Let's compare the AP Pre-season Top 25 to today's current CFP Top 25

[UPitt '89]

1. Alabama
Current CFP Rank: 3
Pollster Grade: B+
- Alabama is only two off of their pre-season ranking. Not bad.

2. Oklahoma
Current CFP Rank: 10
Pollster Grade: B-
- Oklahoma has been underwhelming compared to their original ranking, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

3. Clemson
Current CFP Rank: 23
Pollster Grade: D-
- While Clemson has rebounded recently, everybody thought they were a shoo-in to be in playoff contention.

4. Ohio State
Current CFP Rank: 2
Pollster Grade: A
- Ohio State is right around where everyone expected them to be.

5. Georgia
Current CFP Rank: 1
Pollster Grade: B+
- In retrospect, hard to believe anybody thought there were four teams better than Georgia.

6. Texas A&M
Current CFP Rank: 15
Pollster Grade: C+
- After a very rough start to the year, A&M is playing the way people expected them to.

7. Iowa State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Iowa State was a huge miss. Currently 6-5 and barely bowl eligible.

8. Cincinnati
Current CFP Rank: 4
Pollster Grade: B+
- Personally I think 8th is where they belong, but enough other teams have underperformed to get them up to 4th.

9. Notre Dame
Current CFP Rank: 6
Pollster Grade: A-
- Notre Dame, love or hate them, is meeting expectations.

10. North Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Pollsters bought the crap that Mack Brown was selling. Like they do every year.

11. Oregon
Current CFP Rank: 11
Pollster Grade: A+
- Oregon is exactly where everyone thought they would be.

12. Wisconsin
Current CFP Rank: 14
Pollster Grade: A-
- The Badgers started the year 1-3, but have won 7 straight - many of them decisively - and are right around where everyone thought they'd end up.

13. Florida
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Florida has imploded to the point that they're looking for a new coach. What a polling miss.

14. Miami
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- The AP pollsters had 3 ACC teams in the Top 15. None of them are the 3 ACC teams in the Top 20 now.

15. USC
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school that got their ranking because of recruiting rankings and history, not for the actual product.

16. LSU
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school looking for a new coach. Currently in last place in the SEC-West.

17. Indiana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F---------
- If there was a grade below F, this would be it. The Hoosiers are about to have a 10-loss season. It is an absolute crime that anyone thought they should've been ranked at all.

18. Iowa
Current CFP Rank: 16
Pollster Grade: A
- I don't think Iowa deserves to be 16th ranked, but they are. And the pollsters had them right around here.

19. Penn State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D+
- If not for the Illinois debacle, this might be where Penn State was ranked. But as usual, they overranked a Jimmy Franklin team.

20. Washington
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- Washington lost to Montana in the opening week and never returned to the polls.

21. Texas
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade; F
- Texas is on a 6-game losing streak, their longest since 1956. Even though 5 of the 6 losses are by one score, they've been horrible.

22. Coastal Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D-
- CCU wouldn't be above ,500 in any of the P5 conferences, and the pollsters had no business EVER ranking them.

23. Louisana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- See Coastal Carolina.

24. Utah
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: B+
- The Utes have proven worthy of their pre-season ranking.

25. Arizona State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- ASU wasn't necessary a bad ranking here, but they've underperformed.


Biggest misses among the pre-season unranked:

NR. Michigan
Current CFP Rank: 5
Pollster Grade: D
- Hard to believe the AP pollsters didn't even have Michigan in the Top 25.

NR. Oklahoma State
Current CFP Rank: 7
Pollster Grade: D+
- They were in the "others receiving votes" in the pre-season poll.... but now that have a real shot at the playoffs.

NR. Baylor
Current CFP Rank: 8
Pollster Grade: D-
- Baylor has been far better than anyone could have predicted.

NR. Ole Miss
Current CFP Rank: 9
Pollster Grade: C-
- Pollsters had them at 27th, pre-season, so not a huge miss.

NR. Michigan State
Current CFP Rank: 12
Pollster Grade: C-
- I don't think the pollsters were that far off for the Spartans. Without a ref-aided comeback win against Michigan, they might not even be ranked.

NR. BYU
Current CFP Rank: 13
Pollster Grade: D
- BYU has played a fairly tough schedule for a non-P5 team and have shown themselves to be worthy of their rank.

NR. Pitt
Current CFP Rank: 17
Pollster Grade: D+
- It was fair to have Pitt unranked pre-season. Even our own fans predicted 8-4 or 9-3 at best.

NR. Wake Forest
Current CFP Rank: 18
Pollster Grade D+
- See Pitt.

NR. NC State
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: D
- NC State has a solid enough team and roster that they probably should've been at the back end of the Top 25 preseason.

NR. San Diego State
Current CFP Rank: 21
Pollster Grade: C
- I'm not going to question the pollsters on this one. I don't think the Aztecs would be .500 in any P5 conference.

NR. UTSA
Current CFP Rank: 22
Pollster Grade: C
- See Coastal Carolina. The AP pollsters had it right. They shouldn't be ranked.

