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Need 11 ACC wins to have a good shot of getting in, depending on what the bubble looks like and bid stealers. 12-8 is a guaranteed lock. So Need 7 or 8 more.
UNC
UVa
Miami
GT
Syr
BC
All at home. All HEAVY favorires besides UNC where we'll be a 4-5 point favorite.
Need to win those 6 and get 1 or 2 on the road. In order of difficultly according to ESPN.
ND 58%
NC State 56%
Wake 52%
SMU 45%
Lou 37%
UNC 29%
There has to be like a 90% chance we win 1 of those and like an 75% chance that we win 2.
Being optimistic, I see 5 home wins and 1 road win left. That's 6 more wins total for those of you in Rio Linda. We need 9 more wins total, not including the ACCT, to feel safely in the NCAAT. Where will the 3 wins we need come from? Hoping for a few upsets on the road somewhere.
Road wins are just not easy. Look what we almost did today against a bad 'Cuse team.
Road wins are just not easy. Look what we almost did today against a bad 'Cuse team.
Exactly. We let the tournament slip through our fingers not protecting home court. I’m assuming we lose to UNC. So Ville, Clemson, UNC.
And we led with 3:00 to go in both the Ville & Clemson games
2-3 vs this group would be the minimum (I think) to maintain Pitt's last 4 in status
I dont know how many times I have to tell you this but we absolutely do not need to go 13-7 just to make it to Dayton. We would have made it last year at 12-8 if there weren't 4 bid stealers and teams like Miss St, Texas A&M, Colorado, and others didn't make deep runs to get in. And last year, our non-con was terrible. 343 non-con SOS and 0 good wins. This year, the non-con is 53 and we have 2 really good wins and 1 ok win.
Here's the thing that people who don't understand college basketball don't understand and it's why Yinzers are down on this team: the NCAAT doesn't pick the best teams. They generally pick who had good Novembers and didn't mess up too bad in conference. November basketball means more than anything and Pitt was good in November.
12-8 is a 100% lock and probably not even Dayton. 11-9 is like a 75% chance to get in.
Win both home games with UNC and Virginia and go 1-2 on the road at UNC, Wake, and SMU in the next 5 and they will still be in pretty good shape. That would put them at 16-8 overall and 7-6 in the conference going into mid February as Pitt approaches the weaker part of the schedule.
Yeah, we're the opposite of last year's team. We have almost no chance to do any damage in the tournament this year, but we may very likely get in based in large part on the first month and a half. Last year, you could argue we were a top 20ish team for the last two months of the season, but November/December losses helped to keep us out.
I think they win at least one of those road games at UNC, Wake and SMU. And to be honest with you if this is a tournament team they should at least win one of those games. Can’t go 0-3 in those games. Gotta get at least one which I don’t think is asking too much. Wake and SMU are having good seasons but they aren’t world beaters either. SMU is probably the best chance at a road win. They lost to Louisville at home by 25 last week and barely got by Virginia a few back so I think out of all 3 that’s the one they should be able to win.
NET dropped again to 36 which is barely better than last year’s final rating of 40. Even if they lose some of these road games, they need to be competitive.
Yea Pitt’s NET has dropped about 20 spots since the start of the year which is something you didn’t wanna see as we move into February but that’s where it’s at and probably where it deserves to be. I’m with you not only do they need to win some of the upcoming games they better at least be competitive in all of them. They can’t afford another Duke Miss St type road loss where they get their doors blown off.
I think it was you that said that we are last year's Clemson. And that's true. They went 11-9 and got a 6 seed due to their work in November. It wasn't a month and a half for us like you said. We had a 2 week stretch where we beat Dream Team 3 (WVU), LSU, and OSU. That is enough....if we win the rest of the games we are supposed to. We could finish the season with 0 Q3/4 losses and a few good wins. That's enough.
And yea, last year's team was WAY better. Could have made the Final Four with the right matchups. This year's team isn't really that good but we had a good 2 weeks in November and that's all the committee cares about.
3-2. Then some really easy wins at the end of the schedule, it's hard to describe how bad Miami and BC are. We are in.
So in your optimistic scenario, we lose 3 of 4 @ Wake, SMU, BC, and NCST? 2 of those teams suck out loud, and none of them are good.
You're basically putting our tournament odds at 0% in the best case. Why are you so much more pessimistic than every metric I'm aware of?
