AP Top 25 poll

[Dointhatrag]

No shockers here just outlining the mountain to climb if you aren't in the SEC or Big10.

Top 10
SEC 4
B10 4
ACC 1
IND 1

Top 15
SEC 7
B10 4
ACC 2
IND 1
P12 1

Top 25
SEC 9
B10 6
ACC 4
IND 1
P12 5

ACC with 7 in top 29.

Team
1 Georgia(46) SEC
2 Ohio State(15) B10
3 Oregon(1) B10
4 Texas SEC
5 Alabama SEC
6 Ole Miss SEC
7 Notre Dame IND
8 Penn State B10
9 Michigan B10
10 Florida State ACC
11 Missouri SEC
12 Utah L12
13 LSU SEC
14 Clemson ACC
15 Tennessee SEC
16 Oklahoma SEC
17 Oklahoma State L12
18 Kansas State L12
19 Miami ACC
20 Texas A&M SEC
21 Arizona L12
22 Kansas L12
23 USC B10
24 NC State ACC
25 Iowa B10

Others receiving votes: Louisville 111, Virginia Tech 77, Boise State 47, SMU 33, Iowa State 33, Liberty 32, Washington 23, West Virginia 17, Memphis 16, Nebraska 16, Wisconsin 15, UTSA 6, Tulane 5, Appalachian State 4, Kentucky 3, Auburn 2, Colorado 1

​

 

[Dointhatrag]

I hate having to root for Clemson and FSU. Its a double edged sword. If they do well it helps the ACC but makes them more attractive for poaching.

 

[ratking17]

Jerry voted for Colorado just to mess with Duzz

 

[HailtoPitt]

I see PSU got their annual pre season top 10... until the lost to Michigan and OSU... and then they will beat crap teams and move back up/. Nice gig.

 

[Pitt2009]

I see PSU got their annual pre season top 10... until the lost to Michigan and OSU... and then they will beat crap teams and move back up/. Nice gig.

PSU’s schedule is extremely soft this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go 10-2 and make the CFP. However, there’s a clear separation between the elite 6ish teams of college football and the next tier with Penn State.

 

[cruzer]

I'd be happy with starting our climb by at least putting ourselves in a position to get one stinkin' vote in the "others receiving votes" category. App freakin State got 4 votes for heavens sake. 9 years in and we are irrelevant. I guess that's what $6M a year buys you these days. But hey, we've got stability.....which is nice.

 

[LivinWell]

No doubt, more often then not it seems Pitt gets no pre season votes.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

No doubt, more often then not it seems Pitt gets no pre season votes.

We got votes in the preseason last year. How'd that work out for us?

 

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

Look how far we have come?

 

[DORT]

I'd be happy with starting our climb by at least putting ourselves in a position to get one stinkin' vote in the "others receiving votes" category. App freakin State got 4 votes for heavens sake. 9 years in and we are irrelevant. I guess that's what $6M a year buys you these days. But hey, we've got stability.....which is nice.

I totally agree with you but the sad reality is the majority of pantherlair members are only predicting 6-6 or 7-5. We’re not even close to sniffing the top 25 so yeah we are irrelevant 9 years in.

 

[thebadby2]

I see PSU got their annual pre season top 10... until the lost to Michigan and OSU... and then they will beat crap teams and move back up/. Nice gig.

Michigan is gonna drop off a cliff this year. They lost everything and everybody that matters from that natty team, starting with the head coach and a QB who went 27-1 as a starter.

 

[thebadby2]

I totally agree with you but the sad reality is the majority of pantherlair members are only predicting 6-6 or 7-5. We’re not even close to sniffing the top 25 so yeah we are irrelevant 9 years in.

Another sad reality is that same majority of Lair posters you reference are probably overestimating what the 2024 Panthers are realistically capable of. This team will be trying to install a completely overhauled offense and is sorely lacking personnel in nearly every meaningful way.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

No shockers here just outlining the mountain to climb if you aren't in the SEC or Big10.

Top 10
SEC 4
B10 4
ACC 1
IND 1

Top 15
SEC 7
B10 4
ACC 2
IND 1
P12 1

Top 25
SEC 9
B10 6
ACC 4
IND 1
P12 5

ACC with 7 in top 29.

