RPI is the only thing that matters to the committee (well, maybe not the only thing, but they use it more than they will admit). As we know, polls are beyond meaningless and while RPI can still be skewed in December, its definitely better for us to be ranked 11 than 41.
This is a huge game at MSG. Most of us realized Davidson is a good A10 program who won the league last year and was picked near the top this year but this is a team that almost definitely will stay in the Top 50, potentially even Top 25 if they do really well in the A10 again. A win for Pitt will make it very difficult for us to NOT make the NCAA Tournament. In fact, I did that RPI Wizard, and with a win over Davidson, even if we went 18-11 (which would be 8-10 in the ACC), our RPI still projects at 47 which would mean we still would have a good shot at the NCAAT with 1 or 2 wins in DC. 9-9 would be a lock. But, more importantly, if we can have a real nice year, like 12-6, 11-7, we are looking at a 5 or 6 seed making the path to the Sweet 16 exponentially easier than an 8/9 seed.
This will have the feel of an NCAAT game because of the neutral court plus the fact they have a high-scoring guard. How many times have we been done in by a premier scorer? Well, Davidson's Jack Gibbs is one of the top scorers in the nation at 26 PPG, shooting 38% from 3. Their other 6'0 guard, Brian Sullivan is putting up Micah Mason-type numbers from behind the arc, shooting 46%, averaging 18 PPG. We may not see a better guard duo all year and they are going to put a ton of stress on our perimeter D. The key is to obviously limit their 3 point shooting but that's easier said than done. We did a great job on Duquesne but they are more helter-skelter. Davidson is much more disciplined and McKillop's offense will get them open looks, we just have to limit them.
I think Pitt is better but its tough to beat any team if they hit 12 or 13 3's and that is what Davidson is capable of. We'll see if our perimeter D is up to the challenge.
Pitt 82
Davidson 74
This is a huge game at MSG. Most of us realized Davidson is a good A10 program who won the league last year and was picked near the top this year but this is a team that almost definitely will stay in the Top 50, potentially even Top 25 if they do really well in the A10 again. A win for Pitt will make it very difficult for us to NOT make the NCAA Tournament. In fact, I did that RPI Wizard, and with a win over Davidson, even if we went 18-11 (which would be 8-10 in the ACC), our RPI still projects at 47 which would mean we still would have a good shot at the NCAAT with 1 or 2 wins in DC. 9-9 would be a lock. But, more importantly, if we can have a real nice year, like 12-6, 11-7, we are looking at a 5 or 6 seed making the path to the Sweet 16 exponentially easier than an 8/9 seed.
This will have the feel of an NCAAT game because of the neutral court plus the fact they have a high-scoring guard. How many times have we been done in by a premier scorer? Well, Davidson's Jack Gibbs is one of the top scorers in the nation at 26 PPG, shooting 38% from 3. Their other 6'0 guard, Brian Sullivan is putting up Micah Mason-type numbers from behind the arc, shooting 46%, averaging 18 PPG. We may not see a better guard duo all year and they are going to put a ton of stress on our perimeter D. The key is to obviously limit their 3 point shooting but that's easier said than done. We did a great job on Duquesne but they are more helter-skelter. Davidson is much more disciplined and McKillop's offense will get them open looks, we just have to limit them.
I think Pitt is better but its tough to beat any team if they hit 12 or 13 3's and that is what Davidson is capable of. We'll see if our perimeter D is up to the challenge.
Pitt 82
Davidson 74
