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10% of WVU students have COVID

🚨 100% of SMF’s thread titles are his own... 🚨
 
recruitsreadtheseboards said:
In 2020 it does. New math to support whatever truth you want to believe. Ray Bradbury was dead wrong. 1984 was supposed to be 2020.
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I hate to kinda defend smf here
But
His math is closer to the reality of the situation than the replies

thats a pathetically low amount of testing at wvu
Perhaps they are taking the Donald ostrich approach ?

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Protecting Health, Saving Lives—Millions at a Time
www.jhsph.edu www.jhsph.edu
 
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recruitsreadtheseboards said:
In 2020 it does. New math to support whatever truth you want to believe. Ray Bradbury was dead wrong. 1984 was supposed to be 2020.
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So true. I don't trust any Covid numbers being reported. None. We've already see someone on this board say that he never took a test, because they ran out, but received positive results in the mail, just because enough other people in his "pod" tested positive. I don't like that at all. I don't get to ask a girl out, have her say yes, and then go out and proclaim that every single girl I would ask out would say yes.
 
SoufOaklin4Life said:
I hate to kinda defend smf here
But
His math is closer to the reality of the situation than the replies

thats a pathetically low amount of testing at wvu
Perhaps they are taking the Donald ostrich approach ?

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Protecting Health, Saving Lives—Millions at a Time
www.jhsph.edu www.jhsph.edu
Click to expand...

In the last 5 rounds, 140 out of 1,111 students have tested positive. That's 12.6% which is astronomically high. Considering its reputation as a party school, I guess that isnt surprising. Another notorious party school, IU-Bloomington has closed all of its frats and sororities due to a rise in cases.

One note on the WVU cases though, those numbers DO include sympotatic tests. Its not ALL asymptomatic tests. They don't break it out in their numbers. Even still, 12.6% is very high and I do believe that at this time, somewhere around 10% of WVU students have COVID.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
I know but when 4 straight rounds of asymptomatic COVID testing have a 10% or greater positivity rate, it seems likely that the entire student body COVID rate is around 10%.
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But the asymptomatic isn’t a random sample size either. You’re probably getting tested if you’re asymptomatic if you’ve been in close proximity to somebody you just found out was positive. So there would be a selection bias with those as well.
 
And 5% of that 10% are probably false positive. These PCR test are vastly over stating the positive rate.
 
cashisking884 said:
But the asymptomatic isn’t a random sample size either. You’re probably getting tested if you’re asymptomatic if you’ve been in close proximity to somebody you just found out was positive. So there would be a selection bias with those as well.
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No. The asymptomatic tests were students who WVU deems at a higher risk such as students living in dorms or athletes. They probably aren't asymptomatic testing students living off campus but I would doubt those students are partying any less.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
No. The asymptomatic tests were students who WVU deems at a higher risk such as students living in dorms or athletes. They probably aren't asymptomatic testing students living off campus but I would doubt those students are partying any less.
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Right. There’s a selection bias to it.
 
PittGuy00 said:
And 5% of that 10% are probably false positive. These PCR test are vastly over stating the positive rate.
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Incorrect. PCR specificity is virtually 100%. Therefore, very very few false positives. PCR sensitivity is what you are thinking about and it’s improving greatly since March. False negatives are the issue with RT-PCR testing (diagnostic testing) and also with Abbott Rapid ID (diagnostic test) and the newly emerging antigen testing.

The NFL had a significant number of false positives from PCR in a NJ lab because of contamination of the test samples. This made news. Now a majority of the country thinks that false positives are a common phenomenon with PCR diagnostic testing. It’s not....at all.

(Note: False positives ARE an issue with serology testing. This testing determines presence of antibody from Covid via blood test)
 
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WVUinColumbus said:
Incorrect. PCR specificity is virtually 100%. Therefore, very very few false positives. PCR sensitivity is what you are thinking about and it’s improving greatly since March. False negatives are the issue with RT-PCR testing (diagnostic testing) and also with Abbott Rapid ID (diagnostic test) and the newly emerging antigen testing.

The NFL had a significant number of false positives from PCR in a NJ lab because of contamination of the test samples. This made news. Now a majority of the country thinks that false positives are a common phenomenon with PCR diagnostic testing. It’s not....at all.

