Fortunate to have Duzz and FCJ!

[cashisking884]

Yes, and that's why PFF and other "guys that never played a down" do not give grades for "progression reading" though they may try to explain it through the various measurable stats.

How long did the QB have a clean pocket before he threw the ball?
What is his Time to Throw with a clean pocket vs under pressure, completions vs incompletions, play action vs not?
How often does the qb avoid a sack under pressure?
Did the pass hit the dirt 5 yards behind/beyond the receiver?
Did the pass hit the receiver's hands or body?
Does the ball hit a receiver's hands substantially more often when throwing to the left versus right?
How about when throwing 10 yards downfield vs 20 yards down field?
etc.

These are all things that can be quantified by people with little/no football playing experience and none of them require any inside knowledge of assignments to be 90%+ accurate. I'm sure most of the teams that use these services aren't looking at "grades" as much as they are looking at the raw percentages, but to everyone else a grade is a far easier way for them to issue an evaluation.

No one is saying these services are infallible or replace actual film study and no one is saying that there aren't positions that are much harder to quantify, but they are an invaluable tool for virtually every professional program.

Exactly.

People are trying a little too hard to pretend like the red flags that were there with PJ under FCJ, weren’t also what we saw with Slovis under FCJ. Pretending like the scouts making this assessment have no idea what they are seeing, or these grades are impossible to give unless you’re FCJ because only he has the magic decoder ring to the play, is silly.

The better argument is that both PJ and Slovis are dumb QBs independent of FCJ. Which probably has some merit to it.

 

[Parkview57]

2018	14	180	310	58.1	1,969	6.4	12	6	120.3
2019	12	289	469	61.6	3,098	6.6	13	9	122.4
2020	9	203	332	61.1	2,408	7.3	13	9	129.6
2021	13	334	497	67.2	4,319	8.7	42	7	165.3

The better argument is that both PJ and Slovis are dumb QBs independent of FCJ. Which probably has some merit to it.

Sometimes dumb Qb's wise up.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

You just might be correct. Cignetti’s play calling must cause one to lock in on one receiver, and not make any progression reads.

A new play caller at BYU should solve that.

Conservative play calling by your OC will not win you a National Championship in today's college football.

 

[RaleighPittFan]

Conservative play calling by your OC will not win you a National Championship in today's college football.

When did we make the monumental leap to discussing Slovis and National Championship in the same sentence?

 

[steelcurtain55.]

Yes, and that's why PFF and other "guys that never played a down" do not give grades for "progression reading" though they may try to explain it through the various measurable stats.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-an-introduction-to-pff-qb-charting

Sounds like they do..

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rankin...rows-patrick-mahomes-drew-brees-aaron-rodgers

How long did the QB have a clean pocket before he threw the ball?
What is his Time to Throw with a clean pocket vs under pressure, completions vs incompletions, play action vs not?
How often does the qb avoid a sack under pressure?
Did the pass hit the dirt 5 yards behind/beyond the receiver?
Did the pass hit the receiver's hands or body?
Does the ball hit a receiver's hands substantially more often when throwing to the left versus right?
How about when throwing 10 yards downfield vs 20 yards down field?
etc.

These are all things that can be quantified by people with little/no football playing experience and none of them require any inside knowledge of assignments to be 90%+ accurate. I'm sure most of the teams that use these services aren't looking at "grades" as much as they are looking at the raw percentages, but to everyone else a grade is a far easier way for them to issue an evaluation.

These things are neat and I'm sure they're productive measurables in certain situations. But, there needs to be context. For instance, throwing the ball -10 yards or +20 yards downfield, what is situation in the game, what is the personnel, what is the play, is there pressure, are you playing with a backup vs a pro bowler, etc etc etc. How about hitting a receivers hands or body? Sometimes, it actually is better to use the body vs. the hands. Sometimes it's not.

In the college game, Lincoln Riley said a few years ago that many of the analytic guys were crediting/grading pass plays as RPO's when in reality they were just PAP's and vice versa. For him that was a good thing, because if they don't know what it is, the defenses are probably defending them way too. I've heard Brett Dearmon joke about it when he said announcers are constantly referencing analytic data on RPO's vs PAP's. It's not a major knock on someone trying to analyze it but many times it's only the play caller and the players who know what the hell is going on.

In terms of other positions like the OL, I'll leave it at this -

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/tj-lang-pro-football-focus-is-absolute-garbage/

 

[CJsE]

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-an-introduction-to-pff-qb-charting

Sounds like they do..

