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Thoughts on the team and season at this moment

I know I'm generally perceived as a negative ass hat by alot of people on here haha, but I have been pretty on board with this team this year and positive.

Right now, after the past two weeks it's hard to look at the team and see anything positive BUT they are 7-2, and again we all would have been elated with this at the beginning of the season. I think maybe this team is just reverting back to their level a little bit and realistically, while better than last year, they weren't ever really CFP caliber.

The offesne has started to have issues, but also...they still are running something completely new with a Redshirt Freshman QB, it would be crazy to not expect issues with that transition - it just seems that teams have adjusted and now Eli (and Bell) need to develop further and adjust to the initial adjustments. I think the OL recruiting is really coming back to bite us AND none of these guys were recruited to block in this type of offense, so the issue there is two-fold. We all thought the D might take a step back and they have but have still been solid and I think are fine. I do think if Eli didn't get knocked out they beat UVA, and honestly probably cover.

I don't think Eli plays this week and I think they have a rough day against Clemson, but still have a shot to win the last two. Hopefully if Eli is out this week he can come back against Louisville and honestly maybe missing a game isn't the worst thing for Eli.

People want Narduzzi fired and are questioning Bell now at this point, but again we are 7-2. I was OK with the Bell hire (I was more against the assistant hires and their inexperience on top of bringing in Bell). But the offesne has showed flashes and HAS been effective, I think some things need adjusted - like seemingly every run playing being drawn up to go between the tackles. But I think this team has a chance at 10 wins still and if they can revamp the OL room and keep the guys they need to, could be in for a special season next year.

#16 Minnesota at #2 Nebraska

Nebraska took the match in 4 sets. Point production was close....Nebraska 17 points/set.....Minnesota 15 points/set. Minnesota gave back way too many points....29 attack errors (21 by Nebraska) and 12 service errors (5 by Nebraska). Minnesota only hit .130....but Nebraska wasn't much better at .199. Nebraska's block stood out.....12 to Minnesota's 7. This match could have been won by Minnesota without their terrible error rate.

Perspective

I know the past two games have been disappointing but most of us did not think we would be this successful at this point. I'm definitely getting ahead of myself but how do you feel we will be next season? I haven't been this optimistic about future PITT teams since 2007 when you could see we were going to have something special in the future. QB, RB, LBers all look solid. Narduzzi's secondary is always strong.
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Early Season Lineup Productivity

This is inspired by the Morning Pitt this morning. I subscribe to a site called cbbanalytics.com, which gives you full access to one team (Pitt) with a free membership. One of the most interesting tools on the site is the lineup tool, which tracks the statistics for each individual group of five players that a team uses.

It’s a small sample size with three games and 120 total minutes played, but I think it’s interesting. Here are the four highest usage lineups we have used this year, with their ORTG and DRTG.

1. Lowe, Leggett, Dunn, Guillermo, Corhen (31 minutes) - 119.2 ORTG, 83.8 DRTG (+35.4)

2. Lowe, Leggett, Dunn, Austin, Corhen (14 minutes) - 142.8 ORTG, 48.9 DRTG (+93.8)

3. Lowe, Leggett, Cummings, Austin, Guillermo (9 minutes) - 170 ORTG, 68 DRTG (+102)

4. Leggett, Dunn, Austin, Guillermo, Corhen (8 minutes) - 91.5 ORTG, 77.5 DRTG (+14.1)

A few takeaways:

1. The lineups that have Guillermo and Corhen on the court are not as productive as the lineups that only have one of them on the court. This is true both offensively and defensively.

2. The Lowe, Leggett, Dunn, Austin, Corhen lineup is obnoxiously efficient on both ends of the floor. That’s probably because the group of Leggett, Dunn and Austin has been a 97th percentile trio in college basketball this season (just those three in isolation are 132.8/77.8/+55.1). It’s still early, but I think that will end up being their best lineup this season.

3. Ish Leggett’s numbers have been absurd, and he is operating on a first team all-ACC level early in the season. He is 13/13 in attempts at the rim, his EFG% is 76.6% (94th percentile), he’s taken our toughest defensive assignments (and is in the 100th percentile for defensive win shares) and his advanced stats are pretty much in the very high 90 percentiles across the board. He is on pace to have a special, special year.

4. Zack Austin has also been a stupid good defender. His Hakeem Percentage (the total of a player’s steal rate and block rate) is 16.2%, good for 97th percentile. His block percentage alone is one of the best in college basketball. If he can provide enough offense to stay on the floor, he is a special defender, and is operating at an ACC all-defensive team level right now, if not ACCDPOY.

Just some thoughts as I play around with the lineup tools. Again, it’s a really small sample size and trying to draw too much from lineup data with under 10 total minutes played is going to be pretty faulty. But I think it’s an interesting look - partially because I think it tends to align with the eye test that a lot of us have been talking about.

PSU and IU haven't beaten a Top 40 team and they are 4 and 5

We need to talk about how weak these Big Ten schedules are. The league, in and of itself is as bad as its ever been outside of Oregon and Ohio State. PSU and IU are decent teams but more like 8-4 or 7-5 SEC type teams. Neither plays Oregon and there's not another good team in the league. Its amazing how far beating a bunch of glorified mid-majors can get you. Of course, we lost to one on Saturday.
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