Team
1 Georgia(46) SEC
2 Ohio State(15) B10
3 Oregon(1) B10
4 Texas SEC
5 Alabama SEC
6 Ole Miss SEC
7 Notre Dame IND
8 Penn State B10
9 Michigan B10
10 Florida State ACC
11 Missouri SEC
12 Utah L12
13 LSU SEC
14 Clemson ACC
15 Tennessee SEC
16 Oklahoma SEC
17 Oklahoma State L12
18 Kansas State L12
19 Miami ACC
20 Texas A&M SEC
21 Arizona L12
22 Kansas L12
23 USC B10
24 NC State ACC
25 Iowa B10

Others receiving votes: Louisville 111, Virginia Tech 77, Boise State 47, SMU 33, Iowa State 33, Liberty 32, Washington 23, West Virginia 17, Memphis 16, Nebraska 16, Wisconsin 15, UTSA 6, Tulane 5, Appalachian State 4, Kentucky 3, Auburn 2, Colorado 1

​

Iowa is grandfathered in the Top 25. What a joke. They will beat a bunch of bad teams 14-7, win 8 or 9 games and land in a cushy NYD bowl.

 

[KennyHeisman8]

Another sad reality is that same majority of Lair posters you reference are probably overestimating what the 2024 Panthers are realistically capable of. This team will be trying to install a completely overhauled offense and is sorely lacking personnel in nearly every meaningful way.

I mean of course they are. Look at last year. It was pretty popular to say a baseline was eight wins. That was at the height of the Narduzzi delusions.

But the point stands, people will always overestimate their own team.

 

[cashisking884]

Michigan is gonna drop off a cliff this year. They lost everything and everybody that matters from that natty team, starting with the head coach and a QB who went 27-1 as a starter.

They have a pretty awesome front 7 coming back.

The schedule is pretty easy. And of the 3 games that are probably 50-50 or worse for them, 2 are at home.

 

[cashisking884]

Iowa is grandfathered in the Top 25. What a joke. They will beat a bunch of bad teams 14-7, win 8 or 9 games and land in a cushy NYD bowl.

They probably more so than any team, got the most “Big Ten West” of the new Big Ten schedule. Just a lucky draw this year.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

No doubt, more often then not it seems Pitt gets no pre season votes.

Do we deserve one this season? If somebody did give us a vote, they're an idiot.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Another sad reality is that same majority of Lair posters you reference are probably overestimating what the 2024 Panthers are realistically capable of. This team will be trying to install a completely overhauled offense and is sorely lacking personnel in nearly every meaningful way.

Yep. If we go 7-5 this season I'll be ecstatic. Probably not happening.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Do we deserve one this season? If somebody did give us a vote, they're an idiot.

Also, we have finished in the top 25 like twice in the last 14 seasons. In one of those seasons, we were in the preseason rankings. So are they blatantly disrespecting us, or have they been kind of accurate in their assessments?

Just wild to think what Pitt fans expect without the team doing anything to validate those expectations.

 

[cashisking884]

Yep. If we go 7-5 this season I'll be ecstatic. Probably not happening.

The schedule is a little too easy to be that against 7 wins.

Clemson is probably the only loss you’re writing in ink.
Kent and Y-Town are wins you write in ink.

I’d probably pencil WVU, SMU, and Lville as losses. But not in ink.

And the rest are probably in the neighborhood of 50-50 where you aren’t writing in anything.

It’s actually not that bad of a schedule. I don’t think Narruzzi needs to sell his soul to get 7 wins.

 

[NCPitt]

I mean of course they are. Look at last year. It was pretty popular to say a baseline was eight wins. That was at the height of the Narduzzi delusions.

But the point stands, people will always overestimate their own team.

And the usual prophets of doom will be here to profess their negative wisdom.

 

[cashisking884]

The schedule is a little too easy to be that against 7 wins.

Clemson is probably the only loss you’re writing in ink.
Kent and Y-Town are wins you write in ink.

I’d probably pencil WVU, SMU, and Lville as losses. But not in ink.

And the rest are probably in the neighborhood of 50-50.

It’s actually not that bad of a schedule. I don’t think Narruzzi needs to sell his soul to get 7 wins.

And really, 7-5 is needed to carry some optimism into 2025. Because that schedule looks brutal in comparison.

7-5 and play at like a Top 40 to 60 level in the analytics would go a long way.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

The schedule is a little too easy to be that against 7 wins.