NR. Houston
Current CFP Rank: 24
Pollster Grade: D
- Holgy was always going to have 10+ wins with that roster in that conference. Bad miss by pollsters.

NR. Arkansas
Current CFP Rank: 25
Pollster Grade: C
- There's always some SEC teams that overperforms to make up for the ones that underperform. This year it was Ole Miss and Arkansas.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE AP POLLSTERS: D+


The AP poll should be eliminated. Clearly, sportswriters - as a group - are incapable of accurately evaluating college football teams. There should be *NO* polls at all until November 1st. Let the season play out for a bit before making any polls. The CFP does it right.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

The problem with these preseason polls. I can probably predict 18 of the 25 schools that will be ranked in the Preseason Poll......for 2026. It is mostly name brands. Which also has a residual effect on say Wisconsin and Iowa, who have they really beat? Same thing with SEC teams

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

1. Alabama
Current CFP Rank: 3
Pollster Grade: B+
- Alabama is only two off of their pre-season ranking. Not bad.

2. Oklahoma
Current CFP Rank: 10
Pollster Grade: B-
- Oklahoma has been underwhelming compared to their original ranking, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

3. Clemson
Current CFP Rank: 23
Pollster Grade: D-
- While Clemson has rebounded recently, everybody thought they were a shoo-in to be in playoff contention.

4. Ohio State
Current CFP Rank: 2
Pollster Grade: A
- Ohio State is right around where everyone expected them to be.

5. Georgia
Current CFP Rank: 1
Pollster Grade: B+
- In retrospect, hard to believe anybody thought there were four teams better than Georgia.

6. Texas A&M
Current CFP Rank: 15
Pollster Grade: C+
- After a very rough start to the year, A&M is playing the way people expected them to.

7. Iowa State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Iowa State was a huge miss. Currently 6-5 and barely bowl eligible.

8. Cincinnati
Current CFP Rank: 4
Pollster Grade: B+
- Personally I think 8th is where they belong, but enough other teams have underperformed to get them up to 4th.

9. Notre Dame
Current CFP Rank: 6
Pollster Grade: A-
- Notre Dame, love or hate them, is meeting expectations.

10. North Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Pollsters bought the crap that Mack Brown was selling. Like they do every year.

11. Oregon
Current CFP Rank: 11
Pollster Grade: A+
- Oregon is exactly where everyone thought they would be.

12. Wisconsin
Current CFP Rank: 14
Pollster Grade: A-
- The Badgers started the year 1-3, but have won 7 straight - many of them decisively - and are right around where everyone thought they'd end up.

13. Florida
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Florida has imploded to the point that they're looking for a new coach. What a polling miss.

14. Miami
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- The AP pollsters had 3 ACC teams in the Top 15. None of them are the 3 ACC teams in the Top 20 now.

15. USC
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school that got their ranking because of recruiting rankings and history, not for the actual product.

16. LSU
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school looking for a new coach. Currently in last place in the SEC-West.

17. Indiana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F---------
- If there was a grade below F, this would be it. The Hoosiers are about to have a 10-loss season. It is an absolute crime that anyone thought they should've been ranked at all.

18. Iowa
Current CFP Rank: 16
Pollster Grade: A
- I don't think Iowa deserves to be 16th ranked, but they are. And the pollsters had them right around here.

19. Penn State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D+
- If not for the Illinois debacle, this might be where Penn State was ranked. But as usual, they overranked a Jimmy Franklin team.

20. Washington
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- Washington lost to Montana in the opening week and never returned to the polls.

21. Texas
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade; F
- Texas is on a 6-game losing streak, their longest since 1956. Even though 5 of the 6 losses are by one score, they've been horrible.

22. Coastal Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D-
- CCU wouldn't be above ,500 in any of the P5 conferences, and the pollsters had no business EVER ranking them.

23. Louisana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- See Coastal Carolina.

24. Utah
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: B+
- The Utes have proven worthy of their pre-season ranking.

25. Arizona State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- ASU wasn't necessary a bad ranking here, but they've underperformed.


Biggest misses among the pre-season unranked:

NR. Michigan
Current CFP Rank: 5
Pollster Grade: D
- Hard to believe the AP pollsters didn't even have Michigan in the Top 25.

NR. Oklahoma State
Current CFP Rank: 7
Pollster Grade: D+
- They were in the "others receiving votes" in the pre-season poll.... but now that have a real shot at the playoffs.

NR. Baylor
Current CFP Rank: 8
Pollster Grade: D-
- Baylor has been far better than anyone could have predicted.

NR. Ole Miss
Current CFP Rank: 9
Pollster Grade: C-
- Pollsters had them at 27th, pre-season, so not a huge miss.

NR. Michigan State
Current CFP Rank: 12
Pollster Grade: C-
- I don't think the pollsters were that far off for the Spartans. Without a ref-aided comeback win against Michigan, they might not even be ranked.

NR. BYU
Current CFP Rank: 13
Pollster Grade: D
- BYU has played a fairly tough schedule for a non-P5 team and have shown themselves to be worthy of their rank.

