Dollars and Sense

[Fsgolfdr]

So let’s not focus on just how bad Pitt bb has been since JD’s departure , I think it’s safe to say there’s absolutely no one who would argue any different . Let’s talk the economics of a coaching change at Pitt .

Pitt owes JC roughly 15 million (gazillion) dollars payable over the next 5 yrs .
If Pitt sells their average full season ticket plans for $1500.00 /per ( with donation ) the first 2000 ( season tickets ) sold for each of the next 5 yrs is used just to pay for JC’s salary if they fire him .

Pitt then somehow hires a coach who moves the needle for 4.5 million/yr , that’s an additional 3000 ST that need to be sold yearly .
This coach requires top flight assistants , now Pitt needs to come up with an additional $1.5 million for their salaries, that’s another 1000 ST that need to be sold .

So just to pay for JC , the new HC and his staff Pitt needs to sell an average of 6000 full ST for the next 5 yrs to just break even .

The $60,000 question is would Pitt sell a total of 30,000 full ST over the 5 yrs with the announcement of Rick Pitino or Bruce Pearl type as the new HC ? I don’t think so , sure there would be a bump , but I think until Pitt proves that theyre a tournament team the fans will be very hesitant to return . It’s much easier to lose a customer than to acquire one .

Hire an unknown up and comer I think Pitt could suffer a decrease in their season ticket base .

Financially Pitt is far ahead by keeping JC and hope he can turn it around in a couple yrs before they consider moving on . Unless they can find someone so passionate enough about Pitt bb to write a huge check JC is going nowhere .

 

[tps48]

If he's here next year the total season tickets sold could approach zero. Why would anyone attend?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So let’s not focus on just how bad Pitt bb has been since JD’s departure , I think it’s safe to say there’s absolutely no one who would argue any different . Let’s talk the economics of a coaching change at Pitt .

Pitt owes JC roughly 15 million (gazillion) dollars payable over the next 5 yrs .
If Pitt sells their average full season ticket plans for $1500.00 /per ( with donation ) the first 2000 ( season tickets ) sold for each of the next 5 yrs is used just to pay for JC’s salary if they fire him .

Pitt then somehow hires a coach who moves the needle for 4.5 million/yr , that’s an additional 3000 ST that need to be sold yearly .
This coach requires top flight assistants , now Pitt needs to come up with an additional $1.5 million for their salaries, that’s another 1000 ST that need to be sold .

So just to pay for JC , the new HC and his staff Pitt needs to sell an average of 6000 full ST for the next 5 yrs to just break even .

The $60,000 question is would Pitt sell a total of 30,000 full ST over the 5 yrs with the announcement of Rick Pitino or Bruce Pearl type as the new HC ? I don’t think so , sure there would be a bump , but I think until Pitt proves that theyre a tournament team the fans will be very hesitant to return . It’s much easier to lose a customer than to acquire one .

Hire an unknown up and comer I think Pitt could suffer a decrease in their season ticket base .

Financially Pitt is far ahead by keeping JC and hope he can turn it around in a couple yrs before they consider moving on . Unless they can find someone so passionate enough about Pitt bb to write a huge check JC is going nowhere .

Nobody Pitt hires, outside of a "big name" will sell any more season tickets than Capel next year. I mean, ok, if they hire the mid-major guy, maybe they sell 10 or 15 more season tickets than if Capel stayed but Pitt basketball would be so bad for so long, nobody's coming to see the mid-major guy until he starts winning.

I have said if if were me, I'd hire Miller or Pitino and make tickets super cheap to get the place full again.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

If he's here next year the total season tickets sold could approach zero. Why would anyone attend?

There already getting down to the hard core , doubt it can get much worse . It comes down to just now much money they want to lose .

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

There already getting down to the hard core , doubt it can get much worse . It comes down to just now much money they want to lose .

No matter who they hire, they would be very wise to charge significantly less than $1570 per season for clubs and $630 for lower level baseline. They have to look at the market, look at the worst drawing P6s or A10, AAAcish schools and charge even less than they are charging. They have to go back to Square 1.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Nobody Pitt hires, outside of a "big name" will sell any more season tickets than Capel next year. I mean, ok, if they hire the mid-major guy, maybe they sell 10 or 15 more season tickets than if Capel stayed but Pitt basketball would be so bad for so long, nobody's coming to see the mid-major guy until he starts winning.

