It's cold, and here are some cold hard recruiting facts

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts

• 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
• 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
• 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
• 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.

So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

 

[tetonpanther]

No at 45 or 50 it puts us right where 8-5 teams in crappy bowls are ranked in the season and recruiting. Star ratings matter and playing in an empty stadium in front of a sparse crowd matters as well. Duzz is faced with a huge stumbling block no one attends our games.

 

[ThePanthers]

Read on Yahoo 22 of the 33 5 star recruits on rivals went to 4 schools this year. There are a handful of schools that get all the talent. Pitt isn't and won't be one of them.

But we can compete for the coastal, which we have and maybe have a magical season occasionally. That should be the goal.

 

[ThePanthers]

No at 45 or 50 it puts us right where 8-5 teams in crappy bowls are ranked in the season and recruiting.

I'd look more at where we landed in the average stars. Which we typically land in the 30s.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts

• 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
• 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
• 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
• 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.

So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

This is precisely why those of us who lived through the glory years of the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s are so bitterly disappointed with Pitt football.

 

[PittFamily2]

This is precisely why those of us who lived through the glory years of the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s are so bitterly disappointed with Pitt football.

And those of us who got on the PITT bandwagon

later than that timeframe are also disappointed. PITT football has managed to pi-s off decades of fans.

Although we see some light at then end of the Squirrel Hill Tunnel with this recent recruiting class. We're back where Wanny left off. Its up to PN to turn the corner and get PITT in the # 20-30 recruiting ranking.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

This is precisely why those of us who lived through the glory years of the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s are so bitterly disappointed with Pitt football.

But those of you who have lived through the glory years, and I used to argue this with Del all the time (by the way where is he?) that those days for Pitt are gone forever.

All that talent that is around Atlanta, think the Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Jake Fromm, well that used to be Pittsburgh. It isn't. Also, there wasn't the money involved like there is now. I liken it to MLB where payrolls were fairly close together, as compared to now where some teams spend $300 million others $70 million. Big gaps. Used to be teams like Pitt had an advantage because the Northeast was wired more for early cable and TV, so teams like Pitt and PSU were desirable for networks. And of course, population shifts.

But that doesn't mean we can't be better than we are doing now. All we are doing is the same. And we are hiring the same coaches, doing the same recruiting. People blast attendance, but again 10 straight years of 5 or more losses, 26 out of 30 years with 5 or more losses, all of that success continues in the rear view mirror.

Almost every program, almost every one has found a magic season or 3 where they put together 10-11 win seasons. Except....well Pitt. So you can't blame the fanbase. Hell the Steelers have all these issues this year, they still may win 10 games. That is also what Pitt has to fight. So we should really just be happy with 8-5 seasons because there appears to be no answer for anything better.

 

[wbrpanther]

Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts

• 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
• 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
• 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
• 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.

So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

Owt, I need a clarification here. When you say NFL draftees-5 star 60%. Are you saying 60% of NFL draftees are 5 star or 60% of 5 stars get drafted. I would have to think it's the latter because there aren't very many 5 stars every year.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts

• 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
• 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
• 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
• 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.

So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

My expectations for Pitt recruiting is to have a Top 30 class almost every year. Maybe 4 out of 5 years. And maybe 1 of those 5 years, have a Top 20 class. If you cant do that, you have no shot no matter how good of a coach you have. Unless you hit the lottery with an NFL 1st Round QB like a Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, etc.

 

[pittdan77]

Very good OP. Nothing to argue for me. I don’t like the overly simplistic Rivals system and prefer the composite average for graded talent a lot more. Seems to be a better indicator of the class quality when you don’t have 28 kids in it like certain schools.

We still don’t know what the net effect of the dreaded “transfer portal” will be for schools like Pitt. Something tells me that it should help if it’s handled correctly but it does place less emphasis on recruiting HS kids to build a program. It’s reasonable to assume that staffs are laying the groundwork with kids they know they can’t get right away so they have a relationship in a year or so. It’s legitimate to assume that’s just fine because that kid might not be helping you in the first year or so anyway. I believe this staff is concluding that certain positions can be better handled that way.

