ADVERTISEMENT

Fifteen games into the season

Chairman Moe

All Conference
Nov 4, 2003
5,400
1,537
113
Just around the corner from Paradise
Does anyone (other than me!) recall this comment I made after the Missouri game on Nov 29?

Quote: "As a final thought, it amazes me how certain posters on this board are now "convinced" that this year's team will not be an NCAAT team, or perhaps even, and NIT team. They've played 7 games and are 5-2. The potential is there as well as (to a sometimes hidden degree) the talent. The game on Sunday vs Clemson is not one where Pitt will be favored nor expected to win. Again, 1 game out of 20 conference games. I am going to at least give this team 15 games into the season to personally decide whether they are tournament worthy. 10-5 or better will be encouraging"

So true to my word, I will respond:

We are 10-5, so this is at the margin of being "encouraging" (for post season). Should we replicate the renaming 15 games and end the regular season 20-10 we will certainly be no worse than an NIT team

As others have noted, Pitt may well have to score 80+ PPG to win in ACC Conference play

The freshmen are growing up before our eyes. Scary scene late in today's game when Bub was spread out in the floor; obviously have to keep he and Jaland healthy

The twins will do well when they are playing vs a less physical team, and will struggle if they're pushed around

Fede needs to revert to his better form of last year

Zack Austin seems to be coming into form; need him to score 12-15 per game minimum

Still (to me) no obvious leader on this team. Lots of guys who (when performing at their best) "look the part", but there is no player (ala Knight, Fields, Burton) that is a floor general, IMO. Hope that changes but I don't see it after 15 games

How in the name of Naismith does a team shoot 11-24 FT's one week and 19-21 the next? Aside from the first miss today (Lowe) every free throw was perfect. We didn't miss until long after Ryan Burr gave up on the announcer's jinx ... but seriously, does Pitt really want to have we fans wonder every game about FT's? 🤪

Long story short: I'm still riding a seesaw as to the post-season chances of this Pitt team. Should we stay healthy and win somewhere north of 18 games, we get into the NIT, minimum. But unlike some Pantherlair posters (whoSe naMe is Forgotten) I ain't gonna lose sleep over it, nor keep track of where we are with NET or kenpom or Quad wins or any other metric used ...

H2P!
 
Leader of the team? I think Jaland can develop into that leader. He can sure run this offense.

80+ PPG is what it will take to have a chance to win in the ACC. No guarantees, that's for sure. At least with 80+ points, we'll be in there as long as our defense can hold up. That's what will win us games this year....a better defense. All other things being equal, when teams like Pitt play the better teams, their defense will carry them to give them a chance at winning.

Frankly, I don't see us winning 10 more ACC games. Even 8. Possibly 6 more to get us to 16 total wins. That won't get us into any tournaments. The ACC is a lot tougher than the OOC we played.
 
Pitt only has 4 games left against quad 3 (Cuse, FSU) and 4 (Lville, ND). They need Leggett back off bench and continued strong play.
 
Looking precarious to get to 20, but still not convinced what the level of ACC is yet.
Leggett gonna have to play the rest of league games like he did vs the exhibitions.
Fede has to at least get back to last year.
 
Does anyone (other than me!) recall this comment I made after the Missouri game on Nov 29?

Quote: "As a final thought, it amazes me how certain posters on this board are now "convinced" that this year's team will not be an NCAAT team, or perhaps even, and NIT team. They've played 7 games and are 5-2. The potential is there as well as (to a sometimes hidden degree) the talent. The game on Sunday vs Clemson is not one where Pitt will be favored nor expected to win. Again, 1 game out of 20 conference games. I am going to at least give this team 15 games into the season to personally decide whether they are tournament worthy. 10-5 or better will be encouraging"

So true to my word, I will respond:

We are 10-5, so this is at the margin of being "encouraging" (for post season). Should we replicate the renaming 15 games and end the regular season 20-10 we will certainly be no worse than an NIT team

As others have noted, Pitt may well have to score 80+ PPG to win in ACC Conference play

The freshmen are growing up before our eyes. Scary scene late in today's game when Bub was spread out in the floor; obviously have to keep he and Jaland healthy

The twins will do well when they are playing vs a less physical team, and will struggle if they're pushed around

Fede needs to revert to his better form of last year

Zack Austin seems to be coming into form; need him to score 12-15 per game minimum

Still (to me) no obvious leader on this team. Lots of guys who (when performing at their best) "look the part", but there is no player (ala Knight, Fields, Burton) that is a floor general, IMO. Hope that changes but I don't see it after 15 games

How in the name of Naismith does a team shoot 11-24 FT's one week and 19-21 the next? Aside from the first miss today (Lowe) every free throw was perfect. We didn't miss until long after Ryan Burr gave up on the announcer's jinx ... but seriously, does Pitt really want to have we fans wonder every game about FT's? 🤪

Long story short: I'm still riding a seesaw as to the post-season chances of this Pitt team. Should we stay healthy and win somewhere north of 18 games, we get into the NIT, minimum. But unlike some Pantherlair posters (whoSe naMe is Forgotten) I ain't gonna lose sleep over it, nor keep track of where we are with NET or kenpom or Quad wins or any other metric used ...