Clemson is probably the only loss you’re writing in ink.
Kent and Y-Town are wins you write in ink.

I’d probably pencil WVU, SMU, and Lville as losses. But not in ink.

And the rest are probably in the neighborhood of 50-50 where you aren’t writing in anything.

It’s actually not that bad of a schedule. I don’t think Narruzzi needs to sell his soul to get 7 wins.

It's not a difficult schedule, but there are going to be a bunch of 50/50ish dog fights (if you want to call them that) just like Wake/Cincy/WVU/BC last season. I'm usually taking the team with the more efficient offense in those instances, which I don't expect to have.

Kent State - win
Cincy - 50/50ish, but at their place
WVU - 50/50ish, maybe leaning loss
YSU - win
UNC - 50/50ish, but they recruit better and are always stacked at QB
Cal - leaning win
Syracuse - 50/50ish, but they have the better QB, Gadsden, and a good RB (i.e. better offensive efficiency)
SMU - leaning loss
UVA - 50/50ish, because they started to show some grit last season at times
Clemson - leaning loss
Louisville - leaning loss
BC - 50/50ish... no idea what could happen that late in the season; I'll say leaning win

Those aren't necessarily my game by game predictions, but rather what I would expect the odds to be as I sit here today.

So if I'm giving us wins against Kent State, YSU, Cal, and BC and losses against Clemson, Louisville, WVU, and SMU then that means we have to go 3-1 against UNC, UVA, Syracuse, and Cincy. I just don't see it. I think this offense is going to frustrate the hell out of the fans most of the season.

And we better be 3-1 after the first four games to have any shot at 7-5. Because 5-3 against the rest of that schedule ain't happening.

 

[pittdan77]

Personally, my favorite part of the preseason top 25 discussion is when top B1G teams are brought up and the super soft schedule is almost automatically mentioned.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The schedule is a little too easy to be that against 7 wins.

Clemson is probably the only loss you’re writing in ink.
Kent and Y-Town are wins you write in ink.

I’d probably pencil WVU, SMU, and Lville as losses. But not in ink.

And the rest are probably in the neighborhood of 50-50 where you aren’t writing in anything.

It’s actually not that bad of a schedule. I don’t think Narruzzi needs to sell his soul to get 7 wins.

WVU is terrible. Almost beat them last year with me at QB.

 

[JWB389]

PSU’s schedule is extremely soft this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go 10-2 and make the CFP. However, there’s a clear separation between the elite 6ish teams of college football and the next tier with Penn State.

How do you define “extremely soft”? I see a SOS rating as high as 14 and as low as 33 (by the win/loss method).

at WVU
A 5 game stretch of:
UCLA - not a juggernaut, but not a gimme.
at USC
Bye
at Wisconsin
Ohio State preseason #2
Washington - # 2 seed in CFP last year

Piece of cake.

 

[thebadby2]

They have a pretty awesome front 7 coming back.

The schedule is pretty easy. And of the 3 games that are probably 50-50 or worse for them, 2 are at home.

1 returning starter on offense. 4 on defense. 17 starters lost. 13 of them drafted.

New, first time head coach that looked way over his head when he stepped in for Harbaugh last year.

New OC and DC. More than half the staff is new.

Gaping hole at QB. They still don't know who it's gonna be, none of their options are proven, the guy with the most reps as a backup last year can't throw. It will be a massive dropoff.

All 5 of last season's starting OLs are gone.

They have some elite individual talent, like the best TE, CB and DT in the country and an elite RB returning, but they lost way too much to be taken very seriously. They have been sanctioned. Even with an easy on-paper schedule, I think they lay an egg this year. And I think their first time HC is in WAY over his head.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

How do you define “extremely soft”? I see a SOS rating as high as 14 and as low as 33 (by the win/loss method).

at WVU
A 5 game stretch of:
UCLA - not a juggernaut, but not a gimme.
at USC
Bye
at Wisconsin
Ohio State preseason #2
Washington - # 2 seed in CFP last year

Piece of cake.

WVU is terrible. UCLA is terrible. Washington lost almost their entire team. USC might be a tough game. OSU is a loss. Wisky might be tough.

PSU has a 3 game schedule. If they go 1-2, they are in the CFP.

 

[cashisking884]

It's not a difficult schedule, but there are going to be a bunch of 50/50ish dog fights (if you want to call them that) just like Wake/Cincy/WVU/BC last season. I'm usually taking the team with the more efficient offense in those instances, which I don't expect to have.