NR. Pitt
Current CFP Rank: 17
Pollster Grade: D+
- It was fair to have Pitt unranked pre-season. Even our own fans predicted 8-4 or 9-3 at best.

NR. Wake Forest
Current CFP Rank: 18
Pollster Grade D+
- See Pitt.

NR. NC State
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: D
- NC State has a solid enough team and roster that they probably should've been at the back end of the Top 25 preseason.

NR. San Diego State
Current CFP Rank: 21
Pollster Grade: C
- I'm not going to question the pollsters on this one. I don't think the Aztecs would be .500 in any P5 conference.

NR. UTSA
Current CFP Rank: 22
Pollster Grade: C
- See Coastal Carolina. The AP pollsters had it right. They shouldn't be ranked.

NR. Houston
Current CFP Rank: 24
Pollster Grade: D
- Holgy was always going to have 10+ wins with that roster in that conference. Bad miss by pollsters.

NR. Arkansas
Current CFP Rank: 25
Pollster Grade: C
- There's always some SEC teams that overperforms to make up for the ones that underperform. This year it was Ole Miss and Arkansas.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE AP POLLSTERS: D+


The AP poll should be eliminated. Clearly, sportswriters - as a group - are incapable of accurately evaluating college football teams. There should be *NO* polls at all until November 1st. Let the season play out for a bit before making any polls. The CFP does it right.

You are spot on. The AP poll is a joke.

 

[UPitt '89]

The problem with these preseason polls. I can probably predict 18 of the 25 schools that will be ranked in the Preseason Poll......for 2026. It is mostly name brands. Which also has a residual effect on say Wisconsin and Iowa, who have they really beat? Same thing with SEC teams

That's why there should be no such thing as "preseason polls".

There should be no polls at all until at least 5 weeks into the season, minimum.

Then... the first polls would be more representative of where teams actually are.


13 of the original Top 25 this year are currently unranked. Five or six of them won't even end up going to a bowl.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

That's why there should be no such thing as "preseason polls".

There should be no polls at all until at least 5 weeks into the season, minimum.

Then... the first polls would be more representative of where teams actually are.


13 of the original Top 25 this year are currently unranked. Five or six of them won't even end up going to a bowl.

I will say Week 4.

 

[UPitt '89]

I will say Week 4.

I think the CFP does it exactly right. There are no CFP polls at all until after November 1st. By the time the first CFP polls came out, they were more representative and fair.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I agree wholeheartedly. Early season polls are meaningless and harmful to the chances of any team (outside of the top programs who get attention every year) who makes a quick improvement. But a team like ND or Michigan goes 4-0 after a 6 or 7 win season and you know they'll be back in the top 15.

Writers are the worst at making assessments. They should be removed from the polling and awards process.

 

[joeydavid]

1. Alabama
Current CFP Rank: 3
Pollster Grade: B+
- Alabama is only two off of their pre-season ranking. Not bad.

2. Oklahoma
Current CFP Rank: 10
Pollster Grade: B-
- Oklahoma has been underwhelming compared to their original ranking, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

3. Clemson
Current CFP Rank: 23
Pollster Grade: D-
- While Clemson has rebounded recently, everybody thought they were a shoo-in to be in playoff contention.

4. Ohio State
Current CFP Rank: 2
Pollster Grade: A
- Ohio State is right around where everyone expected them to be.

5. Georgia
Current CFP Rank: 1
Pollster Grade: B+
- In retrospect, hard to believe anybody thought there were four teams better than Georgia.

6. Texas A&M
Current CFP Rank: 15
Pollster Grade: C+
- After a very rough start to the year, A&M is playing the way people expected them to.

7. Iowa State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Iowa State was a huge miss. Currently 6-5 and barely bowl eligible.

8. Cincinnati
Current CFP Rank: 4
Pollster Grade: B+
- Personally I think 8th is where they belong, but enough other teams have underperformed to get them up to 4th.

9. Notre Dame
Current CFP Rank: 6
Pollster Grade: A-
- Notre Dame, love or hate them, is meeting expectations.

10. North Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Pollsters bought the crap that Mack Brown was selling. Like they do every year.

11. Oregon
Current CFP Rank: 11
Pollster Grade: A+
- Oregon is exactly where everyone thought they would be.

12. Wisconsin
Current CFP Rank: 14
Pollster Grade: A-
- The Badgers started the year 1-3, but have won 7 straight - many of them decisively - and are right around where everyone thought they'd end up.

13. Florida
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Florida has imploded to the point that they're looking for a new coach. What a polling miss.

14. Miami
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- The AP pollsters had 3 ACC teams in the Top 15. None of them are the 3 ACC teams in the Top 20 now.

15. USC
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school that got their ranking because of recruiting rankings and history, not for the actual product.

16. LSU
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school looking for a new coach. Currently in last place in the SEC-West.

17. Indiana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F---------
- If there was a grade below F, this would be it. The Hoosiers are about to have a 10-loss season. It is an absolute crime that anyone thought they should've been ranked at all.

18. Iowa
Current CFP Rank: 16
Pollster Grade: A
- I don't think Iowa deserves to be 16th ranked, but they are. And the pollsters had them right around here.

19. Penn State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D+
- If not for the Illinois debacle, this might be where Penn State was ranked. But as usual, they overranked a Jimmy Franklin team.

20. Washington
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- Washington lost to Montana in the opening week and never returned to the polls.

21. Texas
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade; F
- Texas is on a 6-game losing streak, their longest since 1956. Even though 5 of the 6 losses are by one score, they've been horrible.

22. Coastal Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D-
- CCU wouldn't be above ,500 in any of the P5 conferences, and the pollsters had no business EVER ranking them.

23. Louisana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- See Coastal Carolina.

24. Utah
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: B+
- The Utes have proven worthy of their pre-season ranking.

25. Arizona State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- ASU wasn't necessary a bad ranking here, but they've underperformed.


Biggest misses among the pre-season unranked:

NR. Michigan
Current CFP Rank: 5
Pollster Grade: D
- Hard to believe the AP pollsters didn't even have Michigan in the Top 25.

NR. Oklahoma State
Current CFP Rank: 7
Pollster Grade: D+
- They were in the "others receiving votes" in the pre-season poll.... but now that have a real shot at the playoffs.

NR. Baylor
Current CFP Rank: 8
Pollster Grade: D-
- Baylor has been far better than anyone could have predicted.

NR. Ole Miss
Current CFP Rank: 9
Pollster Grade: C-
- Pollsters had them at 27th, pre-season, so not a huge miss.

NR. Michigan State
Current CFP Rank: 12
Pollster Grade: C-
- I don't think the pollsters were that far off for the Spartans. Without a ref-aided comeback win against Michigan, they might not even be ranked.

NR. BYU
Current CFP Rank: 13
Pollster Grade: D
- BYU has played a fairly tough schedule for a non-P5 team and have shown themselves to be worthy of their rank.

NR. Pitt
Current CFP Rank: 17
Pollster Grade: D+
- It was fair to have Pitt unranked pre-season. Even our own fans predicted 8-4 or 9-3 at best.

NR. Wake Forest
Current CFP Rank: 18
Pollster Grade D+
- See Pitt.

NR. NC State
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: D
- NC State has a solid enough team and roster that they probably should've been at the back end of the Top 25 preseason.

NR. San Diego State
Current CFP Rank: 21
Pollster Grade: C
- I'm not going to question the pollsters on this one. I don't think the Aztecs would be .500 in any P5 conference.

NR. UTSA
Current CFP Rank: 22
Pollster Grade: C
- See Coastal Carolina. The AP pollsters had it right. They shouldn't be ranked.

NR. Houston
Current CFP Rank: 24
Pollster Grade: D
- Holgy was always going to have 10+ wins with that roster in that conference. Bad miss by pollsters.

NR. Arkansas
Current CFP Rank: 25
Pollster Grade: C
- There's always some SEC teams that overperforms to make up for the ones that underperform. This year it was Ole Miss and Arkansas.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE AP POLLSTERS: D+


The AP poll should be eliminated. Clearly, sportswriters - as a group - are incapable of accurately evaluating college football teams. There should be *NO* polls at all until November 1st. Let the season play out for a bit before making any polls. The CFP does it right.

Given the impact of confirmation bias leads to some of those Bs; D+ is generous.

 

[UPitt '89]

I agree wholeheartedly. Early season polls are meaningless and harmful to the chances of any team (outside of the top programs who get attention every year) who makes a quick improvement. But a team like ND or Michigan goes 4-0 after a 6 or 7 win season and you know they'll be back in the top 15.

Writers are the worst at making assessments. They should be removed from the polling and awards process.

It is amazing how many sports reporters are exceptionally bad at evaluation sports teams. I mean, their JOB is following and knowing the sports they're covering.... and I could pick 20 random Panther-Lair handles and they would come up with better Top 25 rankings in football and basketball than the AP.

Only weathermen can be as bad at their job as sports writers and still be employed.

 

[UPitt '89]

Given the impact of confirmation bias leads to some of those Bs; D+ is generous.

The people who make the CFP poll are not the same people who make the AP polls.... so not sure how much "confirmation bias" applies.

 

[HailtoPitt]

Why was Iowa St ever ranked so high in the first place?

 

[UPitt '89]

Why was Iowa St ever ranked so high in the first place?

Their roster and the way they finished last year.

In retrospect, very badly overrated. Not a whole lot different than North Carolina, to be honest.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Here ya go in no particular order. 2026 Preseason Top 20 AP Poll (by the way the Coaches Polls aren't too different)

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Georgia
4) Notre Dame
5) Oklahoma
6) USC
7) Clemson
8) Michigan
9) Miami
10) LSU
11) A&M
12) Wisconsin
13) Oregon
14) Florida
15) Penn State
16) Virginia Tech
17) Tennessee
18) Iowa
19) Oklahoma State
20) Cincinnati

 

[UPitt '89]

Here ya go in no particular order. 2026 Preseason Top 20 AP Poll (by the way the Coaches Polls aren't too different)

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Georgia
4) Notre Dame
5) Oklahoma
6) USC
7) Clemson
8) Michigan
9) Miami
10) LSU
11) A&M
12) Wisconsin
13) Oregon
14) Florida
15) Penn State
16) Virginia Tech
17) Tennessee
18) Iowa
19) Oklahoma State
20) Cincinnati

You have Virginia Tech too low... LOL.

