1 Seeds or Field?

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

If the odds were even, would you bet a 1 seed (that's all four of them combined) to win it all this year or the field (any team that isn't a 1 seed)?





Also, I think the dumbest bet someone could make is a futures bet on a team with low odds to win it all. Uconn is +360... so, bet $100 to win $360. But if you just took that $100 and bet it on all six of their games, and included your compounded winnings, you would make more than $360.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

If the odds were even, would you bet a 1 seed to win it all this year or the field?

Also, I think the dumbest bet someone could make is a futures bet on a team with low odds to win it all. Uconn is +360... so, bet $100 to win $360. But if you just took that $100 and bet it on all six of their games, and included your compounded winnings, you would make more than $360.

I do have 100 on UConn to win it all, but that was from way earlier in the season. I got it at +1150 from ESPNBet when I was able to get a boost in the change from barstool. My host was doing whatever to keep me from DraftKings. I may actually do what you said for UConn as well.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I do have 100 on UConn to win it all, but that was from way earlier in the season. I got it at +1150 from ESPNBet when I was able to get a boost in the change from barstool. My host was doing whatever to keep me from DraftKings. I may actually do what you said for UConn as well.

Yeah, +1150 is a totally different story. But at +360 you'd have to really not understand betting. I figure you'd have like 108 after round 1 (lol), maybe 150ish after round 2, 215ish after round 3, 320ish after round 4, 525ish after round 5, and maybe 900 after round 6.

I mean, these are very rough estimates and it would depend on who they played, so it could be a little more or a little less. But I would estimate you would make about 3x as much just doing the individual games, plus you wouldn't have to bet if they got a big injury or something.

 

[TD_6082]

A number 1 seed, or the overall number 1 seed?

I would almost never feel comfortable picking one particular team vs the field. The only times I would have done so would have been Kentucky in 1996 and Kentucky in 2015. I didn't even feel comfortable the 2007 Florida team with the exact same players would repeat.

 

[Vader_Storm]

A number 1 seed, or the overall number 1 seed?

I would almost never feel comfortable picking one particular team vs the field. The only times I would have done so would have been Kentucky in 1996 and Kentucky in 2015. I didn't even feel comfortable the 2007 Florida team with the exact same players would repeat.

That's a bold pick in 1996. The 96 Kentucky team was an all time great team but that Umass team with Marcus Camby, Dana Dingle, Donta Bright, Carmelo Travieso, and the Padilla brothers was also an all time great too and beat them in the regular season. Kentucky was fortunate they hung on and won that final 4 game against Umass.

The closest I think we saw recently was in 2021 where it was Gonzaga and Baylor vs the field. These 2 teams were head and shoulders better than everyone else. And both teams essentially blew out everybody getting to the championship game.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Field.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

A number 1 seed, or the overall number 1 seed?

I would almost never feel comfortable picking one particular team vs the field. The only times I would have done so would have been Kentucky in 1996 and Kentucky in 2015. I didn't even feel comfortable the 2007 Florida team with the exact same players would repeat.

I'm saying all the number one seeds combined or the entire rest of the field combined.

I probably made it confusing my randomly adding that Uconn bit. I'll edit it.

 

[TD_6082]

That's a bold pick in 1996. The 96 Kentucky team was an all time great team but that Umass team with Marcus Camby, Dana Dingle, Donta Bright, Carmelo Travieso, and the Padilla brothers was also an all time great too and beat them in the regular season. Kentucky was fortunate they hung on and won that final 4 game against Umass.

The closest I think we saw recently was in 2021 where it was Gonzaga and Baylor vs the field. These 2 teams were head and shoulders better than everyone else. And both teams essentially blew out everybody getting to the championship game.

Yeah. The first UMass game was the second game of the season. UK was working in some really talented newcomers (Derek Anderson - Ron Mercer) and hadn't really settled on a PG yet. (turned out to be Anthony Epps.

That team just had so much talent and depth. So athletic. They just wore teams out with that full-court press. They were dominant and so much fun to watch.

 

[TD_6082]

I'm saying all the number one seeds combined or the entire rest of the field combined.

I probably made it confusing my randomly adding that Uconn bit. I'll edit it.

That's a really good question. Just looking at the brackets, I think the champion will come from one of these 7 teams. - UConn, Houston, Auburn, UNC, Purdue, Tennessee, Kentucky. 4 of those are #1 seeds. So I would be tempted to take a #1 seed this year. I wouldn't feel good about it either way though.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I think in most years the field would probably be the better bet. But this season might be one of the exceptions.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

I do have 100 on UConn to win it all, but that was from way earlier in the season. I got it at +1150 from ESPNBet when I was able to get a boost in the change from barstool. My host was doing whatever to keep me from DraftKings. I may actually do what you said for UConn as well.

I did the same with UConn very early as well.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think in most years the field would probably be the better bet. But this season might be one of the exceptions.

As fate would have it, I came home today and ESPN had some betting segment that mentioned this exact prop. The ones are -115 as a prop bet. If you bet all four individually you'd only get like a -135 payout in totality, I think they said.

Don't quote me on this, but I swear I also heard them say a 1-seed has won 24 of 38 tournaments since it expanded to 64. So it sounds like taking a 1-seed would actually be a good bet most years. I would probably contend that the transfer portal (the version of it we know today) could change that, though.

 

[BFo8]

Multiple books I see have will a #1 seed win the title at:

Yes -120
No Even

 

[docpanther26]

#1 seeds. Wonder though who will be the first number seed knocked out???

 

[BFo8]

#1 seeds. Wonder though who will be the first number seed knocked out???

Ask and ye shall receive, courtesy of Circa LV:

UConn +390
Houston +330
UNC +130
Purdue +290

I don’t think it’s much of a surprise that North Carolina is a pretty heavy favorite to be the first #1 seed to lose.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Surprise Team - I think Samford could be the underdog that makes a run this year.

 

[BFo8]

Surprise Team - I think Samford could be the underdog that makes a run this year.

What a set up for them. Samford plays at such a frenetic pace and they get a depleted team that had somewhat of a short bench anyway. If Samford can get some shots to fall early they can be dangerous.