Last Thursday, I was getting stir-crazy sitting around waiting for Pitt’s primetime showdown against Syracuse, so I put a bunch of thoughts on the message board to kill some times.
Here we are again: another long afternoon before another primetime game, so another post on the board.
- Unlike last week, I’m not going to start off by stating definitively that Pitt will lose a game, since that didn’t go over so well. I mean, I still think it’s really hard to go 12-0 even if you have the best roster in the country, and it only gets tougher as you work down through the talent tiers.
But that doesn’t matter right now. Just like the remaining games and Pitt’s likelihood of winning them didn’t matter against Syracuse, so too are the games against Virginia, Clemson, Louisville and Boston College meaningless tonight.
Because tonight is Pitt-SMU, and boy howdy is that a big game.
- Let’s start right there, because while we all know it, I think it bears repeating one more time:
The simple fact that this game matters as much as it does is pretty incredible.
It matters for both teams. It matters for the conference. And it matters for all of college football.
That’s wild, man. It really is.
- I don’t necessarily buy into the idea that Pitt is playing with house money right now. I mean, I appreciate the sentiment, but I think of it differently. To me, Pitt has established that it is a good team; nothing that happens tonight will change that.
But what’s at stake tonight and going forward is determining just how good the Panthers are. They might be pretty good. They might be really good. Or they might just be good.
Whatever they are, they’re interesting - to us, to the conference and to the nation.
- I think the biggest concern Pitt fans have about this game tonight is the betting line. SMU opened as the favorite and is currently still right around -7 or -7.5. The fact that the line opened around there and hasn’t really moved is concerning, since it seems like there’s a decent amount of the public that believes SMU will win by that much or more, despite the fact that Pitt is the undefeated team.
But here’s the thing: there’s not a huge difference between an undefeated team and a one-loss team. Especially not at this point in the season. When you’re seven or eight games in, the difference between undefeated and one-loss isn’t all that great - probably just one game that got away for the one-loss team.
Because this far into the season, undefeated teams and one-loss teams are both pretty good. Which is what we’re getting tonight:
Two good teams facing off. Which is pretty cool.
- Well then, what’s going to happen?
I have no idea, of course. But here’s what I think:
This Pitt team has defied expectations every step of the way this season. They were down 21 in the third quarter at Cincinnati and won. They were down 10 in the final five minutes against West Virginia and won. They have never gone undefeated in the non-conference but they did it this year. They have never won in Chapel Hill but they did it this year.
They’ve won with offense. They’ve won with defense. One side has picked up the other, and both worked together in those double-digit comebacks. And then, once all the work was done on offense and defense, special teams came through and secured a few wins, too.
- SMU is good but not Oregon/Ohio State/Georgia good (TBD on that last one, since it’s halftime and the Bulldogs are losing to Florida right now). Pitt’s resume isn’t anything special but SMU’s isn’t that much better: a loss to BYU and a win at Louisville are the best the Mustangs have to offer.
That’s not to say they’re a bad team, because they’re certainly not. Like I said: these are two good teams.
- And these two good teams about to play a primetime college football game. Sign me up for that. Sign me up for Pitt being a Good Team and taking on a Good Team. Sign me up for Pitt playing in Games That Matter.
And you know what? If it goes the wrong way tonight, if the offense just can’t get it together or the defense gives up a big drive at the wrong time or some other College Football Thing happens, sign me up for 7-1 Pitt staring down four huge games.
Games That Matter.
- Personally, I think Pitt will pull it off. I think the defense is surging and the offense is due. I think Eli Holstein gets back on track and accounts for three or four touchdowns. I think the defense gives up a few scores but makes a few more stops (with the scores coming in the first half and the stops coming in the second half). And I think Ben Sauls makes two more field goals for something like a 34-24 win.
- Either way, it’s going to be interesting. T-minus two hours.
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