Right. If it's "optimistic" to claim we're going to beat a bad team, then we're the worst team in the conference.
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We almost lost to 'Cuse. If a team can hit 3's, they have a really good chance of beating us because we have abysmal defense against the 3's. And it's at ND, road games are always a concern for us.
We are going to lose to ND. I think we win the 6 home games and go 1-5 on the road, beating NC St. That gets us to 11-9. Need 1 more to feel absolutely safe.
Torvik has us at 12-8, with ND and Wake being tossups that he must expect us to split. The only remotely competitive home game we have per his projections is UNC, which we are projected to win.
It is optimistic to expect us to win both the tossups on the road, but I think we either do that or pull out a win somewhere else (@SMU seeming to be the most likely option) which is why I think we get to 3-3 in our remaining road games.
College basketball seasons are filled with upsets. I hope we do win the 6 home games we have. We certainly need to do that if we have any hope of getting into the NCAAT. That's a minimum.
We'll need a couple of upsets on the road, IMHO, to make it comfortably and guaranteed. We'll need 3 wins on the road plus the 6 home wins, with one of the road wins being either @SMU or @Wake or @'Ville. I'm saying 13-8 in the ACC gets us in guaranteed.
I'm not saying Notre Dame couldn't upset Pitt, but it would be an upset. We will be favored that game, where you wrote it off as not only a loss but such a long shot you included two question marks, as if it'd be shocking if Pitt could beat the mighty 9-10 Irish.
Of course ND beating Pitt would be an upset. Just like UNC beating Pitt tomorrow night would be an upset. I'm sorry if this offends some on here, but I haven't seen Pitt play consistent, strong defense or rebound well enough to win much except against the bottom of the league. The way they play defense and rebound means they could be beaten by just about anybody. If they shore up those 2 areas, it's a different story. Hell, Pitt could win 11 more games the rest of the year if that happened.
A very minor upset. ESPN gives Pitt a 56% chance to win. We'll probably be a 2-3 point favorite. Their 3 point shooting is ridiculous. 48%, 46%, 40%, 37%. We better score 80+
Pitt will need to score 80+ against most of the remaining teams to be able to beat them. Our defense won't help us.
0/1 on your predictions so far, which gives us 1 of the 9 wins we supposedly need (we don't) to make it into March Madness. I think we get them anyway.
Torvik still has us going 12-8 overall in conference, which will absolutely get us in, and we're favored in every game other than @UNC, @SMU, and @Ville. I assume his season projections still have us splitting @ND and @Wake since they're tossups, since we'd go 8-3 looking at each game individually.
This guy both already counted UNC as a loss while also saying it'd be an upset if UNC beat Pitt.
He asked "where could the wins come from, Notre Dame??", which he also counted as a loss while later saying Pitt will be favored in that game.
Not a serious use of logic. Pitts wins will likely come from the games they are favored in, which is most of them the rest of the way.
It's one game and they still need 8 more wins to be guaranteed to get into the NCAAT. There will be a game or 2 along the way that we lose that we shouldn't. It happens every year. Win every home game and steal 2 wins on the road is what it will take. And none of those road games are guaranteed wins for Pitt. NCSt is the best possibility. But we need at least 1 more after that.
Let's let the season play out. Pitt was very fortunate last night that UNC was so generous with giving the ball away. Our low turnovers and UNC's high turnover rate coupled with our conversions off turnovers won that game. That and us deciding to play defense for the last 5 or 6 minutes of the second half. The zone helped.
This is hilarious. So now, Pitt needs to either go 14-6 to make the NCAAT or 13-7 + 1 in the ACCT. Buddy, 12-8 and we are a lock, probably not even Dayton.
LOL! Being favored in a game has nothing to do with whether they will win that game. Road games, even against the bottom of the league, are tough for any team except maybe Duke or 'Ville. Even they can have issues. So no matter the odds and being favored in most of them, which is what you claim, it doesn't matter. Pitt had to stage a furious comeback last night to beat a middle of the pack UNC team. On our home court. You probably weren't even at the game last night.
Believe what you want. I'll do the same. And knowing that Pitt fans like you are just looking for something to attack other posters with is all I need to know about you.
Yes, it's one game that you managed to predict Pitt would lose while also shitting on UNC so it wouldn't be a positive if Pitt beat them.
We don't need to "steal" wins in anyone's mind but yours, because Pitt is predicted to win more than enough games to get into the NCAAT without getting an upset.
I am letting the season play out. I am fully aware they could sleepwalk their way through nearly every road game remaining, or worse one of the home games against the conference dregs we have coming up, and tank their chances of making it to the tournament. But it's not unreasonably optimistic to expect them to play as they're projected to play or understand what their tournament chances are if those results actually occur.
In fact, it's unreasonably pessimistic to insist that expecting them to underperform those projections is an optimistic outlook and the likely result is even worse than that.
Do you know how to count? I'll say this slowly so even you understand. We currently have 5 wins in the ACC, 14 wins overall. If we get 8 more wins in the regular season, which is what will be needed to get to the NCAAT. we will be 13-7 in the league. 5+8=13. You know, that math that they don't teach in school anymore. That's 8 more wins and 3 more losses in the league, 22-9 overall. That gets us in even without a win in the ACCT. Of course, this depends on who the wins and losses are against. A bad loss against BC or UVA would mean we have to win @'Ville or @UNC or @Wake. Not all 3. Try and understand the meaning of the word "or".
