from around #46 to #30 (#7 ACC almost dead even in numerical rating with #27 ND; #6 ACC).
Cornell game moved our Sagarin computer results
- Thread starter DC_Area_Panther
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No idea how Kenpom calculates his rankings.
Ill tell you right now Pitt has the #1 offense (in the country) at 1.284 for all power 5 conference teams as of today.
Ill also tell you Mike Young is currently the best statistical player in the entire country as of right now.
Pitt also has the number #1 assist to turnover ratio in the entire country.
And Pitt is currently 5th in win margin per game at 34 points per game, and that will also be pushing #1 in the country in 2 more days.
It's pretty simple.
It's points scored per possession and points allowed per possession adjusted for opponents.
It makes complete sense actually. Much more sense than straight up points per possession.
As an example, what should have more weight?
Scoring 1.2 points per possession against Cornell or scoring 1.1 points per possession against the #5 defensive team in the country that only surrenders .85 points per possession.
I'll stick with Pomroy.
To early in the season to be have weight metrics installed. I couldnt understand why our offensive ranking was so low in the country, as we have been flat out dominant on offense. Now I get it.
If I took this seriously I would be led to think teams like Kentucky and Duke would beat Detroit and Cornell by 50-60 points.
That's not happening.
Ive followed it for a while. But I never understood it. Im confident our offense is far better than #19. We'll see.
You may be indeed be right on, and I haven't forgetten that we scored 37 points in what I recall was 35 possessions against the Zags. Gonzaga is a top 20 defensive team according to Kempom.
We'll get a great deal more certainty after seeing how we perform against Purdue's defense. But what we have seen so far has certainly "looked" encouraging.
Pitt didn't come close to beating Detroit by 50-60, so not sure you're going out on much of a limb with that point.
KenPom also doesn't reflect games against D-II schools in its rankings, which is really what you want in something that's meant to minimize subjectivity. For purposes of offense and defense calculations, Pitt has played 2 relevant games -- one against a team that was ranked in the 200's in defense heading into the game.
I think Pitt's offense can be pretty good, and as teams begin to show their true colors as the season wears on I could see it rise, but things are so crazy right now and the season is so young that it isn't really worth getting worked up about.
KenPom also doesn't reflect games against D-II schools in its rankings, which is really what you want in something that's meant to minimize subjectivity. For purposes of offense and defense calculations, Pitt has played 2 relevant games -- one against a team that was ranked in the 200's in defense heading into the game.
I think Pitt's offense can be pretty good, and as teams begin to show their true colors as the season wears on I could see it rise, but things are so crazy right now and the season is so young that it isn't really worth getting worked up about.
Also, you've made your belief known about the notion about needing to "outscoring" our opponents to win, while I've maintained how much our defense needs to improve from last year. If we can keep our defense around #30, where it is now on Pomeroy, then we'll be on really good shape if our offense is a top 20 offense or better.
So you think shooting 50% against St. Joes is the same as shooting 50% against Duke?
Pitt's offense finished 30th last year for the entire season on Pomeroy's rankings.
And our offense right now is light years ahead of last year.
If you need to wait a few more games for Pitt to move up in Pomeroys rankings, that's fine.
My eyes tell me the way we move the ball and score is what I need to know.
I really do not need any statistical measure at this point to tell me our offense is really good with what the rest of the country has to offer, and that's with James Robinson holding us back at this moment in time.
I also think Duke is overrated for the other guy. They dont look like a top 5 ACC team to me right now.
What is your point? Georgetown shot 55% against Duke. Vcu shot 46%. Sienna shot 43%. And Kentucky blew Duke out of the gym. Pitts offense would light Duke up right now.
So you think Duke's defense is DII level? Maybe I didn't choose the greatest example (Kentucky would've been better), but if my point wasn't immediately obvious, you aren't very bright.
I would hope that Pitt is able to move the ball better compared to last year. The new freedom of movement initiative more or less ensures it.
I don't think there's a whole lot of value in comparing the 2 seasons. It's a different game this year compared to last. And, really, the importance is where Pitt ranks relative to other teams in a given year. Not where Pitt ranks relative to previous or future versions of anybody.
Right now, I see no value in trying to figure out which offense looks the best against the least woefully overmatched team. Pitt isn't playing their best rotations right now, and the big boys sure as hell aren't either.
I don't think there's a whole lot of value in comparing the 2 seasons. It's a different game this year compared to last. And, really, the importance is where Pitt ranks relative to other teams in a given year. Not where Pitt ranks relative to previous or future versions of anybody.
Right now, I see no value in trying to figure out which offense looks the best against the least woefully overmatched team. Pitt isn't playing their best rotations right now, and the big boys sure as hell aren't either.
-No, I dont think Duke's defense is D2 level. But that doesn't justify the point I am making that I think Pitt would score with ease against Duke. Purdue's defense is ranked around 10th in the country right now. We'll see if they slow our offense down.
-I would say the stats I am using carry more weight then Pomeroy for now. If you look at raw offense and win margin per game, which is what I used,
Texas A&M just beat Gonzaga
USC beating Wichita State
Michigan State beat Kansas
Miami blew out Utah and Butler
These are a few teams with really good offenses with some of the best win margin per game and offensive efficiency numbers based off true raw stats. And they are winning the bigger games.
The ironic part about this is, Pitt is the only team in the country that statistically is this good on offense this early in the season yet doesnt have a single vote in either poll.
USC is second closest. With a win margin of 22 points per game and offensive efficency ranking of 20. They just picked off and beat Top 25 Wichita State.
Pitt has the number 1 offense for all Power 5 teams and a win margin of 34 points per game.
The point is, if Pitt is the 10th best team in the ACC and is no where close to getting just 1 vote in either poll, we shouldn't be destroying teams like this on offense.
We've played poor teams with poor defenses. We have a good offense, and it's easy for a good offense to score on bad defenses. This isn't hard.
Eventually we will have a bad game on offense against a good defensive, and I'm sure we'll get a bunch of posts about Dixon "not letting them run".
We've done zero to earn being ranked.
That and our recruiting class wasn't top 25 or anything special either. That, and previous season record/final RPI. And lastly (& most importantly), you're current year has an effect if you get votes or are ranked. Pitt doesn't have or hasn't done anything I've listed above, so they aren't ranked yet. Shouldn't take too long tho to at least be in the category of "also receiving votes" they could easily be ranked if they stay undefeated and beat Purdue.
We will see....
Go Pitt
We can agree to disagree. Its like the old school mantra that so and so didnt play anyone but destroys bad competition but they can't be good because they didn't play anyone. Football teams like Boise State, Utah and TCU are perfect examples until bowl season, then they beat the Oklahoma's and Bama's of the world and no one can can either 1) figure out why or 2) make an excuse and say that was their super bowl and the other team didnt care because they didnt play for the National Title.
-Pitt isnt ranked. Purdue is Top 15 in the country with a current Top 10 defense. Ill be interested in seeing what the Vegas spread comes out at for that game before tip off.
You are, right now, arguing about what the human polls are showing and using it as evidence to discredit a system that has Pitt ranked nowhere near 10th in the ACC and right on the cusp of being ranked.
My main point is, if you're a top 20 offense you're in around the top 5% or so in all of college basketball. With all of these teams playing a bunch of scrubs, they're going to look awesome. Even Pitt last year hit Niagara for 78 points on 62 possessions and Hawaii for 70 points on 57 possessions. Teams with good offenses are going to score a lot on bad teams. And it's not distinguishable to the naked eye.
And, it's always important to point out, scoring margin is predicated just as much on defense as it is on offense.
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