This is the biggest question mark for the upcoming season, followed by QB and WRs. If the OL play isn’t at least solid, nothing else matters. Consistently good OL play is a tough thing to develop. This year’s line on paper is lesser than last year’s, and last year’s wasn’t consistently sound. That’s why I’m not overly optimistic about this season.
An early Pitt preview: 6-6
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8-4 means you’re probably losing to a G5 at home and two conference games that are very winnable. Not a failure and it’s not embarrassing. But it’s not something to get excited about.
6-2 in conference also means you beat some very comparable teams and also won some games that we were underdogs in. 6-2 gets us the coastal crown no matter how you slice it.
2-2 OOC is meh, I agree. More worried about what we do in acc, that’s what matters most.
Yep. I’d sign up for that. Maybe we throw for double digit yards against Clemson this time.
6-6 is just about every year, winning a division and going 7-7 felt like a championship, until losing the last two games.
Actually new coach would probably continue the 6-6 tradition. Since the 9-4, 10-3, 8-5 Wanny stretch it's been 7-6, 6-7 every year but the two 8-5s and a 5-7.
I'm really curious to hear more from those who are predicting 9 or 10 wins. What's your rationale for believing we'll get to that many wins?
Personally, I'll predict either 6-6 or 7-5. I base my predictions on the following:
1. We lost 4 out of 5 starters on an Oline that wasn't all that good to begin with.
2. Our QB play last year was bad and I did not see significant improvement throughout the year.
3. We lost both of our starting 1,000 yard RB's. The returning guys are completely unknown.
4. We lost our most reliable possession receiver on a corp that was mediocre at best.
5. Another year starting with a new offensive coordinator and system.
6. Our TE's or lack thereof - nuff said.
7. Lost all three starting LB's from a unit that gave up a lot of points.
8. Our schedule is certainly not easy and many of the teams we faced should be better this year.
9. History - if we've learned nothing else about Pitt football in the past 20 years it's simply this: we always seem to find a way to underachieve.
Having said all that, there are some reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Our Dline should be improved as well as our secondary. We got rid of a horrible O coordinator so the new guy is at least potentially better.
IMO, there are WAAAAY too many question marks to think we'll win 9 or 10 games and our history says we won't.
So maybe someone would care to explain how they see our current situation and predict 10 wins (wishful thinking and hope will not be counted as sound arguments).
BTW - I sincerely hope that I'm wrong and you 10 win guys are right.
Personally, I'll predict either 6-6 or 7-5. I base my predictions on the following:
1. We lost 4 out of 5 starters on an Oline that wasn't all that good to begin with.
2. Our QB play last year was bad and I did not see significant improvement throughout the year.
3. We lost both of our starting 1,000 yard RB's. The returning guys are completely unknown.
4. We lost our most reliable possession receiver on a corp that was mediocre at best.
5. Another year starting with a new offensive coordinator and system.
6. Our TE's or lack thereof - nuff said.
7. Lost all three starting LB's from a unit that gave up a lot of points.
8. Our schedule is certainly not easy and many of the teams we faced should be better this year.
9. History - if we've learned nothing else about Pitt football in the past 20 years it's simply this: we always seem to find a way to underachieve.
Having said all that, there are some reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Our Dline should be improved as well as our secondary. We got rid of a horrible O coordinator so the new guy is at least potentially better.
IMO, there are WAAAAY too many question marks to think we'll win 9 or 10 games and our history says we won't.
So maybe someone would care to explain how they see our current situation and predict 10 wins (wishful thinking and hope will not be counted as sound arguments).
BTW - I sincerely hope that I'm wrong and you 10 win guys are right.
at 5.5 for the over/under win total for Pitt, I can't wait for the sportsbooks to get running in NY (over +100,under -120)
Definitely betting the over on this
E-Z $$$$
Definitely betting the over on this
E-Z $$$$
I bet the over last year on Pitt and made quite a nice profit. If the books go 5.5 again, I would double down from last year on the over. That said my guess is Vegas goes 6.5 or 7 flat and makes it a little more tricky
I agree. I would put the money on Pitt if Vegas puts their win total at 5.5 for the season.
He may not be a great recruiter, and he may not be the best game-day tactician, but the one thing about Narduzzi is that his teams don't quit on him. So even if they disappoint early in the season I don't think they'll ever stop giving effort and that alone will translate into a win or two.
I'm here!
This is what PITT football needs to jump start the program!
If we go 6-6, lose a bowl game, PITT football is toast, sell the helmets and uni's and build tennis courts.
If we go 7-5, win a bowl game PITT football maybe has a future.
8-4 Target season with bowl game win.
If we go 9-3 the bowl game is a plus and PITT football has established itself.
Heather this isn't the MAC Conference, scheduling matters!
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I was really hoping they would have been the opener for the season!
For that exact reason you stated
Winning 8 this season given the massive questions with the offense (posted more effectively by others above) would be anything but meh.
