An early Pitt preview: 6-6

[TIGER-PAUL]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...anthers-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster

From the Whipple-led passing game, to the young running backs, to Weaver and Jones in the pass rush, to Jackson and company in the secondary, Pitt has about as much upside as it’s had under Narduzzi.

But having a high ceiling hasn’t been the issue in recent years — consistency has been. And at first glance, there’s no reason to assume that will be suddenly fixed.

Just a little bit of extra efficiency could go a long way, though. While Pitt is projected 6-6 and just 59th in S&P+, eight games are projected within a touchdown or less. That Miami, UCF, and Virginia come to Heinz Field puts those games within winning range, but games at Georgia Tech and Duke are extremely losable.

A Pitt that finds more consistency in the passing game and avoids too many front-seven injuries could make a run at eight or nine wins.

Of course, a Pitt that doesn’t could lose eight or nine.

 

[wbrpanther]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...anthers-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster

From the Whipple-led passing game, to the young running backs, to Weaver and Jones in the pass rush, to Jackson and company in the secondary, Pitt has about as much upside as it’s had under Narduzzi.

But having a high ceiling hasn’t been the issue in recent years — consistency has been. And at first glance, there’s no reason to assume that will be suddenly fixed.

Just a little bit of extra efficiency could go a long way, though. While Pitt is projected 6-6 and just 59th in S&P+, eight games are projected within a touchdown or less. That Miami, UCF, and Virginia come to Heinz Field puts those games within winning range, but games at Georgia Tech and Duke are extremely losable.

A Pitt that finds more consistency in the passing game and avoids too many front-seven injuries could make a run at eight or nine wins.

Of course, a Pitt that doesn’t could lose eight or nine.

So who is this Bill Connelly and why does his opinion matter?

My forecast, which doesn't matter ether, is 10 wins in 13 games.

 

[anon_vmuicqnzlyp3u]

Oh boy, this will get the Narduzzi fan club fired up. That was actually a pretty good analysis and I feel pretty spot on. We won't be favored in too many games to start out

 

[Seneca_Valley]

6-6 sounds right to me. Too many ifs have to happen to get us on the other side of 7 wins.

 

[ratking17]

I will continue to defend narduzzi as I believe program stability was a much needed asset. That said this year is huge. Year 5 needs to be better than year 4. 8 wins minimum

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

If we beat UVA on labor day, we go no worse than 9-3. If we lose, we do no better than 6-6..

very in depth analysis based on irrelevant numbers from the past. this article, like any prediction on here, is a complete coin flip. I'd hold little if any value in an article predicting us to win 11 games as I do on one winning 6.. the coastal this year, like most years, is up for grabs..

Here is my prediction. all these acc coastal games will be close, the champ will have at least 2 and possibly 3 conference losses. the winner will be the one that eaks out the most nailbiters and the bottom dweller will be a program that will look back at a few key plays and say "if only we did this, we'd be champs" all off season.

 

[pittdan77]

I will continue to defend narduzzi as I believe program stability was a much needed asset. That said this year is huge. Year 5 needs to be better than year 4. 8 wins minimum

I think 8 wins is very doable if the passing game improves enough to sustain drives against teams that can slow down the run. Of course this assumes the defense doesn't go backwards but I don't see a reason why it would.

 

[ratking17]

I think 8 wins is very doable if the passing game improves enough to sustain drives against teams that can slow down the run. Of course this assumes the defense doesn't go backwards but I don't see a reason why it would.

In theory this should be our best defense under narduzzi correct? The secondary should be solid. I have been one to defend narduzzi and his schemes but if we see a defense that reminds us of 2016, then....???

 

[Cap pitt]

10 - 4 with coastal and a bowl win

 

[Black_Man_Panther]

I dunno... if anything Pitt did show some consistency last year. They beat the mediocre (sans Miami) and got crushed by the good teams (sans ND). And lost the bowl game (annual event).