It took a long time to break Pitt football. This program could be Rutgers or even worse, stuck in the AAC, so that’s something. Nobody should be excited with where the program is at but I don’t think it’s a disaster that should be blown up, either.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Owt, I need a clarification here. When you say NFL draftees-5 star 60%. Are you saying 60% of NFL draftees are 5 star or 60% of 5 stars get drafted. I would have to think it's the latter because there aren't very many 5 stars every year.

I thought it would be self explanatory. Yeah, 60% of the 5 stars are drafted. The bulk of NFL draftees are actually 3 stars. But that is because there are like 2000 3 stars, so you go 6-7% and that number is much greater than say 60% of 25, Right?

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts

• 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
• 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
• 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
• 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.

So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

You could cut and paste this every year, or you could convey the same message in a sentence or two. Everyone knows this, not sure what your point is other than throwing shade at Pitt.

Nobody is looking at this class and saying CFP is in sight.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You could cut and paste this every year, or you could convey the same message in a sentence or two. Everyone knows this, not sure what your point is other than throwing shade at Pitt.

Nobody is looking at this class and saying CFP is in sight.

Many people still believe recruiting rankings dont matter at all.

 

[JarheadLEO]

I think you can get away with a class in the 30s range if you have a staff full of coaches who develop that three star talent quickly. Pitt just doesn’t have those coaches, and so when you take a class of 17, 10 may work out and be contributors but seven either transfer out or never develop into a decent prospect.

There has to be a fair amount of concern though for Pitt’s inability to recruit QB’s and TE’s. If Georgia tech can pull a four-star quarterback out of Florida, there is absolutely no reason why Pitt can’t.

 

[Ski11585]

You could cut and paste this every year, or you could convey the same message in a sentence or two. Everyone knows this, not sure what your point is other than throwing shade at Pitt.

Nobody is looking at this class and saying CFP is in sight.

But plenty of posters (like Del) think Pitt should and can compete for a CFP.

They can’t and won’t. Ever.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

You could cut and paste this every year, or you could convey the same message in a sentence or two. Everyone knows this, not sure what your point is other than throwing shade at Pitt.

Nobody is looking at this class and saying CFP is in sight.

I think there are alot of opinions, but when you apply cold hard numbers, especially our records the last 40 years, it just explains the status quo and lack of enthusiasm with the fanbase. Not trying to throw "shade", just reality. And to be honest, I have almost a disbelief that a program that has produced so many elite players can be just so consistently mediocre.

 

[wbrpanther]

I thought it would be self explanatory. Yeah, 60% of the 5 stars are drafted. The bulk of NFL draftees are actually 3 stars. But that is because there are like 2000 3 stars, so you go 6-7% and that number is much greater than say 60% of 25, Right?

Exactly what I thought. Don't be so damn condescending.

 

[ThePanthers]

I think you can get away with a class in the 30s range if you have a staff full of coaches who develop that three star talent quickly. Pitt just doesn’t have those coaches, and so when you take a class of 17, 10 may work out and be contributors but seven either transfer out or never develop into a decent prospect.

There has to be a fair amount of concern though for Pitt’s inability to recruit QB’s and TE’s. If Georgia tech can pull a four-star quarterback out of Florida, there is absolutely no reason why Pitt can’t.

Pitt pulled a 4 star just last year.

 

[Panthergrowl13]

I thought it would be self explanatory. Yeah, 60% of the 5 stars are drafted. The bulk of NFL draftees are actually 3 stars. But that is because there are like 2000 3 stars, so you go 6-7% and that number is much greater than say 60% of 25, Right?

Yep

Rival 3-Star recruits like Aaron Donald and James Connor are doing quite well in the NFL.

If G-5 Teams like UCF, Memphis, and Cinn can do it with their recruits, there is no reason Pitt (P-5) can't.

Tarp Heinz Field!!!!

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[JarheadLEO]

Pitt pulled a 4 star just last year.

The overwhelming majority of kids Pitt gets are 3 stars.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

The Top 15 recruiting classes almost every year are manned by programs that receive a lot of support from their alums and fans. It isn’t a coincidence that we aren’t landing Top 15 recruiting classes.