Unfortunately, as mentioned above, I don't see it at all. 4-8 is actually far more possible.
Which is why somehow FLIPPING that and managing 8 WINS somehow would be amazing. Something to applaud for sure. Given it's us, where every silver lining comes with a black cloud, it would also likely get Duz snapped right outta here by a bigger program, at long last. But i'm willing to risk that.
Unfortunately, as mentioned above, I don't see it at all. 4-8 is actually far more possible.
Which is why somehow FLIPPING that and managing 8 WINS somehow would be amazing. Something to applaud for sure. Given it's us, where every silver lining comes with a black cloud, it would also likely get Duz snapped right outta here by a bigger program, at long last. But i'm willing to risk that.
I’ll say zero chance Pitt would open up at anything close to 7. Admittedly I’m way behind on my college football handicapping for this season but I’d expect Pitt’s total to open up at 6, probably slightly juiced to the under.
Not that it matters, but last year the Southpoint was the first to post these numbers and their sportsbook director is a Pittsburgh native and a big PSU fan.
Record aside, Narduzzi needs to field a *quality* team this year.
Record is going to fluctuate some years based on schedule (easy to hard) and luck (good to bad). But produce a quality team year to year, and that will even out and you’ll finish with the record over a time span about where the S&P+ (which measures the objective quality of the team) says you should finish.
As Connelly points out though, we’ve gone from Top 25ish quality in 2016 to teams that really shouldn’t have that great of a record based on the product they put on the field.
In year 5, it’s time for Narduzzi to produce a legit level of play from his team. And then carry that forward.
Record is going to fluctuate some years based on schedule (easy to hard) and luck (good to bad). But produce a quality team year to year, and that will even out and you’ll finish with the record over a time span about where the S&P+ (which measures the objective quality of the team) says you should finish.
As Connelly points out though, we’ve gone from Top 25ish quality in 2016 to teams that really shouldn’t have that great of a record based on the product they put on the field.
In year 5, it’s time for Narduzzi to produce a legit level of play from his team. And then carry that forward.
I agree and if you ask me the tackles in particular have to be alot better in pass protection Bookser was atrocious at tackle although I appreciate his flexibility he was clearly a better guard and Millin was only slightly better. Warren Drake Houy have to develop so we can stop relying on grad transfers.
Below is Athlon’s complete 2019 preseason Top 25 rankings.
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- LSU
- Florida
- Notre Dame
- Texas A&M
- Texas
- Washington
- Utah
- Penn State
- Oregon
- Michigan State
- Nebraska
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Auburn
- Syracuse
- UCF
- Missouri
- Iowa State
- Virginia
I agree with a lot of your points. Our OL was terrible in pass protection last year, now we are replacing four with four guys who were behind them and going to a more pass-oriented offense. It doesn't seem to be playing to your strengths. Maybe those linemen improve. Maybe Whipple finds ways to slow the pass rush with screens, draws and getting the ball out faster. But I'm not sure I see 9 or 10 wins.
This is honestly one of the most mind-boggling preseason lists I've seen so far.
Michigan at 4? They lost their whole defense and starting RB on Offense.
MSU? Just guessing they'll be better than 7-5 this year?
Wisky? They were a joke last year and lost their OLine.
Nebraska? Seriously?
Iowa? They lost all their major production.
I guess it just comes down the BIG being completely overrated again.
And, who is UVA QB? Same kid from last year? He was god-awful. UVA at 25 is laughable, at least we'll get a top-25 win right out of the gate.
Perkins was 3rd in the ACC in total offense. The kid was top 10 in the conference in rushing with over 900 yards. Pitt kept him in check with a tremendous pass rush and by controlling the ball thanks to Hall. That UVA game is winnable, and I question them being in the top 25, but it isn't for lack of talent at QB.
Just a guess but old head, B1G fans must be their target audience for the printed version of their magazines. Amazingly, they still sell a ton of those.
I agree with you 100%. The o-line is the answer . Pass protection must improve and run blocking stay relentless. Everything else will fall in place.
9 losses possible?? We havent done that since the Majors II era..
Back to the Future in 2019??
They should be coming out in the next few weeks, I think last year was around mid-June.
I don't understand the optimism here when the best predictions have Pitt going 6-6 and needing to be BC to achieve 6-6. What is amazing is the latitude given Narduzzi. He hasn't won a bowl game, finished in the top 25, beaten NC. My optimism is eradicated when I watch reruns of the Pitt Penn State shit show from 2018. I hope this is the magic year Narduzzi gets it all together, but the odds are closer to a losing season than a breakout one.
Since 2000, we’ve had three seasons in which we won 5 games. That was the lowest win total. 10 wins was the most. If Vegas sets the win total at 5.5, then based on probability you take the over.
There's always a stupid amount of optimism here. Narduzzi's job is safe for a couple more years so long as he doesn't completely go off the rails. The program is enjoying a little stability and it would be too expensive to just cut him loose until 2021.
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