I have said if if were me, I'd hire Miller or Pitino and make tickets super cheap to get the place full again.

Pitt tickets once the best value ticket in all of Pgh sports is now no bargain , especially for what your getting . Lowering the cost will attract some , but just how much money is Pitts willing to sink into the program ?

Chasing your losing investments is the best way to go broke .

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt tickets once the best value ticket in all of Pgh sports is now no bargain , especially for what your getting . Lowering the cost will attract some , but just how much money is Pitts willing to sink into the program ?

Chasing your losing investments is the best way to go broke .

Miller and Pitino offer the best immediate ROI. They would increase ticket sales and come relatively cheap. As far as Pitino goes, I wouldn't be shocked if he "Musselman'd" the portal and made the NCAAT in Year 1 or 2. But the Pitt Basketball HC requires a person of better moral character than the POTUS

 

[pittchagg]

I don’t think Pitt is too worried about money. If they decide that the right thing to do is to make a move at the end of the season, they’ll make the money work.

People said the same thing with Stallings - “oh, Pitt had to buy out Stallings’ contract, that means they’ll have to underpay for his replacement.” What ended up happening was we offered Dan Hurley a huge contract, and when Hurley took less money to go to UConn, we offered Capel a huge contract - one of the biggest in the conference. On top of that, we’ve essentially given him everything he’s asked for in terms of budget, and totally renovated the arena and practice suite in his first full offseason. Pitt hasn’t been playing poor in basketball under Lyke (they haven’t played poor in football, either), and I don’t think that’s going to change now.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I don’t think Pitt is too worried about money. If they decide that the right thing to do is to make a move at the end of the season, they’ll make the money work.

I agree. If things end up the way that many of us fear they will figure out some way to make the money work.

 

[pittchagg]

I agree. If things end up the way that many of us fear they will figure out some way to make the money work.

Yeah. I think the same is true for football - I was under the belief this offseason that Narduzzi’s seat was hotter than the conventional wisdom believed…but I also thought that it had nothing to do with whatever his buyout is or isn’t this year versus last year. They obviously believed after last year that he had the team to win some games this year, and they’ve been proven right. If football was staring down the barrel of 6-6 this year instead, I really don’t think he’d be here in January, buyout or not.

But that’s beside the point. If they decide to keep Capel after this year, it’ll be because I really think they want him to succeed and have a belief in what he’s preaching. It won’t be because of a buyout. If they don’t or if things get too bad this year, then they’ll make a move and pay someone else just as much as what they’re paying Capel or more.

 

[Thee Jackie Treehorn]

I don’t think Pitt is too worried about money. If they decide that the right thing to do is to make a move at the end of the season, they’ll make the money work.

If I remember correctly Fsgolfdr insisted almost up to the hour of Stallings' dismissal that Pitt would never fire him with so much financial obligation left on his contract. But 0-18 got us there.

We are only two games into the season here, but if Capel Year 4 proves to be as catastrophic as Stallings Year 2, if Capel gets to 0-20 or 1-19 with no recruits signed and not a faint hope of improvement, then his termination is almost inevitable, regardless of the finances.

 

[Duneaux Harm]

What is totally clear following all of the boards here that no poster has a single clue about how money works within an Athletic Department. This includes “The Special One”.

 

[Jeffburgh]

This is going to be a LONG and brutal season.

I can't see how HCJC is going to want two, three more years of it.

Just feel as though he has his rep sit down w admin and figure out what works for both sides to move on.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

If I remember correctly Fsgolfdr insisted almost up to the hour of Stallings' dismissal that Pitt would never fire him with so much financial obligation left on his contract. But 0-18 got us there.

We are only two games into the season here, but if Capel Year 4 proves to be as catastrophic as Stallings Year 2, if Capel gets to 0-20 or 1-19 with no recruits signed and not a faint hope of improvement, then his termination is almost inevitable, regardless of the finances.

Your right , I felt Pitt would never pony up nor did I expect them to try and reduce his buyout the way they did .

