ESPN Bubble Watch (ACC)

[JD1976]

ACC​

Locks​

North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke Blue Devils

Should be in​

Clemson Tigers
When Bubble Watch last discussed Clemson, we said lock status for Brad Brownell's team was "imminent." Allow us to more be specific. If the Tigers win at home in their next game against NC State, they're a lock. Clemson has now won three in a row, including road victories at North Carolina and Syracuse. Though the Tigers have made fewer than 33% of their 3s on the ACC season, over the last three wins that figure has been 40%. (updated Feb. 14)

Virginia Cavaliers
When last we discussed Virginia here, Bubble Watch noted the Cavaliers were playing good D and catching the good breaks often earned by good teams. Both halves of that trend went missing when UVA lost at home to Pitt by 11. Tony Bennett's team allowed the Panthers to score 1.25 points per possession, the highest total any opponent has recorded since January 2022. Pitt connected on 14 3s and pulled down 11 offensive boards. Virginia's won enough games to stay here in "Should be in," but this defeat undermines what was previously projected as a No. 8 seed. (updated Feb. 13)

Work to do​

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The thing about losing at Duke by eight as the Demon Deacons just did is that you stay more or less right where you are on the bubble. Sure, your metrics aren't going to drop if you lose a relatively close road game to a Bubble Watch lock. But teams competing with you for a bid are playing this type of game as well, and some of your rivals are winning these tough road games. Wake Forest entered the contest at Cameron Indoor projected as being right on the cut line. Another opportunity to move up now awaits in a visit to Virginia. (updated Feb.12)

Pittsburgh Panthers
When the Panthers won at Virginia by 11, the numbers on their team sheet spiked to the point where this is clearly a bubble profile. Not an at-large profile, necessarily, at least not yet. But at 16-8, Pitt claims road wins against the Cavaliers and Duke. The remaining schedule consists of road games at Wake Forest and Clemson plus five outings against opponents not currently projected to make the field of 68. In conference play the Panthers devote a higher share of their attempts to tries from beyond the arc than any ACC team. Against UVA, those tries were on target 14 times. (updated Feb. 14)

 

[DT_PITT]

ACC​

Locks​

North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke Blue Devils

Should be in​

Clemson Tigers
When Bubble Watch last discussed Clemson, we said lock status for Brad Brownell's team was "imminent." Allow us to more be specific. If the Tigers win at home in their next game against NC State, they're a lock. Clemson has now won three in a row, including road victories at North Carolina and Syracuse. Though the Tigers have made fewer than 33% of their 3s on the ACC season, over the last three wins that figure has been 40%. (updated Feb. 14)

Virginia Cavaliers
When last we discussed Virginia here, Bubble Watch noted the Cavaliers were playing good D and catching the good breaks often earned by good teams. Both halves of that trend went missing when UVA lost at home to Pitt by 11. Tony Bennett's team allowed the Panthers to score 1.25 points per possession, the highest total any opponent has recorded since January 2022. Pitt connected on 14 3s and pulled down 11 offensive boards. Virginia's won enough games to stay here in "Should be in," but this defeat undermines what was previously projected as a No. 8 seed. (updated Feb. 13)

Work to do​

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The thing about losing at Duke by eight as the Demon Deacons just did is that you stay more or less right where you are on the bubble. Sure, your metrics aren't going to drop if you lose a relatively close road game to a Bubble Watch lock. But teams competing with you for a bid are playing this type of game as well, and some of your rivals are winning these tough road games. Wake Forest entered the contest at Cameron Indoor projected as being right on the cut line. Another opportunity to move up now awaits in a visit to Virginia. (updated Feb.12)

Pittsburgh Panthers
When the Panthers won at Virginia by 11, the numbers on their team sheet spiked to the point where this is clearly a bubble profile. Not an at-large profile, necessarily, at least not yet. But at 16-8, Pitt claims road wins against the Cavaliers and Duke. The remaining schedule consists of road games at Wake Forest and Clemson plus five outings against opponents not currently projected to make the field of 68. In conference play the Panthers devote a higher share of their attempts to tries from beyond the arc than any ACC team. Against UVA, those tries were on target 14 times. (updated Feb. 14)

There we go!!

See @PittPoker … we are making progress … but we aren’t there yet.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

There we go!!

See @PittPoker … we are making progress … but we aren’t there yet.

As I posted with 11 games left in "Remaining Schedule" there was a path and it is definitely doable. They have done some of the hardest parts. Wake could be an elimination game between the two if we drop an unexpected one, though.

 

[PittPoker]

There we go!!

See @PittPoker … we are making progress … but we aren’t there yet.

Still think Lunardi hates us though😉

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Still think Lunardi hates us though😉

Who cares? Lunardi sucks lol. the 98th most accurate bracketologist.

 

[Pittisit4me]

Still think Lunardi hates us though😉

Screw that fat faced turd!

 

[DT_PITT]

Still think Lunardi hates us though😉

This is a much better resource that you should check daily (and Lunurdi is one of the many listed).

Apparently, all of the bracketologists still hate us at this point.

Bracket Project

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

This is a much better resource that you should check daily (and Lunurdi is one of the many listed).

Apparently, all of the bracketologists still hate us at this point.

