Next 2 games are the reason the regular season is so important

[Sean Miller Fan]

Win the next 2 games and that's roughly worth 2-3 seed lines. Its the difference between going 10-8 with a 9 seed and 5% chance to make the Sweet 16 and 12-6 with a 6 seed and a 30% chance to make the Sweet 16. It gets on my nerves when people say the regular season doesn't matter. From a statistical point of view, every regular season win you get increases the probability of advancing in the NCAAT.

The 2014 team is a perfect example
That was a 3-5 seed type of team that lost a bunch of close games to excellent teams and we ended up in the 8/9. If Ennis misses that shot, we are a 7 seed, maybe a 6.

 

[Scruffy the Panther]

What's with you assigning seed values to individual games? Sure, winning the next two games would be a huge help. But if we lose the next two games and still go 12-6 in conference, losing a couple of tough road games early would be a minor blip.

 

[IamHeisenberg]

I really think you understand nothing about statistics and probability.

 

[Zaratoughda]

If I could make the call... I would have no problem getting a W against ND and taking the night off against Ville. Then you would get a W with a night off against BC.

The thing is... GT was a very physical team that came right at you and then there was the matter of Robinson having to run around all night covering Adam Smith. So, that might just catch up with our players and better to catch up with us against Ville than against ND.

ND is not ranked as high at Ville and our team has not played a true road game. You never know what it takes to win a true road game until you win one. So, getting the W at ND would a big thing for this year's team.

Of course, if you get a W at ND then you will go for it against Ville.... but it is not something I would worry about. Pitino has had Dixon's number recently and the game is at Ville.

But, a loss at ND almost surely means you would go to 2-2 in the ACC and the team would not have won a game on the road yet.

 

[levance2]

I really think you understand nothing about statistics and probability.

Pomeroy says Pitt has 4 games less than 33% probability of winning:
the next two
@Miami
@UNC

Pitt has 6 games between 40% and 60%:
@FSU
@Clemson
UVa
@Cuse
Lou
Duke

The probable outcome of losing the next two games has absolutely no impact on how well the team can finish. If Pitt managed to sweep those toss-ups, they'd arguably be in contention to win the conference.

Personally, I would really like Pitt to beat ND because I really hate ND basketball and Mike Brey.

 

[dooz3]

If I could make the call... I would have no problem getting a W against ND and taking the night off against Ville. Then you would get a W with a night off against BC.

The thing is... GT was a very physical team that came right at you and then there was the matter of Robinson having to run around all night covering Adam Smith. So, that might just catch up with our players and better to catch up with us against Ville than against ND.

ND is not ranked as high at Ville and our team has not played a true road game. You never know what it takes to win a true road game until you win one. So, getting the W at ND would a big thing for this year's team.

Of course, if you get a W at ND then you will go for it against Ville.... but it is not something I would worry about. Pitino has had Dixon's number recently and the game is at Ville.

But, a loss at ND almost surely means you would go to 2-2 in the ACC and the team would not have won a game on the road yet.

Take the night off eh.....How big a jerk can you be?

 

[Zaratoughda]

According to teamrankings.com....

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/pittsburgh-panthers/projections

There are three games we have between 19.1 and 25.0 chance of winning... @Ville, @Miami, @UNC. Of these, IMO the Miami game is the most winnable while it is hard to say between @Ville and @UNC. Pitino has had Dixon's number in recent years and the game is @Ville, and the one time we went to UNC, they just blew us off the court (2 years ago with Patterson and Zanna).

Then there are three games, @ND, Duke and Ville at home... where we have between 44.1 and 45.0 chance of winning.

Then another three games, UVA, @FSU and @GT, where we have between 52.0 and 55.3 percent chance of winning.

The main difference here with Pomeroy... is ND. IMO they are nowhere's as difficult as the three most difficult games noted above.

AND.... the thing about Pomeroy... we passed out ND some time ago in their rankings and have been consistently ranked higher than them but then we beat a very difficult team in GT and they blew out an extremely BAD team in BC, and our ranking dropped 2 notches and their ranking jumped 10 and they are now ranked ahead of us in Pomeroy, 23 to 29.

And to me, that is absolutely ABSURD. I watched part of the ND/BC game and BC absolutely sucks. More like a HS team than a college team.

So, IMO Pomeroy should go back and take a closer look at their computer programs. Sagarin, which has us at 22 and ND at 31, seems to be more accurate. (Yeah, I won't be quoting any rankings from Pomeroy again.)

I think we are a better team than ND, but given the game is at ND and they are a very difficult team to beat at home, I think the line of ND -5 is about right.

Yeah, if Robinson and Smith have games like they had against GT, and we don't have any downers like Young only playing 18 minutes, and we play good D, IMO we have a good chance at getting the W. We will see.

 

[levance2]

So, IMO Pomeroy should go back and take a closer look at their computer programs. Sagarin, which has us at 22 and ND at 31, seems to be more accurate. (Yeah, I won't be quoting any rankings from Pomeroy again.)

I think we are a better team than ND, but given the game is at ND and they are a very difficult team to beat at home, I think the line of ND -5 is about right.

So after rambling through your anti-Pomeroy tirade, you acknowledge that a 5-point line was appropriate, which is exactly what Pomeroy calculated? Bravo, Mr. Mathematician.

 

[TFloss]

So we go 4-4 in some fashion and it's a top 4 ACC finish? Sign me up

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

So after rambling through your anti-Pomeroy tirade, you acknowledge that a 5-point line was appropriate, which is exactly what Pomeroy calculated? Bravo, Mr. Mathematician.

