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Must win or back to bubble tonight

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Pitt2006

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Jun 19, 2018
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At one point, Pitt had a solid 8-5 record for q1/2 games. Virginia is hanging to a thread for q1 after last night after their win and Syracuse slid 17 spots to almost q3. If Cuse loses to wake this weekend and Pitt loses to Miami, it is possible they finish 6-8 q1/2, which is a bubble record unfortunately. A first game tourney loss would likely push them to 6-9..As such, they must avoid the q3 loss and push road record to 8-3.

Psu has 7 q1/2 wins and no bad losses
Michigan has a bad loss but 9 q1/2 wins
Miss State now 8-9 q1/2
UNC also up to 7 q1/2 wins
 
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Pitt2006 said:
At one point, Pitt had a solid 8-5 record for q1/2 games. Virginia is hanging to a thread for q1 after last night after their win and Syracuse slid 17 spots to almost q3. If Cuse loses to wake this weekend and Pitt loses to Miami, it is possible they finish 6-8 q1/2, which is a bubble record unfortunately. A first game tourney loss would likely push them to 6-9..As such, they must avoid the q3 loss and push road record to 8-3.

Psu has 7 q1/2 wins and no bad losses
Michigan has a bad loss but 9 q1/2 wins
Miss State now 8-9 q1/2
UNC also up to 7 q1/2 wins
Click to expand...

PSU is 7-12, we are 7-7. You dont get credit just for losing those games. They have 3 road wins, we have 7.

UNC has 1 Q1 win.

Now, I have always defined the bubble as teams who aren't 100% guaranteed in so if we lose tonight and they picked the field tomorrow, then I'd say we would have a 95% chance so in that sense I'd agree they would be on the good side of the bubble.

If we lose 2 this week, I'd say we are 90% in.

If we lose 2 this week and lose on Wednesday in the ACCT, I'd say 70%.

If we lose 2 this week, get a double bye, and lose to Duke/NC St/UNC on Thursday, I'd say we are 85% in.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
PSU is 7-12, we are 7-7. You dont get credit just for losing those games. They have 3 road wins, we have 7.

UNC has 1 Q1 win.

Now, I have always defined the bubble as teams who aren't 100% guaranteed in so if we lose tonight and they picked the field tomorrow, then I'd say we would have a 95% chance so in that sense I'd agree they would be on the good side of the bubble.

If we lose 2 this week, I'd say we are 90% in.

If we lose 2 this week and lose on Wednesday in the ACCT, I'd say 70%.

If we lose 2 this week, get a double bye, and lose to Duke/NC St/UNC on Thursday, I'd say we are 85% in.
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Right now we are 7-7, but super close to 6-7 if Cuse falls a few more spots and 6-8 if we lose to Miami and 6-9 with acc tourney loss. We also have a quad 4 loss and possibly quad 3 if Clemson falls. Nd loss would be 2 quad 3 and 1 quad 4 that PSU and Carolina don’t have. ND was 15-5 and went to Dayton. Pitt wins tonight and I think they are in for sure. This is all hypothetical, but a reason still at 10 seed on bracket matrix.
 
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Pitt2006 said:
Right now we are 7-7, but super close to 6-7 if Cuse falls a few more spots and 6-8 if we lose to Miami and 6-9 with acc tourney loss. We also have a quad 4 loss and possibly quad 3 if Clemson falls. Nd loss would be 2 quad 3 and 1 quad 4 that PSU and Carolina don’t have. ND was 15-5 and went to Dayton. Pitt gets there tonight and I do think in for sure. This is all hypothetical.
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Pitt is the top ATS team in the country at over 70%, ND is 7th to last at under 30% and somehow the line is only 4.5. Pitt still has a lot to prove and needs to approach this game with that same frame of mind and I believe their veteran leadership will ensure that happens.

Of course, if we set our mind to it and lose by enough in Miami, we could ensure the Miami home win becomes a Q1 in the ridiculous world according to NET.

In fact the 11-0 run to win that game probably is the difference between Miami being inside the top 30. So by beating Miami, Pitt reduced the value of the win. That’s how absurd this system is.
 
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SteelBowl70 said:
Pitt is the top ATS team in the country at over 70%, ND is 7th to last at under 30% and somehow the line is only 4.5. Pitt still has a lot to prove and needs to approach this game with that same frame of mind and I believe their veteran leadership will ensure that happens.

Of course, if we set our mind to it and lose by enough in Miami, we could ensure the Miami home win becomes a Q1 in the ridiculous world according to NET.

In fact the 11-0 run to win that game probably is the difference between Miami being inside the top 30. So by beating Miami, Pitt reduced the value of the win. That’s how absurd this system is.
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Totally agree. I think they handle business tonight and this is all moot. If they don’t, it could change things quickly number wise. It’s crazy how the system had them at 8-5 a few weeks back and teetering on 6-7.
 
