Consider the following:
Here’s really the question: When you follow the $$$, what actually makes sense?
1. B1G & SEC will be hard pressed to find another program —beyond Notre Dame— that will bring $70m-$80m/year for more than 16 teams.
If the B1G is looking at $80 million per team per year and the SEC in the same ballpark, then what teams can the SEC or B1G add to their lineup, who will break even or add more $$$$$ to the speculated approximately $80m/team x (16 + n) the B1G & SEC are claiming?
I really can’t think of any beyond Notre Dame.
Maybe Clemson (?), since they’ve built their brand big time over the last decade. Also, expanded their fan base nationally, in the process. Even still, that’s a lot of $$$$$!
Keep in mind, there’s still Washington and Oregon out there. Will they bring $80 million-plus to B1G or will it reduce the pay-per-team for the B1G schools and USC + UCLA?
There’s A LOT MORE to this than most fans think: “Oh, the B1G will just add Oregon & Washington…” or “The SEC wants to add Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, & Virginia Tech… the ACC is DONE FOR… DONE!”
Will they or will it cost the other schools $$$ to add 2+ schools to their conference membership?
The value has to be at least equal to what the current members already make and probably more to go through the hassle of expanding.
Would it make sense for Disney/ESPN to shift 4 teams from ACC to SEC and pay each of the $80 million per year, plus the additional $15-20 million for the other 16 SEC teams to make the payout per team $80 million/year?
That’s a pretty steep and costly price (from the network’s position that is paying these contracts).
At $80 million/team, we’re talking $160 million per year for just 2 schools and $320 million per year for 4 more schools.
That doesn’t even include the payout per team for the existing 16 members of B1G or SEC. If they are going to get $80 million per school (over say, the current $60 million per team pay out), that’s an additional $320 million; so almost half a billion ($480 million annually for 2 additional teams) to 2/3’s ($640 million for 4 additional teams) a billion per year!
At $35 million per school, for 14 schools, the ACC is getting under half a billion right now ($490 million per year).
That means Disney/ABC/ESPN would have to be willing to give up the media rights to 10-12 schools from the ACC (and all the live programming & content that comes with it), just to swap 2 schools —they already have the media rights to— over to the SEC.
That doesn’t sound like a savvy business decision and smart financial move at all.
In fact, the B1G adding USC & UCLA, looks more like a Fox business decision to trim the fat out of the Pac-12 that was costing them $$$. The bonus, is to pitch Notre Dame on joining with those additions, then perhaps getting a Stanford, Oregon, or Washington with them.
For the reasons mentioned, the numbers just don’t add up for adding any school to the SEC or B1G beyond Notre Dame and MAYBE Clemson. A lot of this is just fans reading articles released in the media and panicking for their school or conference’s position in the college 🏈 world.
I didn’t crunch any numbers but it might be worth it to expand the ACC by a little and give them all a pay bump for it, plus adjusting for inflation. (It’ll be FAR CHEAPER for Disney/ESPN to do that, then pay mountains of $$$$ to destroy their ACC product to add them to their SEC product.)
Which leads me to my next point…
2. The more I think about it, the more it looks to me that it will be a major 3 conferences with the ACC expanding to 16+ (B1G, SEC, & ACC; at least until the GoR expires for the ACC in 2035-2036).
As aforementioned, I can’t see the sense in Disney/ABC/ESPN sabotaging their own product (ACC) and sending current ACC members to the SEC. It would destabilize their ACC product for Fox to poach them of sports properties that they’re underpaying a bit for right now. That wouldn’t make business and $$$ sense from Disney’s side.
Also, from Disney/ABC/ESPN angle: Will they just sit back and have Fox poach them of valuable college 🏈 properties (to the B1G)?
This is why the SEC hasn’t and probably isn’t going after ACC schools. ESPN benefits the most from their ACC product that they provide, and they don’t want to allow that product to be damaged putting their primary rival network at advantage over them.
Also, probably (well) over half of the ACC, including Notre Dame would have to want out of the existing GoR agreement, in order to have any legitimate claim to render the GoR contract even partially null, as it would no longer be in the majority of the ACC member schools interest to be held to the contract.
Yet, it is still a solid contract they signed onto with the Grant of Rights, so some of it will be honored no matter what. Even if schools go through a drawn-out legal process and find a way to leave, they can’t get completely out of it financially speaking. They’ll have to pay the schools when they leave. The objective was to protect the schools that didn’t get picked up by another conference from those that are leaving. This GoR contract achieves that objective, just as it was designed to do. That GoR is going to be very difficult to get around.
Since it’s truly about 🏈, I don’t see how Duke and especially Wake Forest (who really provide dead weight for 🏈 audience & $$$) provide much of anything (for any conference, including the ACC). Even when they have good 🏈 seasons, the average college 🏈 fan just doesn’t watch them.
Given this, if the trend is for 3 super conferences going forward for the next decade, it only makes sense for the next point…
Here’s really the question: When you follow the $$$, what actually makes sense?
