CONCACAF's wacky new WC Qualifying format

[Sean Miller Fan]

Oh CONCACAF, you're adorable.

So, the Hex is back but instead of earning your way there by finishing in the Top 2 in your group in the previous round, the 6 teams will be determined by FIFA rankings. You might say, well ok, USA and Mexico are going to get there anyway so why make them play more games to delay the inevitable. OK, fine. But there's 9 other teams which aren't separated by much who are trying to get those last 4 places. If they get left out based on arbitrary FIFA math, their shot to make the World Cup becomes essentially impossible.

So, if you are Canada, who actually has a Bayern Munich player and in my opinion, the best collection of talent in their history (I know, still doesn't say much), they could barely miss out on the Hex due to math and then have to do the following to qualify:

- Win your 4 team group (6 games). This shouldn't be overly difficult since they will be playing lower tier teams.

- Win an 8 team 2 leg knockout tournament of the 8 group winners from the previous stage.

- Win a 2 leg playoff vs the 4th place finisher from the Hex

- Win a 2 leg playoff vs a team from South America, Asia (has not been determined yet) or New Zealand.

So, lets use the rankings right now. The Hex would be Mexico, USA, CR, Jam, Hon, El Salvador.

The 8 group winners would be Panama, Canada, Curacao, TT, Haiti, Antigua, Nicaragua, St Kitts.

All El Salvador would have to do is grab 1 of 2 spots behind Mexico meaning finishing ahead of all but 1 of the following teams: USA, CR, Hon, Jam and they qualify directly. Meanwhile, Panama and Canada would have NO direct path to the World Cup and would have to win 5 2 leg series to get there. Crazy, crazy stuff.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Oh CONCACAF, you're adorable.

So, the Hex is back but instead of earning your way there by finishing in the Top 2 in your group in the previous round, the 6 teams will be determined by FIFA rankings. You might say, well ok, USA and Mexico are going to get there anyway so why make them play more games to delay the inevitable. OK, fine. But there's 9 other teams which aren't separated by much who are trying to get those last 4 places. If they get left out based on arbitrary FIFA math, their shot to make the World Cup becomes essentially impossible.

So, if you are Canada, who actually has a Bayern Munich player and in my opinion, the best collection of talent in their history (I know, still doesn't say much), they could barely miss out on the Hex due to math and then have to do the following to qualify:

- Win your 4 team group (6 games). This shouldn't be overly difficult since they will be playing lower tier teams.

- Win an 8 team 2 leg knockout tournament of the 8 group winners from the previous stage.

- Win a 2 leg playoff vs the 4th place finisher from the Hex

- Win a 2 leg playoff vs a team from South America, Asia (has not been determined yet) or New Zealand.

So, lets use the rankings right now. The Hex would be Mexico, USA, CR, Jam, Hon, El Salvador.

The 8 group winners would be Panama, Canada, Curacao, TT, Haiti, Antigua, Nicaragua, St Kitts.

All El Salvador would have to do is grab 1 of 2 spots behind Mexico meaning finishing ahead of all but 1 of the following teams: USA, CR, Hon, Jam and they qualify directly. Meanwhile, Panama and Canada would have NO direct path to the World Cup and would have to win 5 2 leg series to get there. Crazy, crazy stuff.

Canada also has a center back, Fikayo Tomori, who plays on Chelsea’s first team, essentially meaning that he is is worlds better than the USA’s Matt Miazga, who will likely never see the light of day on Chelsea’s first team and was loaned out again to some low level Euro club again for another year.

Tomori is a former Chelsea academy player of the year and was loaned out to Derby County last year, where he won their player of the year. He’s now at the senior Chelsea club, is seeing some time and poised to be their CB of the future.
https://www.chelseafc.com/en/teams/first-team/fikayo-tomori

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Canada also has a center back, Fikayo Tomori, who plays on Chelsea’s first team, essentially meaning that he is is worlds better than the USA’s Matt Miazga, who will likely never see the light of day on Chelsea’s first team and was loaned out again to some low level Euro club again for another year.

Tomori is a former Chelsea academy player of the year and was loaned out to Derby County last year, where he won their player of the year. He’s now at the senior Chelsea club, is seeing some time and poised to be their CB of the future.
https://www.chelseafc.com/en/teams/first-team/fikayo-tomori

It would seem highly unlikely he would choose to play for Canada over England at the senior level.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

It would seem highly unlikely he would choose to play for Canada over England at the senior level.

Oh yeah. My bad. He has played for England’s younger teams. I totally forgot. How does that work? Would he lose future WC eligibility with England if he decided to play in qualifying for Canada this go around?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Oh yeah. My bad. He has played for England’s younger teams. I totally forgot. How does that work? Would he lose future WC eligibility with England if he decided to play in qualifying for Canada this go around?

He can play for either team right now. Once he plays a competitive (ie not a friendly) match for 1 of them, there is no going back.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Would he lose future WC eligibility with England if he decided to play in qualifying for Canada this go around?

The thing to look for (in the near term) is the Concacaf Nations Cup games next month. If he plays for Canada then he's "stuck" with them. If they ask him to play and he says no that won't close the door, but it would be a pretty good indication that he'd rather wait out for England.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

BTW, Canada is going to have plenty of chances to make up the ground on El Salvador before the final qualification groups are decided. Canada is in League A of the Nations League in a group with the US and Cuba. They actually already beat Cuba the other day, 6-0, and play them again tonight. So while the Canadians get a chance to play and beat the US, which would really help their ranking, El Salvador is in League B. Their group includes Montserrat (current FIFA ranking, 196), Saint Lucia (172) and Dominican Republic (155). If (when) El Salvador wins those games it isn't going to help their FIFA ranking at all, but if they draw or lose one they are going to drop like a rock.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

El Salvador lost to the Dominican Republic tonight. They might not be in the top six of CONCACAF by the next time the rankings come out, let alone by next summer.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

El Salvador lost to the Dominican Republic tonight. They might not be in the top six of CONCACAF by the next time the rankings come out, let alone by next summer.

I didn't expect them to be. Just making a point. Teams 4-9 or 2-9 are similar. Yet 3 if them will get a direct path to the World Cup and the others have to win their group + 5 2-leg knockout series. Like how different are Jamaica and Honduras? When all is said and done, 1 may end up in the Hex with maybe a 20% of chance of qualifying. The other may not and have less than a 1% chance.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I didn't expect them to be. Just making a point. Teams 4-9 or 2-9 are similar. Yet 3 if them will get a direct path to the World Cup and the others have to win their group + 5 2-leg knockout series. Like how different are Jamaica and Honduras? When all is said and done, 1 may end up in the Hex with maybe a 20% of chance of qualifying. The other may not and have less than a 1% chance.

If you think there is no difference between the 2nd highest ranked team (22nd in the world) and the 9th highest ranked team (79th in the world), I don't know how to respond to that because it's so dumb.

And there isn't a lot of difference between Jamaica and Honduras, which is why one if them is 4th in the confederation and the other one is 5th.

This change is all about two things. Protecting the three countries that have been consistently better than the rest over the last 20 years, and the start up of the Nations League. They couldn't do the Nations League if they used the old qualifying system, because all the games wouldn't fit into the FIFA calendar. The Nations League is the way for lower ranked teams to move up the rankings rather than three years of qualifying matches. Because it's different, obviously there will be some disruption at first. But the idea is that in the long run more teams will be playing more meaningful games longer into the cycle. That's why almost all of the national confederations like this plan.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

@Sean Miller Fan think Canada could use this? His first Chelsea goal a few minutes ago.

Every Chelsea goal this year has been scored by an academy product. I love it.