Pitt2006 said:
Right now we are 7-7, but super close to 6-7 if Cuse falls a few more spots and 6-8 if we lose to Miami and 6-9 with acc tourney loss. We also have a quad 4 loss and possibly quad 3 if Clemson falls. Nd loss would be 2 quad 3 and 1 quad 4 that PSU and Carolina don’t have. ND was 15-5 and went to Dayton. Pitt wins tonight and I think they are in for sure. This is all hypothetical, but a reason still at 10 seed on bracket matrix.
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If Pitt loses 3 in a row, we could end up in Dayton like ND. But they were 2-8 and 2-1 in Q1 and 2.
 
BballinsiderfromPitt said:
They’re in the tourney. Not close to the bubble. Could lose next 3 and get in
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Agree - I don't put any stock into any of the "Bracketologist" - they're guessing just like we would be guessing - screw the NET and Qwins nonsense, people who make the decisions can't overlook what they actually see. We are in regardless of the last three games.
 
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303vND said:
Agree - I don't put any stock into any of the "Bracketologist" - they're guessing just like we would be guessing - screw the NET and Qwins nonsense, people who make the decisions can't overlook what they actually see. We are in regardless of the last three games.
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I mean they’re not close to the bubble currently and they’d have to keep out multiple ACC bubble teams to keep Pitt out. No way Clemson or UNC can get in over them
 
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303vND said:
Agree - I don't put any stock into any of the "Bracketologist" - they're guessing just like we would be guessing - screw the NET and Qwins nonsense, people who make the decisions can't overlook what they actually see. We are in regardless of the last three games.
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Would like to agree, but if we end up as a 5 seed in the ACC tournament and lose vs the 12/13 seed, we leave it in the hands of the committee and stranger things have happened.
 
nycpanther98 said:
Would like to agree, but if we end up as a 5 seed in the ACC tournament and lose vs the 12/13 seed, we leave it in the hands of the committee and stranger things have happened.
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I have that fear too, but win tonight clinches at least top 2 finish. I honestly think Dayton if they go 0-3. Their road record is too strong to keep out fully, but acc weak as a whole and can see them going to Dayton if they finish 5th.
 
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nycpanther98 said:
Would like to agree, but if we end up as a 5 seed in the ACC tournament and lose vs the 12/13 seed, we leave it in the hands of the committee and stranger things have happened.
Click to expand...

Crucial to win one of these last 2. If not, that Wednesday afternoon game vs the 12/13 will be pressure packed. Lose that and there's a semi-realistic chance we dont make it.
 
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Pitt2006 said:
At one point, Pitt had a solid 8-5 record for q1/2 games. Virginia is hanging to a thread for q1 after last night after their win and Syracuse slid 17 spots to almost q3. If Cuse loses to wake this weekend and Pitt loses to Miami, it is possible they finish 6-8 q1/2, which is a bubble record unfortunately. A first game tourney loss would likely push them to 6-9..As such, they must avoid the q3 loss and push road record to 8-3.

Psu has 7 q1/2 wins and no bad losses
Michigan has a bad loss but 9 q1/2 wins
Miss State now 8-9 q1/2
UNC also up to 7 q1/2 wins
Click to expand...
Gonna go out on a limb here, umm , you seem like a worrier.
 
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BreakingPitt said:
Gonna go out on a limb here, umm , you seem like a worrier.
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It’s being objective. Look at the quad wins and losses for the bubble…Previously they were solidly in. If they win tonight, they are in for sure. Lose tonight and it can get dicey. They are a very solid team, but have had lack of opportunities for quality wins of late. The one saving grace is road record, but the overall SOS is killer.

Would you take a Pitt with six quad 1 wins and bad losses or a UNC with 7 plus quad wins and no bad losses or Michigan who destroyed us and has 9 quad 1/2 wins and no bad losses?

Lunardi update today - “one more victory - anywhere, against anyone - And Pitt locks up it’s first tourney bid since 2016.” Let’s not roll dice with 0-3. He implies we can survive a loss tonight, but would have to win at Miami or at least first acc tourney game.
 
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Pitt2006 said:
It’s being objective. Look at the quad wins and losses for the bubble…Previously they were solidly in. If they win tonight, they are in for sure. Lose tonight and it can get dicey. They are a very solid team, but have had lack of opportunities for quality wins of late. The one saving grace is road record, but the overall SOS is killer.

Would you take a Pitt with six quad 1 wins and bad losses or a UNC with 7 plus quad wins and no bad losses or Michigan who destroyed us and has 9 quad 1/2 wins and no bad losses?

Lunardi update today - “one more victory - anywhere, against anyone - And Pitt locks up it’s first tourney bid since 2016.” Let’s not roll dice with 0-3. He implies we can survive a loss tonight, but would have to win at Miami or at least first acc tourney game.
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We beat UNC twice… UNC has 1 Q1 win and it might fall to Q2. No chance they pass us unless we lose all 3 and they beat us by 30 in the ACCT.