Thought KS had one more yr before the hammer would come down on him if they didn’t improve . Funny how looking back with Carr , Luther , JWF , PS and their recruits Pitt might have been better off not firing him when they did ! Presently they have no cause to reduce JCs buyout other than not winning and that doesn’t reduce the amount one penny .

KS was not only disliked by the fan base he was also disliked by everyone at Pitt ( especially HL ) except his players . The small fan base has lost faith in JC , but I don’t believe he’s disliked by his superiors as KS was .

More money is at stake here now and they were desperately trying to save their fan base when they fired KS that shipped has already sailed . There is no fan base .

lMO they just don’t care enough to throw another 15 or 20 million dollars at the Bb program . If they do I’ll be wrong again !

 

[levance2]

This is going to be a LONG and brutal season.

I can't see how HCJC is going to want two, three more years of it.

Just feel as though he has his rep sit down w admin and figure out what works for both sides to move on.

I have been saying for at least a year that Capel will not be fired. Of course, that was before recent events, but he's got a long coaching career and he's still pretty young. Continuing to flounder at Pitt is going to drive him into retirement like Stallings. He's better off negotiating a reduced buyout and landing at some directional school in Carolina.

If Pitt and Capel are serious about advocating for more black NCAAB coaches, you don't want to end the career of one of the few.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

This is going to be a LONG and brutal season.

I can't see how HCJC is going to want two, three more years of it.

Just feel as though he has his rep sit down w admin and figure out what works for both sides to move on.

Don’t see the man as a quitter .

 

[levance2]

KS was not only disliked by the fan base he was also disliked by everyone at Pitt ( especially HL ) except his players . The small fan base has lost faith in JC , but I don’t believe he’s disliked by his superiors as KS was .

I think this is really the most important point. Stallings was never liked here, especially once his idiot boss left, but Stallings' heel turn was really only after his team of misfit toys took the court.

I think most people respect Capel as a person, maybe due to his own puffery and salesmanship, but he has a really fine line to walk going forward to avoid alienating everyone during this incredibly difficult season. More comments about his "building a mansion" and BS like that is not going to endear him with a 3-17 record.

He better be pulling a Ted Lasso and bringing breakfast treats to Lyke every morning.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

I have been saying for at least a year that Capel will not be fired. Of course, that was before recent events, but he's got a long coaching career and he's still pretty young. Continuing to flounder at Pitt is going to drive him into retirement like Stallings. He's better off negotiating a reduced buyout and landing at some directional school in Carolina.

If Pitt and Capel are serious about advocating for more black NCAAB coaches, you don't want to end the career of one of the few.

Whose going to hire a guy who quits ?

 

[Chescat]

This is going to be a LONG and brutal season.

I can't see how HCJC is going to want two, three more years of it.

Just feel as though he has his rep sit down w admin and figure out what works for both sides to move on.

In a rational world this is
exactly what would and
should happen. As we all
know, college athletics,
$$$$, and coaching hires
do not fit a rational profile.

One thing I find interesting
is Pitt hired men's and women's
soccer coaches who were well
known national winners. SMF
has called Vidovitch the Saban
of college soccer. Now, I fully
realize their salaries do not
compare to football and Bball,
but those two coaches I
would assume are at the top
of their $$ relative fields. Pitt
went after them and paid
them. I don't know salaries of
volleyball, but they ponied
up the $$$ to keep him here.
I'd say the same for wrestling.
Yes, different $$$, but the
intent is there.

A sit down between admin. and
Capel's rep would be good. He
gets out of here and moves on.
Dollar wise he's done well and
Pitt could move on. Capel can't
possibly be happy right now. I
see the above as a way out for
him. Hell, if I were admin, I'd
negotiate, offer less of a
buyout and let him resign
and save a little face.

Just my two cents

 

[pittchagg]

In a rational world this is
exactly what would and
should happen. As we all
know, college athletics,
$$$$, and coaching hires
do not fit a rational profile.

One thing I find interesting
is Pitt hired men's and women's
soccer coaches who were well
known national winners. SMF
has called Vidovitch the Saban
of college soccer. Now, I fully
realize their salaries do not
compare to football and Bball,
but those two coaches I
would assume are at the top
of their $$ relative fields. Pitt
went after them and paid
them. I don't know salaries of
volleyball, but they ponied
up the $$$ to keep him here.
I'd say the same for wrestling.
Yes, different $$$, but the
intent is there.

