T-Ranketology has Pitt In

[Fredact]

Unlike the braketology that does the meaningless "if the season ended today" stuff, this site does an actual prediction of what they think the bracket will look like, using models to predict out the remaining games. They have Pitt as the next to last team in, though with a probability just under 50%.

T-Ranketology

 

[whirlybird optio]

Unlike the braketology that does the meaningless "if the season ended today" stuff, this site does an actual prediction of what they think the bracket will look like, using models to predict out the remaining games. They have Pitt as the next to last team in, though with a probability just under 50%.

T-Ranketology

South Florida and Richmond are interesting teams to watch. He has USF in the field, a lot have Richmond, for being in 1st right now, but neither have any hopes of an at large.

Not many opportunities for bid stealers this year. Really the A-10 other than Dayton is the big one.

 

[DT_PITT]

Unlike the braketology that does the meaningless "if the season ended today" stuff, this site does an actual prediction of what they think the bracket will look like, using models to predict out the remaining games. They have Pitt as the next to last team in, though with a probability just under 50%.

T-Ranketology

This gives me some hope.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

South Florida and Richmond are interesting teams to watch. He has USF in the field, a lot have Richmond, for being in 1st right now, but neither have any hopes of an at large.

Not many opportunities for bid stealers this year. Really the A-10 other than Dayton is the big one.

I disagree on USF. The American is a decent conference. They are going to 17-1. Lets say they lose to FAU in the conference championship, they'd be 26-6 after starting 2-4. Their NET would be low 70s probably which isnt good but that's too many wins from a half-decent conference.

And I wouldn't say Richmond has no shot. They and USF have 7 road wins. If Richmond loses in the final, they'd be 26-8. Again, that's a lot of wins in a half-decent conference. NET would probably be low 60s. But they and USF have only 1 Q1 win and to go along with 2 Q3 losses (Rich) and 2 Q4 losses (USF).

I'd put USF in if they lose in the final

 

[Sam Young 23]

USF has zero shot to get in without winning the tournament. Not with the metrics

 

[whirlybird optio]

I disagree on USF. The American is a decent conference. They are going to 17-1. Lets say they lose to FAU in the conference championship, they'd be 26-6 after starting 2-4. Their NET would be low 70s probably which isnt good but that's too many wins from a half-decent conference.

And I wouldn't say Richmond has no shot. They and USF have 7 road wins. If Richmond loses in the final, they'd be 26-8. Again, that's a lot of wins in a half-decent conference. NET would probably be low 60s. But they and USF have only 1 Q1 win and to go along with 2 Q3 losses (Rich) and 2 Q4 losses (USF).

I'd put USF in if they lose in the final

The metrics are awful. Most of the bracketologists have all said they can’t get in without the tourney win. Neither can Richmond.

USF, right now, is a 13 seed. They aren’t going to move up 2 seed lines by losing lol.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

We've been trying to quantify what we need to do for weeks, but what sucks right now is only two Q1 wins and probably ending up with a Q4 loss. That was tough to anticipate. I think one win in the tournament (assuming double bye - add one to the total if we're only a single bye) is now a must, and we may need two.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The metrics are awful. Most of the bracketologists have all said they can’t get in without the tourney win. Neither can Richmond.

USF, right now, is a 13 seed. They aren’t going to move up 2 seed lines by losing lol.

24-2 in final 26 games if they lose in the final. The American is the 10th best NET conference. I cant justify leaving out a 26-6 AAC team. That's total domination of a half-decent league. FAU found 4 losses in that league and they are in. BTW, who does the schedule for the AAC? USF and FAU only played once??? I get that USF wasnt supposed to be good but isnt that a rivalry you want to cultivate? The only 2 Florida teams separated by 4 hours in a league where those 2 have to fly everywhere.

Speaking of conference NET, how much sense does this make:

4. ACC - 27% (4 out of 15)
7. MWC - 55% (6 out of 11)
10. American - 7% (1 out of 14)

 

[upj87]

The metrics are awful. Most of the bracketologists have all said they can’t get in without the tourney win. Neither can Richmond.

USF, right now, is a 13 seed. They aren’t going to move up 2 seed lines by losing lol.