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rankin...rows-patrick-mahomes-drew-brees-aaron-rodgers



These things are neat and I'm sure they're productive measurables in certain situations. But, there needs to be context. For instance, throwing the ball -10 yards or +20 yards downfield, what is situation in the game, what is the personnel, what is the play, is there pressure, are you playing with a backup vs a pro bowler, etc etc etc. How about hitting a receivers hands or body? Sometimes, it actually is better to use the body vs. the hands. Sometimes it's not.

In the college game, Lincoln Riley said a few years ago that many of the analytic guys were crediting/grading pass plays as RPO's when in reality they were just PAP's and vice versa. For him that was a good thing, because if they don't know what it is, the defenses are probably defending them way too. I've heard Brett Dearmon joke about it when he said announcers are constantly referencing analytic data on RPO's vs PAP's. It's not a major knock on someone trying to analyze it but many times it's only the play caller and the players who know what the hell is going on.

In terms of other positions like the OL, I'll leave it at this -

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/tj-lang-pro-football-focus-is-absolute-garbage/

They don't include that read rating in their player grading criteria, it's article fodder and the weaknesses are clearly explained. And even for just article fodder, it's a simple 1/0 determination on if he throws to the side of the field he looks first off the snap.

Also when I said hands or chest, I meant for that a pass that hits hands or chest is considered a drop rather a bad throw. About your pressure question, they break that down. They show their performance under pressure vs not and I imagine their professional review packages break it down on an individual play basis.

But hey, I'm sure you know better than the people who have contracts with more than a hundred professional and college organizations. Hold on while I go pull up all the former baseball scouts, managers, and players who said that analytics aren't useful in baseball.

WHO IS DOING THE GRADING?​

PFF employs over 600 full or part-time analysts, but less than 10% of analysts are trained to the level that they can grade plays. Only the top two to three percent of analysts are on the team of “senior analysts” in charge of finalizing each grade after review. Our graders have been training for months, and sometimes years, in order to learn, understand and show mastery of our process that includes our 300-page training manual and video playbook. We have analysts from all walks of life, including former players, coaches and scouts. We don’t care if you played.


Each grade is reviewed at least once, and usually multiple times, using every camera angle available, including All-22 coaches’ tape.

PFF Player Grades | PFF

The PFF philosophy, our process and how to interpret PFF Player Grades.

www.pff.com

 

[steelcurtain55.]

But hey, I'm sure you know better than the people who have contracts with more than a hundred professional and college organizations. Hold on while I go pull up all the former baseball scouts, managers, and players who said that analytics aren't useful in baseball.

When it comes to football, I'll stick with the goat.


When it comes to other sports - I have no freaking clue. I'm sure in baseball analytics are great. I mean I did love Brad Pitt in Moneyball. ;-)

 

[CJsE]

View embedded media

When it comes to football, I'll stick with the goat.


When it comes to other sports - I have no freaking clue. I'm sure in baseball analytics are great. I mean I did love Brad Pitt in Moneyball. ;-)

Belichick had Ernie Adams on his staff for 30 years, before his retirement last season. Adams is a mathematician and former bonds trader. He is considered one of the pioneers of analytics in football and has been compared to Bill James, but for football.

Here's an article from 2004 https://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/12/magazine/sabermetrics-for-football.html

Here's an ESPN article about him from 2008 http://www.espn.com/espn/eticket/story?page=adams&redirected=true

Here's what Belichick said after accepting a Lifetime Achievment Award from MIT Sports Analytics Conference in 2013 (The year after Bill James won it)

“We all have different responsibilities,” Belichick said. “I certainly respect the mathematical and statistical ways of looking at the game and trying to use those methods and results to improve our product on the field.”

Here's the Analytics group with a Sports Division run by Robert Kraft out of Gillette Stadium https://www.kagr.com/

Edit: Here's Belichick talking about Ernie's contributions prior to his retirement.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

Bottom line, Patti/Wayne/Means/Sauls bailed Cig and Duz out for some really bad decisions and calls in the final 5 minutes the other night. Not to say the coaches certainly didn’t do a nice job preparing an undermanned squad to compete with a full strength UCLA team overall, they did. But the final five minutes were botched by the old guys in the polo shirts, and in the last possession, the Jimmy’s and Joes saved the day.

 

[TD_6082]

Bottom line, Patti/Wayne/Means/Sauls bailed Cig and Duz out for some really bad decisions and calls in the final 5 minutes the other night. Not to say the coaches certainly didn’t do a nice job preparing an undermanned squad to compete with a full strength UCLA team overall, they did. But the final five minutes were botched by the old guys in the polo shirts, and in the last possession, the Jimmy’s and Joes saved the day.