I don’t disagree with the rest of your post but I think you are focusing too much on Q1/2 wins and not Q1/2 record. 7-7 is a lot better than 7-12. Michigan is 3-10 Q1 and 6-1 Q2… so sure it looks nicer when you group them together but look deeper and it’s not as impressive. Michigan also has a Q4 loss.
 
Pitt2006 said:
It’s being objective. Look at the quad wins and losses for the bubble…Previously they were solidly in. If they win tonight, they are in for sure. Lose tonight and it can get dicey. They are a very solid team, but have had lack of opportunities for quality wins of late. The one saving grace is road record, but the overall SOS is killer.

Would you take a Pitt with six quad 1 wins and bad losses or a UNC with 7 plus quad wins and no bad losses or Michigan who destroyed us and has 9 quad 1/2 wins and no bad losses?

Lunardi update today - “one more victory - anywhere, against anyone - And Pitt locks up it’s first tourney bid since 2016.” Let’s not roll dice with 0-3. He implies we can survive a loss tonight, but would have to win at Miami or at least first acc tourney game.
Click to expand...


I have to laugh. Did you read his analysis report?


He said a 1 seed is still on the table for Texas if they win the Big 12 regular season championship. It was just a few days ago or so Palm was on the air and said winning Power 6 regular season championships mean nothing, especially for a team like Pitt. So one guy on espn says what you do in conference is important with regards to winning a conference title. Another guy on cbs says it means nothing.



SMF know as much as these 2 guys when it comes to making brackets. A few days before the tournament when they get insider information, that's when it starts to become a little more important what they say.
 
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Pitt2006 said:
At one point, Pitt had a solid 8-5 record for q1/2 games. Virginia is hanging to a thread for q1 after last night after their win and Syracuse slid 17 spots to almost q3. If Cuse loses to wake this weekend and Pitt loses to Miami, it is possible they finish 6-8 q1/2, which is a bubble record unfortunately. A first game tourney loss would likely push them to 6-9..As such, they must avoid the q3 loss and push road record to 8-3.

Psu has 7 q1/2 wins and no bad losses
Michigan has a bad loss but 9 q1/2 wins
Miss State now 8-9 q1/2
UNC also up to 7 q1/2 wins
Click to expand...
You’re an idiot.
 
Duneaux Harm said:
You’re an idiot.
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Maybe over dramatic, but a 6-9 quad 1/2 record with quad 3 and 4 losses would be bubble and likely Dayton or out. You are living in the past when Pitt was 8-5 and cruising quad 1/2. Things are ever evolving especially with tourney play and likely bid stealers.
 
Really didn’t want to bump this thread, but to those who called me an idiot, this is why I started the thread earlier.
 
BballinsiderfromPitt said:
Right, they’re not on the bubble simply bu losing tonight
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My semantics are different I suppose. I base it on being a 9 today and on bracket matrix. I consider bubble last four byes and last 4 in. I think they may drop back down to last four byes with the margin of this loss. Had it been close that is one thing, but will likely drop NET as well.
 
Pitt2006 said:
My semantics are different I suppose. I base it on being a 9 today and on bracket matrix. I consider bubble last four byes and last 4 in. I think they may drop back down to last four byes with the margin of this loss. Had it been close that is one thing, but will likely drop NET as well.
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NET will be in the 60s tomorrow and it’s our first Q3 road loss which was one of our strengths.
 
Pitt2006 said:
My semantics are different I suppose. I base it on being a 9 today and on bracket matrix. I consider bubble last four byes and last 4 in. I think they may drop back down to last four byes with the margin of this loss. Had it been close that is one thing, but will likely drop NET as well.
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Nah they’ll drop down to a 10 here. Probably a better spot to be in, really. A loss in first round of ACC could be bad btw.
 
BballinsiderfromPitt said:
Nah they’ll drop down to a 10 here. Probably a better spot to be in, really. A loss in first round of ACC could be bad btw.
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I think they make it even with 0-3. As you’ve said, the bubble is weak and they will be 7-5 on the road even with a Miami loss. I think it saves them. Maybe not from Dayton, but I’d take a 10 or 11 non Dayton.
 
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Losing 2 in a row with a loss to Miami is going to set this team back to possibly being a bubble team. And trending poorly now if they lose 2 in a row with the possibility of losing another in the ACCT. Pitt's defense, or lack of it, is their undoing.
 
HailToPitt1985 said:
Losing 2 in a row with a loss to Miami is going to set this team back to possibly being a bubble team. And trending poorly now if they lose 2 in a row with the possibility of losing another in the ACCT. Pitt's defense, or lack of it, is their undoing.
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That and wtf happened with free throws tonight. Just like Vt, make them and a different game.
 
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