They'll be predicted to win the Coastal Division, as they are almost every year.

 

[9nationalchampionships]

How in the hell are you going to sell preseason magazines without a preseason poll?

 

[HOF Coach]

1. Alabama
Current CFP Rank: 3
Pollster Grade: B+
- Alabama is only two off of their pre-season ranking. Not bad.

2. Oklahoma
Current CFP Rank: 10
Pollster Grade: B-
- Oklahoma has been underwhelming compared to their original ranking, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

3. Clemson
Current CFP Rank: 23
Pollster Grade: D-
- While Clemson has rebounded recently, everybody thought they were a shoo-in to be in playoff contention.

4. Ohio State
Current CFP Rank: 2
Pollster Grade: A
- Ohio State is right around where everyone expected them to be.

5. Georgia
Current CFP Rank: 1
Pollster Grade: B+
- In retrospect, hard to believe anybody thought there were four teams better than Georgia.

6. Texas A&M
Current CFP Rank: 15
Pollster Grade: C+
- After a very rough start to the year, A&M is playing the way people expected them to.

7. Iowa State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Iowa State was a huge miss. Currently 6-5 and barely bowl eligible.

8. Cincinnati
Current CFP Rank: 4
Pollster Grade: B+
- Personally I think 8th is where they belong, but enough other teams have underperformed to get them up to 4th.

9. Notre Dame
Current CFP Rank: 6
Pollster Grade: A-
- Notre Dame, love or hate them, is meeting expectations.

10. North Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Pollsters bought the crap that Mack Brown was selling. Like they do every year.

11. Oregon
Current CFP Rank: 11
Pollster Grade: A+
- Oregon is exactly where everyone thought they would be.

12. Wisconsin
Current CFP Rank: 14
Pollster Grade: A-
- The Badgers started the year 1-3, but have won 7 straight - many of them decisively - and are right around where everyone thought they'd end up.

13. Florida
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Florida has imploded to the point that they're looking for a new coach. What a polling miss.

14. Miami
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- The AP pollsters had 3 ACC teams in the Top 15. None of them are the 3 ACC teams in the Top 20 now.

15. USC
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school that got their ranking because of recruiting rankings and history, not for the actual product.

16. LSU
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school looking for a new coach. Currently in last place in the SEC-West.

17. Indiana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F---------
- If there was a grade below F, this would be it. The Hoosiers are about to have a 10-loss season. It is an absolute crime that anyone thought they should've been ranked at all.

18. Iowa
Current CFP Rank: 16
Pollster Grade: A
- I don't think Iowa deserves to be 16th ranked, but they are. And the pollsters had them right around here.

19. Penn State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D+
- If not for the Illinois debacle, this might be where Penn State was ranked. But as usual, they overranked a Jimmy Franklin team.

20. Washington
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- Washington lost to Montana in the opening week and never returned to the polls.

21. Texas
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade; F
- Texas is on a 6-game losing streak, their longest since 1956. Even though 5 of the 6 losses are by one score, they've been horrible.

22. Coastal Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D-
- CCU wouldn't be above ,500 in any of the P5 conferences, and the pollsters had no business EVER ranking them.

23. Louisana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- See Coastal Carolina.

24. Utah
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: B+
- The Utes have proven worthy of their pre-season ranking.

25. Arizona State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- ASU wasn't necessary a bad ranking here, but they've underperformed.


Biggest misses among the pre-season unranked:

NR. Michigan
Current CFP Rank: 5
Pollster Grade: D
- Hard to believe the AP pollsters didn't even have Michigan in the Top 25.

NR. Oklahoma State
Current CFP Rank: 7
Pollster Grade: D+
- They were in the "others receiving votes" in the pre-season poll.... but now that have a real shot at the playoffs.

NR. Baylor
Current CFP Rank: 8
Pollster Grade: D-
- Baylor has been far better than anyone could have predicted.

NR. Ole Miss
Current CFP Rank: 9
Pollster Grade: C-
- Pollsters had them at 27th, pre-season, so not a huge miss.

NR. Michigan State
Current CFP Rank: 12
Pollster Grade: C-
- I don't think the pollsters were that far off for the Spartans. Without a ref-aided comeback win against Michigan, they might not even be ranked.

NR. BYU
Current CFP Rank: 13
Pollster Grade: D
- BYU has played a fairly tough schedule for a non-P5 team and have shown themselves to be worthy of their rank.

NR. Pitt
Current CFP Rank: 17
Pollster Grade: D+
- It was fair to have Pitt unranked pre-season. Even our own fans predicted 8-4 or 9-3 at best.