Never thought I'd say this but I sure miss old fat guys in lousy sport coats in a room somewhere using the "they're better than them" metrics of years past making the bubble calls on who gets in and who does not...The metrics for Pitt should be pretty simple, win the next two and you are in...No need to whine if they do not and are not in nor any need to do integral calculus trying to figure the metrics out today...

 

[Cavalier Panther]

This gives me some hope.

 

[whirlybird optio]

24-2 in final 26 games if they lose in the final. The American is the 10th best NET conference. I cant justify leaving out a 26-6 AAC team. That's total domination of a half-decent league. FAU found 4 losses in that league and they are in. BTW, who does the schedule for the AAC? USF and FAU only played once??? I get that USF wasnt supposed to be good but isnt that a rivalry you want to cultivate? The only 2 Florida teams separated by 4 hours in a league where those 2 have to fly everywhere.

Speaking of conference NET, how much sense does this make:

4. ACC - 27% (4 out of 15)
7. MWC - 55% (6 out of 11)
10. American - 7% (1 out of 14)

I hear you lol - but again, they are, at absolute best a 12 or a 13 right now. No one has them as an at large type seeding. How do they move up taking a bad loss, or even a so/so loss. They are going to jump 1-2 seed lines with a loss? I don’t see it. No one does

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Never thought I'd say this but I sure miss old fat guys in lousy sport coats in a room somewhere using the "they're better than them" metrics of years past making the bubble calls on who gets in and who does not...The metrics for Pitt should be pretty simple, win the next two and you are in...No need to whine if they do not and are not in nor any need to do integral calculus trying to figure the metrics out today...

I'm trying to decide what changed from the days when a team in a power conference was a slam dunk to get in at 21-10. I guess more mid-majors have just emerged throughout the years.

 

[Blair_45]

I still think Pitt is in if they beat NC State Saturday night and at least have a good showing in the ACC Tournament 4/5 game and not pull a Duke blowout game from last year. I just think the road wins and the good net and the odds in general all point to Pitt getting in the tournament as they should be.

 

[BreakingPitt]

You guys trying to figure out if they get in or not is insane, some for like a month now.
Just watch the games and see what happens. Not worth driving yourself nuts.
Beat NC State, and then the 12-13 seed in the tournament.
Then beat Clemson as the 4-5 matchup, but if they lose and it's close I think they will be ok.

 

[PittGlory]

24-2 in final 26 games if they lose in the final. The American is the 10th best NET conference. I cant justify leaving out a 26-6 AAC team. That's total domination of a half-decent league. FAU found 4 losses in that league and they are in. BTW, who does the schedule for the AAC? USF and FAU only played once??? I get that USF wasnt supposed to be good but isnt that a rivalry you want to cultivate? The only 2 Florida teams separated by 4 hours in a league where those 2 have to fly everywhere.

Speaking of conference NET, how much sense does this make:

4. ACC - 27% (4 out of 15)
7. MWC - 55% (6 out of 11)
10. American - 7% (1 out of 14)

SMF, sorry but can explain your % and (x out of yy) references

 

[HailToPitt1985]

We've been trying to quantify what we need to do for weeks, but what sucks right now is only two Q1 wins and probably ending up with a Q4 loss. That was tough to anticipate. I think one win in the tournament (assuming double bye - add one to the total if we're only a single bye) is now a must, and we may need two.

I think you may be right. We may have to win 2 in the ACCT to get in to the NCAAT. One in the tournament makes it's doubtful, of course assuming we beat NCState first.

 

[DT_PITT]

I think you may be right. We may have to win 2 in the ACCT to get in to the NCAAT. One in the tournament makes it's doubtful, of course assuming we beat NCState first.

We'll need a quality ACC tournament win.

We can win just one in the ACC tournament if we get the double by and beat the #5 seed. If we get the five seed, beating the 12 seed doesn't help us. We'd need to win that + plus a win against the four seed.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

We'll need a quality ACC tournament win.

We can win just one in the ACC tournament if we get the double by and beat the #5 seed. If we get the five seed, beating the 12 seed doesn't help us. We'd need to win that + plus a win against the four seed.

Agreed. Beating a 12 doesn't do much for us.

 

[gary2]

I still think Pitt is in if they beat NC State Saturday night and at least have a good showing in the ACC Tournament 4/5 game and not pull a Duke blowout game from last year. I just think the road wins and the good net and the odds in general all point to Pitt getting in the tournament as they should be.

