjoyed reading this thread and it may never end. However, they are specifically run to stay within a certain budget range that keeps them competitive and keeps the ballpark full of fans. This indeed appears to be enough for most bucco fans, maybe it will yield a world series championship or even an appearance some day, but ownership/management will not exceed the parameterss they have set to achieve this. To reinforce, they are well run, but winning is not the ultimate goal!

 

[Delpanther]

I ignore it because the current regime in place is completely and totally different than the one that was operating them for 20+ years, I believe in thinking logically, and I don't have the entitlement complex of a small child.

Aside from how they handled themselves in 2011 and 2012 at the trade deadlines (you know, back when I was a Pirates hater for saying they were stupid for buying instead of selling), I have nothing to really complain about with how they've operated as a low revenue franchise.

They're one of the more respected franchises in the game at this point. I don't really know what more you can ask for in baseball. There's too much randomness.

You fail to recognize that even as a minority owner Nutting and his family exerted significant control over the Pirates organization and the financial moves they made. To suggest that they didn't have their finger prints all over the Pirates before they assumed is naive and false.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

You fail to recognize that even as a minority owner Nutting and his family exerted significant control over the Pirates organization and the financial moves they made. To suggest that they didn't have their finger prints all over the Pirates before they assumed is naive and false.

LOL. Okay, Del. Hope that tinfoil hat of yours doesn't get too hot in the July heat today.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

They are run very well and I have admitted this before. I have enjoyed reading this thread and it may never end. However, they are specifically run to stay within a certain budget range that keeps them competitive and keeps the ballpark full of fans. This indeed appears to be enough for most bucco fans, maybe it will yield a world series championship or even an appearance some day, but ownership/management will not exceed the parameterss they have set to achieve this. To reinforce, they are well run, but winning is not the ultimate goal!

Given the current landscape of the game I would strongly disagree, but I recognize there's still quite a bit of paranoia in Pittsburgh, to say nothing of the belief that payroll is an indicator of commitment and team strength.

In today's landscape, payroll more or less just indicates how many horrible contracts you're able to eat without completely crippling yourself.

 

[Delpanther]

LOL. Okay, Del. Hope that tinfoil hat of yours doesn't get too hot in the July heat today.

posts like this prove how really inexperienced and dumb you are.

 

[mvk112]

Given the current landscape of the game I would strongly disagree, but I recognize there's still quite a bit of paranoia in Pittsburgh, to say nothing of the belief that payroll is an indicator of commitment and team strength.

In today's landscape, payroll more or less just indicates how many horrible contracts you're able to eat without completely crippling yourself.

You are completely ridiculous with your assertion that teams only have high payrolls because of bad contracts. And likewise that the small payroll teams don't have bad contracts. The Pirates give out tens of millions of dollars per year in bad contracts. They would be much better off giving that money to one good player and fill in with their prospects and guys like Joyce, who they weren't depending on to be a starter.

 

[mvk112]

LOL.

They're operating the exact way I've said the Pirates should act when they're at the end of their window. Where did I, or the article I posted, say they were doing it wrong?

But the Giants aren't at the end of their window. All of their best players are either entering their prime or in the middle of their prime.

The Pirates should have gone out and added the big money guys like Cueto this off season to put them over the top and take them from hoping to make the wild card to being a favorite to win the NL. You spend when your talent is in their prime, like the Giants, or when their entering their prime, like the Cubs, not at the end of their run, like the Phillies.

Your views on this are completely backwards, and it is just this type of spend at the end of the run nonsense that pushed the Phillies back at least two years, if not more, in their rebuild.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

You are completely ridiculous with your assertion that teams only have high payrolls because of bad contracts. And likewise that the small payroll teams don't have bad contracts. The Pirates give out tens of millions of dollars per year in bad contracts. They would be much better off giving that money to one good player and fill in with their prospects and guys like Joyce, who they weren't depending on to be a starter.

Okay. You know what happens to small payroll teams with bad contracts? They become the Brewers, Reds, and Twins.

The Red Sox spend money on Sandoval and Castillo and just keep on spending when they bust. The Dodgers are paying Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford more than just about any Pirate solely so they won't be on their team anymore.

But yeah, you keep beating that drum that bad, long-term contracts are no big deal.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

But the Giants aren't at the end of their window. All of their best players are either entering their prime or in the middle of their prime.

The Pirates should have gone out and added the big money guys like Cueto this off season to put them over the top and take them from hoping to make the wild card to being a favorite to win the NL. You spend when your talent is in their prime, like the Giants, or when their entering their prime, like the Cubs, not at the end of their run, like the Phillies.

Your views on this are completely backwards, and it is just this type of spend at the end of the run nonsense that pushed the Phillies back at least two years, if not more, in their rebuild.

Okay. Yeah I'm gonna stick with my aging curves and last precedent. You keep pretending like a team full of 28 and 29 year olds is in the middle of their prime.

I'm out. This conversation is turning into a debate about how to run an organization in the 1980's.

 

[pierre93]

And you can also purchase this from Nutsack!!!!! WTF?????
http://shop.mlb.com/Pittsburgh_Pira...ew_Era_Navy_Fathers_Day_9FORTY_Adjustable_Hat