Now that your little gotcha has been debunked, like everything else you and many others on here post, go take your nap. Some Pitt fans are just not worth it.
Nothing I posted is unrealistic. What's your problem? You and SMF are in the same boat, apparently. And neither of you probably even go to games. I'd be very surprised if you did. I hear a lot of Pitt "fans" on here who say they go to the games and they haven't been to one in years.
What’s the site out there that has the tournament probability broken down by each teams win total?
Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total
| Total Wins | NCAA Bid% |
|---|---|
| 28 | 100.0% |
| 27 | 100.0% |
| 26 | 100.0% |
| 25 | 99.9% |
| 24 | 99.7% |
| 23 | 98.6% |
| 22 | 93.1% |
| 21 | 75.2% |
| 20 | 36.9% |
| 19 | 7.1% |
| 18 | 0.4% |
| OVERALL | 87.5% |
Bracketology 2025: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament
NCAA bracketology for 2025 from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.com. Our algorithmic models project all 364 NCAA teams and update daily.
www.teamrankings.com
Notice how the odds of making the field drop dramatically after 22 wins. That's the magic number for us. 8 more total wins.
You are the guy that’s always looking for a black cloud.
Bracketology 2025: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament
NCAA bracketology for 2025 from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.com. Our algorithmic models project all 364 NCAA teams and update daily.
Notice how the odds of making the field drop dramatically after 22 wins. That's the magic number for us. 8 more total wins.
That has us 12th from the cut line at 13-7. But if we lose 1 more game to go 12-8, we fall 12 spots? No.
Once again, you claimed that going 10-10 is an optimistic prediction. Not that it's possible for the team to go 10-10 (obviously it is), but that a worse outcome than that is the most likely one. That's why I (and others) have been giving you a hard time on this thread.
You also claimed that odds don't matter, which at least partially explains why you think someone has to be optimistic to believe the team will finish 10-10 in conference, why you keep saying that Pitt needs to upset teams they're favored to beat, and why you don't understand that anyone with a clue would think your predictions are ridiculous.
For whatever it's worth, I don't live anywhere near Pittsburgh so I don't make it to nearly as many games as I'd like but I watch literally all of them. What's more relevant than that for this discussion is that I understand how statistical metrics and probabilities work so I don't make nonsensical comments when discussing my alma mater's teams.
We have to get to 22 wins total, excluding the ACCT. Not a lot of wiggle room. If we beat Wake, I think our odds of making it go up significantly, assuming no letdown the rest of the way or a bad loss.
Don’t be such a snowflake. People disagreeing with your opinion isn’t an attack.
I think 20 wins might get it done. The strength of schedule is really, really high.
I was at the game and posted about the atmosphere from it. My dad and I have had season tickets, with a few exceptions, since around 1984. I will say Carl Krauser is much more up on the team than you are but he had a lot more to drink last night probably. My tickets are in 119 Row A if you want to come say hi. They're not the best seats in the house but it's nice to have no one in front of you.
The part in bold is why you're being absurd. If you are favored in 8 of 11 games, it doesn't mean you'll exactly win those eight and lose the other three. Maybe you drop an easy one and pull off an upset. That's fine, this team is projecting in EVEN BEFORE LAST NIGHT in 84 of 86 brackets in BracketMatrix and you seem to HATE that about them. Maybe you'd be happier if they lost more.
Congrats on having season's tickets since 1984. I've been doing that in a similar fashion, but from the 60's and 70's. I guess I've seen too much college basketball to knows odds are for entertainment only. I watch the game and the team and see defensive and rebounding deficiencies that need corrected. Hopefully, the second half last night was at least an indication of how we can play defense if we want to. Rebounding has to improve. Our points converted from their turnovers overcame that.
I absolutely don't hate that Pitt is projected in a lot of brackets. All I'm saying is we have a long way to go to be confident....8 more wins to go, to be exact. Happier if they lost more? Many on here think that but not me. You are completely misinterpreting what I'm saying. That's OK. I'm saying play it one game at a time ONLY and let the rest take care of itself. We need to win @ Wake first. Then on to the nest game.
BTW, we're in 107. Maybe I will come over sometime and say Hi.
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21 with a really high NET ranking, especially winning one of: @Wake, @UNC, @SMU or @ Lville should be enough.
And I think we could get a win or two in the tournament. Obviously none guaranteed But there are still multiple paths at this point
I think one win is the tourney ceiling. Unfortunately we’ll 90% likely be playing in a 8/9 or 7/10 game so next round vs the 1 or the 2 seed.
But they didnt lose. Its like saying, but they almost beat both Louisville and Clemson. But they didnt beat them
So Pitt was fortunate for the TOs? I bet if Pitt had those same TO's and UNC scored off of them you would not state the UNC was fortunate. You would bash them unmercifully. It doesnt matter whether its Pitt football or basketball, its own fans will dismiss every good thing, and instead, destroy them on the bad. And you people wonder why Pitt doesnt have many fans. Too funny.
A lot of snowflakes on here apparently. Another one to Ignore.
I don't wonder why Pitt doesn't have more fans when people like you are calling yourselves fans. You come and go as the wind blows. Goodbye.
You've said at least 500 times on this board that "you're done with Pitt football/basketball". Being dumb is one thing, but being a dumb hypocrite is another, ya grumpy grammy.
There is nothing funnier than someone calling other people snowflakes while stating that you are going to put them on ignore because you can't handle that they disagree with you.
I mean do you not really understand that you are pretty much the definition of a snowflake?