I see Pitt as the 4th best team in the ACC (we played Duke twice and Clemson twice)

The ACC is getting 4 or 5.

Barring a future stinker. The committee will have us in.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I hear you lol - but again, they are, at absolute best a 12 or a 13 right now. No one has them as an at large type seeding. How do they move up taking a bad loss, or even a so/so loss. They are going to jump 1-2 seed lines with a loss? I don’t see it. No one does

Nobody has to move them up. Everyone has them as the AQ. The committee hasnt done their bracket yet, they don't have to justify moving USF up or down because they dont have prior brackets to reconcile.

They may very well be 26-5, playing a 3:15 game against FAU. Wouldn't it be super easy to have them in the field at that point regardless instead of making a bunch of last minute changes? Another reason I always thought that the Selection Show should be prime time 8PM with crazy good ratings for all lead-in shows. Feels like everything happens too fast on Sunday.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Agreed. Beating a 12 doesn't do much for us.

Yeah, a game like that... a win is like you didn't even play at all, and a loss is a nuke to your tournament chances.

Just feels the the carrot keeps moving, which is a little deflating. We've done so much these past two months, and it's still not enough to overcome November (not just our results, but also conferences' perceptions, etc.), basically.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yeah, a game like that... a win is like you didn't even play at all, and a loss is a nuke to your tournament chances.

Just feels the the carrot keeps moving, which is a little deflating. We've done so much these past two months, and it's still not enough to overcome November (not just our results, but also conferences' perceptions, etc.), basically.

And losing at home to Syracuse isnt that big of a deal for a bubble team. Missouri is nowhere as bad as they've played. I feel like they are doing this on purpose. What are the chances they were going to go 0-18?

 

[whirlybird optio]

Nobody has to move them up. Everyone has them as the AQ. The committee hasnt done their bracket yet, they don't have to justify moving USF up or down because they dont have prior brackets to reconcile.

They may very well be 26-5, playing a 3:15 game against FAU. Wouldn't it be super easy to have them in the field at that point regardless instead of making a bunch of last minute changes? Another reason I always thought that the Selection Show should be prime time 8PM with crazy good ratings for all lead-in shows. Feels like everything happens too fast on Sunday.

In that scenario, esp if FAU loses tonight against North Texas, maybe only the winner gets in.

FAU profile more than shaky. 2Q4 losses. Only 1 Q1 win.

But to your bracket point - if USF is a 13 on the mock bracket the committee does before the weekend, and then LOSES, how do you shuffle them to a 11? They are not, no way no how, an 11 seed right now. Not with an 80 net and no good wins and 2 Q4 losses. So, if they lose the championship, they - by definition - can’t keep them a 13. They would need to move up.

I really don’t think this one is hard. Even the USF coach knows they have to win out.

 

[Blair_45]

T-Ranketology now has Pitt in as the last team getting the last 4 byes. They have them solidly in the tournament as this point.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

And losing at home to Syracuse isnt that big of a deal for a bubble team. Missouri is nowhere as bad as they've played. I feel like they are doing this on purpose. What are the chances they were going to go 0-18?

Ultimately, there are just so many teams for a limited number of spots and there simply aren't right or wrong answers. No matter how one tries to quantify it, it's subjective. But it has us clicking and talking about it, so it isn't going anywhere. But yeah - Missouri wasn't even close to the same team back then. I get that the whole season counts in every sport, but when taken in conjunction with how subjective this sport is, some stuff just doesn't sit well with me when it comes to weighting November and February/etc. games equally.

I mean, I'm a broken record with this but quads in and of themselves are just so random. Why not make it 8ths? 32nds? So goofy.

 

[pierre93]

T-Ranketology now has Pitt in as the last team getting the last 4 byes. They have them solidly in the tournament as this point.

Common sense without any hidden agendas should have Pitt in the NCAA tournament. We have a solid team H2P!!!!

 

[pierre93]

Ultimately, there are just so many teams for a limited number of spots and there simply aren't right or wrong answers. No matter how one tries to quantify it, it's subjective. But it has us clicking and talking about it, so it isn't going anywhere. But yeah - Missouri wasn't even close to the same team back then. I get that the whole season counts in every sport, but when taken in conjunction with how subjective this sport is, some stuff just doesn't sit well with me when it comes to weighting November and February/etc. games equally.

