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Bowl projections week 12

Music city would be fun, have a friend we could meet there. Would also like to see our secondary against a Mike Leach team throwing 60 passes to see how they handle it. Missouri would be a fine opponent too.
Not only would Mizzou be a good opponent but, as someone who’s watched almost all of their games, they’re a very beatable SEC team.
 
Wait, doesn't Mizzou have a bowl ban this year??? Nashville would be the place to be regardless. Also, i see 4 easy W's for this team in all of those games
 
I know Annapolis is within the quick driving distance, but this doesn’t sound like a great situation otherwise for Pitt. Just like a few years ago you are playing a decent navy team as essentially an away game in a tier 2 (I think) bowl. Decent chance of a loss in a not major bowl. Even finishing 8-4 that would be disappointing. Would like to think there is no shot we end up there at 9-3 but who knows. Still think pinstripe is strongly in play but much prefer orange (obviously), music city, Orlando or belk.
 
247 / pitt navy military

SI / Pitt Wash State Music City

ESPN /Pitt Missori Music City

ESPN / Pitt Illinois Pinstripe

McMurphy and Mandel are usually 2 of the best on the minor bowls, especially McMurphy who seems pretty connected in College Football.. He's been saying Music city for a while. Does 247 have any sources? Thought they were basically a recruiting sight.
 
McMurphy and Mandel are usually 2 of the best on the minor bowls, especially McMurphy who seems pretty connected in College Football.. He's been saying Music city for a while. Does 247 have any sources? Thought they were basically a recruiting sight.

Idk

I just got in the habit of posting on Sunday nights.
 
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McMurphy and Mandel are usually 2 of the best on the minor bowls, especially McMurphy who seems pretty connected in College Football.. He's been saying Music city for a while. Does 247 have any sources? Thought they were basically a recruiting sight.

Everyone sucks on these projections. Its not like Bracketology where any moron can outdo Lunardi. Those are so easy. These bowl projections are for entertainment purposes only.

Bowls Pitt will not go to:

Belk: too many local teams
Sun: just there
Music City (if Louisville is available)

Right now, if we put UVa in the Orange Bowl, this is what I'd say:

Camping World: ND (need them to take a NY6 bowl

Belk: VT
Pinstripe: Pitt
Music City: Louisville
Sun: Wake or Miami
 
I would be surprised if Pitt ends up anywhere other than the pinstripe or military bowl. School will probably push for it too since it’s easier travel for fans.
 
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I would be surprised if Pitt ends up anywhere other than the pinstripe or military bowl. School will probably push for it too since it’s easier travel for fans.

I hope Pitt wouldn't push for the Military Bowl, that is so small time.
 
Miami at 8-4 would be winners of 5 in a row at that point, and if no ACC teams other than Clemson are ranked, the Orange Bowl would get to pick whichever ACC team it wanted. Miami would probably make as much sense as anybody else.
I understand that but a lot would have to fall in place for it to happen.
 
I understand that but a lot would have to fall in place for it to happen.

True, but that’s true regardless ... between the 5 teams vying for the Orange Bowl, each still has 2 games left to play. And of course for the team that wins the Coastal, that team still has 3 games.

So with 11 games left to play, that gives you 2,048 possible outcomes (knew that digital electronics engineering degree would come in handy). Well, actually less than that, since Pitt is at VT and VT is at UVa, and we’re also not considering an upset of Clemson in the ACCCG.... Eliminating those games reduces the possible different outcomes down to just 256. Per ESPN’s FPI rankings, at least a couple of those outcomes are very close (specifically Wake Forest at Syracuse and Pitt at VT), but if you just project “chalk”, you get:

Wake Forest 9-3
Virginia 9-4
Virginia Tech 8-4
Pitt 8-4
Miami 8-4

You’ve got to think that under that scenario if Virginia is competitive against Clemson, they get the Orange Bowl bid. But if Virginia is not competitive in that scenario, does anybody out of that list get ranked? If not, then the Orange Bowl gets to choose....

And that’s almost certainly the scenario from which McMurphy is basing his Orange Bowl selection ... though he could equally be picking Pitt to pull the slight upset over VT, beat BC, and lose big to Clemson, which again gives you the choice of an 8-4 Miami or 9-4 Pitt, both unranked....
 
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True, but that’s true regardless ... between the 5 teams vying for the Orange Bowl, each still has 2 games left to play. And of course for the team that wins the Coastal, that team still has 3 games.

So with 11 games left to play, that gives you 2,048 possible outcomes (knew that digital electronics engineering degree would come in handy). Well, actually less than that, since Pitt is at VT and VT is at UVa, and we’re also not considering an upset of Clemson in the ACCCG.... Eliminating those games reduces the possible different outcomes down to just 256. Per ESPN’s FPI rankings, at least a couple of those outcomes are very close (specifically Wake Forest at Syracuse and Pitt at VT), but if you just project “chalk”, you get:

Wake Forest 9-3
Virginia 9-4
Virginia Tech 8-4
Pitt 8-4
Miami 8-4

You’ve got to think that under that scenario if Virginia is competitive against Clemson, they get the Orange Bowl bid. But if Virginia is not competitive in that scenario, does anybody out of that list get ranked? If not, then the Orange Bowl gets to choose....

And that’s almost certainly the scenario from which McMurphy is basing his Orange Bowl selection ... though he could equally be picking Pitt to pull the slight upset over VT, beat BC, and lose big to Clemson, which again gives you the choice of an 8-4 Miami or 9-4 Pitt, both unranked....
Good breakdown - my gut tells me that the Miami scenario is more of a reach than the others. That's why I was surprised with his prediction. JMO.
 
