Let me rephrase, it’s very unlikely that a team in one season transitions from 3-9 to 11-0 or 10-1 and to have that sort of expectation is unrealistic. It absolutely helped Indiana that they only played 3 teams the entire season that are bowl eligible (assuming Michigan losses to Ohio State). That’s about as easy as a schedule can get.
To contrast, Pitt has played 8 teams that are currently bowl eligible. A Cincinnati and Virginia win this weekend can make it potentially 10.
If we had Indiana’s schedule I believe our record would be identical.
Indiana isn’t in the CFP picture with Pitt’s schedule.