NR. Wake Forest
Current CFP Rank: 18
Pollster Grade D+
- See Pitt.

NR. NC State
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: D
- NC State has a solid enough team and roster that they probably should've been at the back end of the Top 25 preseason.

NR. San Diego State
Current CFP Rank: 21
Pollster Grade: C
- I'm not going to question the pollsters on this one. I don't think the Aztecs would be .500 in any P5 conference.

NR. UTSA
Current CFP Rank: 22
Pollster Grade: C
- See Coastal Carolina. The AP pollsters had it right. They shouldn't be ranked.

NR. Houston
Current CFP Rank: 24
Pollster Grade: D
- Holgy was always going to have 10+ wins with that roster in that conference. Bad miss by pollsters.

NR. Arkansas
Current CFP Rank: 25
Pollster Grade: C
- There's always some SEC teams that overperforms to make up for the ones that underperform. This year it was Ole Miss and Arkansas.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE AP POLLSTERS: D+


The AP poll should be eliminated. Clearly, sportswriters - as a group - are incapable of accurately evaluating college football teams. There should be *NO* polls at all until November 1st. Let the season play out for a bit before making any polls. The CFP does it right.

"The AP Poll is irrelevant. How many times do I have to say it?" - Mark Packer

Thank you, @UPitt '89 for confirming what Packer tells everyone, EVERY YEAR, when the preseason AP Poll is published! 👍

 

[joeydavid]

The people who make the CFP poll are not the same people who make the AP polls.... so not sure how much "confirmation bias" applies.

If they did blind ranking of resumes, the current top 25 would look a good bit different- so there's still bias off of expected performance.

 

[joeydavid]

How in the hell are you going to sell preseason magazines without a preseason poll?

Yeah, that would take actual work...

 

[UPitt '89]

If they did blind ranking of resumes, the current top 25 would look a good bit different- so there's still bias off of expected performance.

A little, that's true.

But I think blind resumes of the the top 10-12 would be pretty close to what we currently see.

 

[TFBaum]

1. Alabama
Current CFP Rank: 3
Pollster Grade: B+
- Alabama is only two off of their pre-season ranking. Not bad.

2. Oklahoma
Current CFP Rank: 10
Pollster Grade: B-
- Oklahoma has been underwhelming compared to their original ranking, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

3. Clemson
Current CFP Rank: 23
Pollster Grade: D-
- While Clemson has rebounded recently, everybody thought they were a shoo-in to be in playoff contention.

4. Ohio State
Current CFP Rank: 2
Pollster Grade: A
- Ohio State is right around where everyone expected them to be.

5. Georgia
Current CFP Rank: 1
Pollster Grade: B+
- In retrospect, hard to believe anybody thought there were four teams better than Georgia.

6. Texas A&M
Current CFP Rank: 15
Pollster Grade: C+
- After a very rough start to the year, A&M is playing the way people expected them to.

7. Iowa State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Iowa State was a huge miss. Currently 6-5 and barely bowl eligible.

8. Cincinnati
Current CFP Rank: 4
Pollster Grade: B+
- Personally I think 8th is where they belong, but enough other teams have underperformed to get them up to 4th.

9. Notre Dame
Current CFP Rank: 6
Pollster Grade: A-
- Notre Dame, love or hate them, is meeting expectations.

10. North Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Pollsters bought the crap that Mack Brown was selling. Like they do every year.

11. Oregon
Current CFP Rank: 11
Pollster Grade: A+
- Oregon is exactly where everyone thought they would be.

12. Wisconsin
Current CFP Rank: 14
Pollster Grade: A-
- The Badgers started the year 1-3, but have won 7 straight - many of them decisively - and are right around where everyone thought they'd end up.

13. Florida
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Florida has imploded to the point that they're looking for a new coach. What a polling miss.

14. Miami
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- The AP pollsters had 3 ACC teams in the Top 15. None of them are the 3 ACC teams in the Top 20 now.

15. USC
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school that got their ranking because of recruiting rankings and history, not for the actual product.

16. LSU
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school looking for a new coach. Currently in last place in the SEC-West.

17. Indiana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F---------
- If there was a grade below F, this would be it. The Hoosiers are about to have a 10-loss season. It is an absolute crime that anyone thought they should've been ranked at all.

18. Iowa
Current CFP Rank: 16
Pollster Grade: A
- I don't think Iowa deserves to be 16th ranked, but they are. And the pollsters had them right around here.

19. Penn State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D+
- If not for the Illinois debacle, this might be where Penn State was ranked. But as usual, they overranked a Jimmy Franklin team.

20. Washington
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- Washington lost to Montana in the opening week and never returned to the polls.

21. Texas
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade; F
- Texas is on a 6-game losing streak, their longest since 1956. Even though 5 of the 6 losses are by one score, they've been horrible.

22. Coastal Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D-
- CCU wouldn't be above ,500 in any of the P5 conferences, and the pollsters had no business EVER ranking them.

23. Louisana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- See Coastal Carolina.

24. Utah
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: B+
- The Utes have proven worthy of their pre-season ranking.

