You’re not gonna find ranting and raving here. There are plenty of other threads for that. Just deep breaths and honest reflections about a challenged program in a challenging CFB landscape.
Here are some core realities for Pitt FB that aren’t disputable IMO:
- Narduzzi has been a stable and consistent coach, has built a program with mostly good character kids, who mostly play hard for him and each other.
- The program under his leadership has had a couple of peaks and valleys, but has mostly been a mid-high floor program (6-8 wins), and one of the more successful programs in the ACC over that time period (FWIW).
- After the first few years, his teams have taken on a certain D identity - aggressive, risk-taking, attacking, and the D has had some success with it. It’s not been consistent, but that’s the nature of that kind of defense. High-risk, high-reward. Lots of sacks, disruption, and turnovers when it’s working, but exploitable through weakness in personnel and explosive plays by highly talented players on the other team. Fans of Pitt pre-Narduzzi know all too well what the other side of the coin looks like in terms of style. Personally, I don’t enjoy bend but don’t break defenses, but there are plenty of successful teams running them, so it’s not like they don’t have merit.
- The offense identities have been as diverse as the D has been consisten - the Achilles heel of a defensive HC orientation. They have varied and ranged based on personnel and the OC’s. Some of have been successful and some have been train wrecks.
- College Football has changed significantly over the nine years since PN became HC at Pitt. Most of that change has disadvantaged Pitt in the landscape, and that’s mostly due to financial support/access and larger conference dynamics - with us being in one of the two remaining power conferences that are in a significantly weaker position than the other two.
- Those changing dynamics aren’t stable, and are more likely to change significantly from the current state than not. They’re also largely out of the control of the University and to an extent the ACC and Big 12.
- Narduzzi teams have struggled with focus. That’s the word I’m choosing. I’m not sure if it’s comprehensive of all of the issues that I’m thinking of, but over 9 years of study, I think it’s the root cause of most. They manifest as receivers dropping balls, WTF games like Western Michigan and yesterday, busted plays, lack of effort in completing plays, and correctable penalties. There’s probably more that I’m not thinking of.
- Pat knows this is an issue - it comes up a lot in press conferences. He usually takes responsibility for those issues, but at the same time he seems perplexed by them. This is PN’s biggest weakness, and if he’s fired it will be why.
- There have been a lot of narratives about Duzz that haven’t been true, have been partly true, and/or where he’s shown the ability to rethink/adjust/completely change counter to those narratives. The focus issue is one that he hasn’t figured out how to adjust or correct yet. At this point it feels unlikely that he will be able to, but again, he’s shown an ability to change.
- I don’t think that point 1 and point 7 are mutually exclusive. It requires some nuanced thinking, but we’ve had teams that are tight, are passionate, and have overcome some lack of focus, and we’ve always had kids with character and that are good students under PN.
- Pitt has performed better than the talent level (based on recruiting records) across his tenure. They’ve also identified and developed some incredible players who performed way above expectations. That’s not a given under every coach.
- Pitt would be taking a risk in seeking another coach. Setting aside buyout, and short of a run of losing seasons, everything that PN brings - stability, character, performing above talent level would be risked and a new coach would need to be able to maintain that doing more with less standard while also improving on it.
- Coaching turnover and instability can be catastrophic. Anyone that has followed Pitt long enough should know that in their bones.
- The jury is out on Kade Bell. The season started out looking like we hit the power ball, and then it’s been steeply downhill since. He’s admitted himself that he’s had to adjust here, but I think it’s also fair that he doesn’t have his OL, his players, and hasn’t had the time to get a fair shake and evaluation of him and his system.
That’s the context of where we are as I see it. I don’t think a W or L next week will change any of it. What I’m looking for is whether PN is willing and able to make the kinds of dramatic changes around the focus issue that he was around his offensive staff last season.
If that’s what’s in debatable, what is debatable? For me, it’s what can/should they do to improve focus? What programs/coaches exemplify focus, and what do they do? What can Pitt do to improve our position in the CFB landscape?
Can a focus shake up happen? What does that look like?