H2P!
Think they can finish strong too. But, to be fair, the 15 game sample you're using included 7 non P6 opponents. Pitt's record v. P6 opponents is 3-5. Remising schedule is exclusively P6 opponents now.
 
shshshshshsh...we weren't going to tell him.....
I knew; my original point was that 7 games was too few to declare that "Pitt is not a tournament team". A 10-5 record (for me) puts Pitt in a position where they can be a tournament team. 6-7 ACC losses before the ACCT will make them a borderline NIT team; any more than that? Win the ACCT. miracles happen. You (like I) are probably old enough to remember the 1980 Winter Olympics ...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Parkview57
A 10-5 record (for me) puts Pitt in a position where they can be a tournament team.
No doubt. The problem is that , no matter how much these young guards can dazzle or improve, the inside game weakness just seems un fixable because of the lack of personnel, to me anyway
 
I’d feel a lot better if we had beaten Missouri and SU. Those are 2 games that we should have won. That would have us at 12-3 and 2-2 in conference.
 
So 10-5 (1-3) with 4 remaining against Q3 and Q4. Beat Cuse, fsu, nd, and Lville again and that gets them to 14-1 versus quad 3 and 4. Last year they were 15-2 with a quad 4 loss. That would be 14 wins. Right now they are 0-3 vs q1 and 0-1 vs q2. If they win at GT, home vs wake, home vs bc, home vs VT, and home vs nc state that would be 5 Q2 wins. They would be 5-1 in q2. They were 3-5 last year. If they can win at Virginia, Wake, and Nc state that would be 3 Q1. They were 4-4 last year and would be 3-7 this year if they lose to Duke twice, Clemson, and Miami. So 7-9 q1/2 last year vs 8-8 this year. It’s possible. Not easy, but a win at home Tuesday would make things a lot easier.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chairman Moe
It’s still hard to get a feel for this conference, and it’s a long season. It is unfortunate that of Pitt’s first 7 conference opponents, it seems that 4 are teams that will likely finish at least top 5 in the conference.

I agree we should pause and see how they do against the other “middle” (however you define that) teams in the conference.

In the short term - they need to beat Syracuse at home and ideally upset Duke in 1 of the 2. Won’t be easy, but even NIT teams should be able to knock off a ranked opponent at least once I feel. Sort of feels like most of the remaining games will be toss-ups.
 
I’d feel a lot better if we had beaten Missouri and SU. Those are 2 games that we should have won. That would have us at 12-3 and 2-2 in conference.
It has become distressingly obvious that the way to beat Pitt is to outmuscle on the inside. Every ACC coach knows it and will emphasize that approach. That is exactly what Missouri and Syracuse did.
 
It’s still hard to get a feel for this conference, and it’s a long season. It is unfortunate that of Pitt’s first 7 conference opponents, it seems that 4 are teams that will likely finish at least top 5 in the conference.

I agree we should pause and see how they do against the other “middle” (however you define that) teams in the conference.

In the short term - they need to beat Syracuse at home and ideally upset Duke in 1 of the 2. Won’t be easy, but even NIT teams should be able to knock off a ranked opponent at least once I feel. Sort of feels like most of the remaining games will be toss-ups.

UNC & Duke are class of the league. Miami, Wake and Clemson are probably the next tier, with Clemson a team of vets with a really low ceiling. NCSU might belong in this tier too. Jury still out, imo.

The rest of the league just isn't very good, imo. At least that's my two cents as of 1/7/24.
 
UNC & Duke are class of the league. Miami, Wake and Clemson are probably the next tier, with Clemson a team of vets with a really low ceiling. NCSU might belong in this tier too. Jury still out, imo.

The rest of the league just isn't very good, imo. At least that's my two cents as of 1/7/24.
Prefacing this like you did, as of today… I feel like Pitt is most likely to finish somewhere between 7 and 11.
 
Interesting to re-read this post and the replies, two and a half months later ... adding a few replies to the comments made back on 1/7/2024
Even if we stay healthy and steadily improve I think this team's ceiling is an NIT bid, and honestly I am just fine with that.
@Pittisit4me ==> We got close
I'm betting the under. (Pitt being 20-10 or better for the season)
@Parkview57 ==> you lost your bet

UNC & Duke are class of the league. Miami, Wake and Clemson are probably the next tier, with Clemson a team of vets with a really low ceiling. NCSU might belong in this tier too. Jury still out, imo.

The rest of the league just isn't very good, imo. At least that's my two cents as of 1/7/24.
@TD_6082 ==> Pretty good call other than Miami - my guess is that if Pitt had lost to WF last Thursday, the players would've said "yes" to the NIT
 
  • Like
Reactions: Parkview57
Interesting to re-read this post and the replies, two and a half months later ... adding a few replies to the comments made back on 1/7/2024

@Pittisit4me ==> We got close

@Parkview57 ==> you lost your bet


@TD_6082 ==> Pretty good call other than Miami - my guess is that if Pitt had lost to WF last Thursday, the players would've said "yes" to the NIT
This was on 1/7?

The alarm bells went off on Miami just three days later on 1/10. That's the night they lost to Louisville. The Canes were an absolute clusterf**k. I have a really good inside source on Canes basketball. I'm going to try to see if there was some kind of internal issues down there that sent that thing into a death spiral this year.
 
This was on 1/7?

The alarm bells went off on Miami just three days later on 1/10. That's the night they lost to Louisville. The Canes were an absolute clusterf**k. I have a really good inside source on Canes basketball. I'm going to try to see if there was some kind of internal issues down there that sent that thing into a death spiral this year.
Yes; if you re-read the thread (it's not too long) all of the comments were made on 1/6 or 1/7/2024 ... would be interesting to know what happened with the Canes. They certainly $hit the bed the last half of the season
 
you lost your bet
It was a pleasure, two weeks after this post I was sure, Pitt was as good as any team outside the top 16 in the country, now I even think it may be able to be 50/50 with those teams into the top 6 . It is a shame it turned out this way what with all the bid stealers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chairman Moe
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT