National Preseason predictions thread
- Thread starter BballinsiderfromPitt
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On paper, he is probably right. We needed Dior to be Judah Mintz to make the NCAAT. However, I thought Dior needed to be an All Frosh ACC last year + Hugley 1st or 2nd team to make it and we did without them.
The team could be bad. But there isnt much difference between 3 or 4 and 13 or 14. Even last year, we could have easily lost (or won) 3-4 more games and not even made the NIT.
We are going to need
- Carrington or Lowe to be ok
- Leggett to be a reliable scorer
- Jeffress to be much improved
- Hinson to keep scoring
- Fede to provide inside scoring.
If we could lock in the NIT today, I would take it.
Yes 1st round LOCK Judah Mintz who went to the NCAA tourney last year
Yes 1st round LOCK Judah Mintz who went to the NCAA tourney last year
I said he'd go in the 1st Round. Didnt say he was a lock. The Athletic has him going 27th.
2024 NBA Mock Draft: The prospects you need to know next season
This class may lack excitement at the moment, but there is plenty of time for players to improve over the course of the season.
theathletic.com
This mock has him as the 7th pick in the 2nd Round. Not far off
2024 2nd Round - NBA Draft Room
2nd round of the 2024 NBA Mock Draft featuring the top prospects for the 2024 NBA Draft class: LeBron (Bronny) James Jr, D.J. Wagner and more
nbadraftroom.com
You said he'd be a first round pick last year. I said he wouldn't. He wasn't. One of us was right. Convo about all time loser Mintz over. Major LI said he'd go in the 1st Round. Didnt say he was a lock. The Athletic has him going 27th.
2024 NBA Mock Draft: The prospects you need to know next season
This class may lack excitement at the moment, but there is plenty of time for players to improve over the course of the season.
This mock has him as the 7th pick in the 2nd Round. Not far off
2024 2nd Round - NBA Draft Room
2nd round of the 2024 NBA Mock Draft featuring the top prospects for the 2024 NBA Draft class: LeBron (Bronny) James Jr, D.J. Wagner and more
He didnt enter. He will be a 1st Round pick this year. Major W coming.
He's 6'5. Massive difference. I realize that shooting is hugely important but besides that, he is as good of a combo guard as there is given his size, athleticism, and ability to create for himself. I absolutely think he's late 1st Round. You've been 100% wrong on Mintz for years so you may as well keep the streak going. Absolute worst-case scenario, he's a late 2nd Rounder and gets a 2 way, where he will make a similar amount than he would in college and gets to develop his game in a better environment (G-league)
Here is every word of your 100 percent incorrect post. This year was his chance, with a weak draft, a decent freshmen year and the belief of being able to fix his herky jerky game and shot. He blew his shot. Maybe you can root for him when he is the sixth man of the Fort Wayne Ants.
The goal is the NCAA Tournament and it shouldn't take some miracle to get there. Hinson and Fede are legit ACC starters. Need more than that but Jeffress was a once ballyooed recruit. Leggett did some nice things at a fairly high lebel. Austin could be good. The frosh could be good. For me, the NIT would be a disappointment
Agree that the NCAA is in reach and that is our goal. I wouldn't call the NIT a disappointment considering where we have been. Depends on what we get out of our young guards.
Ok but I'd say the NIT is "acceptable" but I'd be disappointed if we didnt make the NCAAT. There is enough coming back and with the portal now, the expectation for any program has to be the NCAAT. There's no rebuilding any more. If you cant get it done in free agency, that's a problem.
NCAAT is still the goal. Hinson and Fede should have big years. The twins have tons of upward mobility. Jeffrey’s might never be the guy he was recruited to be, but should take a leap into a solid contributor. This core knows what it’s like to bring a team together and play as a team.
I dont want to turn this into another one of those threads, but I still believe had Capel known that there was a very good chance Dior would be expelled, he would have gone after a PG hard in the portal. The PG position will likely be a major weakness. Freshmen really cant be "plus" players anymore unless you are elite. 23 year old mid-major transfers are better.
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The guards will hold us back. Need Lowe to be reliable, in control and get us into the offense. Carrington was WAY too out of control in Spain. He threw the ball away a ton. I now the majority opinion is Carrington has a higher ceiling than Lowe, but I watched the games and Lowe plays with speed and control and would be my pick for point at this juncture.