I mean, I'm a broken record with this but quads in and of themselves are just so random. Why not make it 8ths? 32nds? So goofy.

Popularity contest at this point and the big10 will get their share of teams in. It's a J-O-K-E

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

In that scenario, esp if FAU loses tonight against North Texas, maybe only the winner gets in.

FAU profile more than shaky. 2Q4 losses. Only 1 Q1 win.

But to your bracket point - if USF is a 13 on the mock bracket the committee does before the weekend, and then LOSES, how do you shuffle them to a 11? They are not, no way no how, an 11 seed right now. Not with an 80 net and no good wins and 2 Q4 losses. So, if they lose the championship, they - by definition - can’t keep them a 13. They would need to move up.

I really don’t think this one is hard. Even the USF coach knows they have to win out.

They dont have to be an 11 to play in Dayton. BYU played Iona as 14 seeds in Dayton about 10 years ago. In a situation where USF loses in the final, they could make them a 13 and have them play someone like Pitt, SHU, Wake, etc for the 13 seed. Or they could jump them up to an 11 to play those teams. There's really no rule on how to handle a situation like that. On Bracket Matrix, they are the best 12 so they arent as far away as you think.

I agree on FAU. If they lose at UNT or home with Memphis, they may not get an auto. If they lose both, they certainly need to win the conference tournament.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Popularity contest at this point and the big10 will get their share of teams in. It's a J-O-K-E

Honestly, it's the "lesser" conferences I have a bigger problem with in basketball. The Mountain West is way overvalued. And then there are some mid-majors who grade out pretty well that I don't think are that good (maybe I'm wrong). On top of that, the Big 12 and Big East are metrics darlings, when I think the reality is there are teams from other conferences (Pitt or Syracuse, for instance) that would probably fare just as well as some of them. Like I've watched TCU play.... meh.

 

[pierre93]

Honestly, it's the "lesser" conferences I have a bigger problem with in basketball. The Mountain West is way overvalued. And then there are some mid-majors who grade out pretty well that I don't think are that good (maybe I'm wrong). On top of that, the Big 12 and Big East are metrics darlings, when I think the reality is there are teams from other conferences (Pitt or Syracuse, for instance) that would probably fare just as well as some of them. Like I've watched TCU play.... meh.

This as well, it's ridiculous and the same BS every year. It's a flawed system IMO

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

The Mountain West is 1-5 against the Big 12, has no games against the SEC and Big 10, was 2-3 against the ACC, and 2-1 against the Big East. 5-7 against the Big Sky?!!? Are they seriously going to get all these teams in by beating up on the PAC 12 and Summit?

Sagarin's computer has them as the 8th best conference, below the AAC in addition to the usual six.

Colorado St. is the one that would bother me. Is there any recency bias? They're 8-8 in their last 16, lost 3 of their last 4. They lost to Wyoming while we were beating Duke. I just don't see it.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Honestly, it's the "lesser" conferences I have a bigger problem with in basketball. The Mountain West is way overvalued. And then there are some mid-majors who grade out pretty well that I don't think are that good (maybe I'm wrong). On top of that, the Big 12 and Big East are metrics darlings, when I think the reality is there are teams from other conferences (Pitt or Syracuse, for instance) that would probably fare just as well as some of them. Like I've watched TCU play.... meh.

UCF and Cincinnati are good examples of what just showing up for B12 games does for your NET. Neither team is better than say VT or Miami or maybe even BC. I fact, Miami blew out UCF

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The Mountain West is 1-5 against the Big 12, has no games against the SEC and Big 10, was 2-3 against the ACC, and 2-1 against the Big East. 5-7 against the Big Sky?!!? Are they seriously going to get all these teams in by beating up on the PAC 12 and Summit?

Sagarin's computer has them as the 8th best conference, below the AAC in addition to the usual six.

Colorado St. is the one that would bother me. Is there any recency bias? They're 8-8 in their last 16, lost 3 of their last 4. They lost to Wyoming while we were beating Duke. I just don't see it.

And it was Nevada over GT and Colorado State over BC. Congrats on that.