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Good breakdown - my gut tells me that the Miami scenario is more of a reach than the others. That's why I was surprised with his prediction. JMO.

Miami has a better chance than you think.

Here's how I think Miami gets there:

- Beat FIU and Duke

- Pitt, VT, and UVa all lose 1 more game INCLUDING the ACCG

At 8-4, I believe the Orange Bowl would take an unranked Miami team over an unranked 4 loss Pitt, VT, or UVa team.
 
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Miami has a better chance than you think.

Here's how I think Miami gets there:

- Beat FIU and Duke

- Pitt, VT, and UVa all lose 1 more game INCLUDING the ACCG

At 8-4, I believe the Orange Bowl would take an unranked Miami team over an unranked 4 loss Pitt, VT, or UVa team.

There is a good chance an 8-4 Miami with five wins in a row and "quality" wins against UVA and Pitt would be ranked, especially if teams 15-30 keep beating each other up in the last two weeks. Which is why so much of this debate is academic. Gotta pull for Duke.
 
There is a good chance an 8-4 Miami with five wins in a row and "quality" wins against UVA and Pitt would be ranked, especially if teams 15-30 keep beating each other up in the last two weeks. Which is why so much of this debate is academic. Gotta pull for Duke.

They also looked very good blowing out FSU and UofL. Jarren Williams appears to be the answer at QB.
 
There is a good chance an 8-4 Miami with five wins in a row and "quality" wins against UVA and Pitt would be ranked, especially if teams 15-30 keep beating each other up in the last two weeks. Which is why so much of this debate is academic. Gotta pull for Duke.

That too. All this talk of Miami not going to the Orange Bowl is ridiculous. If there were odds on it, they may even have the best chance.

I think Pitt's best chance is to win the next 2 and UVa beat VT then get crushed by Clemson to give them 4 losses and make the CFP committee wonder if that looked like a team worthy of the OB.
 
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That too. All this talk of Miami not going to the Orange Bowl is ridiculous. If there were odds on it, they may even have the best chance.

I think Pitt's best chance is to win the next 2 and UVa beat VT then get crushed by Clemson to give them 4 losses and make the CFP committee wonder if that looked like a team worthy of the OB.

Agree, I think if any get crushed with that last data point it kills their ranking. Plus then they may have to prove they can muster up yet another round of travel and ticket sales to Orange.
 
There is a good chance an 8-4 Miami with five wins in a row and "quality" wins against UVA and Pitt would be ranked, especially if teams 15-30 keep beating each other up in the last two weeks.


Miami didn't even get one vote in either of the two polls this week. Beating FIU this weekend is unlikely to make any significant difference in that. And beating Duke the week after isn't going to impress anyone to any significant degree.

There is a far better chance that 8-4 Miami is no where close to the top 25 than they actually get in it.
 
The absolute worse case scenario would be the Military bowl. Playing Navy is a no win situation for Pitt. Win and everyone says they are not even a P5 team. Lose and not only will we hear how bad we are but the entire ACC. Losing to a non P5 team that finished 4 th or 5th would be awful
 
The absolute worse case scenario would be the Military bowl. Playing Navy is a no win situation for Pitt. Win and everyone says they are not even a P5 team. Lose and not only will we hear how bad we are but the entire ACC. Losing to a non P5 team that finished 4 th or 5th would be awful

Agree with some parts of this, disagree with others. Beating Navy in Annapolis would be a quality win, only haters would say otherwise. That being said, I don’t want that bowl game. Would much rather have Music City, even Pinstripe or obviously Orange (but that’s not gonna happen).
 
Agree, I think if any get crushed with that last data point it kills their ranking. Plus then they may have to prove they can muster up yet another round of travel and ticket sales to Orange.

No, the highest ranked team in the CFP poll goes so it wouldn't matter if Pitt says it will sell 0 tickets. If they are ranked the highest, they go. Where fan travel WOULD come in is if there are NO ranked teams.
 
I honestly don't know how to address someone who thinks Pitt would be 8-2 against 10 power five teams, never mind from the Big 12. I get it, don't believe in computer rankings or NFL players drafted per team, or the quality of their high school programs to feed a certain system etc.
 
I honestly don't know how to address someone who thinks Pitt would be 8-2 against 10 power five teams, never mind from the Big 12. I get it, don't believe in computer rankings or NFL players drafted per team, or the quality of their high school programs to feed a certain system etc.

Sorry I wasn't clear. Playing the complete B12 schedule with OOC I would say 8-4 for the season.
 
I honestly don't know how to address someone who thinks Pitt would be 8-2 against 10 power five teams, never mind from the Big 12. I get it, don't believe in computer rankings or NFL players drafted per team, or the quality of their high school programs to feed a certain system etc.

People have to be honest and realize that this year, the ACC is Clemson and 13 G5 teams. Its THAT bad.
 
Well we don't know what the fictional OOC would be. Are you saying three OOC wins and 5-4 against the conference? Then we wouldn't be that far apart though I'd guess 4-5 probably.

yeah, take our current OOC and drop either UCF or PSU. Play nine B12 teams. I'd say 8-4. Not much difference than where we are at now. Could be 8-4 this year also in ACC. You really think you plunk Oklahoma State in coastal they go 8-0 in ACC and win going away?
 
No, the highest ranked team in the CFP poll goes so it wouldn't matter if Pitt says it will sell 0 tickets. If they are ranked the highest, they go. Where fan travel WOULD come in is if there are NO ranked teams.
Right, assuming none ranked.
 
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