Kent State - win
Cincy - 50/50ish, but at their place
WVU - 50/50ish, maybe leaning loss
YSU - win
UNC - 50/50ish, but they recruit better and are always stacked at QB
Cal - leaning win
Syracuse - 50/50ish, but they have the better QB, Gadsden, and a good RB (i.e. better offensive efficiency)
SMU - leaning loss
UVA - 50/50ish, because they started to show some grit last season at times
Clemson - leaning loss
Louisville - leaning loss
BC - 50/50ish... no idea what could happen that late in the season; I'll say leaning win

Those aren't necessarily my game by game predictions, but rather what I would expect the odds to be as I sit here today.

So if I'm giving us wins against Kent State, YSU, Cal, and BC and losses against Clemson, Louisville, WVU, and SMU then that means we have to go 3-1 against UNC, UVA, Syracuse, and Cincy. I just don't see it. I think this offense is going to frustrate the hell out of the fans most of the season.

And we better be 3-1 after the first four games to have any shot at 7-5. Because 5-3 against the rest of that schedule ain't happening.

Cal is probably 50-50. They finished as a Top 60 team in the power poll analytics last year. Project to be that this year as well. That’s probably somewhere around the ceiling for Pitt.

So you can’t really call that lean W.

But I agree. Most of the schedule is probably a 50-50 dogfight. Which means 7-5 isn’t going to take a miracle.

 

[cashisking884]

1 returning starter on offense. 4 on defense. 17 starters lost. 13 of them drafted.

New, first time head coach that looked way over his head when he stepped in for Harbaugh last year.

New OC and DC. More than half the staff is new.

Gaping hole at QB. They still don't know who it's gonna be, none of their options are proven, the guy with the most reps as a backup last year can't throw. It will be a massive dropoff.

All 5 of last season's starting OLs are gone.

They have some elite individual talent, like the best TE, CB and DT in the country and an elite RB returning, but they lost way too much to be taken very seriously. They have been sanctioned. Even with an easy on-paper schedule, I think they lay an egg this year. And I think their first time HC is in WAY over his head.

But what’s the floor for them? 4 losses?

 

[cashisking884]

WVU is terrible. UCLA is terrible. Washington lost almost their entire team. USC might be a tough game. OSU is a loss. Wisky might be tough.

PSU has a 3 game schedule. If they go 1-2, they are in the CFP.

WVU is decent. Probably a Top 40 team in terms of power poll rankings.

Going on the road to Morgantown when they have a Top 40 level team is not the easiest of games.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Cal is probably 50-50. They finished as a Top 60 team in the power poll analytics last year. Project to be that this year as well. That’s probably somewhere around the ceiling for Pitt.

So you can’t really call that lean W.

But I agree. Most of the schedule is probably a 50-50 dogfight. Which means 7-5 isn’t going to take a miracle.

Definitely wouldn't be a miracle, but it would defy the mathematical odds. If you throw away the two freebies, it would involve us going 5-5 the rest of the way, when I think we would be underdogs in 7 or 8 of those games as of today. Yeah, it would hardly be a Miracle on Turf. I just don't see it happening with what I expect our QB situation to look like.

 

[thebadby2]

But what’s the floor for them? 4 losses?

4-6 losses. Coming off a 15-0 natty and a 40-3 three year stretch? That's not good. And then what happens after this season?

All I'm saying is I don't think anyone on their schedule is afraid of them, or should be afraid of them, this year. They shot their shot last year and left the cupboard badly depleted. I am highly skeptical that Sherrod Brown can succeed there as HC, especially after seeing him in action as acting HC last season.

Harbaugh leaving one stop ahead of the reaper is devastating for them.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

WVU is decent. Probably a Top 40 team in terms of power poll rankings.

Going on the road to Morgantown when they have a Top 40 level team is not the easiest of games.

WVU has an above average QB and a good RB. Beyond that, their talent level is similar to ours. They are better but not by much. No reason to lose to them at home. They will be a 3 point favorite.

 

[thebadby2]

The schedule is a little too easy to be that against 7 wins.

Clemson is probably the only loss you’re writing in ink.
Kent and Y-Town are wins you write in ink.

I’d probably pencil WVU, SMU, and Lville as losses. But not in ink.