A sit down between admin. and
Capel's rep would be good. He
gets out of here and moves on.
Dollar wise he's done well and
Pitt could move on. Capel can't
possibly be happy right now. I
see the above as a way out for
him. Hell, if I were admin, I'd
negotiate, offer less of a
buyout and let him resign
ad save a little face.

Just my two cents

I would wager a guess that the vast majority of Pitt’s coaches’ salaries are in the top quarter to third of the ACC, including Capel’s.

 

[PITTsburghFAN]

Dr Golf Dr - enjoy your posts alot. In her public pronouncements about KS before his last season ended, AD HL was always positive about KS, particularly how hard he was working... putting in huge hours. I agree the fanbase had turned on him, but it wasn't because he was an unlikable character. I might say that HCPN has a more abrasive persona, by far, than Stallings.

But you say that Lyke did NOT like KS... including other admin figures. Any evidence I'm missing on that??

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Whose going to hire a guy who quits ?

He could find his way back to Duke as an assistant coach.

 

[levance2]

Whose going to hire a guy who quits ?

Who is going to hire a guy with 6 losing seasons before he was fired from his last job?

Coaches always get a second chance somewhere, the issue is when that second chance becomes a third or fourth chance. Capel cratered OU and now cratered Pitt. You only need two points to extrapolate a line.

All he has to say is he and his wife are from NC and want to return to their home state and help enrich the lives of young black men there. NCA&T men. Brick by brick. All the same platitudes he repeats here, and they'll buy it there just like we did here. The Capel name means a lot more in NC than it does in Pittsburgh.

 

[levance2]

Whose going to hire a guy who quits ?

The irony of you posting this after Pitt hired Stallings away from Vanderbilt before they got the chance to fire him is *chef's kiss*

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Who is going to hire a guy with 6 losing seasons before he was fired from his last job?

Coaches always get a second chance somewhere, the issue is when that second chance becomes a third or fourth chance. Capel cratered OU and now cratered Pitt. You only need two points to extrapolate a line.

All he has to say is he and his wife are from NC and want to return to their home state and help enrich the lives of young black men there. NCA&T men. Brick by brick. All the same platitudes he repeats here, and they'll buy it there just like we did here. The Capel name means a lot more in NC than it does in Pittsburgh.

Good Point!
Maybe some connections to a place like Fayetteville St or such.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Who is going to hire a guy with 6 losing seasons before he was fired from his last job?

Coaches always get a second chance somewhere, the issue is when that second chance becomes a third or fourth chance. Capel cratered OU and now cratered Pitt. You only need two points to extrapolate a line.

All he has to say is he and his wife are from NC and want to return to their home state and help enrich the lives of young black men there. NCA&T men. Brick by brick. All the same platitudes he repeats here, and they'll buy it there just like we did here. The Capel name means a lot more in NC than it does in Pittsburgh.

Think if he’s going to resurrect his career it starts with turning Pitt into a respectable program . If he cuts bait and runs he’s just goes down as a failure as a HC and this would be the second time .

 

[pierre93]

Miller and Pitino offer the best immediate ROI. They would increase ticket sales and come relatively cheap. As far as Pitino goes, I wouldn't be shocked if he "Musselman'd" the portal and made the NCAAT in Year 1 or 2. But the Pitt Basketball HC requires a person of better moral character than the POTUS

Not going to happen ace

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Dr Golf Dr - enjoy your posts alot. In her public pronouncements about KS before his last season ended, AD HL was always positive about KS, particularly how hard he was working... putting in huge hours. I agree the fanbase had turned on him, but it wasn't because he was an unlikable character. I might say that HCPN has a more abrasive persona, by far, than Stallings.

But you say that Lyke did NOT like KS... including other admin figures. Any evidence I'm missing on that??

My understanding is that he never showed up for university functions that he was supposed to attend .

 

[pierre93]

Bring back Jamie and he'll bring back instant credibility and ticket sales would increase dramatically. Stranger things have happened H2P!!!

 

[levance2]

Think if he’s going to resurrect his career it starts with turning Pitt into a respectable program . If he cuts bait and runs he’s just goes down as a failure as a HC and this would be the second time .