 

[DiehardPanther]

Let’s be honest. I would guess our average record over the past 10 years is right around .500. The writer is playing it safe. Nothing earth shattering. We need to win 7 or more games next year. Otherwise the natives are going to get restless.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

We need to win 7 minimum or there is no progress under Narduzzi. But I don't think this year is the year we do that. 6-6 seems about right and even a bit optimistic, but I'm seeing closer to 5-7. There will be louder grumblings after this season about Narduzzi.

 

[88Pitt88]

We need to win 7 minimum or there is no progress under Narduzzi. But I don't think this year is the year we do that. 6-6 seems about right and even a bit optimistic, but I'm seeing closer to 5-7. There will be louder grumblings after this season about Narduzzi.

Wow! 5 wins with this year's schedule is a slap in the face of Narduzzi and the program. While I don't see Pat coming out like last year and saying we will play in the ACC championship, I do think we will be right there again and if the defense improves to where I think it can, we could do better than last season. I am looking for Paris Ford to make an impact this year as well, plus I think Whipple will have our offense playing a two dimensional game. I am betting against the team taking a step back this year. I think we win 8 regular season games and I give us a 50/50 chance to battle Clemson again in the ACC title game.

 

[oldpanther]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...anthers-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster

From the Whipple-led passing game, to the young running backs, to Weaver and Jones in the pass rush, to Jackson and company in the secondary, Pitt has about as much upside as it’s had under Narduzzi.

But having a high ceiling hasn’t been the issue in recent years — consistency has been. And at first glance, there’s no reason to assume that will be suddenly fixed.

Just a little bit of extra efficiency could go a long way, though. While Pitt is projected 6-6 and just 59th in S&P+, eight games are projected within a touchdown or less. That Miami, UCF, and Virginia come to Heinz Field puts those games within winning range, but games at Georgia Tech and Duke are extremely losable.

A Pitt that finds more consistency in the passing game and avoids too many front-seven injuries could make a run at eight or nine wins.

Of course, a Pitt that doesn’t could lose eight or nine.

Street and Smith magazine predicting a 4th place finish behind Virginia, Miami and Virginia Tech. Bowl, Military. Most likely will always be below the 8 or 9 win total until HCPN recruits better and higher rated players.

 

[sappycrease]

In theory this should be our best defense under narduzzi correct? The secondary should be solid. I have been one to defend narduzzi and his schemes but if we see a defense that reminds us of 2016, then....???

That's what is worrisome for me. Is it going to be better? Our front 7 is a huge question mark. "So the strengths get weaker, the weaknesses get stronger, and the Panthers become even blurrier than normal."

This quote is actually quite troubling in regard to Narduzzi:

"Pitt continues to rack up achievements while watching its foundation crumble. Four years in, I can’t even give a decent answer to the question, “Is Narduzzi doing a good job?” I can’t really tell what is in store."

 

[McKee Place]

5-7 is most likely with the QB we have. You would hope a new OC helps him... but it might not at all. It could actually mess him up worse, at least to start.

 

[anon_vmuicqnzlyp3u]

That's what is worrisome for me. Is it going to be better? Our front 7 is a huge question mark. "So the strengths get weaker, the weaknesses get stronger, and the Panthers become even blurrier than normal."

This quote is actually quite troubling in regard to Narduzzi:

"Pitt continues to rack up achievements while watching its foundation crumble. Four years in, I can’t even give a decent answer to the question, “Is Narduzzi doing a good job?” I can’t really tell what is in store."

I am still concerned about our Linebacker play

 

[joeydavid]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...anthers-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster

From the Whipple-led passing game, to the young running backs, to Weaver and Jones in the pass rush, to Jackson and company in the secondary, Pitt has about as much upside as it’s had under Narduzzi.

But having a high ceiling hasn’t been the issue in recent years — consistency has been. And at first glance, there’s no reason to assume that will be suddenly fixed.

Just a little bit of extra efficiency could go a long way, though. While Pitt is projected 6-6 and just 59th in S&P+, eight games are projected within a touchdown or less. That Miami, UCF, and Virginia come to Heinz Field puts those games within winning range, but games at Georgia Tech and Duke are extremely losable.