And the rest are probably in the neighborhood of 50-50 where you aren’t writing in anything.

It’s actually not that bad of a schedule. I don’t think Narruzzi needs to sell his soul to get 7 wins.

This year's Pitt roster is as depleted as it's been since Chryst took over, and we are breaking in a new offense with basically MAC-level personnel. The relatively high expectations for Yarnell have almost no real world basis. After all, he was the last QB off the bench last year in a historically terrible QB room.

Defensively we lost a bunch of key personnel from a group that struggled last season.

Hard to see this season being any better than last.

 

[Pitt2009]

This year's Pitt roster is as depleted as it's been since Chryst took over, and we are breaking in a new offense with basically MAC-level personnel. The relatively high expectations for Yarnell have almost no real world basis. After all, he was the last QB off the bench last year in a historically terrible QB room.

Defensively we lost a bunch of key personnel from a group that struggled last season.

Hard to see this season being any better than last.

Last year was interesting because a lot of those key guys were sixth year seniors who didn’t play much prior to 2023. If not for the covid year, they would’ve moved on earlier and make room for younger, likely more talented players. I guess we’ll see how that plays out.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

This year's Pitt roster is as depleted as it's been since Chryst took over, and we are breaking in a new offense with basically MAC-level personnel. The relatively high expectations for Yarnell have almost no real world basis. After all, he was the last QB off the bench last year in a historically terrible QB room.

Defensively we lost a bunch of key personnel from a group that struggled last season.

Hard to see this season being any better than last.

Yeah, there's been talk that Yarnell might not even be the starter. I just find it surprising that many seem to be confident in him being at least an average ACC starter. All we have to go by is this:

1) He won on the road against a bad MAC team. It was a game until late in the 3rd quarter, and the game plan involved not putting the ball in his hands all that much. It also wasn't clear if he or the Dartmouth transfer would even start the game until the coaches decided at some point the week of.

2) He won a close game against a pretty lousy BC team at home in the dog days of the season.

3) He lost a game against a so-so Duke team starting a backup QB.

Yeah, he has completed some passes downfield. Some of those were passes where he was rolling right and throwing back across his body to the middle of the field, which should almost never be done. You'd have to think the law of averages would catch up with him at some point with that. He also doesn't appear to be all that gritty or nimble, and his deep ball looks good but some of the other stuff seems a bit soft. So it's not like he's blowing people away with the eye test. I'm just not seeing all this reason for excitement.

 

[ButtPilgrim]

Here's my computer poll. I don't agree with everything in here at all, but it's a little more balanced. Also for whatever reason my computer loves Virginia Tech and somehow loves Michigan despite everything they lost... which it's supposed to really penalize them for. Everything's a work in progress, you know?

1	SEC	Georgia
2	BIG	Oregon
3	BIG	Ohio State
4	SEC	Texas
5	BIG	Michigan
6	IND	Notre Dame
7	BIG	Penn State
8	SEC	Missouri
9	ACC	Virginia Tech
10	ACC	Florida State
11	SEC	Oklahoma
12	SEC	Alabama
13	B12	Arizona
14	SEC	LSU
15	ACC	SMU
16	ACC	Louisville
17	B12	Oklahoma State
18	SEC	Texas A&M
19	ACC	Clemson
20	SEC	Mississippi
21	B12	Iowa State
22	BIG	Iowa
23	ACC	Miami
24	B12	Kansas State
25	BIG	UCLA

 

[JWB389]

WVU is terrible. UCLA is terrible. Washington lost almost their entire team. USC might be a tough game. OSU is a loss. Wisky might be tough.

PSU has a 3 game schedule. If they go 1-2, they are in the CFP.

Yet WVU is getting more top 25 votes than WI. A season is not played in a series of 12 game vacuums. If it was, I would look at it differently. People post crap without even looking. Heck, HailtoPitt above has them losing to a team that’s not even the schedule.

 

[NCPitt]

This year's Pitt roster is as depleted as it's been since Chryst took over, and we are breaking in a new offense with basically MAC-level personnel. The relatively high expectations for Yarnell have almost no real world basis. After all, he was the last QB off the bench last year in a historically terrible QB room.

Defensively we lost a bunch of key personnel from a group that struggled last season.

Hard to see this season being any better than last.

The roster is far from depleted. It is just young at many spots.