Any good sites that do bracket Predictions?

[Fredact]

I'm not talking about the Joe Lunardi/Jerry Palm- type of "if the tournament started today" crap, but actual predictions of who they think will get into the tournament when all is said and done.

I know that Team Rankings does it, but frankly they've not been particularly accurate with it. (Or maybe I just don't like their prediction that Pitt has just a 7% chance of making it).

Are there others out there that anyone is aware of?

 

[Pitt_MBA]

I'm not talking about the Joe Lunardi/Jerry Palm- type of "if the tournament started today" crap, but actual predictions of who they think will get into the tournament when all is said and done.

I know that Team Rankings does it, but frankly they've not been particularly accurate with it. (Or maybe I just don't like their prediction that Pitt has just a 7% chance of making it).

Are there others out there that anyone is aware of?

Bracket Matrix

 

[Gep Dawg]

It feels like the deck is always stacked against the ACC. In football it’s all about the blue bloods. All eyes tests and big names that matter. In basketball where that would help it’s been changed to true metrics and who Isn’t afraid to go prove themselves on the road. I don’t understand how the ACC has allowed itself to be shut out by the other 3 big conferences

 

[MorningCoffee13]

Bracket matrix is good but it won’t say what Pitt’s chances are. They will only be listed if others identify them in a bracket.

 

[GaryMcgheeForThree]

You know what’s wild?

Bracketmatrix polls 102 different websites. And collectively they only have 6 different at-large teams from one another.

What’s the point of polling that many users if they all say nearly the exact same thing? It’s redundant.

We need more people predicting the actual tournament field, versus putting together the exact same list as everyone else.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I'm not talking about the Joe Lunardi/Jerry Palm- type of "if the tournament started today" crap, but actual predictions of who they think will get into the tournament when all is said and done.

I know that Team Rankings does it, but frankly they've not been particularly accurate with it. (Or maybe I just don't like their prediction that Pitt has just a 7% chance of making it).

Are there others out there that anyone is aware of?

The 7% probably isnt far off because the NCAAT is going to require 5-1. We are road underdogs in 2 games. Will be slight favorites at BC. VT, NC St, and FSU arent walks in the park. So what are the chances we go 5-1? 7% may be too low. But I'd say 15%

 

[Fredact]

The 7% probably isnt far off because the NCAAT is going to require 5-1. We are road underdogs in 2 games. Will be slight favorites at BC. VT, NC St, and FSU arent walks in the park. So what are the chances we go 5-1? 7% may be too low. But I'd say 15%

You mean 6-2. As the ACCT needs to be considered big we are truly doing a prediction.

 

[Fredact]

Bracket Matrix

Bracket matrix is still the “if the playoffs started today” sillinesss.

I remember late in an NFL season sites were showing those “if the playoffs started today” things and it had 2 teams in that were going to play each other knocking one out and definitely putting a third team in. That’s why I don’t pay attention to the bracketologists particularly early in the season.

 

[PittMed]

I imagine soon we won’t deal with all the person pundits out there. We soon will be watching the AI models predict and generate the brackets.

If truly this is all objective (it’s not) then it won’t be long before an AI approach to all of this may do it all for us.

If there are concerns about an AI approach then the biases of the committee members are revealed, IMHO

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You mean 6-2. As the ACCT needs to be considered big we are truly doing a prediction.

If we go 5-1, we get the double bye, so losing the 4/5 game doesn't knock us out, I dont think. If we go 4-2, we have to win that 5/12 or 6/11 game for sure then probably have to beat the 3 or 4 seed in the quarters.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Are there others out there that anyone is aware of?

Bart Torvik's site does what you are asking. He has Pitt right now as the fourth team out, with a 39.2% chance to get a bid.

You can also go in and add any future result and see how winning or losing that game will affect a team's chances. For example, if we beat Wake on Tuesday we would move up to the first team out with a 58.9% chance to get in, whereas if we lose we drop to the 6th team out with a 22.5% chance.

Of course unless you are putting in the results for all the games for all the teams, those numbers are in the vacuum of just that one particular game. So the actual numbers after a full night of games are played will be a little different.

Here is a link to the Pitt page that you can tinker around with

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

BTW, if we win out (regular season only) he has us as a six seed.

 

[Fredact]

Bart Torvik's site does what you are asking. He has Pitt right now as the fourth team out, with a 39.2% chance to get a bid.

You can also go in and add any future result and see how winning or losing that game will affect a team's chances. For example, if we beat Wake on Tuesday we would move up to the first team out with a 58.9% chance to get in, whereas if we lose we drop to the 6th team out with a 22.5% chance.

Of course unless you are putting in the results for all the games for all the teams, those numbers are in the vacuum of just that one particular game. So the actual numbers after a full night of games are played will be a little different.

Here is a link to the Pitt page that you can tinker around with

Yep. Thanks!

 

[whirlybird optio]

The 7% probably isnt far off because the NCAAT is going to require 5-1. We are road underdogs in 2 games. Will be slight favorites at BC. VT, NC St, and FSU arent walks in the park. So what are the chances we go 5-1? 7% may be too low. But I'd say 15%

Team Rankings was garbage last year, garbage again this year. Torvik at like high 30% seems more accurate. 4-2 should get us to Dayton along with a win in the ACCT.

4-2 almost certainly keeps us in the top 40 of the BPI, where, if you are too 40, your odds of making the field are 90%+. Net ranking would be good. Road record superior to other bubble teams…

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Team Rankings was garbage last year, garbage again this year.

I just looked at it for the first time in a long time, and yeah, it's ridiculous. If we get to 23 wins, which would mean, for example, 5-1 in the regular season and then winning a game in the ACC tournament it says we would only have a 7.3% chance to make the tournament. That's absurd.

Even sillier, if we get to 24 wins, so, say, sweep the rest of the regular season, win an ACC quarterfinal and then lose in the semifinal, most likely to either Duke or Carolina, we would have a 48.3% chance to make the tournament. So a better chance to miss it than to make it.

I will absolutely guarantee that if we sweep these last six and win an ACC quarterfinal before losing, not only will we be in, we won't be anywhere close to the bubble.