Tubby Smith and Todd Graham have spent their entire careers job hopping. A bunch of schools are going to turned off by that, but a whole lot don't care.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Bring back Jamie and he'll bring back instant credibility and ticket sales would increase dramatically. Stranger things have happened H2P!!!

Due to some family issues, the Jamie ship has sailed, imo. Can’t imagine him going further away from LA.

What about Ryan Odom Pierre? Interested in your thoughts. We talked about him the other day as a possibility, has history with ACC and in its recruiting territories, big win with Utah State over Richmond the other night and would definitely take it for like 2 million. We could (and have) done a lot worse. This is also his 3rd head coaching position, albeit one at D2, so he has been a head coach for a while.

 

[pierre93]

Due to some family issues, the Jamie ship has sailed, imo. Can’t imagine him going further away from LA.

What about Ryan Odom Pierre? Interested in your thoughts. We talked about him the other day as a possibility, has history with ACC and in its recruiting territories, big win with Utah State over Richmond the other night and would definitely take it for like 2 million. We could (and have) done a lot worse. This is also his 3rd head coaching position, albeit one at D2, so he has been a head coach for a while.

Give me Danny Sancomb from Cal U insider. But I'd welcome Odom in a heartbeat!!! HL has to make a move sooner than later. Also JC should've never, ever hired his brother. Susie hired her sister and see how that went for her.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Kim English (George Mason)
I would be keeping a real close eye on him and how he does this year. He checks off a lot of boxes.

 

[pierre93]

Kim English (George Mason)
I would be keeping a real close eye on him and how he does this year. He checks off a lot of boxes.

Good thought Sauce

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Give me Danny Sancomb from Cal U insider. But I'd welcome Odom in a heartbeat!!! HL has to make a move sooner than later. Also JC should've never, ever hired his brother. Susie hired her sister and see how that went for her.

I like Danny a lot, but D2 to the ACC is too big of a jump and I’m not sure he could hire the necessary staff to win here.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Kim English (George Mason)
I would be keeping a real close eye on him and how he does this year. He checks off a lot of boxes.

One year of head coaching experience would scare me just as much as hiring a wildcard assistant. I like Odom because this would be (most likely) his 3rd time upgrading a program not known for great hoops.

 

[pittjas]

Due to some family issues, the Jamie ship has sailed, imo. Can’t imagine him going further away from LA.

What about Ryan Odom Pierre? Interested in your thoughts. We talked about him the other day as a possibility, has history with ACC and in its recruiting territories, big win with Utah State over Richmond the other night and would definitely take it for like 2 million. We could (and have) done a lot worse. This is also his 3rd head coaching position, albeit one at D2, so he has been a head coach for a while.

I’m pretty open to anyone, I think there are a ton of good coaches out there all across the different conferences. A bunch who most have us haven’t heard of.

The only condition IMO should be that whoever it is has a distinct style/philosophy, whether that’s play style or recruiting. It could be someone who’s going to kill the transfer market (like Mussellman), someone who’s going to recruit to shoot, recruit to defend, someone who’s going to hire AAU/good assts to recruit, etc.

Just something that makes us stand out at Pitt because that’s what drives me nuts about Capel. We have no identity. At all. Whether recruiting or playing. We just try to recruit the best players like he’s still at Duke…

 

[pierre93]

I like Danny a lot, but D2 to the ACC is too big of a jump and I’m not sure he could hire the necessary staff to win here.

Oh I know just throwing a name out of the ordinary just being creative insider

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

One year of head coaching experience would scare me just as much as hiring a wildcard assistant. I like Odom because this would be (most likely) his 3rd time upgrading a program not known for great hoops.

You either have it or you don’t. You are straying off the path. A good, young, intelligent, coach who can recruit and HAS to win is who we should hire. Like I said - I would be keeping a real close eye on how he does this year.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

You either have it or you don’t. You are straying off the path. A good, young, intelligent, coach who can recruit and HAS to win is who we should hire. Like I said - I would be keeping a real close eye on how he does this year.

Yeah I agree with the young promising coach part, but I think Lyke will go towards a more proven commodity than you or I might. I want someone who wants the Kentucky job eventually.