25. Arizona State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- ASU wasn't necessary a bad ranking here, but they've underperformed.


Biggest misses among the pre-season unranked:

NR. Michigan
Current CFP Rank: 5
Pollster Grade: D
- Hard to believe the AP pollsters didn't even have Michigan in the Top 25.

NR. Oklahoma State
Current CFP Rank: 7
Pollster Grade: D+
- They were in the "others receiving votes" in the pre-season poll.... but now that have a real shot at the playoffs.

NR. Baylor
Current CFP Rank: 8
Pollster Grade: D-
- Baylor has been far better than anyone could have predicted.

NR. Ole Miss
Current CFP Rank: 9
Pollster Grade: C-
- Pollsters had them at 27th, pre-season, so not a huge miss.

NR. Michigan State
Current CFP Rank: 12
Pollster Grade: C-
- I don't think the pollsters were that far off for the Spartans. Without a ref-aided comeback win against Michigan, they might not even be ranked.

NR. BYU
Current CFP Rank: 13
Pollster Grade: D
- BYU has played a fairly tough schedule for a non-P5 team and have shown themselves to be worthy of their rank.

NR. Pitt
Current CFP Rank: 17
Pollster Grade: D+
- It was fair to have Pitt unranked pre-season. Even our own fans predicted 8-4 or 9-3 at best.

NR. Wake Forest
Current CFP Rank: 18
Pollster Grade D+
- See Pitt.

NR. NC State
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: D
- NC State has a solid enough team and roster that they probably should've been at the back end of the Top 25 preseason.

NR. San Diego State
Current CFP Rank: 21
Pollster Grade: C
- I'm not going to question the pollsters on this one. I don't think the Aztecs would be .500 in any P5 conference.

NR. UTSA
Current CFP Rank: 22
Pollster Grade: C
- See Coastal Carolina. The AP pollsters had it right. They shouldn't be ranked.

NR. Houston
Current CFP Rank: 24
Pollster Grade: D
- Holgy was always going to have 10+ wins with that roster in that conference. Bad miss by pollsters.

NR. Arkansas
Current CFP Rank: 25
Pollster Grade: C
- There's always some SEC teams that overperforms to make up for the ones that underperform. This year it was Ole Miss and Arkansas.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE AP POLLSTERS: D+


The AP poll should be eliminated. Clearly, sportswriters - as a group - are incapable of accurately evaluating college football teams. There should be *NO* polls at all until November 1st. Let the season play out for a bit before making any polls. The CFP does it right.

You should do a correlation between conferences and attendance

 

[UPitt '89]

You should do a correlation between conferences and attendance

There is absolutely nothing I care less about than attendance.

 

[TFBaum]

There is absolutely nothing I care less about than attendance.

My point is the preseason is a popularity contest

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

This tweet explains exactly the fallacy of Preseason Polls.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Actually I meant this tweet. This says it all.

 

[RaleighPittFan]

"The AP Poll is irrelevant. How many times do I have to say it?" - Mark Packard

Thank you, @UPitt '89 for confirming what Packard tells everyone, EVERY YEAR, when the preseason AP Poll is published! 👍

Like the car? Or, the guy who is on the ACCN?

 

[RaleighPittFan]

"The AP Poll is irrelevant. How many times do I have to say it?" - Mark Packar

Thank you, @UPitt '89 for confirming what Packar tells everyone, EVERY YEAR, when the preseason AP Poll is published! 👍

Mark Packer

Mark Packer is the co-host of ACC Network's weekday afternoon ACC PM show

espnpressroom.com

 

[HOF Coach]

Mark Packer

Mark Packer is the co-host of ACC Network's weekday afternoon ACC PM show

espnpressroom.com

I get 3 tries for a dollar, right? 😉

 

[anon_d97v9o3a8b6xr]

I absolutely hate preseason polls. You get totally screwed later if you aren’t in the preseason poll and start playing well, and too many teams get overhyped. I wish they would just do a week 4 or 5, but they all need to get clicks, sell magazines, sell subscriptions, and have things to discuss before the season starts. I hate early talk of NFL draft stock too.

 

[303vND]

1. Alabama
Current CFP Rank: 3
Pollster Grade: B+
- Alabama is only two off of their pre-season ranking. Not bad.

2. Oklahoma
Current CFP Rank: 10
Pollster Grade: B-
- Oklahoma has been underwhelming compared to their original ranking, but they're still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

3. Clemson
Current CFP Rank: 23
Pollster Grade: D-
- While Clemson has rebounded recently, everybody thought they were a shoo-in to be in playoff contention.

4. Ohio State
Current CFP Rank: 2
Pollster Grade: A
- Ohio State is right around where everyone expected them to be.

5. Georgia
Current CFP Rank: 1
Pollster Grade: B+
- In retrospect, hard to believe anybody thought there were four teams better than Georgia.

6. Texas A&M
Current CFP Rank: 15
Pollster Grade: C+
- After a very rough start to the year, A&M is playing the way people expected them to.