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1) Frontcourt should be good, potentially really good. Guillermo at 7'0 230lb is great news in the preseason. Can Hinson be a potential All American? He has completely reshaped his body and should reap the reward.
2) Need 7 guys in the rotation over 100+ ORTG for a legit tournament push. We have 4 returning (Hinson, Fede, and the twins), and 2 transfers that I believe will both be over 100+ for the full season in Leggett and Austin). That's 6 on paper preseason.
3) Point Guard play is going to make or break this team. That's quite obvious. Im both optimistic and nervous with 2 talented freshmen point guards, 1 of which has never been a full time point guard anywhere in his career prior to Pitt. How well are these 2 freshmen going to shoot free throws in crunch time, an area where our guards were elite last year? How good is their ball control going to be against extended pressure and quality defenses?
4) I am concerned with this team having turnover issues.
5) I think an NCAA Tournament appearance is achievable. But everything hinges on point guard play.
2) Need 7 guys in the rotation over 100+ ORTG for a legit tournament push. We have 4 returning (Hinson, Fede, and the twins), and 2 transfers that I believe will both be over 100+ for the full season in Leggett and Austin). That's 6 on paper preseason.
3) Point Guard play is going to make or break this team. That's quite obvious. Im both optimistic and nervous with 2 talented freshmen point guards, 1 of which has never been a full time point guard anywhere in his career prior to Pitt. How well are these 2 freshmen going to shoot free throws in crunch time, an area where our guards were elite last year? How good is their ball control going to be against extended pressure and quality defenses?
4) I am concerned with this team having turnover issues.
5) I think an NCAA Tournament appearance is achievable. But everything hinges on point guard play.
Lowe is a true PG. Carrington is a scoring guard. I think Lowe will be the starter but as freshmen, I dont think he will be as good as Year 6 Nelly Cummings, which is why we needed a transfer.
There are 36 at large spots and 91 teams in the football power five, Big East, and AAC. Subtract six or seven for "major" auto bids but add in that minor conferences will grab a few non auto bid spots. So you're talking about maybe 90-95 teams competing realistically for 36 spots. It can't really be the expectation that you make it all the time or 2/3rds of college basketball would be firing their coach every couple years.
All that said, Capel does have to start making the tournament more frequently than the rough start, which you can or can't blame on Stallings to an extent you want.
If Johnson and Kante were a go what would our forecast look like? Just curious from the experts on this site.
We dont know how good Dior Johnson would have been. I was guessing Judah Mintz. So 4 ACC wins. 12-8 with. 8-12 without. Now, I still "expect" the ACC Tournament because a few points could be the difference between 12-8 and 8-12 but if.I had to make a prediction, I'd say 8-12. Just too much uncertainty at PG.
A few more
6) Both twins gained over 20lbs per Capel this offseason which is great news.
7) Capel said Hinson lost around 25lbs since the end of last season. He looks it.
8) Fede looks really muscular and in shape. And Legget has really bulked up. Jaland Lowe is listed at 6'3 170lb which is a huge change from a year ago when he was probably closer to 150lbs in the EYBL. Honestly, this looks like the best offseason we have had since Capel took over by a mile with guys actually getting into shape and bulking up.
9) Capel stressed losing Kante is a significant loss. I agree, but I think the twins are poised for a strong season.
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I see you edited your post. I was going to reply back when 1st reading it asking what a 6’3” and 140-lb Jaland Lowe looked like but you’ve edited it up to 150 lb. Even if only an additional 10 lbs, I guess that sounds a little more realistic, can’t imagine much of anyone playing effective high level HS/AAU ball at 6’ 3” and 140 lb. But I don’t follow height n weight stats of players that closely.
He was really thin in the EYBL. His build (and parts of his game) were quite similar to John Lucas III. He looked like he put some weight on during his senior season in high school but he was still quite skinny as a senior. Its really noticeable now, in fact, I made several points about this when comparing his body to Dior's some months back where Dior was the rail thin player on the team and Lowe was noticeably bigger than Dior from a bulk / muscular standpoint which was quite surprising to me.
I think 6'3 is also a generous height listing. 6'2 is more realistic.