1. B1G & SEC will be hard pressed to find another program —beyond Notre Dame— that will bring $70m-$80m/year for more than 16 teams.
If the B1G is looking at $80 million per team per year and the SEC in the same ballpark, then what teams can the SEC or B1G add to their lineup, who will break even or add more $$$$$ to the speculated approximately $80m/team x (16 + n) the B1G & SEC are claiming?
I really can’t think of any beyond Notre Dame.
Maybe Clemson (?), since they’ve built their brand big time over the last decade. Also, expanded their fan base nationally, in the process. Even still, that’s a lot of $$$$$!
Keep in mind, there’s still Washington and Oregon out there. Will they bring $80 million-plus to B1G or will it reduce the pay-per-team for the B1G schools and USC + UCLA?
There’s A LOT MORE to this than most fans think: “Oh, the B1G will just add Oregon & Washington…” or “The SEC wants to add Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, & Virginia Tech… the ACC is DONE FOR… DONE!”
Will they or will it cost the other schools $$$ to add 2+ schools to their conference membership?
The value has to be at least equal to what the current members already make and probably more to go through the hassle of expanding.
Would it make sense for Disney/ESPN to shift 4 teams from ACC to SEC and pay each of the $80 million per year, plus the additional $15-20 million for the other 16 SEC teams to make the payout per team $80 million/year?
That’s a pretty steep and costly price (from the network’s position that is paying these contracts).
At $80 million/team, we’re talking $160 million per year for just 2 schools and $320 million per year for 4 more schools.
That doesn’t even include the payout per team for the existing 16 members of B1G or SEC. If they are going to get $80 million per school (over say, the current $60 million per team pay out), that’s an additional $320 million; so almost half a billion ($480 million annually for 2 additional teams) to 2/3’s ($640 million for 4 additional teams) a billion per year!
At $35 million per school, for 14 schools, the ACC is getting under half a billion right now ($490 million per year).
That means Disney/ABC/ESPN would have to be willing to give up the media rights to 10-12 schools from the ACC (and all the live programming & content that comes with it), just to swap 2 schools —they already have the media rights to— over to the SEC.
That doesn’t sound like a savvy business decision and smart financial move at all.
In fact, the B1G adding USC & UCLA, looks more like a Fox business decision to trim the fat out of the Pac-12 that was costing them $$$. The bonus, is to pitch Notre Dame on joining with those additions, then perhaps getting a Stanford, Oregon, or Washington with them.
For the reasons mentioned, the numbers just don’t add up for adding any school to the SEC or B1G beyond Notre Dame and MAYBE Clemson. A lot of this is just fans reading articles released in the media and panicking for their school or conference’s position in the college 🏈 world.
I didn’t crunch any numbers but it might be worth it to expand the ACC by a little and give them all a pay bump for it, plus adjusting for inflation. (It’ll be FAR CHEAPER for Disney/ESPN to do that, then pay mountains of $$$$ to destroy their ACC product to add them to their SEC product.)
Which leads me to my next point…
2. The more I think about it, the more it looks to me that it will be a major 3 conferences with the ACC expanding to 16+ (B1G, SEC, & ACC; at least until the GoR expires for the ACC in 2035-2036).
As aforementioned, I can’t see the sense in Disney/ABC/ESPN sabotaging their own product (ACC) and sending current ACC members to the SEC. It would destabilize their ACC product for Fox to poach them of sports properties that they’re underpaying a bit for right now. That wouldn’t make business and $$$ sense from Disney’s side.
Also, from Disney/ABC/ESPN angle: Will they just sit back and have Fox poach them of valuable college 🏈 properties (to the B1G)?
This is why the SEC hasn’t and probably isn’t going after ACC schools. ESPN benefits the most from their ACC product that they provide, and they don’t want to allow that product to be damaged putting their primary rival network at advantage over them.
Also, probably (well) over half of the ACC, including Notre Dame would have to want out of the existing GoR agreement, in order to have any legitimate claim to render the GoR contract even partially null, as it would no longer be in the majority of the ACC member schools interest to be held to the contract.
Yet, it is still a solid contract they signed onto with the Grant of Rights, so some of it will be honored no matter what. Even if schools go through a drawn-out legal process and find a way to leave, they can’t get completely out of it financially speaking. They’ll have to pay the schools when they leave. The objective was to protect the schools that didn’t get picked up by another conference from those that are leaving. This GoR contract achieves that objective, just as it was designed to do. That GoR is going to be very difficult to get around.
Since it’s truly about 🏈, I don’t see how Duke and especially Wake Forest (who really provide dead weight for 🏈 audience & $$$) provide much of anything (for any conference, including the ACC). Even when they have good 🏈 seasons, the average college 🏈 fan just doesn’t watch them.
Given this, if the trend is for 3 super conferences going forward for the next decade, it only makes sense for the next point…
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