I think we go 3-1 there, and probably win 1 of the other games you've written off. If you want me to be even slightly optimistic, we beat all 4 of those teams and there's your 3 missing wins.
Did you see Pitt play yesterday against a bad 'Cuse team? We almost lost. No road game is easy. @NCSt. will be the same. Yes, Pitt can beat them if they're running on all cylinders. But they haven't done that lately. @Wake and @SMU will be extremely difficult. If we're lucky and those teams are off their games, we could pull off a win in maybe one of them. I don't see it, though.
I'm glad that you're so optimistic. I can't be after watching Pitt basketball for the past 60 years. I've seen this movie before. The bottom line is we need 9 more wins in the regular season to be a guarantee for the NCAAT. If they do that, it will be Capel's finest coaching performance.
This is what I'm seeing right now for Pitt for the rest of the year:
UNC - L
@Wake - L
UVA - W
@UNC - L
@SMU - L
MIA - W
'Cuse - W
@ND - L
GT - W
@'Ville - L
@NCSt. - W
BC - W
That's 6 wins, 6 losses. If we even go with a W against UNC this Tuesday, that's 7 wins. Where are the other 2 wins coming from? Maybe @ND??? How about @UNC??? Not much room for error. We're going to have to win all of the games that have a W next to them then pull off a few upsets.
I wish I were more optimistic. I'm looking at the bigger pictures, not metrics or some bracketology. Pitt is not playing well. They haven't put together a complete game for a while. That's what it will take to get to 9 more wins in the regular season.
UNC - L
@Wake - L
UVA - W
@UNC - L
@SMU - L
MIA - W
'Cuse - W
@ND - L
GT - W
@'Ville - L
@NCSt. - W
BC - W
That's 6 wins, 6 losses. If we even go with a W against UNC this Tuesday, that's 7 wins. Where are the other 2 wins coming from? Maybe @ND??? How about @UNC??? Not much room for error. We're going to have to win all of the games that have a W next to them then pull off a few upsets.
I wish I were more optimistic. I'm looking at the bigger pictures, not metrics or some bracketology. Pitt is not playing well. They haven't put together a complete game for a while. That's what it will take to get to 9 more wins in the regular season.
11 conference wins + 1 ACC tournament win and we are in the Dance.
12 conference wins and we are in the Dance.
As of right now... This. Still holding out hope they find some consistency shooting from deep. Winning yesterday was huge.
No matter how many times you say it, we almost certainly do not need 9 more regular season wins to make the tournament.
To be relatively guaranteed a spot in the NCAAT, yes that's what it will take. It's possible we get in with 8 more regular season wins, but that is tenuous at best. To get in and be very comfortable about it, we need 9 regular season wins.
But this is just my opinion. I'm sure it will be attacked, as you did, because that's how Pitt fans are. I'm just being realistic.
You aren't being realistic, you are being foolish.
And it's not an attack when someone posts something dumb to say "hey, that's kind of dumb." It's simply the truth.
LOL! OK, like I said. Pitt fans are just like this. They attack when someone's opinion differs from theirs. I know you missed this, but I was posting an opinion. It isn't the truth because it hasn't happened yet, just as your opinion isn't the truth because it hasn't happened yet.
You aren't the judge about whether something posted is foolish or dumb. You have no room to talk about foolish, dumb posts.
So if you post that tomorrow we should expect the sun to rise in the west and set in the east, if someone says hey, that's kind of dumb, that's not what's going to happen, you would simply shrug it off because it's your opinion and no one can know the truth yet because it hasn't happened?
You are entitled to your opinion. Other people are entitled to point out when you opinion make no sense. This is one of those times. And it's not just me judging that. You've had plenty of other people tell you the same thing. Pretty much no one has stepped up and said that you are right.
Because you aren't.
The good thing is...most of the really "easy" teams we got at home which increases the likelihood of avoiding a bad loss.
Basketball games aren't repeatable science. This is just stupid. Can you with 100% certainty predict the score of the Pitt-UNC game? NO, you can't. There is no reasoning with people like you. I don't know what happened, but I had you on Ignore because of your idiocy, and now you're showing up again. Have to get you back on Ignore.
There are a lot of people who happen to agree with me, BTW. People like you are the only ones who would disagree.
You have Pitt losing every single remotely difficult game for the rest of the season.
I'm disappointed with how they've played for the last few weeks too, but you aren't being realistic. If you were, you could find a single professional source that agrees with you.
