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Thoughts on the SMU game

Their undefeated season, until yesterday, brought a lot of media attention to this team which more than likely was a distraction. Also, this was the first time they played out of their Eastern time zone which may have contributed to lethargic energy displayed last night. Bottom line this was the worst the Panthers have played and all pieces contributed to such.
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Virginia is a pivotal game

Just my opinion, but the CFP talk is unbelievably unwarranted and we should stop thinking of this team in terms of it. We're not one of the 12 best teams in college football.

We can talk about playoffs because its fun. We know we arent going to go 11-1 and even if we did, Im not sure 11-1 gets us in now. However, if you beat UVa, you set the stage for what's still a really big game with Clemson. Clemson is certainly beatable. If you can get to 9-1, you are 2 winnable games from potentially the CFP. Louisville will be a 3 or 4 point favorite and we are probably a slight favorite over BC. Those games are both winnable. So while I dont think we are going to finish 4-0, its also not impossible.

Thoughts on the SMU game

Some of these thoughts have already been expressed….

*The oddsmakers are once again correct. I guess we know why Pitt was 7.5 underdog.

*The turnout by Pitt fans for the game was fantastic. Kudos for showing up at a road game that’s not in driving distance. Too bad Pitt didn’t show up as well. However….

*SMU is a much better team period. Their only loss is to playoff contender, BYU. In fact, I think they’re just as good as Miami.

*SMU is a faster team than Pitt. Texas is as deep as Florida for football talent. A good reason to keep looking in Texas for recruits.

*I’m a little concerned about the play calling. It’s almost becoming predictable? Reid up the middle. Pass to Reid. Reid to the outside. I know he’s the best playmaker on the team, but it’s clear that defenses are keying in him. I don’t know what the solution is at this point with Holstein struggling. Perhaps a little more methodical on the play calling until Holstein is more comfortable?

*I don’t understand the lack of use of Daniel Carter. We all know that he’s not a threat to go all the way on every carry, but he can pick you up a few yards at a time and sometimes can break off longer gains. He seems to be a good runner between the tackles unlike Reid.

*The defense did a 180 from last week against Syracuse. No turnovers again by the defense. The tackling was poor. No pressure up front. Even when they got pressure on the QB, they weren’t fast enough to close in on him.

*As for Holstein, I know the OL is not playing well, but he’s not the QB we’ve seen the first 5 weeks of the season. I’m of the opinion that Holstein should start next week, but have a short leash. He needs more work on his mechanics.

*If we lose to Virginia next week, the season could spiral out of control with Clemson and Louisville on deck and BC on the road is not a bad team either. It’s a must win.
Happy feet most likely attributed to poor Oline play.
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KenPom Beginning ratings vs Pitt Schedule

Using the KenPom starting ratings and giving Pitt a 3 point HCA predicts Pitt by 27 points over Radford.
I could be wrong but I believe you are looking at the difference between the Adjusted Efficiency Margins (AdjEM) of each team that is on the KenPom front page.

From KenPom, "AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s simple subtraction. Even your dog can do it. It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions and it has the advantage of being a linear measure. The difference between +31 and +28 is the same as the difference between +4 and +1."

However, the typical college game is only roughly 68-70 possessions.

Kenpom's expected spreads are roughly calculated like this:
((Home AdjEM - Away AdjEM) / 100) * Expected Possessions + 3 HomeCourtAdv

Using Monday's game as an example:
((Pitt 16.66 - Radford -7.49) / 100) * 69 + 3 = 19.66

Thoughts on the SMU game

SMU is SEC good. We can analyze this inside and out but SMU is really really good. Its a team that could mess around and end up playing for the Natty. They were more talented than us at every single position on the field.

Eh. They played Louisville, Nevada, BYU, and Duke very tit for tat. If you only watched the Pitt/Syracuse game, you'd think we were a national championship contender.
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