??? Wayne dropped an easy TD pass that would have put the game away.

 

[NCPitt]

Bottom line, Patti/Wayne/Means/Sauls bailed Cig and Duz out for some really bad decisions and calls in the final 5 minutes the other night. Not to say the coaches certainly didn’t do a nice job preparing an undermanned squad to compete with a full strength UCLA team overall, they did. But the final five minutes were botched by the old guys in the polo shirts, and in the last possession, the Jimmy’s and Joes saved the day.

LOL. A coach's job is to put the players in a position to make plays and win games. That's exactly what happened, meaning the coaches did their jobs.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

When folks don't like a guy they'll find every reason and "stat" to make their point.

I think analytics are useful and help teams understand how to improve or to find deficiencies in opponents and situational strategy. They're just historical data parsed a million different ways.

Too many people on here try to use the historical data as a predictor of future events. It doesn't work that way as there are just too many wildcards. College football is probably the hardest sport to predict the future because of all the change. Not just in personnel and coaching, but in the growth of players.

What Phil Jurkovec did at BC with FCJ in his first two years starting doesn't tell you what will happen at Pitt in his 4th year.

 

[cashisking884]

What Phil Jurkovec did at BC with FCJ in his first two years starting doesn't tell you what will happen at Pitt in his 4th year.

this is a strawman. Nobody is arguing otherwise.

But past performance can indicate patterns. And the question would be, “why would anybody believe it’s going to change?”

When some of the posters in this thread were hyping up Slovis this past offseason, and how good he was at USC and the leaps he was going to make, I frequently asked, “why?”

Why would a QB with the weaknesses pointed out in the analytics, all of a sudden change? And what about FCJ’s history would lead anybody to believe his offenses can usher in that change?

As I said, I think there’s merit to the arguments that Slovis and PJ just don’t know how to process what they are seeing on the field, and that isn’t a FCJ problem.

But the analytics cited above are concerning as it relates to FCJ and his ability to teach his offense to a college QB, even if they are not definitive.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

LOL. A coach's job is to put the players in a position to make plays and win games. That's exactly what happened, meaning the coaches did their jobs.

Well if a genius like you, who cheers everyone quitting the team, thinks they did a great job, my position is more redeemed as correct than ever.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

Bill Belichick had Ernie Adams on staff who was a former football coach himself is not a great example of Belichick embracing what PFF does and how people interpret the game. In fact this is what he said - I’ve never looked at one,” Belichick said in 2019 regarding analytics websites. “I don’t even care to look at one. I don’t care what they say.” https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/why-bill-belichick-dismiss-use-analytics-nfl

When he's not on the field, I'm willing to bet this makes up 90-95% of how Bill prepares for a game -

Bill saying nice things at an award ceremony is par for the course. I mean MIT is a big deal in Boston. His boss having a share in a local company's venture probably goes a long way for Bill showing up, getting an award and being a nice guy.

But, back to Ernie Adams. He has inside information. He understands what Bill likes and doesn't like. Guys have self scouted since football was created. Guys have used data points in breaking down film for decades. All coaches use equations and formulas for what they look for an athlete, scheme, opponent, etc. My beef with PFF is the same that Belichick has, "how can you possibly interpret everything from afar without specific context?"

 

[rmf05]

You must ave missed the Canada season, 2016 I think.

Canada was boo'ed off the field several times that year. People forget how lousy he was in the 2nd halves against PSU, GT and NC and in the opener.

 

[Parkview57]

People forget how lousy he was in the 2nd halves against PSU, GT and NC and in the opener.

I was at the PSU game, a great day for Pitt but where I was I don't recall any booing, scoring 37 in the win against GT may have been cause to Boo, and the game at North Carolina yeah I do recall vaguely booing from my couch, not sure anyone heard us at Chapel Hill?

 

[NCPitt]

Well if a genius like you, who cheers everyone quitting the team, thinks they did a great job, my position is more redeemed as correct than ever.

LOL.

I cheered the opt-outs - not. You're a liar in addition to an idiot.

Btw, the coaches did a very good job, unless you're a Narduzzi hater, of course.

 

[Teh Teh]

You must ave missed the Canada season, 2016 I think.

Well Canada was great.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

When did we make the monumental leap to discussing Slovis and National Championship in the same sentence?

I wasn't talking about specifically about Slovis or Pitt being a national contender. Do you think that this years Pitt football team could have competed with the four offenses that we all saw on display in the national semi-finals? I think not.