A Pitt that finds more consistency in the passing game and avoids too many front-seven injuries could make a run at eight or nine wins.

Of course, a Pitt that doesn’t could lose eight or nine.

2-2 OOC
6-2 ACC
8-4 Overall

 

[HailToPitt1985]

5-7 is most likely with the QB we have. You would hope a new OC helps him... but it might not at all. It could actually mess him up worse, at least to start.

I agree. I can't see this team, regardless of OC, winning more than 5 games this year with the QB we have. And that may even be optimistic.

 

[Mr. Monaca]

I thought the analysis was fairly spot-on. Anything is possible with this program at this point. They could definitely win 8 games but no one in the country (outside of Pitt fans) would be surprised if lost 8 games.

Personally, I'm looking at 7 or 8 wins. Much of the season depends on an unproven offensive line. If that unit can get it together we could win 8+ games. If they fail and make Pickett scramble for his life all season then I'd predict 6 wins.

 

[cashisking884]

Let’s be honest. I would guess our average record over the past 10 years is right around .500. The writer is playing it safe. Nothing earth shattering. We need to win 7 or more games next year. Otherwise the natives are going to get restless.

“Connelly” isn’t playing it safe. This isn’t his prediction. This is what the S&P+ algorithm projects. Connelly is just trying to explain why the model projects that record.
He’s very good at putting a narrative to the numbers. I’d say the best in the business.

 

[McKee Place]

I agree. I can't see this team, regardless of OC, winning more than 5 games this year with the QB we have. And that may even be optimistic.

I'm called "troll" and "contrarian" and "negative" for saying such things. But truly, I feel im the optimistic one. I'm optimistic that one or more of our other QBs have some legit talent, and should be given an honest shot especially with this new OC. But all I've seen and read is that it's a fait accompli with Pickett and truly the only reason i can see is because Narduzzi loves the kid's gung ho personality.

And if it were Dabo or Saban going with the gut, in spite of what was seen on the field, then I'd happily acquiesce. But Duz ain't those guys. So blind devotion to a QB who was frankly putrid in all the tougher games (and many of the easy ones) last year, indicating no competition for a job at all despite that fact and despite a new OC, forces me to come to a "pessimistic" estimate of our record.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

I'm called "troll" and "contrarian" and "negative" for saying such things. But truly, I feel im the optimistic one. I'm optimistic that one or more of our other QBs have some legit talent, and should be given an honest shot especially with this new OC. But all I've seen and read is that it's a fait accompli with Pickett and truly the only reason i can see is because Narduzzi loves the kid's gung ho personality.

And if it were Dabo or Saban going with the gut, in spite of what was seen on the field, then I'd happily acquiesce. But Duz ain't those guys. So blind devotion to a QB who was frankly putrid in all the tougher games (and many of the easy ones) last year, indicating no competition for a job at all despite that fact and despite a new OC, forces me to come to a "pessimistic" estimate of our record.

I know what you're saying. But what people on here say about you is meaningless. If they can't face facts, that's on them.

Even if one of the younger QB's ended up getting the job, which is highly unlikely with this coach, it would take him 4 or 5 games to get some footing and make a difference. They're just kids. By the time that happens, we've already lost 4 games.

 

[CJsE]

Well clearly this guy knows nothing, he gave Narduzzi a 57% chance of beating UNC..../s kinda

His arguments seem pretty spot on and I have zero opinion on the win prediction. There are so many questions this year.

Pitt lost 75% of its rushing production and 57% of its offensive production this year. On top of that Pitt lost 4 starting linemen and has a new Offensive Coordinator. Our returning quarterback completed 11 passes or fewer in 7 games last season and only 33% of his passes in his final 2 games. How anyone can try and make a guess about our offense is beyond me.

But unless things go extremely bad, I have to think that stability will trump possibility. I also just don't see any slam dunk hires out there that Pitt could land, but I didn't see the Capel hire until someone told me it was happening. Who would Pitt go after as a reasonable replacement? Tony Elliot, Mike Yurchich, Matt Campbell, Luke Fickell?

 

[thebadby2]

10 - 4 with coastal and a bowl win

I have a feeling a lot of you are going to be very disappointed.

 

[PittFathead87]

Narduzzi has won 8, 8, 3 and 7 right? Give me another 8 for this year.

 

[ratking17]

8, 8, 5, 7

 

[Panther_in_Kentucky]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...anthers-football-2019-preview-schedule-roster

From the Whipple-led passing game, to the young running backs, to Weaver and Jones in the pass rush, to Jackson and company in the secondary, Pitt has about as much upside as it’s had under Narduzzi.

But having a high ceiling hasn’t been the issue in recent years — consistency has been. And at first glance, there’s no reason to assume that will be suddenly fixed.

Just a little bit of extra efficiency could go a long way, though. While Pitt is projected 6-6 and just 59th in S&P+, eight games are projected within a touchdown or less. That Miami, UCF, and Virginia come to Heinz Field puts those games within winning range, but games at Georgia Tech and Duke are extremely losable.

A Pitt that finds more consistency in the passing game and avoids too many front-seven injuries could make a run at eight or nine wins.

Of course, a Pitt that doesn’t could lose eight or nine.

If Pitt doesn't win 7 regular season games in 2019 Narduzzi needs to go. This is ridiculous. These are his players and his staff. Time to shut up and win.

 

[BFo8]

If Pitt doesn't win 7 regular season games in 2019 Narduzzi needs to go. This is ridiculous. These are his players and his staff. Time to shut up and win.

No going to happen unless the season is a total trainwreck with little hope moving forward.

Agree though that he could use 7 wins and a bowl win. A 5-7 season would put Narduzzi at 33-31 after 5 years, which is sufficiently mediocre enough that many people might begin to believe that a new coach would do better.

 

[Usuallyunusual]

We need to win 7 minimum or there is no progress under Narduzzi. But I don't think this year is the year we do that. 6-6 seems about right and even a bit optimistic, but I'm seeing closer to 5-7. There will be louder grumblings after this season about Narduzzi.

We need to win 7 minimum or there is no progress under Narduzzi. But I don't think this year is the year we do that. 6-6 seems about right and even a bit optimistic, but I'm seeing closer to 5-7. There will be louder grumblings after this season about Narduzzi.

Do you believe Narduzzi should have been fired this past off season since you predict this outcome? I thought the addition of Whipple and Beatty addressed the most obvious issues with the team last year. What do you think will be the team's biggest deficiencies this year?

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

The defense will be fine. It's the best DL Narduzzi has fielded, the secondary is solid and could be really good. There are some guys to work with at LB. Reynolds looks like a player, Brightwell has flashed at times, and there are some young guys who will be given a chance. Pine looks like a backup DE to me moving forward

The offense is a concern with the question mark at OL. I think Whipple will help, and I'd love to see him go with a quick passing game to help the OL and Pickett. We always seem to replace RBs and I think they'll be good at WR.

They won 7 games with Watson as OC. Not reason to believe they can't match that or win one more.

I agree with Zelda that the opener against UVA is huge.

 

[pbrad]

Since I don't know how much kids become better or worse over an off season, and how much coaches have an effect on certain players, I don't make predictions until I see 1 or 2 games.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Since I don't know how much kids become better or worse over an off season, and how much coaches have an effect on certain players, I don't make predictions until I see 1 or 2 games.

where is the fun in that??

But yeah, we will know sooo much more after the UVA game. That's why I love the early test. nothing more frustrating than waiting all off season to see pitt, going to opener, watch them scrimmage an FCS team and still wonder what we have...

when we beat UVA on labor day, this board will be sky high.. I said When, not if.

 

[9nationalchampionships]

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

where is the fun in that??

But yeah, we will know sooo much more after the UVA game. That's why I love the early test. nothing more frustrating than waiting all off season to see pitt, going to opener, watch them scrimmage an FCS team and still wonder what we have...

when we beat UVA on labor day, this board will be sky high.. I said When, not if.

 

[pittdan77]

No going to happen unless the season is a total trainwreck with little hope moving forward.

Agree though that he could use 7 wins and a bowl win. A 5-7 season would put Narduzzi at 33-31 after 5 years, which is sufficiently mediocre enough that many people might begin to believe that a new coach would do better.

With 7 wins, you'd have to start to question why the team isn't showing better on the field this far in. Even 8 wins with this schedule feels kind of "meh". The conversation will inevitably turn to how patient people should be. They did win the division last season but they did it in the most mediocre way possible. So what do you do?

The last coach Pitt ran out for performance was Wanny. Benchmark what Narduzzi is doing against that. I think another question is, how much worse could things get if you make a change? I don't think you'll see the same mistakes that were made since Wanny with coaching hires (I'm saying that because it seems like we have an AD that actually wants to win) so you probably bottom out at 5-7 at worst. And money will be a factor. If you're not going to nose dive, there isn't a rush to eat a buyout. It's not a simple answer.

To me, Heather took a chance and decided to fix a lot of other things while allowing the program to find some stability. So she gave Narduzzi that extension. It was the right move. But I think that there will be a serious look at where Narduzzi's ceiling is at as he inches closer to the end of his deal because money won't be as big a factor. You're probably looking at two more years. At least.

 

[ratking17]

With 7 wins, you'd have to start to question why the team isn't showing better on the field this far in. Even 8 wins with this schedule feels kind of "meh". The conversation will inevitably turn to how patient people should be. They did win the division last season but they did it in the most mediocre way possible. So what do you do?

The last coach Pitt ran out for performance was Wanny. Benchmark what Narduzzi is doing against that. I think another question is, how much worse could things get if you make a change? I don't think you'll see the same mistakes that were made since Wanny with coaching hires (I'm saying that because it seems like we have an AD that actually wants to win) so you probably bottom out at 5-7 at worst. And money will be a factor. If you're not going to nose dive, there isn't a rush to eat a buyout. It's not a simple answer.

To me, Heather took a chance and decided to fix a lot of other things while allowing the program to find some stability. So she gave Narduzzi that extension. It was the right move. But I think that there will be a serious look at where Narduzzi's ceiling is at as he inches closer to the end of his deal because money won't be as big a factor. You're probably looking at two more years. At least.

Agree with your statement. Only an absolute nosedive would be an issue here

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

With 7 wins, you'd have to start to question why the team isn't showing better on the field this far in. Even 8 wins with this schedule feels kind of "meh". The conversation will inevitably turn to how patient people should be. They did win the division last season but they did it in the most mediocre way possible. So what do you do?

The last coach Pitt ran out for performance was Wanny. Benchmark what Narduzzi is doing against that. I think another question is, how much worse could things get if you make a change? I don't think you'll see the same mistakes that were made since Wanny with coaching hires (I'm saying that because it seems like we have an AD that actually wants to win) so you probably bottom out at 5-7 at worst. And money will be a factor. If you're not going to nose dive, there isn't a rush to eat a buyout. It's not a simple answer.

To me, Heather took a chance and decided to fix a lot of other things while allowing the program to find some stability. So she gave Narduzzi that extension. It was the right move. But I think that there will be a serious look at where Narduzzi's ceiling is at as he inches closer to the end of his deal because money won't be as big a factor. You're probably looking at two more years. At least.

we win 8 games, I don't think anyone should be "meh." 8-4 is pretty respectable record in P5 with 2 respectable OOC opponents. i'd be happy, not ecstatic but happy with 8-4.. 6-2 in conference, 2-2 in OOC most likely gets us into Charlotte..

7-5, im in the "meh" group.

 

[ratking17]

we win 8 games, I don't think anyone should be "meh." 8-4 is pretty respectable record in P5 with 2 respectable OOC opponents. i'd be happy, not ecstatic but happy with 8-4.. 6-2 in conference, 2-2 in OOC most likely gets us into Charlotte..

7-5, im in the "meh" group.

Agree as well here.

 

[NTOP]

It all depends on the QB.

 

[9nationalchampionships]

We go as far as the OL goes!