Are we in ?

[PittPoker]

You...never...stop.

Pitt was going to lose to wake forest, and then cuse, and then Duke, and then cuse again...and now we won't make it.

Just stop

And you are the eternal optimist. The team has some bad losses, faltered down the stretch by losing 3 of its last 4 and like recruits said, we are on the bubble. You act like we are a lock and we're not. Joey Brackets has put us all over the place(says 1 thing about us every 2 hours it seems) and whether we like it or if it's fair, Dixon has a bad reputation for playing a pathetic OOC schedule(which is factored in).

Sure I hope Pitt is in but I think they are most likely out or Dayton. Winning either at GT or VT and this wouldn't even have been a discussion, we'd be 100% in.

 

[UPitt129]

And you are the eternal optimist. The team has some bad losses, faltered down the stretch by losing 3 of its last 4 and like recruits said, we are on the bubble. You act like we are a lock and we're not. Joey Brackets has put us all over the place(says 1 thing about us every 2 hours it seems) and whether we like it or if it's fair, Dixon has a bad reputation for playing a pathetic OOC schedule(which is factored in).

Sure I hope Pitt is in but I think they are most likely out or Dayton. Winning either at GT or VT and this wouldn't even have been a discussion, we'd be 100% in.

You are 100% wrong.

 

[PittPoker]

You are 100% wrong.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm not.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

That's a good point. Pitts resume is basically, this isn't a top 25 team, but it's clearly a tournament team. Pitt's record is very strong when compared the bubble.

We just seem like a 9 seed to me. Very flawed high major with a good record against teams 25-100, and fewer bad losses than any other bubble team.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm not.

How would the committee justify leaving out a bubble team with 9 Top 100 wins. Come on. I know we have warts......but its the bubble. Nobody on the bubble has 9 Top 100s.

 

[PittPoker]

How would the committee justify leaving out a bubble team with 9 Top 100 wins. Come on. I know we have warts......but its the bubble. Nobody on the bubble has 9 Top 100s.

Bad OOC Schedule, 2 bad losses(1 at home to a really bad acc team), faltered down the stretch and only beat 1 top 20 team the whole season. That's how.

 

[BFo8]

And you are the eternal optimist. The team has some bad losses, faltered down the stretch by losing 3 of its last 4 and like recruits said, we are on the bubble. You act like we are a lock and we're not. Joey Brackets has put us all over the place(says 1 thing about us every 2 hours it seems) and whether we like it or if it's fair, Dixon has a bad reputation for playing a pathetic OOC schedule(which is factored in).

Sure I hope Pitt is in but I think they are most likely out or Dayton. Winning either at GT or VT and this wouldn't even have been a discussion, we'd be 100% in.

Cmon Poker you're better than this. Do you really think Pitt is out? Do you follow college basketball at all on a national basis and see who Pitt is competing with for a spot? Do you really think the ACC will get only 5 teams?

 

[BFo8]

In the AAC, root for Tulane. Why? Because they have already decided to fire their coach when the conference tournament is over, and them making the NCAA tournament would bring up a hilarious conundrum for them. Does Tulane fire a coach that just got them to the NCAA, or do they swallow their pride and bring him back even though they've already decided to can him? What would be the repercussions for a program at the level of Tulane to fire a guy that just got them to the NCAA tournament?

Was thinking the same thing. Has Tulane been in the tournament since the Hot Rod Williams days? If they pull off the miracle Conroy will probably give them the big FU and move on to a better job.

 

[PittPoker]

Cmon Poker you're better than this. Do you really think Pitt is out? Do you follow college basketball at all on a national basis and see who Pitt is competing with for a spot? Do you really think the ACC will get only 5 teams?

I don't know but I'm getting more and more nervous every day.

 

[UPitt129]

How would the committee justify leaving out a bubble team with 9 Top 100 wins. Come on. I know we have warts......but its the bubble. Nobody on the bubble has 9 Top 100s.

Exactly. There would be absolutely no justification to leave Pitt out for a team like Monmouth, Wich St, Akron, St Mary's, Vanderbilt, etc.

 

[UPitt129]

Bad OOC Schedule, 2 bad losses(1 at home to a really bad acc team), faltered down the stretch and only beat 1 top 20 team the whole season. That's how.

What you just described, I can say about several other teams on the bubble.

Further, the committee doesn't look at last 10 games anymore, so that doesn't matter. The other bubble teams we are up against might have beat at most one more top 20 team than us. OOC schedule is not supposed to be considered, and furthermore, our overall SOS is better than any of the other bubble teams.

 

[PittPoker]

What you just described, I can say about several other teams on the bubble.

Further, the committee doesn't look at last 10 games anymore, so that doesn't matter. The other bubble teams we are up against might have beat at most one more top 20 team than us. OOC schedule is not supposed to be considered, and furthermore, our overall SOS is better than any of the other bubble teams.

So if we meet all of these requirements why does Lunardi keep pushing us lower and lower(now 1 team from not even making the field)??

 

[Blair_45]

Palm still has us a 9 seed in his recent bracket update this morning playing USC and getting Villanova with a win. He even has Syracuse getting in as his last four in. Palm's bracket is much more efficient and makes more sense then Lunardi's. Palm states that Pitt has 5 of their 9 top 100 wins on the road which isn't great but should be more then good enough for the bottom half of the brackets.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

I don't agree with that. The reason we have to play in to be a 10 seed is that you cannot have a conference champ in a play in game. So, the final bubble teams in go to Dayton. If SDSU was ahead of Pitt, they could easily be on the 8-9 line and the play in game might be between two 12 seeds. Some years, when you have better conference champs who are better, the play in game is to be a 12 seed. This year, the mid majors aren't good, so they all go to the back of the bracket, and the play in game is between 10's and 11's.

Also, I trust the bracketologists who think very little of SDSU. I don't think that would be a two bid league.

Conference champs not being able to be put in playoff round games is one of the major flaws with the selection system. Any team outside of the top 64 regardless of any other considerations should be placed in a play in round.

 

[UPitt129]

So if we meet all of these requirements why does Lunardi keep pushing us lower and lower(now 1 team from not even making the field)??

Why are you taking Lunardi as such gospel? The only reason I can think of is because he shares your negative outlook, so you are latching on to it. Almost every other bracketologist has pitt higher, and I think I did a decent job breaking down in the thread I put up about his recent bracket why Pitt shouldn't be lower than a lot of those teams.

 

[Harve74]

Any given committee can decide to emphasize whatever criteria they choose. So, anything could happen and as Pitt fans, we're conditioned to expect disappointment.

Nevertheless, given the frequently uttered statement that almost everybody gets 64 or 65 of the slots correct, and just about every bracket out there has us easily in, our chances are pretty good.

Lunardi REALLY destroyed his credibility and, perhaps indelibly, became an official media whore by giving completely contradictory opinions based on his audience. He has frequently showed a fondness for mid-majors, but the entire committee sometimes does too. But his over-emphasis of the OOC schedules, rather than the entire body of work is getting a bit ridiculous.

Sure, some of those mid-majors or lower will upset higher seeds and the mid-major proponents will crow about how they deserve even MORE bids. The reality of the situation is those upsets actually just show the randomness inherent to a single-elimination tournament.

Mostly, the upper half teams from the better conferences are better than the second team of a one-bid conference -and, often than the best team.

Pitt is a tough team to predict in this tournament. At our best, we deserve an upper half bid. But, we re so inconsistent we are perfectly capable of losing to anyone who will be in the field of 68.

I'll be surprised if we AREN'T in the tournament. I'll also be surprised if we play more than 2 games.

 

[whirlybird optio]

100/103 on bracket matrix have us in. That's a close to a bubble lock as possible. We are in much better shape than other on the bubble. Other media guys like Seth Davis aren't even mentioning us we are so safe.

I really don't think lunardi will ever move us out. I'll be surprised if we don't get a bracket from Joe sometime on Sunday which moves us up some.

 

[SteelBowl70]

People keep acting like Cincy is a lock but I'm not so sure. Put our resume side by side.

We are 20-11. They are 22-10, similar records.

Both have 2 Top 50 wins. We have 9 Top 100s. They have 7. We have 2 sub 100 losses. They have 1.

What I like about our resume is 7 of 11 losses came to RPIs 17 or better. 6 of their 9 losses came against RPI 49 or worse.

I dont think its Pitt or Cincy. Both are pretty safe but I think we can jump them for a better seed.

I agree based on Palm camparisons, Pitt looks good against all these bubble teams
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/PITT/CINCY

 

[UPitt129]

Time to email Chris. You just don't stop. I hope you get banned for a while.

Well, you could be reported too...you're posting the same negative thing over and over, that pitt will drop to the NIT, but you aren't backing it up with anything, and have ignored multiple fact based counter arguments.

 

[NTOP]

I hope I'm wrong but I'm not.

You also declared that Pitt would lose its last 8 games....all of them. Predictions are generally worthless....not just yours.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Report me for being negative? Souf just doesn't care about Chris' request for civility and no attacks, you are just clueless on every level.

Poker, you might want to check out lunardi just moving us up 6 spots this morning. I told you that would happen.

 

[UPitt129]

Report me for being negative? Souf just doesn't care about Chris' request for civility and no attacks, you are just clueless on every level.

You've posted over and over that pitt will miss, that you are right, but don't give a solid reason.

 

[UPitt129]

Poker, you might want to check out lunardi just moving us up 6 spots this morning. I told you that would happen.

LOL. Lunardi's cred just went further down the toilet.

 

[PittPoker]

Poker, you might want to check out lunardi just moving us up 6 spots this morning. I told you that would happen.

That's great but he has some weird infatuation with us. Focuses on us more than any other bubble team and every hour has a different analysis. Just bizarre.

 

[DT_PITT]

Poker, you might want to check out lunardi just moving us up 6 spots this morning. I told you that would happen.

Yes you did! Lunardi's been especially weird this year, and I let myself get dragged into it.

 

[thebadby2]

I cannot see how anyone can say we are comfortably in. Or comfortably out. We are literally on the bubble.

I am thinking UNC's boatracing of ND as not hurting us. Because we at least made it a game for a half or so.

This is correct. Believe me, this one could go either way. Our resume is just like a lot of others that are on the bubble. And losing the last 2 league games of the regular seaon to lesser rated teams could really come back to haunt us, the committee does look at that stuff. I think if Michgan beats Purdue they may jump us just because they are playing well at the right time. I want us in as bad as anyone, but I honestly think it's 50/50 that it happens, amd we set ourselves up for this by not taking care of our business the last two gamess of the seaon. No excuse for that. This is a team that lacks a lot of things. We just aren't very good.

Fingers crossed but no matter what it will be nerve wracking tomorrow.

 

[whirlybird optio]

This is correct. Believe me, this one could go either way. Our resume is just like a lot of others that are on the bubble. And losing the last 2 league games of the regular seaon to lesser rated teams could really come back to haunt us, the committee does look at that stuff. I think if Michgan beats Purdue they may jump us just because they are playing well at the right time. I want us in as bad as anyone, but I honestly think it's 50/50 that it happens, amd we set ourselves up for this by not taking care of our business the last two gamess of the seaon. No excuse for that. This is a team that lacks a lot of things. We just aren't very good.

Fingers crossed but no matter what it will be nerve wracking tomorrow.

If you are in literally every single bracket projection, it's not 50/50. It's like 99/1

 

[Pittbaseball11]

FWIW, both Lunardi and Palm have taken Pitt off the bubble and just have them as "IN".

 

[whirlybird optio]

FWIW, both Lunardi and Palm have taken Pitt off the bubble and just have them as "IN".

Would we have made it with a Cuse loss? I dunno. I think we would have been in slightly better position than Cuse, but we'd either be last 2 in or first 2 out.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Would we have made it with a Cuse loss? I dunno. I think we would have been in slightly better position than Cuse, but we'd either be last 2 in or first 2 out.

My gut feeling was always that Pitt would go to Dayton with a loss to Cuse, provided there wasn't too much bubble chaos.

I would agree that they probably would have been in the range they were yesterday without the Cuse win (2nd to last team in).

 

[Deer Head]

What are our chances of Dayton realistically? 15-20%? Less?

 

[whirlybird optio]

What are our chances of Dayton realistically? 15-20%? Less?

5%

 

[PittPoker]

FWIW, both Lunardi and Palm have taken Pitt off the bubble and just have them as "IN".

Until 2 hours from now when he'll have us as the last team in.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Until 2 hours from now when he'll have us as the last team in.

Relax. It's over.

 

[DT_PITT]

Relax. It's over.

Agree- all of my concerns are gone, just as you told me they should be 48 hours ago.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Agree- all of my concerns are gone, just as you told me they should be 48 hours ago.

Even if everything that could possibly go wrong for bubble teams goes wrong:


Memphis-AAC
Michigan
LSU
Davidson
SDSU loses

Even with all that, we'd be in, and probably not even in Dayton

 

[noelr]

Relax. It's over.

Promise? I am still nervous bc of lunardi and mich and ucon

 

[thebadby2]

If you are in literally every single bracket projection, it's not 50/50. It's like 99/1

Watching Gameday and the ESPN analysts all have us in, they have agreed on the 8 teams slugging it out for the last 4 spots amd we aren't one of them. Nonetheless, for safety's sake I really hope Purdue beats Michigan today. We have 1 RPI top 50 win, if Michigan wins today they will have 5 and will have beaten a team that beat us soundly-and at time of the season when wins and losses matter the most.

Again, that should only impact the other teams fighting for the last 4 spots and according to just about everyone right now we aren't one of those, but we're Pitt-we have been burned before.

 

[California Panther]

We have 1 RPI top 50 win,

Don't we have 2 Top 50 wins--Duke and ND?

 

[whirlybird optio]

Watching Gameday and the ESPN analysts all have us in, they have agreed on the 8 teams slugging it out for the last 4 spots amd we aren't one of them. Nonetheless, for safety's sake I really hope Purdue beats Michigan today. We have 1 RPI top 50 win, if Michigan wins today they will have 5 and will have beaten a team that beat us soundly-and at time of the season when wins and losses matter the most.

Again, that should only impact the other teams fighting for the last 4 spots and according to just about everyone right now we aren't one of those, but we're Pitt-we have been burned before.

1? We have Duke and ND, and Davidson is getting close. We also have double their top 100 wins.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Practice makes perfect