 

[ThePanthers]

I think there are alot of opinions, but when you apply cold hard numbers, especially our records the last 40 years, it just explains the status quo and lack of enthusiasm with the fanbase. Not trying to throw "shade", just reality. And to be honest, I have almost a disbelief that a program that has produced so many elite players can be just so consistently mediocre.

Fanbase has been bleh since the early 80s, and even before then, so it's not a long term effect thing. In college athletics alumni and fan support is critical to moving a program forward. That is why I think the fanbase absolutely deserves some of the blame, as well as the admin. It's not like it was ever strong, even during the glory years.

As for the elite players. We definitely have our share. Problem is we don't have the depth to support them.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Many people still believe recruiting rankings dont matter at all.

i think that's an exaggeration. like Recruits said, i think it's marginal and objective to argue between the 200th and 400th rated player or that a class ranked 40th is head and shoulders above the 30th..

Again, like everyone is saying, the elite players and classes are easy to identify and they mostly go to the top schools, hence we watch the same 6-7 compete for 4 playoff spots year in and year out.

where people laugh and mock these evaluations are the differences between a low 3 star 5.5 rating and a high 3 star 5.7 rating or the fact that the class rankings are based on some nonsensical accumulation system instead of overall ranking average..

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

My expectations for Pitt recruiting is to have a Top 30 class almost every year. Maybe 4 out of 5 years. And maybe 1 of those 5 years, have a Top 20 class. If you cant do that, you have no shot no matter how good of a coach you have. Unless you hit the lottery with an NFL 1st Round QB like a Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, etc.

This. Also with the hope that you get a some guys who outplay their rankings outside the lottery win of a game changing QB. I don’t know where they are now but like Wisconsin or even MSU did it. I don’t think they were ever consistently very high. They just got guys who could play and I believe their place in the polls was pretty consistently higher than the recruiting rankings.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Yep

Rival 3-Star recruits like Aaron Donald and James Connor are doing quite well in the NFL.

If G-5 Teams like UCF, Mempis, and Cinn can do it with their recruits, there is no reason Pitt (P-5) can't.

Tarp Heinz Field!!!!

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

this is a good point. every year we see multiple teams with recruiting classes that are annually far much worse than ours and they are in the top 20 and often higher..

I think that is why people don't hold too much stock in these rankings and further validates that the difference between a 30th ranked class and a 50th is often very subjective and very wrong..

 

[JarheadLEO]

Yep

Rival 3-Star recruits like Aaron Donald and James Connor are doing quite well in the NFL.

If G-5 Teams like UCF, Memphis, and Cinn can do it with their recruits, there is no reason Pitt (P-5) can't.

Tarp Heinz Field!!!!

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

Coincidentally, UCF, Memphis, and Cincinnati all have their own stadiums.

 

[ThePanthers]

The overwhelming majority of kids Pitt gets are 3 stars.

You specifically said gt pulling one and why can't pitt. I factually noted pitt did last year.

 

[ThePanthers]

Coincidentally, UCF, Memphis, and Cincinnati all have their own stadiums.

Oh christ. Going on ignore.

 

[JarheadLEO]

Oh christ. Going on ignore.

Lol, just saying.

 

[pitt-girl]

I get facts are facts, but geez, this board is miserable.

To me it's a choice. We can look at this class and focus on the potential (which Narduzzi has had success at) - or - you can sit back and whine that we aren't one of the top 7 teams in the country. It is what it is. If this program makes you that miserable - why in the world would you keep supporting it? Or does it give some people pleasure to just constantly complain?

Sheesh - Happy Holidays.

 

[JarheadLEO]

You specifically said gt pulling one and why can't pitt. I factually noted pitt did last year.

Agree, then play him. We know what Pickett gives you. T

You specifically said gt pulling one and why can't pitt. I factually noted pitt did last year.

I know, then play him. Why on Earth is Pickett playing in the bowl game? There is 0 reason why Beville shouldn’t start next week.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

I think there are alot of opinions, but when you apply cold hard numbers, especially our records the last 40 years, it just explains the status quo and lack of enthusiasm with the fanbase. Not trying to throw "shade", just reality. And to be honest, I have almost a disbelief that a program that has produced so many elite players can be just so consistently mediocre.