I basically agree, but an important part of the pg situation
is HOW Capel uses his pg. If it's a pg oriented offense (which
Capel seems to prefer), then I feel we'll struggle, especially
with a true frosh at the point. Burton and Cummings were
experienced players and when they handled the point we
played a lot better than previous Capel Pitt teams (all you
have to do is remember the years with X and Odukale at
the point). I liked X's ability, but thought Capel gave him
way too much freedom, and allowed him to go one on one
which stifled the offense. Same with Odukale who didn't
have the ability.
Cummings and Burton were able to get their team mates
more involved in the flow, and had much better results. If
Lowe, or whover is at the point can be part of guard play
that doesn't result in a pg oriented offense, we could do ok.
There's an experienced off guard in Leggett, a talented frosh
in Carrington, and a question mark (at least for me) in
Hueitt, and of course Lowe who is a natural pg. They all need
to be involved out front. I'm looking forward to seeing Capel's
direction with this group of guards.
Roster Trivia, FWIW--Official Site Roster has Twins at 7-0, 220 and 6-11, 210. It also lists Hinson's height at 6-8 (vs last season's 6-7?)--doubt he added height at his age. He may have always been 6-7.5-ish? Lists Fede at 225 lbs--that is the same as last season, I believe. Carrington's height has been debated as being anywhere between 6-3 and 6-7. Site lists him as 6-5. That sounds about right.
They had Guillermo listed at 229lb. It looks like that may have been a typo and they changed it to 220lb.
The only thing that matters is the guards. Hinson and the bigs won’t get their own shots. Burton and to a lesser extent Cummings, Nike opened up things for everyone else. The front court could be the greatest thing ever and it won’t matter.
Yeah, having a good pair of centers is a bonus and helps make good things happen, but it’s not gonna win games on its own. As long as it’s not a negative, that’ll be fine. The difference in wins between neutral center play and high-level center play seems pretty negligible.
But if Carrington and Leggett are the types of players that it seems like the staff thinks they could be, then we’ll probably be pretty good again. We’ll be living on the edge trying to win tight games just like a few dozen other teams; last year a bunch of breaks went our way in close games, and it’d be great if that happens again.
what level of play from the backcourt do we need? would you take X and Trey freshman type years?
Totally agree. Burton not only had the on court talent, he also
was an experienced, mature leader. He played within himself,
was able to take his man one on one, but also involved the others
in the flow. Cummings? Somewhat similar, but occassionally would
go off the rails. The diffference last year, was that Capel could
also bring in Sibande. In other years when the pg (X or Odukale),
went off the rails there was no one else to rely on. This is where
Dior will really be missed. Lowe??....I'll as usual, wait until I see him
in real time. Carrington and Leggett have talent. The question for me
is, how will Capel use these guys. I don't want to see a pg oriented
offense like what I saw with X and Odukale. Let's see how Capel
handles this backcourt.
No. They’ll need to be much more efficient, but they should be able to with Hinson to kick out to and others to dump off to. They don’t need to put up huge numbers.
Drive, kick to Hinson, dump off, make open shots.
I agree but X and Trey had to be ball dominant and take shots .. and honestly, X wasn't terribly inefficient besides the turnovers .. which I really can't pin all of it on him. He was the only dude that could basically dribble up the court effectively and had Trey + JWF .. had big guys that couldn't catch the ball. Just a bad, bad team around those 3.
I'd be curious to see how Carrington and Lowe look on that 18-19 team. X went 15-5-4 and shot 35% from deep .. X's best year as a Panther was his first year. He basically regressed from that point on.
when I asked I more or less meant their level of play. Maybe X wouldn't tone it down and would still try to be the guy on this team .. which to be clear, isn't what this Pitt team needs. I fully agree that we just need solid play from that backcourt. Take care of the ball. Make the extra pass. Hit the open shots. Simple stuff.
I think X's Frosh year is overlooked by his last 2 years here .. he was really good as a frosh.
I think they can have something cooking with Hinson and Austin as catch and shoot guys in the corners, especially if Austin can also be the kind of threat at the rim that it seems like he can be. Austin won’t shoot it as good as Elliott did, but he just has to be good enough to be a viable spacing threat in the opposite corner to Blake.
