2 toughest games left according to them:
vs Clemson (54.5% chance)
vs UNC (71.6%)
vs Clemson (54.5% chance)
vs UNC (71.6%)
ESPN's win probabilities say we go 11-1
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
There’s a big difference between being favored in each game and being projected to win them all.
Thanks ESPN for jinxing us and now guaranteeing pitting. Maybe sports illustrated can put the team on the cover of an issue, or bring game day to Pittsburgh.
Actually the worst would be giving us a night game. I can only remember winning 2 Saturday night games (vs ND and VT Fitz) at Heinz
I would be happy with 9-3 and a bowl win, 10-3 but looking at the schedule we are capable of winning them all.
I've said this in another thread, but I'm pretty certain after either the UNC loss or the UCF loss in 2018, the very same ESPN win probability predictor said Pitt was going to lose all remaining games, for a 2-10 finish. Didn't happen -- we proceeded to win the coastal, including a streak where we won 5 of 6 with the one loss being a close one to a playoff qualifying ND team. I don't trust that ESPN predictor at all.
Does anyone really think we are the 10th best team in the country? We have played 5 games so far. Two of them were against UMass (arguably the worst FBS team) and New Hampshire (an FCS team). Our margin of victory was huge in those ones which I am sure props us up in this computer algorithm. Against the teams more comparable to what we will play the rest of the year, we went 2-1. I would think that the reasonable expectation is that we will win 66% of the rest of our games, so we are looking at going 5-2 or 4-3 the rest of the way.
Does anyone really think we are the 10th best team in the country? We have played 5 games so far. Two of them were against UMass (arguably the worst FBS team) and New Hampshire (an FCS team). Our margin of victory was huge in those ones which I am sure props us up in this computer algorithm. Against the teams more comparable to what we will play the rest of the year, we went 2-1. I would think that the reasonable expectation is that we will win 66% of the rest of our games, so we are looking at going 5-2 or 4-3 the rest of the way.
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I think anything less than 9-3, with our current record and remaining schedule, would be a big disappointment. I could see us going 1-1 in the next two games but I don't see any games we should lose in the following five. I just assume another loss in there somewhere. I could see us being 7-2 going into the UNC game and losing that one.
I said 7-5 before the season so I'll stick with that.
Losses to:
Clemson
UNC (still hard to picture us beating them)
Miami (same)
@ UVa (Armstrong Western Michigan's us)
So you are saying there is a chance? There is a lot of football left to be played. Glad we are catching Clemson sooner than later as they should improve by the end of the year with the talent they have? Curious how Pickett handles the attention. If he thrives and ups his game a run is there. WMU was hopefully a wake-up call that they cannot sleep on anyone. WMU also predicted to be like 9-3 by FPI... Pitt always seem to catch non-conference teams on their great years. Still no excuse for the loss, but may not be as bad when all is said and done.
Honestly, I think the same thing. And typically I roll my eyes at your predictions.
statistics aren't high math. i don't know why this is so difficult to understand.
7-5 could happen. But that is 3-4 down the stretch against a soft schedule. I think the coaching seat would have to be red hot if we do that with this offense and QB.
I'm not so worried about the offense. They won't be able to keep up 52pts per game, but I think they'll be fine overall.
I worry about the D and the secondary getting crushed. Plus mentally I'm just programmed to expect 7 or 8 wins. You look at Western Michigan. That should be in the win column.
You look at our history with Miami, and especially UNC (Thursday night too). We just crap the bed against them every year. And then even though Clemson is down, they are still Clemson.
VT on the road is always trouble as well. The schedule may be "soft", but Pitt is very similar to the Miami's, UNC's, VTs of the world. Can look like world beaters one week and then have a head scratching loss the next.
There is an article on the athletic today pretty much saying this and this is the reason the ACC is where it is. Outside of Clemson the last few years, literally every team is built like that. They go out and look great one week, and then lose a crap game the next. There is no consistency. There is no "Tier 2" like the other conferences have, especially on a consistent basis. And I don't see that changing for any ACC team, including Pitt without seeing more.
Espn actually has us favored in each game but with a median outcome of 9.8 wins.
I mean I'd take it, but you're doing this wrong.
Pitt fans are bi-polar. Two weeks ago the sky was falling. Always best to tap the breaks and look at the big picture.
- Doubt we can keep scoring at this pace, however it looks like the offense will remain good enough
- Doubt UNC, Miami, and Clemson are as bad as they've looked so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get their sh!t together.
- I think the Pitt defense will continue to improve
The last 7 games will be interesting for sure. Can't have a let down at VT, that game is very important. 4 of our last 6 are at home and the away games are Duke and Syracuse. 5-2 down the stretch likely wins the coastal.
- Doubt we can keep scoring at this pace, however it looks like the offense will remain good enough
- Doubt UNC, Miami, and Clemson are as bad as they've looked so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get their sh!t together.
- I think the Pitt defense will continue to improve
The last 7 games will be interesting for sure. Can't have a let down at VT, that game is very important. 4 of our last 6 are at home and the away games are Duke and Syracuse. 5-2 down the stretch likely wins the coastal.