7. Iowa State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Iowa State was a huge miss. Currently 6-5 and barely bowl eligible.

8. Cincinnati
Current CFP Rank: 4
Pollster Grade: B+
- Personally I think 8th is where they belong, but enough other teams have underperformed to get them up to 4th.

9. Notre Dame
Current CFP Rank: 6
Pollster Grade: A-
- Notre Dame, love or hate them, is meeting expectations.

10. North Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Pollsters bought the crap that Mack Brown was selling. Like they do every year.

11. Oregon
Current CFP Rank: 11
Pollster Grade: A+
- Oregon is exactly where everyone thought they would be.

12. Wisconsin
Current CFP Rank: 14
Pollster Grade: A-
- The Badgers started the year 1-3, but have won 7 straight - many of them decisively - and are right around where everyone thought they'd end up.

13. Florida
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Florida has imploded to the point that they're looking for a new coach. What a polling miss.

14. Miami
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- The AP pollsters had 3 ACC teams in the Top 15. None of them are the 3 ACC teams in the Top 20 now.

15. USC
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school that got their ranking because of recruiting rankings and history, not for the actual product.

16. LSU
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- Another school looking for a new coach. Currently in last place in the SEC-West.

17. Indiana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F---------
- If there was a grade below F, this would be it. The Hoosiers are about to have a 10-loss season. It is an absolute crime that anyone thought they should've been ranked at all.

18. Iowa
Current CFP Rank: 16
Pollster Grade: A
- I don't think Iowa deserves to be 16th ranked, but they are. And the pollsters had them right around here.

19. Penn State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D+
- If not for the Illinois debacle, this might be where Penn State was ranked. But as usual, they overranked a Jimmy Franklin team.

20. Washington
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- Washington lost to Montana in the opening week and never returned to the polls.

21. Texas
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade; F
- Texas is on a 6-game losing streak, their longest since 1956. Even though 5 of the 6 losses are by one score, they've been horrible.

22. Coastal Carolina
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D-
- CCU wouldn't be above ,500 in any of the P5 conferences, and the pollsters had no business EVER ranking them.

23. Louisana
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: F
- See Coastal Carolina.

24. Utah
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: B+
- The Utes have proven worthy of their pre-season ranking.

25. Arizona State
Current CFP Rank: Unranked
Pollster Grade: D
- ASU wasn't necessary a bad ranking here, but they've underperformed.


Biggest misses among the pre-season unranked:

NR. Michigan
Current CFP Rank: 5
Pollster Grade: D
- Hard to believe the AP pollsters didn't even have Michigan in the Top 25.

NR. Oklahoma State
Current CFP Rank: 7
Pollster Grade: D+
- They were in the "others receiving votes" in the pre-season poll.... but now that have a real shot at the playoffs.

NR. Baylor
Current CFP Rank: 8
Pollster Grade: D-
- Baylor has been far better than anyone could have predicted.

NR. Ole Miss
Current CFP Rank: 9
Pollster Grade: C-
- Pollsters had them at 27th, pre-season, so not a huge miss.

NR. Michigan State
Current CFP Rank: 12
Pollster Grade: C-
- I don't think the pollsters were that far off for the Spartans. Without a ref-aided comeback win against Michigan, they might not even be ranked.

NR. BYU
Current CFP Rank: 13
Pollster Grade: D
- BYU has played a fairly tough schedule for a non-P5 team and have shown themselves to be worthy of their rank.

NR. Pitt
Current CFP Rank: 17
Pollster Grade: D+
- It was fair to have Pitt unranked pre-season. Even our own fans predicted 8-4 or 9-3 at best.

NR. Wake Forest
Current CFP Rank: 18
Pollster Grade D+
- See Pitt.

NR. NC State
Current CFP Rank: 19
Pollster Grade: D
- NC State has a solid enough team and roster that they probably should've been at the back end of the Top 25 preseason.

NR. San Diego State
Current CFP Rank: 21
Pollster Grade: C
- I'm not going to question the pollsters on this one. I don't think the Aztecs would be .500 in any P5 conference.

NR. UTSA
Current CFP Rank: 22
Pollster Grade: C
- See Coastal Carolina. The AP pollsters had it right. They shouldn't be ranked.

NR. Houston
Current CFP Rank: 24
Pollster Grade: D
- Holgy was always going to have 10+ wins with that roster in that conference. Bad miss by pollsters.

NR. Arkansas
Current CFP Rank: 25
Pollster Grade: C
- There's always some SEC teams that overperforms to make up for the ones that underperform. This year it was Ole Miss and Arkansas.



OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE AP POLLSTERS: D+


The AP poll should be eliminated. Clearly, sportswriters - as a group - are incapable of accurately evaluating college football teams. There should be *NO* polls at all until November 1st. Let the season play out for a bit before making any polls. The CFP does it right.

Nice work and I totally agree with your assessment.

 

[Upg bobcat]

Is the coaches poll, or Sagarin or another computer, that much better with preseason rankings than the AP? I doubt it ... which goes to the point others have made that the CFP poll has it right by not releasing any rankings until later in the year.