 

[PittPharm2002]

LOL.

I cheered the opt-outs - not. You're a liar in addition to an idiot.

Btw, the coaches did a very good job, unless you're a Narduzzi hater, of course.

Your thoughts and prayers are noted

 

[NCPitt]

Your thoughts and prayers are noted

WTH are you talking about?

 

[PittPharm2002]

WTH are you talking about?

I’m talking about your talk online doesn’t matter as regards to support .

 

[NCPitt]

I’m talking about your talk online doesn’t matter as regards to support .

That is so off-topic. But it is what you do.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

LOL.

I cheered the opt-outs - not. You're a liar in addition to an idiot.

Btw, the coaches did a very good job, unless you're a Narduzzi hater, of course.

Thank you. Your resorting to childish insults acknowledges your loss (losses… in two threads). I accept my victories with my customary grace. Take your L’s with some grace, son…

 

[PittPharm2002]

That is so off-topic. But it is what you do.

The topic is the coaches and your “support “
Need me to cut up your dinner for you ?

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Bill Belichick had Ernie Adams on staff who was a former football coach himself is not a great example of Belichick embracing what PFF does and how people interpret the game. In fact this is what he said - I’ve never looked at one,” Belichick said in 2019 regarding analytics websites. “I don’t even care to look at one. I don’t care what they say.” https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/why-bill-belichick-dismiss-use-analytics-nfl

When he's not on the field, I'm willing to bet this makes up 90-95% of how Bill prepares for a game -

View embedded media

Bill saying nice things at an award ceremony is par for the course. I mean MIT is a big deal in Boston. His boss having a share in a local company's venture probably goes a long way for Bill showing up, getting an award and being a nice guy.

But, back to Ernie Adams. He has inside information. He understands what Bill likes and doesn't like. Guys have self scouted since football was created. Guys have used data points in breaking down film for decades. All coaches use equations and formulas for what they look for an athlete, scheme, opponent, etc. My beef with PFF is the same that Belichick has, "how can you possibly interpret everything from afar without specific context?"

Love that video.

The thing about Belichick (maybe Popovich is similar, I'm not sure) is he basically has an innate understanding of football math without having to look at analytic data. He goes for it on 4th down when other coaches would punt. This is partially, I believe, that he had the job security to do that unconventional thing. But partially I think he just seems to understands when it increases his chances of winning a game.

I am not sure how useful stuff like PFF is. In basketball, all the good stuff is proprietary and we'll never get to see it anyway (like putting little motion trackers on players during practice etc.) Everything else is a bit too subjective. Baseball seems the easiest game to measure.

 

[NCPitt]

Thank you. Your resorting to childish insults acknowledges your loss (losses… in two threads). I accept my victories with my customary grace. Take your L’s with some grace, son…

Your lying previously conceded your loss.

I'm not sure whether to feel sorry for you or embarrassed for you that you had to resort to lying to strengthen your argument.

 

[NCPitt]

The topic is the coaches and your “support “
Need me to cut up your dinner for you ?

No where in this thread did I talk about supporting coaches, unless you consider an opinion that they did a good and did their jobs as support. It certainly is a different take than previous "support" discussions.

Regardless, I do and have supported Narduzzi and I do it only on this board. I'm not walking away from that because it matters.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

The thing about Belichick (maybe Popovich is similar, I'm not sure) is he basically has an innate understanding of football math without having to look at analytic data.

100% agree. I'm willing to bet like many guys like him they use analytics to both notice certain trends and see if they're compelling enough to make wholesale or minimal changes in scheme and strategy. And, I bet he uses them to confirm or deny his decisions he makes.

He goes for it on 4th down when other coaches would punt.

I coached against a guy who was a huge analytic guy. He basically copied Kevin Kelly to a tee. Well, I watched him lose 2-3 games a few years back because he never punted no matter the situation. I saw him lose a game when he had a 16 point lead in the 4th quarter because he was going for it backed up in his own territory at ridiculous down/distances. His reply was the statistics will soon average out. He now has no coaching job and lasted one year.

I am not sure how useful stuff like PFF is. In basketball, all the good stuff is proprietary and we'll never get to see it anyway (like putting little motion trackers on players during practice etc.) Everything else is a bit too subjective. Baseball seems the easiest game to measure.

I agree that I think baseball is phenomenal when using those metrics and analytics. Knowing what a guy's batting average at certain parts of the strike zone is so much more objective then grading out a position player in football. Golf is another sport that I've learned appreciate studying analytics. It all started with me getting a free pass with golf swing analyzer.