I typically don't buy the "if X, they'd be in already" argument. I mean when the ACC took Miami, VT and BC, and fans of BIg East schools saying they would be next if the ACC expanded always got the "they'd be in already if the ACC wanted them" argument. Then 9 years later Pitt and Cuse were added.
The legit national writers have confirmed there is interest between Oregon/Washington and the BIG, but the BIG presidents want to "pause" and integrate USC/UCLA. It may happen. It may not happen. But I think there is legit interest from both sides, and as long as there is, a school like Oregon, or Washington, or Clemson (another smallish school), or UVA (another smallish school that the BIG would be interested in), UNC, FSU, Miami (another school the BIG is rumored to have be interested in) will always have one foot out the door.