Midwest bracket
- Thread starter Cap pitt
- Start date
Who is strong: Texas, Texas A&M, Houston
Who is beatable: ISU, Indiana, Xavier
Pitt's chances: better than most think
It’s a game of matchups, right? We like ours in our first two games, but I’m not so sure about Xavier. That ls a good shooting team, which may not be a good match up for us, and isn’t something you like running into in March. But maybe with their injury they are not as formidable? I hope we get to find out.
I have the two Elite Eight teams as Houston and Texas A&M. I actually think this is a great region for Pitt; not only is Iowa State beatable, but I’d put Xavier on upset alert against Kennasaw State. #14 seeds that have adjO/D rankings within 40 spots of each other are 5-10 the past 14 years; every other #14 seed is 2-39. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but the conditions are there.
Trying to understand the bolded text. Does this mean that #14 seeds that have a combined adjusted O/D (assuming Kenpom) that's within 40 spots of the combined adjusted O/D of the #3 seed are 5-10 over the past 14 years?
Close; any 14 seeds that have an absolute value of <=40 between their adjusted offensive and defensive ratings are 5-10. Essentially, it’s saying that offensively and defensively balanced teams have the best chance at pulling off the upset.
It’s not comparing their ratings to their opponent, but I picked KSU because Xavier also had a few injuries coming into the tournament.
But what if both of their ratings are poor? Like 200th on offense and 220th on defense? That's still within 40 of each other.
Don't they have to be within 40 of each other and also be GOOD?
You’re not wrong; I think that’s when you need to go with your gut with who you pick. Analytics like that don’t always take context into consideration.
Uh oh, Owls are starting to fall apart. Nice run by the Musketeers; about to make this a one-possession game.
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