This is the year. This is the chance. We can change the Pitt narrative this year. A high powered offense can erase a lot of blunders. On defense we used to have to play a near perfect game to win which is never sustainable not even for Alabama. College offenses are too good now, but with this offense and a much better defense than our high powered Matt Canada offense had we can actually compete. There are alot of over ranked teams with crappy offenses that are going to get exposed soon. Locally it also helps that the Steelers suck so people are more inclined to tune into a high powered winning football team. Slide over folks I feel some bandwagon passengers about to board.
I still don't feel like our running game is good enough for the offense to carry us to an 11-1 season. Some defensive coordinator is going to figure out that they should play the nickel package the whole game because our running game deserves little respect, that they need to be double teaming Addison, and that they must come up with ways to pressure Pickett and get him out of his comfort zone. Once somebody does that, can Mack and the other receivers save the day and lead us to continue the big scoring numbers? Can the O-line and other blockers get the running game going somehow if the defense is playing with an extra DB? Can the defense win a game for us by keeping the opponent's scoring low? Those are big questions in my mind.
Look no further than the GT game. Their defense is essentially a nickel defense and Pitt ran the ball on them reasonably well (at least well for Pitt).
On the long throw to Mack, 3 of the GT DBs were focused on Addison. Mack finished with 5 catches for 121 yards.
check out these Power Rankings.
I have seen Pitt as high as 2. but these are hilarious.
stateoflouisville.com
I have seen Pitt as high as 2. but these are hilarious.
College Football: Week 6 ACC Power Rankings
The ACC had no shortage of exciting storylines in week 6 as the top of the conference begins to separate itself from the pack.
stateoflouisville.com
ESPN's win probabilities say we go 11-1
They say no such thing...that would require an additional computation (ie, probability that Pitt goes 11-1)....I do enjoy American mathematical statistical illiteracy though...
check out these Power Rankings.
I have seen Pitt as high as 2. but these are hilarious.
College Football: Week 6 ACC Power Rankings
The ACC had no shortage of exciting storylines in week 6 as the top of the conference begins to separate itself from the pack.
That is fairly hilarious but I guess understandable as there is still a lot to shake out. Interesting that they have four of the teams we have yet to play listed lower than us. I'd put us ahead of UNC as well.
I really don't know, the bend but don't break defense scares me. Due for a break. Maybe something like a WTF loss against Syracuse, but then beating Clemson, VA & UNC, but falling to Miami in another WTF game. 9-3 seems realistic but anything from 7-5 to 10-2 could be a possibility.
But it is always good in CFB nowadays to have an offense that can win a 42-35 type shootout game which is what we seem to have this year.
We would be 12-1 with the ACC championship win. If that happens, Pickett is likely a Heisman finalist and TV ratings like offense, which could potentially put Pitt at 4 (68% chance of making it if that happens per playoff simulator). A 2 loss SEC team is out and I think Georgia will lose to UF or maybe UK, Auburn could pull an upset, or UT or GT could pull a once a year type upset. It depends on the other one loss teams. SEC, B12, and B1G are only P5 to possibly put up undefeated teams (that can change this weekend with Oklahoma vs. Texas). B1G also has their round robin left of undefeated teams and if PSU beats Iowa, B1G will likely not have an undefeated champ. Cinci still has SMU and likely Houston. BYU could make a run, but has USC to finish the year. ND will likely have at least one more loss. Would help for UM to win the B1G and WMU to win the MAC with 10+ wins.
Interactive: Create a path to the College Football Playoff for top contenders
With help from the Allstate Playoff Predictor, you can play out the 2022 season and see how likely it is that top contenders will reach the College Football Playoff.
www.espn.com
Unless players get injured, the passing offense is going to keep rolling. It's for real. Hopefully the running game can progress and the defense can do better in their pass assignments and also tackle better.
WMU was a real disappointment, but maybe this team can overcome their self inflicted injury.
WMU was a real disappointment, but maybe this team can overcome their self inflicted injury.
That's another thing, used to be that a great player on a non TOP team could win the Heisman. When did playing for a TOP TEAM become a Heisman criteria.... Pickett is likely a Heisman finalist and TV ratings like offense,
Interactive: Create a path to the College Football Playoff for top contenders
With help from the Allstate Playoff Predictor, you can play out the 2022 season and see how likely it is that top contenders will reach the College Football Playoff.www.espn.com
Yes, the ESPN predictions taken in aggregate predicts at least one loss, and a strong chance of there being two losses out of the remaining 7 games.
So, 9-3 or 10-2 is more realistic than 11-1.
So, 9-3 or 10-2 is more realistic than 11-1.
How nice would it be if ND suffered a loss this weekend at the hands of VT. That would make our VT game the following weekend a relatively high profile matchup!
I thought 7-5 before season but my game day thoughts so far have all been wrong.
Still think Clem gets enough stops, D doesn't get enough v NC and Pitt never beats Miami.
VT is the most interesting after ND and Pitt bye.
I have to keep betting there's another shoe to drop until it actually doesn't I guess.
Still think Clem gets enough stops, D doesn't get enough v NC and Pitt never beats Miami.
VT is the most interesting after ND and Pitt bye.
I have to keep betting there's another shoe to drop until it actually doesn't I guess.
Pitt fans are terrible. That's all
Look ahead and we'll barely be bowl eligible. No way we go 11-1. A lot of suckers out there. Vegas makes money on people believing the last thing they saw and discounting the body of work and analytics. Sucker bet. Anybody want to bet me 11-1? I'll take the under all day long and enjoy dinner in my new house that used to be yours.
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