(Note: False positives ARE an issue with serology testing. This testing determines presence of antibody from Covid via blood test)
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Good clarification
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
I know but when 4 straight rounds of asymptomatic COVID testing have a 10% or greater positivity rate, it seems likely that the entire student body COVID rate is around 10%.
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Only if the tests were completely random.

If people were going in because they had exposure to a known positive (or in a higher risk form, etc) it’s likely that that is a higher number than the population.
 
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And of course, now WVU has gone 100% remote so the only reason to be on campus is to party. Their streak of >10% positives continues.
 
pitt-girl said:
How about we don't "assume" anything? Is that asking too much these days?
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When dealing with population sampling, assumptions are necessary (from a scientific standpoint). When generalising the results of a sample of a population, one is assuming that the sample is representative of the wider population. There is some inherent bias in this approach, as others have pointed out (were asymptomatics close contacts, etc--therefore a selection bias within the sample). The only way to know the actual population prevalence is to test the entire population (and that is not presently feasible).
 
N
Sean Miller Fan said:
And of course, now WVU has gone 100% remote so the only reason to be on campus is to party. Their streak of >10% positives continues.
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And they made CNN! Their Dean was on with Brooke Baldwin. No WVU fans saw it though as they were watching Fox News.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
And of course, now WVU has gone 100% remote so the only reason to be on campus is to party. Their streak of >10% positives continues.
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as does their (and most other colleges) streak of of no hospitalizations. helluva young folk pandemic is it not?...but thanks for those stats on healthy or slightly ill kids...
 
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upj87 said:
as does their (and most other colleges) streak of of no hospitalizations. helluva young folk pandemic is it not?...but thanks for those stats on healthy or slightly ill kids...
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Of course there are no hospitalizations. Why would there be? These are young, healthy people. However, some old people will become infected by them or their contacts and will die. But its worth it if they can party, I guess.
 
This is a good thng. They personally are not at serious risk. They may develop on-campus herd immunity and they won't be at home infecting grandma and grandpa.
 
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Sean Miller Fan said:
Of course there are no hospitalizations. Why would there be? These are young, healthy people. However, some old people will become infected by them or their contacts and will die. But its worth it if they can party, I guess.
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hahaha.....newsflash...old people die every day..... not sure what they are doing milling about campus but they should know better...

so, just to get this straight...young healthy people should not live their lives because they might infect old folks (who should stay the hell away from them) at college...got it...

What if their were a test for asymptomatic flu? Would you cancel classes because 20% of your student body tested positive (which they probably would year after year)?
 
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upj87 said:
hahaha.....newsflash...old people die every day..... not sure what they are doing milling about campus but they should know better...

so, just to get this straight...young healthy people should not live their lives because they might infect old folks (who should stay the hell away from them) at college...got it...

What if their were a test for asymptomatic flu? Would you cancel classes because 20% of your student body tested positive (which they probably would year after year)?
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There's a vaccine for the flu.

No, old people aren't waltzing around the WVU campus but those kids go out into the community as well. For example, the can infect a waitress who infects and kills an old person somewhere. I don't know what's so hard to understand. For every so many college kids who get COVID, some old person somewhere will die as the result.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
There's a vaccine for the flu.

No, old people aren't waltzing around the WVU campus but those kids go out into the community as well. For example, the can infect a waitress who infects and kills an old person somewhere. I don't know what's so hard to understand. For every so many college kids who get COVID, some old person somewhere will die as the result.
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I've come to realize that old people don't care about Covid. Outside of college kids, they're a close second age group who doesn't worry about it. And most shouldn't worry about it if they're a relatively healthy old person.
 
Gunga_Galunga said:
I've come to realize that old people don't care about Covid. Outside of college kids, they're a close second age group who doesn't worry about it. And most shouldn't worry about it if they're a relatively healthy old person.
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You know - based on my Mom's retirement community (which I believe is the largest in Allegheny County), I have to agree with you.
 
pitt-girl said:
You know - based on my Mom's retirement community (which I believe is the largest in Allegheny County), I have to agree with you.
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Im old and I don't worry about the virus.I play senior softball all over the country and by the number of teams playing 1000s of seniors share my thoughts.Lots of 70,75 and over 80 teams playing every weekend.If your healthy and stay in shape you'll be ok.Of course there are exceptions to the rule in all diseases.Guess what I'm the old guy in my family and I'm going down swinging.
 
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