You're not listening to what I'm saying if that's what you got out of it. There is a lot more to being valuable to the P5 than anything you mentioned in the second paragraph. Nobody is investing in UCF based on anything you're talking about because it's media money that's driving everything in CFB. How much more money does a conference make for adding UCF to it's inventory? The Big12 wants to sign a media deal that runs out into the 2030's or further. They don't care if you win or if 30k people show up to games. They only care if you make them more money when you saddle up for a barn burner in Lawrence some Thursday night in early November. Every other conference will use the same kind of math. It's all about the $$$$$$$.
Actually, all of it is extremely apropos to the B12. Every single thing I mentioned directly relate to fitting into a P5 conference and satisfying the bottom line. But you are more than welcome to disagree. Having an astute/forward thinking AD is probably the most important factor with having a successful athletic department, we have that. Danny White has struck lightning twice with its head football coach. That has led to a consistent winning program since his hiring. That directly relates to more people tuning in to watch UCF which means more money for ESPN. That is the bottom line. Viewership. Having a packed stadium means people are interested. That's correlated with viewership. Having facilities such as 65,000 stadium means that if UCF joined the B12, they could easily accommodate any fan base traveling to Orlando. The large student body means tons of new grads that will be Knight fans. That means more viewership. All the things I mentioned have a direct correlation to viewership and thus make it an attractive property to ESPN. When the B12 negotiations were occurring, we had one of the worst seasons in school history and serves as an anomaly, not the norm. That winless season nose dived the progress and thus ratings during a critical time of negotiation with ESPN. Just because UCF wasn't added then due to not moving the needle doesn't mean there isn't a wealth of statistics to show UCF isn't a smart choice now or will be in 2024.
Also, the Big12 probably isn't going anywhere and they've put themselves in a position to rake in more revenue per school than two other P5 conferences. Passing on UCF was one of the more forward thinking moves the conference made because they passed on a short term cash grab to improve their position with the GOR negotiations and improved T3 returns while they were at it. Now it's a numbers game. It's no secret that TV wants them at 12 schools but Texas/OU have shown they don't care so long as their own TV deals keep them fat and happy. Somewhere in the middle is where the conference lands.
They are being reactive instead of proactive. That in its very nature is not forward thinking. As far as forward thinking goes, the B12 is one team away from being relegated to the new Big East. OU fans are thirsting for the SEC and are tired of playing second fiddle to Texas while watching Texas milk the Long Horn Network at $15mil per year. If OU goes, I can see Texas going independent like ND or possibly heading to the ACC once the LHN expires in 2035. A forward thinking conference would try to setup a backup measure in the event TX/OU leaves. If they recruited UCF + Cincinatti, by the time said scenario occurs, both teams will have had time to solidify itself on the national stage; thus a much better chance of preventing a Power shift if/when TX/OU leaves. If they wait until AFTER that happens, it's almost a foregone conclusion it'll be a Power 4 (and maybe that's what ESPN wants?).
Texas has been mediocre at best since the early 2000's. Oklahoma and TCU are the only one producing. In an era where only 4 teams get into the playoff; expecting Oklahoma to carry the torch every year is just a bad business decision. Inviting a rising star with inherent recruiting advantages, multiple NY6 wins and literally winning their conference championship 50% of the time since it's inception serves as proof that they have a winning program. They aren't having to take a leap of faith that UCF will produce if promoted.
You can claim that UCF won't be as successful in the B12 as it was in the AAC. History shows UCF has been the top team in every conference its been in. They compete with 2 and 3 star talent against teams with FAR better classes and seem to do just fine. But some how they will fair worse with access to even better players? Yeah okay.
UCF brings in millions of viewership annually with only 1-2 P5 teams each year. You're telling me with a full conference schedule of P5 teams, we couldn't hit the same viewership of half the B12 members or more? The media footprint of the B12 is a joke. I would contest that UCF would surpass every team not named Texas/Oklahoma in viewership in 3 years or less.
My suggestion to you is to pray WVU gets cold feet AND the ACC sees some value ($$$) in adding them. UCF's best lane to the P5 is if another conference takes something from the Big12 or the Big12 poaches someone the ACC. Go ahead and run that second scenario a few times and you'll see it's pretty unlikely. Nobody in their right mind is leaving the B1G, ACC, or SEC to go to the Big12 and none of the other Florida schools are opening a door for you to join the party (it's also why Temple and Houston join the conversation).
Remember, it's money before all else. If winning or the quality of football and fandom mattered, well, look at half the schools in the ACC. It doesn't.
I agree with this assessment.