Sagarin had the game about even. So Pomeroy was wrong by 9 and Sagarin wrong by 4. But it is only one game and computers predict what should happen if each team has its average or typical game and single game aberrations can easily vary from the predicted result.

 

[levance2]

Sagarin had the game about even. So Pomeroy was wrong by 9 and Sagarin wrong by 4. But it is only one game and computers predict what should happen if each team has its average or typical game and single game aberrations can easily vary from the predicted result.

Exactly, so your post is pointless. Pomeroy's algorithm predicted ND -5 and is fallible. I just found it hilarious that genius Zara explained why his system is so bad, then agreed with the exact prediction it gave.

Pitt could have won or lost that game by 20, it doesn't make any statement of the validity of any prediction system.

 

[DT_PITT]

Win the next 2 games and that's roughly worth 2-3 seed lines. Its the difference between going 10-8 with a 9 seed and 5% chance to make the Sweet 16 and 12-6 with a 6 seed and a 30% chance to make the Sweet 16. It gets on my nerves when people say the regular season doesn't matter. From a statistical point of view, every regular season win you get increases the probability of advancing in the NCAAT.

The 2014 team is a perfect example
That was a 3-5 seed type of team that lost a bunch of close games to excellent teams and we ended up in the 8/9. If Ennis misses that shot, we are a 7 seed, maybe a 6.

You certainly are a fan of drama, aren't you?

 

[DT_PITT]

According to teamrankings.com....

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/pittsburgh-panthers/projections

There are three games we have between 19.1 and 25.0 chance of winning... @Ville, @Miami, @UNC. Of these, IMO the Miami game is the most winnable while it is hard to say between @Ville and @UNC. Pitino has had Dixon's number in recent years and the game is @Ville, and the one time we went to UNC, they just blew us off the court (2 years ago with Patterson and Zanna).

Then there are three games, @ND, Duke and Ville at home... where we have between 44.1 and 45.0 chance of winning.

Then another three games, UVA, @FSU and @GT, where we have between 52.0 and 55.3 percent chance of winning.

The main difference here with Pomeroy... is ND. IMO they are nowhere's as difficult as the three most difficult games noted above.

AND.... the thing about Pomeroy... we passed out ND some time ago in their rankings and have been consistently ranked higher than them but then we beat a very difficult team in GT and they blew out an extremely BAD team in BC, and our ranking dropped 2 notches and their ranking jumped 10 and they are now ranked ahead of us in Pomeroy, 23 to 29.

And to me, that is absolutely ABSURD. I watched part of the ND/BC game and BC absolutely sucks. More like a HS team than a college team.

So, IMO Pomeroy should go back and take a closer look at their computer programs. Sagarin, which has us at 22 and ND at 31, seems to be more accurate. (Yeah, I won't be quoting any rankings from Pomeroy again.)

I think we are a better team than ND, but given the game is at ND and they are a very difficult team to beat at home, I think the line of ND -5 is about right.

Yeah, if Robinson and Smith have games like they had against GT, and we don't have any downers like Young only playing 18 minutes, and we play good D, IMO we have a good chance at getting the W. We will see.

Huh?

 

[PittMan 72]

You certainly are a fan of drama, aren't you?

More like a fan of BS.

 

[BFo8]

Way too early to even consider any of this. A team can be dominant all season, but if they lose their last 2 and in the first round of the conference tournament you can almost guarantee their seeding will drop more than it realistically should.

As long as you avoid that 8-9 game it doesn't matter all that much.

 

[Fredact]

From a statistical point of view, every regular season win you get increases the probability of advancing in the NCAAT.

Absolutely agree. That's why I love college basketball, the regular season games matter more than any other sport. Each win provides an increase in the teams probability of winning the the national championship. Even for teams down in the standings or in one of the lessor conference, each win is likely to get you a higher seed in the conference tournament, which increases your chance of winning.

Compare that to college football--after Pitt lost it's second game, every other game was meaningless, as they then had zero chance of playing for the national championship.

 

[Zaratoughda]

Exactly, so your post is pointless. Pomeroy's algorithm predicted ND -5 and is fallible. I just found it hilarious that genius Zara explained why his system is so bad, then agreed with the exact prediction it gave.

Pitt could have won or lost that game by 20, it doesn't make any statement of the validity of any prediction system.

Took you off ignore yesterday Levance but... just put you back on... just so I don't have to read your worthless posts.

 

[dooz3]

Took you off ignore yesterday Levance but... just put you back on... just so I don't have to read your worthless posts.

Congrats levance... You ticked off a major Pitt hating loser

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Compare that to college football--after Pitt lost it's second game, every other game was meaningless, as they then had zero chance of playing for the national championship.

There are lots of college basketball teams that don't play even one meaningful game until their conference tournament in March. In fact more of them that there are teams that play D1A football.

 

[Fredact]

There are lots of college basketball teams that don't play even one meaningful game until their conference tournament in March. In fact more of them that there are teams that play D1A football.

I define "meaningful" as having an impact on your chances of winning the championship. Each game Robert Morris plays in conference impacts their seeding in the NEC, which has an impact on their chances of winning the NEC tournament, which if they don't win they have zero chance of winning the National Championship.

I'll concede though, that Robert Morris's ooc games are not "meaningful", as they have zero chance for an at large bid. But every conference game is meaningful for every team with minor exceptions (the Ivy League, if out of contention for the title, and the team has no at large shot; some conferences don't invite all teams to their tournaments, so once a team is mathematically eliminated for the conference tournament their games become meaningless to them).

 

[levance2]

Took you off ignore yesterday Levance but... just put you back on... just so I don't have to read your worthless posts.

If you have me on ignore, I must be doing something right. As factually incorrect or nonsensical as most of your posts are, I put nobody on this forum on ignore.