Bracket Project

I don't blame them right now. I doubt I'd have Pitt in at this point. All that means is nobody has Pitt IN the field. They dont list First Four Out there. We are all projecting Pitt to get in if we go 6-1. We have more to do to leapfrog those teams. That's why you arent seeing us in any brackets. Our resume isnt good enough at this moment.

 

[DT_PITT]

I don't blame them right now. I doubt I'd have Pitt in at this point. All that means is nobody has Pitt IN the field. They dont list First Four Out there. We are all projecting Pitt to get in if we go 6-1. We have more to do to leapfrog those teams. That's why you arent seeing us in any brackets. Our resume isnt good enough at this moment.

Completely agree.

 

[FireballZ]

Why is the Big East getting so much love? Their NET numbers aren't vastly better than the ACC. St Johns, Butler, Xavier, Villanova, SHU and Providence are all very mediocre teams that are getting a lot of bracket mentions.

 

[FireballZ]

Why is the Big East getting so much love? Their NET numbers aren't vastly better than the ACC. St Johns, Butler, Xavier, Villanova, SHU and Providence are all very mediocre teams that are getting a lot of bracket mentions.

@PittPoker - What's so funny, Scorch? You think those mediocre teams have shown so much more than the mediocre middle teams in the ACC like Pitt, Wake, Miami, VT that are rarely included in the bracket projections?

I'd be too embarrassed to even show up on these boards, if I had made some of the statements that you've made, so I at least give you credit for not constantly changing handles like others do.

 

[Blair_45]

I don't blame them right now. I doubt I'd have Pitt in at this point. All that means is nobody has Pitt IN the field. They dont list First Four Out there. We are all projecting Pitt to get in if we go 6-1. We have more to do to leapfrog those teams. That's why you arent seeing us in any brackets. Our resume isnt good enough at this moment.

It’s good enough to be I think in the next four out at least I think at this point over some of the teams that are on there now. If Pitt wins against Louisville Saturday like we all expect and then wins at Wake next Tuesday it will be a complete and total joke if Wake is still ahead of them with Pitt sweeping both games. I really believe if Pitt beats Louisville and wins at Wake next week they will be in a lot of brackets come next week this time. They won’t be able to ignore wins at Duke, Virginia, NC State and a sweep of Wake Forest.

 

[PittMBA]

This is a much better resource that you should check daily (and Lunurdi is one of the many listed).

Apparently, all of the bracketologists still hate us at this point.

Bracket Project

It’s a great site - but definitely has a bit of lag effect. Not all the brackets update daily -
And doesn’t aggregate the bubble.

Kinda a feel like PItt will start showing up in a few if they win this weekend -

 

[PittMan 72]

Who cares? Lunardi sucks lol. the 98th most accurate bracketologist.

This is what a lot of people seem to fail to understand and misinterpret.. Lunardi is a cartoon. A person who has somehow been able to self-promote himself into a position where he makes a year-round living GUESSING about college basketball and the NCAA tournament.

Just because ESPN gives him a forum and a bully pulpit to make his proclamations doesn’t mean he is an authority or has decision making powers.

Pitt clearly still has a lot of work to do. The OOC performance wasn’t great. The slow start to the ACC schedule hurt. That has made their margins for error thinner.

Keep winning. If things are analyzed and evaluated reasonably, Pitt shouldn't have to win then all to get in. But they can’t afford much in the way of slip-ups, either.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Why is the Big East getting so much love? Their NET numbers aren't vastly better than the ACC. St Johns, Butler, Xavier, Villanova, SHU and Providence are all very mediocre teams that are getting a lot of bracket mentions.

Why is the Big East getting so much love? Their NET numbers aren't vastly better than the ACC. St Johns, Butler, Xavier, Villanova, SHU and Providence are all very mediocre teams that are getting a lot of bracket mentions.

I don’t know man. Anecdotally it felt like to me in the OOC part of the season, the Big East and Big 12 were two conferences that seemed to outperform the ACC. Although the Big East is a bit top heavy. My problem always lies with the B1G and to a lesser extent the SEC.

 

[PittMan 72]

I don’t know man. Anecdotally it felt like to me in the OOC part of the season, the Big East and Big 12 were two conferences that seemed to outperform the ACC. Although the Big East is a bit top heavy. My problem always lies with the B1G and to a lesser extent the SEC.

ACC is 9-3 vs Big 12 in OOC head to head games this season.

So where does this claim saying they “outperformed” the ACC come from? How is it validated?

 

[Fk_Pitt]

ACC is 9-3 vs Big 12 in OOC head to head games this season.

So where does this claim saying they “outperformed” the ACC come from? How is it validated?

Overall OCC body of work.

 

[PittMan 72]

Overall OCC body of work.

Subjective opinions.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Why is the Big East getting so much love? Their NET numbers aren't vastly better than the ACC. St Johns, Butler, Xavier, Villanova, SHU and Providence are all very mediocre teams that are getting a lot of bracket mentions.

Total guess. They won their November/December games. Your conference NET is decided by Dec 15 or so. So you better be good early and win those games at Disney or Mexico or on an aircraft carrier at some local YMCA who rented their gym to the Gazelle Group for a tournament.