Boise is 12-5 in the MWC but 0-2 in the ACC. Maybe they arent that good?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

UCF and Cincinnati are good examples of what just showing up for B12 games does for your NET. Neither team is better than say VT or Miami or maybe even BC. I fact, Miami blew out UCF

Yeah, pretty much. I know NET wasn't around at the time, but I do wonder if we were on the other end of this back in the Big East days.

Like, I'm sure the hype is justified in the eyes of Big 12 fans. In the last five final fours, they've had:

Kansas
Texas Tech
Baylor (won it all), Houston (wasn't in B12 at the time, obviously)
Kansas (won it all)
No one last season

But pretty good recent representation, all in all.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yeah, pretty much. I know NET wasn't around at the time, but I do wonder if we were on the other end of this back in the Big East days.

Like, I'm sure the hype is justified in the eyes of Big 12 fans. In the last five final fours, they've had:

Kansas
Texas Tech
Baylor (won it all), Houston (wasn't in B12 at the time, obviously)
Kansas (won it all)
No one last season

But pretty good recent representation, all in all.

I think the Big 12 is good. They or the SEC is the best conference but the gap between those leagues and the ACC is small. See head to head records.

 

[SteelPhish]

Yeah, pretty much. I know NET wasn't around at the time, but I do wonder if we were on the other end of this back in the Big East days.

Like, I'm sure the hype is justified in the eyes of Big 12 fans. In the last five final fours, they've had:

Kansas
Texas Tech
Baylor (won it all), Houston (wasn't in B12 at the time, obviously)
Kansas (won it all)
No one last season

But pretty good recent representation, all in all.

We'll need a quality ACC tournament win.

We can win just one in the ACC tournament if we get the double by and beat the #5 seed. If we get the five seed, beating the 12 seed doesn't help us. We'd need to win that + plus a win against the four seed.

I agree with this. I cannot see how anyone truly believes we are in with just a win against NC State.

Pitt is only showing up in 4 of the brackets on Bracketmatrix of like 80 total. There are guys like Lunardi that are often wrong but collectively the Bracketmatrix has been on in terms of who gets in. There is very rarely a team that gets in that isn’t showing up in a significant portion of the brackets.

I agree that Pitt deserves to be in based on recent play but we watch them every time they play. The committee just doesn’t have the time to have familiarity to dig that deeply and especially with a team that doesn’t really bring more eyeballs to the screen.

I think Pitt’s chances are as follows:

Lose to NC State - only chance would be AQ
Beat NC State - lose first game in ACC, 20%
Beat NC Stste and win first game - 60%
Make ACC Final - 90%

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Lose to NC State - only chance would be AQ

I don't think we'd have to win the ACCT if we lost to NC State, but we might have to win three games in it (which would basically mean getting to the championship).

 

[Blair_45]

Jerry Palm of CBS now has Pitt as his last team in his first four out. They have moved ahead of Wake Forest in Palm’s bracket. Get a New Mexico loss tonight and a few other odds and ends to happen and Pitt will start showing up in a lot more brackets within the next week or so as we approach 10 days until selection Sunday.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I don't think we'd have to win the ACCT if we lost to NC State, but we might have to win three games in it (which would basically mean getting to the championship).

Yea. If we lose to NC St, we'd need to win 3 and make the final. Dont need to win it.

Assuming we beat NC St

- dont get double bye and lose Wednesday: 5% chance to get in

- dont get double bye and win Wed but lose Thursday: 30%

- dont get double bye and win Wed and Thu: 90%

- get double bye and lose Thursday: 30%

- get double bye and win Thursday: 90%

We need 1 more Q1 to feel fairly safe. People saying conference tournaments dont matter. They do when you only have 2 Q1 wins.

 

[pittchagg]

Agreed. Beating a 12 doesn't do much for us.

It is a win. We’re sitting right on the margins, but the efficiency metrics are more than good enough to get us in. It’s the reverse of last year’s bubble situation, where we just couldn’t blow it against GT or look like garbage against Duke. We did the second one, which is why we were in Dayton.

We just need to win games to improve the resume metrics. Every win does that, even if it’s only by a little bit. Last year’s resume metrics were good but the efficiency metrics were in the toilet. This year’s efficiency metrics are great but the resume metrics aren’t as good. Win by one point, win by thirty - doesn’t matter. Lose by one point, lose by thirty - doesn’t matter.