Unless rampant cheating is encouraged from the top brass at the University, Pitt will never recruit with the big boys. It's just not going to happen.

So you need to look at each class objectively and assess if they've addressed areas of need and helped themselves get better. That's what Pitt fans should be interested in (not if 247 has them ranked 31st or 41st). Waiting for top ranked classes is going to provide a lot of disappointment.

 

[pafootballguy]

Yep

Rival 3-Star recruits like Aaron Donald and James Connor are doing quite well in the NFL.

If G-5 Teams like UCF, Memphis, and Cinn can do it with their recruits, there is no reason Pitt (P-5) can't.

Tarp Heinz Field!!!!

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

This stupid, if you put any of those programs in a P5 conference they would not have the same sustained success with the talent they have.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I get facts are facts, but geez, this board is miserable.

To me it's a choice. We can look at this class and focus on the potential (which Narduzzi has had success at) - or - you can sit back and whine that we aren't one of the top 7 teams in the country. It is what it is. If this program makes you that miserable - why in the world would you keep supporting it? Or does it give some people pleasure to just constantly complain?

Sheesh - Happy Holidays.

Well so far signing days have led to the same results. I’m not miserable. I’m sure some are. But I think a lot of this is just trying to be objective. If anyone wants to have a celebration because of who we signed - have at it. I’ll save all of my football excitement (and a lot is built up) until it’s earned on the field.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

The best chance at success for Pitt is to land good players and then develop them. We are not going to land a bunch of great players like Ohio State, Clemson, Bama, LSU, etc.

 

[pitt2533]

Many people still believe recruiting rankings dont matter at all.

Nobody believes that. Stop.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Okay......some hard truths.....

1) Most of the annual participants in the playoffs and top 10 of the rankings are teams who most years have top 10 recruiting classes. So yes, it does matter.

2) Most of these kids go in reality to a 4-6 hour drive of their home. So southern schools always have the advantage because there are just alot more and better players down there. So they have this advantage.

3) Certain schools are national brands. Unfortunately, Penn State is one of them. We aren't.

4) I do agree parsing class #28 vs #40 or the #198th ranked kid vs the #398th ranked kid is an exercise in futility to predict which will be ultimately more successful. But these numbers, vary from service to service but still highlights visibility
NFL Draftees
5 stars ~60%
4 stars ~ 25%
3 stars ~ 7%
2 stars and below...~1%
So in general, star rankings matter. Individually, sure there are definitely exceptions, but as a general rule, they matter.

5) And the hardest fact of all. This class on paper is much like most of the Pitt classes we have seen since the advent of internet recruiting sites (~25 years). And.....well the cold hard facts

• 10 straight years of 5 or more losses
• 26 out of 30 of 5 or more losses
• 31 out of 40 of 5 or more losses.
• 38 straight years of 3 losses or more.

So yeah, there's these results, that are indisputable. So this class isn't going to likely backslide us from where we are. But is it going to propel us forward? Not likely.

So.. you actually know sane people who dispute this?
What's next? Hard truths about the Pirates payroll?

 

[BigZeke]

The Top 15 recruiting classes almost every year are manned by programs that receive a lot of support from their alums and fans. It isn’t a coincidence that we aren’t landing Top 15 recruiting classes.

They do a lot more than “get a lot support from their alums and fans” and that extra support comes from “Friends of the Program” much like Pitt and the Golden Panthers in the glory days of Pitt Football.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

They do a lot more than “get a lot support from their alums and fans” and that extra support comes from “Friends of the Program” much like Pitt and the Golden Panthers in the glory days of Pitt Football.

60, 70, 80, 90, 100 thousand people chipping in and pulling in the same direction will get you a lot further than 30,000.

 

[pitt-girl]

Well so far signing days have led to the same results. I’m not miserable. I’m sure some are. But I think a lot of this is just trying to be objective. If anyone wants to have a celebration because of who we signed - have at it. I’ll save all of my football excitement (and a lot is built up) until it’s earned on the field.

Well I'm celebrating the kids who chose to come to my school. I can't waste the time gnashing my teeth on the others who chose elsewhere. Useless exercise IMHO.